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Scientific Advice in Government: Collaborating and Communicating Bootle Town Hall Sir John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and Head of the Government Office for Science 10th February 2011 “Those nations that invest in science are investing in the future. Those that cut science are hoping for the best.” Peter Agre, President of the AAAS & Nobel Prize winner The role of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government • Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet • Responsible for the quality of all engineering and scientific advice across the whole of Government • Lead a network of departmental Chief Scientific Advisers • Head of the Science and Engineering Profession in the Civil Service • Supported by the Government Office for Science who have a crossGovernment challenge and support role What’s in my ‘in’ tray? Urbanisation Energy demand Counter-terrorism Population Food security Climate Change Infectious diseases Volcanoes Alleviating poverty Water demand Structure of Financial Systems A Network of Chief Scientific Advisers in all major science using departments Prof Brian Collins BIS Prof Prof Brian Prof Adrian Smith Prof Jeremy DG Science & Watson Chris Whitty Collins Research (BIS) CLG DFID DfT Prof Mark Prof Dame Welland Sally Davies DH MoD Carole Willis DfE Prof Bernard Silverman Home Office Prof John Prof Bob Watson Harries Wales Defra Dr Bill Patrick Anita Gunnyeon McDonald Charlesworth DWP HSE DCMS Prof Peter Freer Smith Forestry C. MI5 Prof David Mackay DECC Prof Anne Glover Scotland Prof David Clary FCO Rebecca Endean MoJ Dr Andrew Wadge FSA CSAC Issues Groups Counterterrorism Climate Change and Food Security Cross cutting issues that require a range of expertise and experience to ensure science based evidence supports policy making Climate Change and Food Security Sub-Group Topics discussed have included: • • • • • Food Matters 2008 Food price spike Ocean acidification Tropospheric ozone Contribution of engineering to address climate change Counter-Terrorism Sub-Group Topics discussed have included: • Counter-IED • Cyber security • 2012 Olympics Security Council for Science and Technology • Advises the Prime Minister on science and technology issues that cut across departments • 5 broad themes: Research Science and society Education Science and government Technology innovation • Since 2003 has published 12 reports and provided shorter pieces of advice when required • A recent key piece of work: A Vision for UK Research The Government Office for Science The Prime Minister and Cabinet BIS International Science in Government Team Government Chief Scientific Adviser Private Office • Ministers • CSAs • OGDs • NGOs • Industry Foresight Team • GO - Science are housed in BIS but have an independent cross-Government role • GO - Science provide scientific challenge and support to Departmental policy officials and for scientists across Government Foresight: Solutions to the Perfect Storm Global Environmental Migration International Dimensions of Climate Change Science at the grassroots of Government? The Government Chief Scientific Adviser’s role as Head of the Science and Engineering Profession • Ensuring the contribution of engineers and scientists is recognised and valued in Government • Providing support to career development activities and professional skills • Community of Scientists and Engineers across Government [email protected] The GSE community at two years 808 GSE members have a PhD Large 1718 GSE members have chartered status or are members of professional bodies. 948 follow a programme of Continuing Professional Development (CPD) 66% of GSE members are in the grade/range HEO to grade 7 3200+ members Highly Skilled Diverse 700+ different areas of expertise GSE: Membership Profile 27 73 20 30 50 59% work in a post where their science expertise and/or qualifications are an essential part of their job Why do we need co-ordinated, effective scientific advice? Lessons from the Past: Foot and Mouth 2001 “The involvement of independent sources of scientific advice early in the 2001 epidemic was due to the personal intervention of the Chairman of the Food Standards Agency. The formal engagement of a scientific advisory group was not until 35 days after the start of the epidemic” Lessons to Be Learned from the Foot and Mouth disease outbreak of 2001 Inquiry National Risk Assessment National Risk Register 2010 Edition Risk Matrix The Concept of SAGE COBR: including DAs informs and advises commissions SAGE (strategic) is informed by/commissions from/coordinates Science providers (academia, industry, DSTL, etc.) Departmental science advice SAGE Membership Government experts: •DSTL International experts Learned academies •HPA •AWE •Research Councils SAGE Regulators Academia Industry experts •And others……. CSAs Putting it into Practice: The Volcanic Ash Cloud Iceland’s Volcanoes • 30 potentially active volcanic systems in Iceland • 205 historical eruptions (average 25 per 100 years), • 78% were explosive (due partly to ice-caps on central volcanoes), 13% part explosive, 9% effusive • In last 1100 years: 79% basaltic, 16% intermediate, 5% silicic • Periodicity of volcanism in SE Iceland of ~140 years. The Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Frequency of explosive and partly explosive Icelandic eruptions since 850AD (per 20-years) Thordarson and Larsen 2007 Scientific and engineering input to the volcanic ash emergency National Security Council (Threats Hazards Risks and Contingencies) Met Office British Geological Survey Geology and volcanology subgroup Scientific Advisory Group in Emergencies (SAGE) Chaired by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser Meteorology subgroup Academic experts Research Councils / Government scientists Aviation engineering subgroup What should and did SAGE do? Commission new research Peer review incoming science advice Example: review of NERC Dornier measurements of ash cloud Provide briefing on issues and concepts Example: why did the Icelandic volcano contain so much fine ash? Help with planning advice Example: No immediate health and environmental issues Provide assessments on future prognosis and produce response scenarios Example: future scenarios for Iceland eruptions and meteorological conditions Communicating Risk: Hazard based regulation “All substances are poisons, there is none which is not a poison. The right dose differentiates a poison from a remedy.” Paracelsus, 1493‐1531 Risk = Hazard x Exposure Has slowed uptake of GM… Despite “consumer fears” five approvals have now been granted in the EU 140 120 Hectares (million) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 Year 25 countries that have adopted biotech crops 2004 2006 2008 Source: Clive James, 2008 • Amflora potatoes approved for starch production (mostly paper making) • The by-product produced is approved to be used as animal feed …and could result in potential misuses of the precautionary principle Bisphenol A – Baby Bottles Pesticides – plant protection products This potentially legitimises an overly precautionary approach in the absence of scientific evidence showing any risk Climate Risk: The 2°C target + 2 - 6°C + 1 - 2°C + 1 - 3°C + 1 - 3°C • Drought events one and a half times as • Danger of forest fires frequent across southern Africa and • Some cereal crops may increase in Mediterranean basin mid to high latitudes • Hottest days: China 4°C warmer; North • Rising temperatures will cause America 8°C warmer; Europe 6°C warmer. changes in rainfall patterns • Global average sea level rise by approx 40cm. • Glacier melt Source: Met Office Now a real risk of a 4°C average temperature rise + 8 - 16°C + 5 - 7°C + 3 - 8°C + 4 - 8°C • • • • Increased danger of forest fires Crop yields decrease Up to 70% reduction in water run-off. Sea levels could rise as much as 80cm by the end of the century • Extreme glacier melt Source: Met Office • • • • • • Fisheries severely depleted. Drought events twice as frequent. Disappearance of the permafrost Decline of ice sheets Tropical cyclones more intense. Hottest days: China 6°C warmer; North America 11°C warmer; Europe 8°C warmer. The Copenhagen Pledges Source: AVOID, Technical Note, 2010 Significant cuts in global emissions after 2020 will be required (pink and orange lines) The UK Commitment The Climate Change Committee has made a number of recommendations which have been taken forward in legislation: • The UK should reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 80% by 2050, as a fair contribution to a global action on climate change • The UK should reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 34% by 2020 • Once a global deal is reached, the target should increase to 42% by 2020 The 80% reduction is an enormous challenge 615 Mt CO2e 49 Aviation & shipping* Non-CO2 GHGs Other CO2 Industry 93 47 66 Residential, public & commercial heat 97 Road transport 113 Electricity generation 151 * 2008 emissions (2009 not yet available); bunker fuels basis Interim budget Intended budget 42% cut vs. 1990 2009 emissions 2020 target 74% cut (= 80% vs. 1990) 159 Mt CO2e 2050 objective Source: Climate Change Committee, based on a figure in the report ‘Building a low carbon economy’ An investment and engineering challenge for current technology Technology Annual Deployment Rate Coal with CCS 35 plants (500MW) Gas with CCS 20 plants (500MW) Nuclear plants 32 plants (1000MW) Hydro-power 1/5 Canada’s hydropower capacity Biomass plants 100 plants (50MW) Wind onshore 14000 turbines (4MW) Wind offshore 3750 turbines (4MW) Geothermal 130 geothermal units (100MW) Solar PV 215million M2 solar panels Solar CSP 80 CSP plants (250MW) Source: IEA 2008 Nuclear Energy: good example of Risk-Hazard balance • By its nature, nuclear energy presents a major hazard: dealing with large amounts of radioactivity • Importance of ‘Managed Risk’: from site selection and plant design, to construction and operation, to waste management and decommissioning • Recognising the need for Nuclear Energy in the future EDF/AREVA UK EPR Westinghouse AP1000 Low Carbon Opportunities – e.g. Offshore Wind Source: The London Array New Risks: Climate Change and future planning • uncertainty about how it may effect future wind patterns • ‘blocking events’ ; average wind speed changes etc Risks: We also have to think about Climate Change adaptation Bridge collapse at Cockermouth, 2009 Semi‐submerged power station at Walham Stretch of Great Western rail line at Dawlish If we don’t adapt our new and existing long life infrastructure then we face increasing risk of impacts of climate change disrupting essential services and adversely affecting the economy Infrastructure Report: Understanding and preparing for future risks That is why Adapting to Climate Change Programme has prioritised infrastructure: • Set up 2 year cross-departmental Infrastructure and Adaptation project to examine and identify how long-term resilience of infrastructure to climate change might be increased. • Introduced Adaptation Reporting Power which covers key infrastructure sectors. • Started UK Climate Change Risk Assessment These have been challenging times for science and engineering... …but challenges drive us forward We must focus on communicating these scientific challenges: both the solutions and risks/uncertainties “people are entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts" Stephen Chu US Secretary of Energy Western Governors' Association (WGA) annual meeting in Utah 14-16 June “In the long history of humankind those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively have prevailed” Charles Darwin, 1809-1882 “In science the credit goes to the man who convinces the world, not to the man to whom the idea first occurs.” Francis Darwin, 1848-1925