Download Climate Change and Land Management

Regional workshop on
Climate Change and Food Security in ASEAN+3 countries
29-31 March 2011, Beijing
CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND MANAGEMENT
IN ASEAN+3 COUNTRIES
RAJENDRA SHRESTHA
Associate Professor
ASIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Thailand
[email protected]
Presentation Outline
Land use change and Land degradation
Climate change impacts
Land management strategies for CC mitigation/
adaptation
Policy of SLM relevance
Barriers and enabling environment
Asian Institute of Technology
 An international-multicultural institute
 CoE on Sustainable Development in the context of climate change
 MSc in Climate change and Sustainable Development
 Number of CC research
 ABC EI manual
 SLM RSI for Asia [www.serd.ait.ac.th/slm]
 TNA RC for CC mitigation and adaptation [www.sdcc.ait.ac.th/tnamitigation]
 Bangladesh, Cambodia, Georgia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Bhutan, Nepal,
Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Kazakasthan, Moldova, Azerbaijan]
 Prioritized technologies, TFS, Policy synthesis
Employment by sector, 2000–2006 (%)
Notes: *ASEAN regional figures exclude Myanmar.
The starting and ending years are 2000 and 2006, respectively, except for Cambodia (2000, 2005); Lao PDR (1995, 2003).
Sources: ILO (2008)
Arable land and Agricultural
contribution to GDP
Country
Brunei Darussalam
Arable land (%)
Agriculture contribution of
GDP (% GDP)**
2.1
1.1
Cambodia
20.4
28.7
Indonesia
11.0
13.8
Laos
4.0
44.3
Malaysia
5.5
7.4
Myanmar
14.9
n.a.
Philippines
19.0
17.4
Singapore
1.5
0.1
Thailand
27.5
8.8
Viet Nam
20.1
17.8
Source: *www.nationmaster.com, **ASEANstats (2007).
n.a.- not available
Land use change
SUMATRA, INDONESIA
17000 acres
1989
2001
Land Degradation: Severity of Human-induced Degradation
Total
area
Land degradation
Light
(%)
Moderate
(%)
Severe
(%)
Very
Severe
(%)
Cause
Type
(‘000 km2)
None
(%)
6
0
0
0
100
0
A,D
P,C,W
Cambodia
183
13
2
36
27
22
D
W
Indonesia
1,898
1
36
26
32
5
D,A
W,C
Lao PDR
232
0
16
83
0
1
D
W
Malaysia
329
0
0
17
83
0
D,A
W,C
Myanmar
668
1
0
63
35
1
D,A
W,C
Philippines
295
3
0
18
76
3
D
W
Singapore
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
Thailand
516
0
2
20
28
50
D,A
W,C
Viet Nam
330
0
0
21
29
49
D,A
W,C
Countries
Brunei
L e g e n d: Cause: A = agriculture; D = deforestation. Type: P = physical deterioration; C = chemical deterioration; W = water
erosion. n.a.- not available.
S o u r c e : FAO/AGL - TERRASTAT
Land Degradation: due to Agriculture Activities
Countries
Total area
Degraded land due to agriculture activities
(‘000 km2)
Total
(‘000 km2)
Severe
(%)
Very Severe
(%)
6
4
67
0
Cambodia
183
8
0
4
Indonesia
1,898
217
8
3
Lao PDR
232
0
0
0
Malaysia
329
38
12
0
Myanmar
668
126
19
0
Philippines
295
0
0
0
Singapore
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
Thailand
516
76
12
2
Viet Nam
330
90
22
6
Brunei
S o u r c e : FAO/AGL - TERRASTAT
Land Use and Carbon Emission
agriculture constituted 10 to 12 percent of
global anthropogenic emissions in 2005
1.60
Africa
1.40
Latin America
1.20
S. & SE Asia
1.00
SUM
2000-2007
1.5 Pg C y-1
(17% total emissions)
Land use change accounts for 15%–
20% of global GHG emissions, and as
much as 75% of Southeast Asia’s
emissions.
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
0.00
1850
Pg C yr-1
1.80
Estimated historical and projected N2O and CH4 emissions in
the agricultural sector during the period 1990-2020
CC Vulnerability in SE Asia
IPCC assessment Table 10.11
Sector
Biodiversity
Coastal ecosystems
Food and fibre
Land degradation
Water resources
Settlements
High
Moderate
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
3)
4)
Thailand
Viet Nam
√
n.a
n.a
n.a
√
√
n.a
√
√
n.a
√
n.a
√
√
n.a
√
n.a
n.a
√
√
√
√
√
n.a
√
n.a
√
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
√
√
n.a
√
n.a
n.a
√
√
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
√
3)
Laos
2)
Singapore
√
2)
Philippines 2)
Severe droughts and
floods
Spread of harmful
pests
Myanmar
Over cultivation
Malaysia
Loss of arable land
Decreased soil
fertility
Decreased crop
productivity
Indonesia
Impacts
Cambodia 1)
Impacts of CC on agriculture
√ = presence; n.a. = not available;
Sources: 1) UNFCC-report (2002); 2) UNFCC-report (1999); 3) UNFCC-report (2000); 4) UNFCC-report (2010)
√
√
SLM
SLM: a knowledge based
combination of technologies,
policies and practices that
integrate land, water,
biodiversity, and
environmental concerns
(including input and output
externalities) to meet rising
food and fiber demands while
sustaining ecosystem services
and livelihoods.
(World Bank, 2006)
maintain or
enhance
production and
services
enhance
economic
viability and
social
acceptability
SLM
reduce the
level of
production
risks
protect the
potential of natural
resources and
prevent
degradation of soil
and water quality
(Wood and Dumanski, 1994).
Evolution of SLM systems
Conservation
agriculture
No-till farming
1. Eliminate
plowing
2. Use residue
mulch
3. Chemical need
control
1960s
1. No-till farming
2. Complex crop
rotation (cover
crops,
agroforestry)
3. Integrated
nutrient
management
SLM Systems
1. Conservation
agriculture
2. Judicious land
use
3. Adaptation to
climate change
4. Mitigation of
climate change
4. Water
conservation,
harvesting and
recycling
4. Enhance
soil/ecosystem/s
ocial resilience
1990s
2000s
WB, 2010
Agricultural ecosystem
Smith et al. 2007b
WB, 2010
Strategies for Mitigation of and Adaptation to CC
Strategies for adaptation to CC in Cropland
WB, 2010
Reducing risk of CC through adaptive measures
Policies [of SLM relevance]
Country
Institution and agriculture policies
Cambodia
• development of new high yielding varieties
• improvement of crop management and cultural practices
• development of early warning system for extreme climatic
events
• development of maps showing the rice-growing provinces
prone to flood and drought
• increasing planting index in suitable areas
• diversification of foods
Indonesia
• development of field schools (climate; integrated plant
management; integrated pest control)
• new superior varieties of rice
• usage of organic farming on paddy field
• build improved water storage
• dissemination of compost-making devices
• monitoring of flood and drought on paddy fields
• adjustment of planting calendar
Sources:
1)
UNFCC-report (2002); 2) UNFCC-report (1999); 3) UNFCC-report (2000); 4) UNFCC-report (2010)
Policies [of SLM relevance] contd.
Country
Institution and agriculture policies
Philippines
• rainfall management: dams and evaporation control
• cropping pattern adjustment based on early warning systems
Singapore
• Urban Redevelopment
• Agri-food and Veterinary development
• Integrated Pest management (IPM)
Thailand
• improved water management through soil aeration and periodic
drainage of paddy fields
• incorporation of pre-fermented farm residues in organic matter
amendment
• use of sulfate-containing nitrogen fertilizers in mineral fertilization
• use of chemical compounds to inhibit the production of methane;
Viet Nam
• adopt climate change-suited cropping patterns.
• plant breeding to create new varieties more adaptable to the
changing climate.
• adopt efficient water management methods.
Sources:
1)
UNFCC-report (2002); 2) UNFCC-report (1999); 3) UNFCC-report (2000); 4) UNFCC-report (2010)
Constraints of Policy relevance regarding
CC and SLM
Indonesia
Issues
1)
Laos
Myanmar
1)
Philippines
1)
2)
Singapore
Thailand
1)
Viet Nam
√
√
√
√
n.a
√
n.a
n.a
√
n.a
n.a
n.a
√
√
Financial constraints
√
√
√
√
n.a
√
n.a
Lack of manpower and
expertise
Lack of proper data on land
management issues
√
√
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
√
√
√
√
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
No updated policies
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
√
n.a
n.a
Sectoral conflicts
n.a
n.a
√
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
Improper land use policy
and planning
n.a
n.a
√
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
Centralized power
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
√
n.a
Institutional weakness
Lack of awareness on CC
√ = presence; n.a. = not available;
Sources:
1)
2nd UNCCD report , 2002; 2) 3rd UNCCD report , 2006
1)
Barriers to CC and SLM
 Lack of mainstreaming of LD and CC concerns into national development
planning
 Development frameworks are usually not based on what the land can
actually sustain (no land capability consideration) and lack an integrated
approach
 Development plans maximize sectoral benefits, often at the cost of other
sectors; e.g. mono-cultures
 Economic growth policies often contradict long-term environmental
concerns; e.g. unsustainable land use practices leads to accelerated erosion
 Technological limits; Financial barriers; Social/cultural barriers
 Lack of capacity for SLM
 Individual = local land users lack access to innovations; expertise is limited; new tools are not
disseminated
 Institutional = sectoral divisions, overlapping mandates, under-funding, weak extension
services, land tenure
 Systemic = policy disincentives; legal constraints (especially land tenure, land use
regulations)
Land degradation severity in
the GMS
•
•
•
•
Degradation class
Laos
Vegetation cover
Water use efficiency
Runoff
Soil loss
Myanmar
Vietnam
Cambodia
Thailand
Yunnan, China
GMS total
Shrestha and Roy, 2008
% of country’s area
Very severe
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
Severe
19.1
14.5
17.9
10.7
18.4
8.7
15.0
Moderate
51.8
46.4
54.0
44.9
53.9
53.7
50.9
Slight
28.9
38.8
27.1
44.2
27.5
37.0
33.9
None
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.1
236.8
676.5
331.7
181.0
513.1
396.8
2335.9
Country total area (‘000 sq.km.)*
Landusewise C contribution, and biomass & soil C
Prasae watershed, Thailand
Land-use
Contribution to
Area (%)
total C (%)
Contribution of
BMC (%)
Ratio
BMC:SC
Cassava
12.97
9.16
3.34
0.18
Coconut
0.56
0.53
0.63
1.20
Coconut-cassava
0.44
0.34
0.69
3.14
Eucalyptus
1.50
1.30
1.08
0.53
19.79
24.49
33.36
1.30
6.07
2.89
0.70
0.11
23.30
37.59
51.40
1.31
6.90
4.16
1.91
0.24
Pineapple
16.95
11.92
3.80
0.15
Sugarcane-cassava
10.76
7.12
2.84
0.20
Sugarcane
0.75
0.51
0.25
0.26
Total
100
100
100.00
0.71
Mixed orchard
Paddy
Para rubber
Pineapple-cassava
Total C - 20.5 Tg [BMC – 42%, SC – 58%]
Gnanavelrajah et al. 2008
Planting data adjustment of Soybean
Northern Thailand
• Experiments (germination %, seed vigor, protein and
oil content, yield)
• Variety tested (MJ 9769-8; CM 9513-3; CM 60)
• Research result (CM 60) is being implemented in
upper north of Chiangmai (contract seed growers)
and lower north Phrae province (Seed network)
• Usual length of growing period in the area 15 Dec 15 Jan
• Observed changed growing period
• For grain production (15 Nov - 5 Jan)
• For seed production (15 Nov - 25 Dec)
• Planting date is changed by
• before 10-20 days
Source: Wannasai et. al., 2011
Enabling Land Management
Constraints
(Biophysical)
Constraints
(policy/
Institutional)
Constraints
(technological,
etc.)
Land use/management decisions
Constraints
(Biophysical)
Constraints
(policy/
Institutional)
Constraints
(technological,
economic, etc.)
Land use/management decisions
 Information on local impacts, mitigation and adaptation potential
(promising technological options)
 Promoting co-benefits of land use and land management
 Policy towards removing barriers of SLM
 Enabling environment (Capacity building, technical knowledge,
Financial resources)
Thank you all
and also
FAO, CAAS, WMO, ASEAN
Rajendra Shrestha, PhD
[email protected]