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London, 10 June 2013 © OECD/IEA 2013 Context Climate change is slipping down the policy agenda, even as the scientific evidence continues to accumulate Energy sector accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions Mixed news on energy trends Price dynamics between gas and coal support emissions reductions in some regions, but impede them in others Renewables are on the rise, but investment slowed in 2012 Efficiency policies are gaining momentum in many countries Nuclear is facing challenges and CCS still remains distant © OECD/IEA 2013 CO2 emissions at record high in 2012 Change in energy-related CO2 emissions, 2012 Mt CO2 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 World China Japan Middle East India European Union United States CO2 emissions grew by 1.4% to reach 31.6 Gt in 2012, but trends vary by country © OECD/IEA 2013 The two largest emitters make encouraging steps toward decarbonisation… United States 600 gCO2 / kWh gCO2 / kWh CO2 emissions per unit of electricity generation 550 900 850 500 800 450 750 400 700 2003 2006 2009 2012 China 2003 2006 2009 2012 In 2012, total CO2 emissions in the US were back at the level of the mid-1990s, while total CO2 emissions growth in China was one of the lowest in the last decade © OECD/IEA 2013 …but the world is still moving in the wrong direction Global energy-related CO2 emissions Gt 32 Global economic downturn 28 Dissolution of the Soviet Union 24 2nd oil price shock 20 1st oil price shock 16 12 8 End of World War II Great depression 4 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2012 CO2 emissions trends point to a long-term temperature increase of up to 5.3 °C © OECD/IEA 2013 Four measures to keep the 2 °C target alive National efforts in this decade need to buy time for an international agreement, expected to come into force in 2020 Measures to 2020 should meet key criteria: Significant near-term emissions reductions No harm to countries’ economic growth Reliance only on existing technologies and proven policies Significant national benefits other than climate change mitigation Our 4-for-2 °C Scenario proposes four measures that meet these criteria © OECD/IEA 2013 Four measures can stop emissions growth by 2020 Emissions savings in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, 2020 Partial removal of fossil-fuel subsidies 12% Reduce methane releases from upstream oil and gas Implement selected energy efficiency policies 18%4-for-2°C Scenario delivers savings 49% of 3.1 Gt CO2-eq 21% Limit use of inefficient coal power plants Four measures can stop the growth in emissions by 2020 at no net economic cost, reducing emissions by 3.1 Gt, 80% of the savings required for a 2 °C path © OECD/IEA 2013 Measure 1: Improve energy efficiency Emissions savings in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, 2020 Buildings Heating & cooling Appliances & lighting Industrial motors Industry Road Transport 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Share of efficiency savings Energy efficiency reduces emissions by 1.5 Gt, led by minimum energy performance standards – additional investment is more than offset by fuel bill savings © OECD/IEA 2013 Measure 2: Limit the use of inefficient coal power plants Change in electricity demand & coal-fired electricity generation from the least-efficient plants, 2020 TWh 0 - 200 - 400 United States European Union China India Lower electricity demand Lower electricity generation from leastefficient coal plants - 600 - 800 -1 000 Energy efficiency and reducing the role of the least-efficient coal power plants have important co-benefits for local air pollution © OECD/IEA 2013 Measure 3: Reduce methane releases into the atmosphere Methane emissions from the upstream oil and gas industry, 2020 Mt CO2-eq 350 Reduction in 4-for-2 °C Scenario 300 250 200 150 100 50 United States Other OECD Middle East Russia Africa Other Non-OECD In 2010, methane releases were 1.1 Gt CO2-eq; halving the level in 2020 would save twice the gas production of Nigeria today © OECD/IEA 2013 Measure 4: Phase out fossil-fuel subsidies Savings in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario: 360 Mt Other non-OECD 14% Russia 7% Latin America 11% Middle East 54% Africa 15% Fossil-fuel subsidies in 2011 were equivalent to an incentive of $110 per tonne of CO2 © OECD/IEA 2013 The energy sector needs to adapt to climate change o C o C o C o C o C o C o C o C Increase of droughts and/or heat waves o Power plant cooling impacted C o C © Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011) The energy sector needs to increase its resilience to the physical impacts of climate change © OECD/IEA 2013 The energy sector needs to adapt to climate change Typical cyclones and track directions Change in tropical cyclones and storms Exposed oil and gas infrastructure © Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011) The energy sector needs to increase its resilience to the physical impacts of climate change © OECD/IEA 2013 Some fossil-fuel reserves remain underground Potential CO2 emissions from proven fossil-fuel reserves to 2050 Gt 2 000 If all proven reserves were used 1 600 Additional emissions New Policies Scenarioin New Policies Scenario 1 200 450 Scenario 800 400 0 Coal Oil Gas On today’s trends, half of the proven fossil-fuel reserves would be left undeveloped to 2050 – stronger climate action would increase the share © OECD/IEA 2013 A diverse portfolio matters in the power sector Net revenues for new power plants by scenario, 2012-2035 Trillion 8 dollars (2011) 6 New Policies Scenario 450 Scenario CCS fitted 4 2 Renewables Nuclear Fossil fuels Under a 2 °C path, total net revenues for new power plants are $3 trillion higher – CCS is an effective protection strategy for fossil fuel assets © OECD/IEA 2013 Key messages Despite encouraging steps in some countries, global emissions keep rising and the scientific evidence of climate change increases Early national action is required while negotiating towards a global deal in Paris in 2015 that then comes into force by 2020 Four measures can stop emissions growth by 2020 and keep the 2°C target alive, without harming economic growth There is a need for parallel action to deploy critical low-carbon technologies at scale after 2020, including CCS The energy sector must adapt to climate change, both in the resilience of its existing assets and in future investment decisions © OECD/IEA 2013 www.worldenergyoutlook.org/energyclimatemap © OECD/IEA 2013