Download Scientific Advice in Government: Collaborating and Communicating Bootle Town Hall Sir John Beddington

Scientific Advice in Government:
Collaborating and Communicating
Bootle Town Hall
Sir John Beddington
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and
Head of the Government Office for Science
10th February 2011
“Those nations that invest in science are investing in the future. Those that cut science are hoping for the best.”
Peter Agre, President of
the AAAS & Nobel Prize
winner
The role of the Chief Scientific
Adviser to HM Government
• Report to the Prime Minister and
Cabinet
• Responsible for the quality of all
engineering and scientific advice
across the whole of Government
• Lead a network of departmental Chief
Scientific Advisers
• Head of the Science and Engineering Profession in the Civil Service
• Supported by the Government Office for Science who have a crossGovernment challenge and support role
What’s in my ‘in’ tray?
 Urbanisation
 Energy demand
Counter-terrorism
 Population
Food security
Climate Change
Infectious
diseases
Volcanoes
Alleviating poverty
 Water demand
Structure of
Financial Systems
A Network of Chief Scientific Advisers
in all major science using departments
Prof Brian
Collins
BIS
Prof
Prof Brian Prof Adrian Smith Prof Jeremy
DG Science &
Watson
Chris Whitty
Collins
Research (BIS)
CLG
DFID
DfT
Prof Mark Prof Dame
Welland Sally Davies
DH
MoD
Carole Willis
DfE
Prof Bernard
Silverman
Home Office
Prof John
Prof
Bob Watson Harries
Wales
Defra
Dr Bill
Patrick
Anita
Gunnyeon McDonald
Charlesworth
DWP
HSE
DCMS
Prof Peter
Freer Smith
Forestry C.
MI5
Prof David
Mackay
DECC
Prof Anne
Glover
Scotland
Prof David
Clary FCO
Rebecca
Endean
MoJ
Dr Andrew
Wadge
FSA
CSAC Issues Groups
Counterterrorism
Climate Change and
Food Security
Cross cutting issues that require a range of expertise and experience
to ensure science based evidence supports policy making
Climate Change and Food
Security Sub-Group
Topics discussed have
included:
•
•
•
•
•
Food Matters
2008 Food price spike
Ocean acidification
Tropospheric ozone
Contribution of engineering
to address climate change
Counter-Terrorism Sub-Group
Topics discussed have
included:
• Counter-IED
• Cyber security
• 2012 Olympics Security
Council for Science
and Technology
• Advises the Prime Minister on science and technology issues that cut across departments
• 5 broad themes:
 Research
 Science and society
 Education
 Science and government
 Technology innovation
• Since 2003 has published 12 reports and provided shorter pieces of advice when required
• A recent key piece of work: A Vision for UK Research The Government Office for
Science
The Prime Minister and Cabinet
BIS
International
Science in Government
Team
Government Chief Scientific
Adviser
Private
Office
• Ministers
• CSAs
• OGDs
• NGOs
• Industry
Foresight
Team
• GO - Science are housed in BIS but have an independent cross-Government
role
• GO - Science provide scientific challenge and support to Departmental policy
officials and for scientists across Government
Foresight: Solutions to the
Perfect Storm
Global Environmental Migration
International Dimensions of Climate Change
Science at the grassroots of
Government?
The Government Chief Scientific
Adviser’s role as Head of the
Science and Engineering
Profession
• Ensuring the contribution of engineers
and scientists is recognised and
valued in Government
• Providing support to career
development activities and
professional skills
• Community of Scientists and
Engineers across Government
[email protected]
The GSE community
at two years
808 GSE members have
a PhD
Large
1718 GSE members
have chartered status or
are members of
professional bodies.
948 follow a programme
of Continuing Professional
Development (CPD)
66% of GSE members
are in the grade/range
HEO to grade 7
3200+
members
Highly
Skilled
Diverse
700+
different areas
of expertise
GSE: Membership Profile
27
73
20
30
50
59% work in a post where their science expertise and/or qualifications are an essential part of their job
Why do we need co-ordinated,
effective scientific advice?
Lessons from the Past:
Foot and Mouth 2001
“The involvement of independent sources of scientific advice early in the 2001 epidemic was due to the personal intervention of the Chairman of the Food Standards Agency. The formal engagement of a scientific advisory group was not until 35 days after the start of the epidemic”
Lessons to Be Learned from the Foot and
Mouth disease outbreak of 2001 Inquiry
National Risk Assessment
National Risk Register 2010 Edition Risk Matrix
The Concept of SAGE
COBR: including DAs
informs and advises
commissions
SAGE (strategic)
is informed by/commissions from/coordinates
Science providers
(academia, industry, DSTL, etc.)
Departmental science
advice
SAGE Membership
Government
experts:
•DSTL
International experts
Learned
academies
•HPA
•AWE
•Research
Councils
SAGE
Regulators
Academia
Industry
experts
•And others…….
CSAs
Putting it into Practice:
The Volcanic Ash Cloud
Iceland’s Volcanoes
• 30 potentially active volcanic systems in Iceland
• 205 historical eruptions (average 25 per 100 years),
• 78% were explosive (due partly to ice-caps on central
volcanoes), 13% part explosive, 9% effusive
• In last 1100 years: 79% basaltic, 16% intermediate, 5% silicic
• Periodicity of volcanism in SE Iceland of ~140 years.
The Eyjafjallajökull Volcano
Frequency of explosive
and partly explosive
Icelandic eruptions since
850AD (per 20-years)
Thordarson and Larsen 2007
Scientific and engineering input to the
volcanic ash emergency
National Security Council
(Threats Hazards Risks and Contingencies)
Met Office
British
Geological
Survey
Geology and
volcanology
subgroup
Scientific Advisory Group in
Emergencies (SAGE)
Chaired by the Government Chief
Scientific Adviser
Meteorology
subgroup
Academic
experts
Research
Councils /
Government
scientists
Aviation
engineering
subgroup
What should and did SAGE do?
Commission new research
Peer review incoming science
advice
Example: review of
NERC Dornier
measurements of
ash cloud
Provide briefing on issues
and concepts
Example: why did the
Icelandic volcano
contain so much fine
ash?
Help with planning advice
Example:
No immediate health
and environmental
issues
Provide assessments on future prognosis
and produce response scenarios
Example: future
scenarios for Iceland
eruptions and
meteorological
conditions
Communicating Risk:
Hazard based regulation
“All substances are poisons, there is none which is not a poison. The right dose differentiates a poison from a remedy.”
Paracelsus, 1493‐1531
Risk = Hazard x Exposure
Has slowed uptake of GM…
Despite “consumer fears”
five approvals have now
been granted in the EU
140
120
Hectares
(million)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
Year
25 countries that have
adopted biotech crops
2004
2006
2008
Source: Clive James, 2008
• Amflora potatoes approved for starch
production (mostly paper making)
• The by-product produced is approved to
be used as animal feed
…and could result in potential misuses
of the precautionary principle
Bisphenol A – Baby Bottles
Pesticides –
plant protection products
This potentially legitimises an overly precautionary approach in the absence of scientific evidence showing any risk
Climate Risk: The 2°C target
+ 2 - 6°C
+ 1 - 2°C
+ 1 - 3°C
+ 1 - 3°C
• Drought events one and a half times as
• Danger of forest fires
frequent across southern Africa and
• Some cereal crops may increase in
Mediterranean basin
mid to high latitudes
• Hottest days: China 4°C warmer; North
• Rising temperatures will cause
America 8°C warmer; Europe 6°C warmer.
changes in rainfall patterns
• Global average sea level rise by approx 40cm.
• Glacier melt
Source: Met Office
Now a real risk of a 4°C average
temperature rise
+ 8 - 16°C
+ 5 - 7°C
+ 3 - 8°C
+ 4 - 8°C
•
•
•
•
Increased danger of forest fires
Crop yields decrease
Up to 70% reduction in water run-off.
Sea levels could rise as much as
80cm by the end of the century
• Extreme glacier melt
Source: Met Office
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fisheries severely depleted.
Drought events twice as frequent.
Disappearance of the permafrost
Decline of ice sheets
Tropical cyclones more intense.
Hottest days: China 6°C warmer; North
America 11°C warmer; Europe 8°C warmer.
The Copenhagen Pledges
Source: AVOID, Technical Note, 2010
Significant cuts in global emissions after 2020 will be required (pink
and orange lines)
The UK Commitment
The Climate Change Committee has made a number of
recommendations which have been taken forward in
legislation:
•
The UK should reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
by at least 80% by 2050, as a fair contribution to a
global action on climate change
•
The UK should reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
by 34% by 2020
•
Once a global deal is reached, the target should
increase to 42% by 2020
The 80% reduction is an
enormous challenge
615 Mt CO2e
49
Aviation & shipping*
Non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry
93
47
66
Residential, public &
commercial heat
97
Road transport
113
Electricity generation
151
* 2008 emissions
(2009 not yet available);
bunker fuels basis
Interim
budget
Intended
budget
42% cut
vs. 1990
2009
emissions
2020 target
74% cut
(= 80% vs.
1990)
159 Mt
CO2e
2050 objective
Source: Climate Change Committee, based on a figure in the
report ‘Building a low carbon economy’
An investment and engineering
challenge for current technology
Technology
Annual Deployment Rate
Coal with CCS
35 plants (500MW)
Gas with CCS
20 plants (500MW)
Nuclear plants
32 plants (1000MW)
Hydro-power
1/5 Canada’s hydropower capacity
Biomass plants
100 plants (50MW)
Wind onshore
14000 turbines (4MW)
Wind offshore
3750 turbines (4MW)
Geothermal
130 geothermal units (100MW)
Solar PV
215million M2 solar panels
Solar CSP
80 CSP plants (250MW)
Source: IEA 2008
Nuclear Energy: good example of
Risk-Hazard balance
• By its nature, nuclear energy presents
a major hazard: dealing with large
amounts of radioactivity
• Importance of ‘Managed Risk’: from
site selection and plant design, to
construction and operation, to waste
management and decommissioning
• Recognising the need for Nuclear
Energy in the future
EDF/AREVA UK EPR
Westinghouse AP1000
Low Carbon Opportunities –
e.g. Offshore Wind
Source: The
London Array
New Risks: Climate Change and future planning
• uncertainty about how it may effect future wind patterns
• ‘blocking events’ ; average wind speed changes etc
Risks: We also have to think about
Climate Change adaptation
Bridge collapse at Cockermouth, 2009
Semi‐submerged power station at Walham
Stretch of Great Western rail line at Dawlish
If we don’t adapt our new and existing long life infrastructure then we face increasing risk of impacts of climate change disrupting essential services and adversely affecting the economy Infrastructure Report: Understanding
and preparing for future risks
That is why Adapting to Climate Change
Programme has prioritised infrastructure:
• Set up 2 year cross-departmental
Infrastructure and Adaptation project
to examine and identify how long-term
resilience of infrastructure to climate
change might be increased.
• Introduced Adaptation Reporting
Power which covers key infrastructure
sectors.
• Started UK Climate Change Risk
Assessment
These have been challenging times
for science and engineering...
…but challenges drive us forward
We must focus on communicating these scientific challenges: both the solutions and risks/uncertainties
“people are entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts"
Stephen Chu
US Secretary
of Energy
Western Governors' Association (WGA) annual meeting in Utah
14-16 June
“In the long history of humankind those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively have prevailed”
Charles Darwin, 1809-1882
“In science the credit goes to the man who convinces the world, not to the man to whom the idea first occurs.”
Francis Darwin, 1848-1925