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Extension to ACCELERATES: Climate Change Impacts and Responses on the United Kingdom Executive Summary The overall aim of this project was to assess the vulnerability of European agroecosystems to environmental change in support of the conventions of climate change and biological diversity. This was achieved through the assessment of: the rate, extent and dynamics of agricultural land use change arising from climate, policy and socio-economic pressures; the impact of agricultural land use and climate change on biodiversity the vulnerability of agroecosystems in terms of both their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to change. The project was undertaken at the scale of the European Union, and within the UK case study region in parallel with ACCELERATES. The Europeanscale work assessed the change in agroecosystems and the impact of this on the distribution of natural habitats and species. This assessment was undertaken through the further development and coupling of existing models of land use change and species’ distribution within the framework of a GIS. The model runs were driven by scenarios of plausible, future changes in the climatic and socio-economic baselines (Chapter 2). Environmental change scenarios for the time-slices 2020, 2050 and 2080 were used. These scenarios included estimates not only of changes in the climate, but also estimates of possible future changes in socio-economics, and where possible were directly linked to the climate change scenarios through the common societal and political assumptions that underpin each scenario. The scenarios prioritised for application with the species and agricultural land use models were: two GCM (HadCM3 and PCM), two SRES (A2 and B1) and three timeslices (2011-2020, 2041-2050 and 2071-2080). For the agricultural modelling a period of 10 years before the target years of 2020, 2050 and 2080 was chosen to reflect that farmers’ decisions are based on previous experience with weather. In addition to the ACCELERATES scenarios, four of the UKCIP02 scenarios were applied at the national scale to enable the results to be compared with related UKCIP projects. The Low and High Emissions scenarios were used for the 2020s and 2050s time-slices; these correspond to the B1 and A1FI SRES scenarios, respectively, used with the ACCELERATES scenarios. European socio-economic scenarios (SES) have been produced by ATEAM and ACCELERATES to nest within the SRES and these are used to drive land use. The regional case study in East Anglia allowed a more detailed analysis of the specific issues and processes affecting land use dynamics and species at a local level, notably, species dispersal within fragmented landscapes. The impacts and vulnerability of agroecosystems were examined using two modelling approaches. An existing model, Spatial Estimator of the Climate Impact on the Envelope of Species (SPECIES) formed the basis for the simulation of the impacts of climate change on terrestrial species. The modelling methodology is described in Chapter 3. The different scales used in this project led to the use of different models and inputs, as at the macroscale climate is thought to be the most important factor affecting species’ distribution, while at the regional scale, factors like habitat availability, as reflected in land cover, also are relevant. A vulnerability index was also devised and created for use at the European and national resolution, using the outputs from the SPECIES modelling. Two habitats of conservation interest (BAP priority habitats) were chosen, lowland heath and fens, from which a total of eight species were selected for modelling: Carex elata, Panurus biarmicus, Phragmites australis, Upupa epops and Vertigo moulinsiana (fen), and; Sylvia undata, Ulex europaeus, Parnassia palustris (lowland heath). The lowland heath species all show potential losses of climate space from southern Europe (though here they are not associated with heathland) – most significantly under the HadCM3 A2 scenarios. P. palustris will lose climate space from all of Spain and Greece, most of France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Poland by the 2080s; U. europaeus will lose space from southern Spain, France, Italy and Greece; for S. undata space will be lost largely from central and southern Spain. These results suggest that the predicted losses of climate envelope within Europe for both U. europaeus and S. undata could become an important conservation issue. The fen species modelled showed the same general south-west to north-east shift trend: those of concern for Spanish conservation are P. australis, U. epops and P. biarmicus, specifically under the HadCM3 scenarios; the first two are also relevant to Greece. C. elata and V. moulinsiana are most likely to be of concern to French conservation interests as they are predicted to lose most of their space here; C. elata will also lose space in northern Italy. At the UK scale, the model results showed that the lowland heath plant species will persist, while the bird species, S. undata, will lose some climate space in parts of East Anglia, but there is still a large amount of suitable area into which it could disperse. For the fen species, there will be little change in the climate suitability for P. australis, and V. moulinsiana, while C. elata and the birds will lose space; this is a more sensitive habitat. The lowland heath and fen species most vulnerable to climate change in East Anglia are Vertigo moulinsiana and the three bird species, although at the UK scale S. undata and U. epops become less vulnerable as their new climate space expands. This shows the importance of scale, both for climate scenario impacts and for assessing vulnerability. The modelling outputs give some indication of the ability of the species to undertake autonomous adaptation to climate change and the results of the dispersal model suggest that most non-bird species have limited capacity to track the changes in their suitable climate space. These species will be more dependent on planned adaptation to secure their future if they are vulnerable. This adaptation can take many forms including restoration of former conditions through appropriate management. In the case of lowland heathland, appropriate burning regimes or even fire suppression can be used to favour particular groups of species, while for fenland species, appropriate adaptive management may involve cutting vegetation to increase light availability, or increasing nutrient levels. The results show that climate change could be an issue for both the EU commitment to biodiversity conservation, for example through the Convention on Biological Diversity and its own target to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010 and in the UK, where fens and lowland heathland are both BAP priority habitats, but that it is habitat- and species-dependent. The nature of the main factors affecting lowland heath at present, as listed in the HAP, indicate that protection from loss and appropriate management will be important in its future maintenance. It also suggests that climate change is not a major threat to its dominant species in East Anglia, although aspects of heathland quality might be affected through species’ loss in certain areas, e.g., P. palustris. The HAP target of encouraging the re-establishment by 2005 of a further 6,000 ha of heathland, particularly where this links separate heathland areas, would increase connectivity and assist species as they adapt to climate change through dispersal. For the fens, management of the vegetation, as well as water quality and quantity are important in their maintenance. It is the latter which is of particular concern in East Anglia, given the potential future demand for water for agriculture and domestic consumption, as well as climate change. The HAP, in its review, needs to think carefully about climate change impacts. Given the sensitivity of a number of the East Anglian fen species to climate change, management of water resources will need to play an increasing role in assisting species adapt in this region. A clear strategy is needed to manage these competing demands for water and to ensure that wetland habitats do not lose out. This ACCELERATES extension has been important in adopting an integrated, multi-scalar approach to the issues of climate and land use change. The modelling results support the view that socio-economic drivers are stronger than environmental ones and that habitat and species sensitivity and response to such changes is individualistic. These outputs have important implications for conservation policy through changing species’ vulnerability, and with consequences for the habitats they represent by identifying both habitats and species at risk from climate and land use change and agricultural areas at risk from biodiversity loss. In East Anglia, it is the fens which are generally more sensitive to these changes, although responses are species specific. In the light of these research results, the ability to meet the requirements of the EU Directives and national policies will be compromised by climate and land use change. Much thought, therefore, needs to be given to long-term strategic conservation planning and conservation areas need to be seen in the broader landscape context. Thus a more holistic, inter-national strategy for conservation is critical for sustaining biodiversity in the context of climate change.