Download pdf

UsingFutureScenariostoIdentifyPotentialLAMPandWatershed
PlanningMeasuresforClimateChangeAdaptationalongLakeOntario:
STAKEHOLDERGENERATEDRECOMMENDATIONS
AReportforLakeandWatershedPlanners
23December2015
NYSGI-W-15-001
Submittedby:
Dr.KatherineBunting-Howarth,AssociateDirector,NewYorkSeaGrant
DavidMacNeill,GreatLakesFisheriesandEcosystemSpecialist,NewYorkSeaGrant
JessicaSpaccio,ExtensionSpecialist,NortheastRegionalClimateCenter,CornellUniversity
Dr.RebeccaSchneider,AssociateProfessor,CornellUniversity,DepartmentofNaturalResources.
Dr.BrianWeidel,ResearchFisheriesBiologist,USGSBiologicalFieldStation
Dr. Arthur DeGaetano, Director, Northeast Regional Climate Center; Professor, Cornell University,
DepartmentofEarthandAtmosphericSciences
1
UsingFutureScenariostoIdentifyPotentialLAMPandWatershed
PlanningMeasuresforClimateChangeAdaptationalongLakeOntario:
STAKEHOLDERGENERATEDRECOMMENDATIONS
AReportforLakeandWatershedPlanners
TableofContents
ExecutiveSummary……………………………………………………………………………………..Page3
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………….Page4
ProcessEmployed…………………………………………………………………………………………Page7
StakeholderGeneratedRecommendations…………………………………………………..Page10
PotentialNextSteps……………………………………………………………………………………...Page21
Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………..Page22
References……………………………………………………………………………………………………..Page23
Appendices…………………………………………………………………………………………………….Page24
Bunting-Howarth,K.,D.MacNeill,J.Spaccio,R.Schneider,B.WeidelandA.DeGaetano.2016.
UsingFutureScenariostoIdentifyPotentialLAMPandWatershedPlanningMeasuresforClimate
ChangeAdaptationalongLakeOntario:StakeholderGeneratedRecommendations—AReport
forLakeandWatershedPlanners.NYSGI-W-15-001.29pages.
2
ExecutiveSummary
LakeOntario,thefourteenthlargestlakeintheworld,isavastgeographicalfeaturebutis
neverthelessinfluencedbyhumanbehavior,asevidencedbychangesinnutrient
concentrationsandcycling,speciescomposition,andfoodwebdynamics.Nutrientloadsand
waterclarityobservedinLakeOntariooverthepasttwodecadesillustratethepotentialfor
humanbehaviortoinfluencethislargeandimportantecosystem.Whilescientistsworkto
understandhowtheecosystemhaschangedandanticipatefuturechanges,thereisa
concurrentneedtoeducateabroaderstakeholdergroupaboutfutureuncertaintiesinthe
ecosystemandtheservicesitprovides(Walkeretal.2002).ScenarioPlanninghasproventobe
ausefultooltohelpprepareforuncertainfutures.Scenariosdevelopedwithmulti-disciplinary
inputrepresentplausible,butalternate,futureconditionsofasystemofinterest(Wack1985).
Assuch,theycanprovideameansofunderstandingpotentialfutureimpacts,suchasthose
relatedtoclimatechange,andcanhelpdeveloplocal,adaptivedecision-makingtoreducethe
severityofthoseimpacts(Wack1985;Petersonetal.2003).In2012,NewYorkSeaGrant
organizedascenarioworkshop,fundedbytheGLRI(GreatLakesRestorationInitiative)asan
exercisetoexplorepossiblescenariosforthefutureoftheLakeOntarioecosystemwithinput
fromdiversestakeholders(WorkshopI).Twomaindriversofecosystemtrajectorieswere
identifiedclimateinducedprecipitationextremes,andhumandemographics.Fournarratives
describingthesefuturestatesweredevelopedandtheunderlyingconditionswereidentifiedby
thegroup.
Thefouridentifiedscenarios(futurestates)wereasfollows.
1. DrierClimate--SlowPopulationGrowth:“BoatlessLakeOntario”
2. WetClimate--SlowPopulationGrowth:“RagingRunoff”
3. DrierClimate--FastPopulationGrowth:“CrowdedBeaches”
4. WetClimate--FastPopulationGrowth:“SoggyStripMalls”
WithfundingfromtheGreatLakesIntegratedScienceAssessmentprogram(GLISA),aniterative
approachwastakentodevelopdraftrecommendationsforLakewideActionandManagement
Plans(LAMP)(binationalplansdesignedspecificallyforeachofthefiveGreatLakes)aswellas
forwatershedplannerstoconsiderwhenadaptingexisting(andnew)planstoaddressclimate
change.DuringtheMay2015workshop(WorkshopII),draftrecommendationswere
synthesizedfromdiversestakeholdersthatconsideredlongtermextremesinprecipitation
(extremeprecipitationanddrought)andhumandemographics(slowandrapidpopulation
growth)ascreatedinthescenarioworkshopinSeptember2012.Follow-upworkshopswere
heldinthefallof2015(WorkshopsIII-AandB)togatherpublicinputonthesedraft
recommendations.Workshopsattendeesusedtheirlocalknowledge,beliefs,andopinionsto
refineandprioritizepotentialmanagementandpolicyactionsthatwouldaddtothesystem’s
resiliencyandbuffertheimpactoffutureuncertainties.
Recommendationsgeneratedthroughtheprocessfallintofivemajorcategories:Water
ResourceManagement;Infrastructure(Transportation,Drinking,WasteandStormwater);
Water-DependentBusiness;LandUsePlanning,ZoningandGovernance;andEcosystem
3
Management.Theserecommendationsweremadeacknowledgingpotentialbarriersto
implementationsuchaslackoffunding,politicalwill,andunderstandingofpotentialfuture
problems.
ThisreportisintendedforusebyLAMPandwatershedmanagersandplanners.Thepurposeof
thisreportisnottobeprescriptive,buttoprovideastartingpointforplannerstousewhen
engagingthepublicandincorporatingclimatechangeadaptationrecommendationsintoplans.
Introduction
Withinthelastdecade,interestintheimpactsofclimatechangehassignificantlyincreased.
Concomitantly,therehasbeenwidespreadrecognitionthatactionmustbetakentoreduce
climatechangeimpactsaswellastoadapttothepotentialchanges.Thedevelopmentof
sector-specificadaptiveplanning,however,haslaggedbehind.Thiscan,inpart,beattributed
touncertaintyandthelackoffine-scaleclimateimpactprojectionsforlocalandregionallevels
asmostprojectionsareforbroadergeographicareas(Hayhoe,etal.2008).However,predictive
modelsevenatfinerscalesmayneverbecompletelyaccurateinforecastingfuturestates.
Thus,toolstohelpunderstandandplanwithinthecontextofuncertaintyareneeded(Wack
1985).ThenortheasternUS,aregionpredictedtoexperiencebothmorefloodingassociated
withhighfrequencyrainfallsandmoredroughtsduetowarmingandlongerno-rainperiods
(Kunkeletal.2014),isoneexamplehighlightingthechallengesofplanningunderpredicted
highvariability.
Manytoolsareavailabletoassistcommunitiesinassessingtheirvulnerabilitiestotheimpacts
ofclimateintheareasofhumanhealth,infrastructure,ecosystems,andemergencyresponse,
aswellasplanningstrategiesforadaptingtothechangingclimate.Althoughtoolsare
available,informationfromprevioussurveysandstudiesacrossthenationcontinuetomakeus
awarethatthereisstillagapbetweencommunities’awarenessoftheclimateandactualaction
towardadaptation.Infact,surveyscompletedintheGreatLakesregionthatweretargetedat
localofficialsandlocalgovernmentstaff,clearlyindicatethatamajorityofcommunitiesinthe
GreatLakesregionarenotcurrentlyincorporatingclimateadaptationconceptsintotheir
planningprocesses,despitetheawarenessofcurrentandpotentialimpactsofthechanging
climate.(SeeNelson,Dawn,etal.2011.)
Alternatively,scenarioplanninghasbeenidentifiedasausefulprocessthatcanhelporganize
thinkingaboutuncertainfutures.Originallyusedbymilitariesandbusinesses,thescenario
planningprocesshasbeenusedincreasinglyinsocio-ecologicalsettingssuchastheMillennium
EcosystemAssessmenthttp://www.unep.org/maweb/en/Scenarios.aspxandtheGreatLakes
FuturesProjecthttp://uwo.ca/biology/glfp/.Thegreateststrengthoftheprocessishelpinga
diverseaudiencerecognizewhatdifferentpeoplevalueabouttheirenvironment,inthiscase
LakeOntarioanditswatershed,andhowtheiractivitiescouldimpactthoseresources.The
processisflexible,butgenerallyisbuiltfromdialogbetweenmultiplestakeholdersfromdiverse
backgrounds(suchasgovernment,scientists,businessowners,recreationalusers,
4
environmentaladvocates,andothers).Thegoalsofthedialogaretodefinethe‘system’in
question,theareaandresourcesthatarethetargetoftheexercise,andtoidentifythe
‘drivers’,i.e.theforcesorkeyinfluencesthatwillmostlikelychangethesysteminthefuture.
Projectinghowdriversmayunfoldgiverisetosimpleyetstrikingcontrastingfutures.
Althoughsubjectiveinnature,the“projected”futurestateswhicharegeneratedshouldbe
realisticandequallyplausible.Participantsdevelopalternative,logicallyconsistentstories(not
fancifulpredictions—butsimple“projections”)aboutthesystem’sfuturebasedonhowthe
identifieduncertaintiesmightunfold.Thesestoriesportrayboththepositiveandnegative
consequencesofafuture30-40yearsawayandincludeeconomic,cultural,andecological
elements.Arealstrengthofthisprocessisthat,becausethestoriesaredevelopedby
individualswhoarefamiliarwiththesystem,thestoriesreflectlocalexperiences,becomemore
believable,andareacceptedbytheparticipants.Apowerfullearningmomentresultswhen
storiesaresharedandworkshopparticipantsrecognizehowsimplebutuncertaincontrasting
incidentscanleadtocascadingevents,resultingindrasticallydifferentfutures.Inaddition,the
toolcanbeusedtoassistinidentifyingtheactionsthatcanbetakentodaytohelppreparefor
thesedifferentfuturesand,inturn,identifyactionswhichcanbenefitacommunitynomatter
whattypeoffuturearises.
ScenarioDevelopmentforLakeOntario
InSeptemberof2012,adiversesetofstakeholdersmetfortwodaysattheCornellBiological
FieldStationtoutilizethescenarioplanningprocesstoimagineandcreatefourdifferentfuture
scenarios(30-40yearsout)forLakeOntarioanditscoastalcommunities(WorkshopI).The
workshopinvolvedtwenty-fourdiversestakeholdersrepresentingresearchers,marina
operators,fishermen,smallbusinessowners,anglingorganizations,countytourismandhealth
departments,sport-fishingpromotion,charterboatindustry,cooperativeextension,State
watershedmanagers,shorelinepropertyowners,countysoilandwater,non-profitgroups,and
academicsfromtheUnitedStatesandCanada(OntarioMinistryofNaturalResources).The
participantswereinvitedbyNewYorkSeaGrant’sRecreationalFisheriesSpecialist.The
inviteeswereselectedbasedonthediversityoftheirviewsandintereststhattheyrepresent.
Inaddition,theywereselectedbasedonknowledgeoftheirabilitytoworkwellwithingroups
andnotdominateconversationsnorsimplyspeaktopositionstatementstotheexclusionof
engaginginadialogue.
Theinitialgoalofthisexercisewastoengagediverseparticipantsinadiscussiontoexchange
theirknowledge,opinionsandbeliefsonthedriversthatwillshapethefutureoftheecosystem.
Thegroupchoseclimatechange(specificallyprecipitationchanges)andpopulationgrowthas
themajoruncertainties(drivers)fordesigningtheirnarrativesaboutfutureecological,social,
economicandculturalstatesonLakeOntarioanditsbasin.ThefouridentifiedLakeOntario
futuresindependentlyidentifiedbythegroupswere:
1. DrierClimate-SlowPopulationGrowth:“BoatlessLakeOntario”
2. WetClimate-SlowPopulationGrowth:“RagingRunoff”
5
3. DrierClimate-FastPopulationGrowth:“CrowdedBeaches”
4. WetClimate-FastPopulationGrowth:“SoggyStripMalls”
Schematicdiagramsrepresentingtheconditionsassociatedwitheachscenarioweredeveloped
tohelpwiththevisualizationinsubsequentdialogs(Figurebelow).
Thegoalofthe2015projectwastousethefourscenariosasatoolinsubsequentdiscussions
aboutrecommendationsforplanningandpolicydevelopmentforaddressinguncertainties
relatedtoclimatechangeandpopulationgrowth.Thisprojectwasdesignedtobuildupon
WorkshopI,whichdevelopedthepreviouslydiscussedscenarios,asthebasisfordevelopinga
firstroundofrecommendationsforLakeandWatershedmanagersofLakeOntarioandits
watershedstoconsiderwhenamendingandcreatingplanstoaddressclimatechange.The
projectdesignincludedthreesubsequentworkshops:onewithinviteddiversestakeholders
(WorkshopII)andtheothertwo(WorkshopsIII-AandB)inareastoattractdifferentsegments
ofthegreaterpublic.
IllustrationsbyBrianWeidelandMatthewPaufve,USGS
WorkshopIIwasdesignedtobeatwo-dayeventwhichwouldengagesimilar,andsomeofthe
same,stakeholderswhoparticipatedinWorkshopI.TheprojectteamincludedmultidisciplinarygroupsfromtheGreatLakesIntegratedScienceAssessments(GLISA),Northeast
RegionalClimateCenter(NRCC),UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey(USGS),CornellUniversityand
NewYorkSeaGrant(NYSG).Inaddition,inordertoincreasethelikelihoodourfindingsbeing
utilizedbystateagencies,weinvitedtheNYSDEC’sLakeOntarioLAMPWorkGroup
6
representativetojoinourorganizationalmeetings.Ourteamincludedexpertsinextension,
waterresourceexperts,fisheries,scenarioplanning,publicparticipationaswellasclimate
change.TheultimategoalofWorkshopIIwastohaveparticipantsidentifyasuiteofplanning
actionsthatwere“win-win”,i.e.thatwould(a)addressissuesrelevanttomultiple
stakeholdertypes,and(b)simultaneouslyhelptobufferpotentialimpactsfrommorethan
oneofthefourfuturescenarios.
ThefinalproductofWorkshopIIwasadeliberatedsetofstakeholderdrivenrecommendations
forupdatingtheLAMPandlocalwatershedplans,inordertoaddressclimatechangeand
becomemoreresilient.OncewesynthesizedthefindingsfromWorkshopII,weattemptedto
verifythesefindingsandascertaintheir“acceptabilityforadoption”throughreviewbytwo
additionalindependentgroupsofstakeholders.Thiswasaccomplishedthroughinvitingthe
publictoattendtwoeveningworkshops(WorkshopsIII-AandB)indifferentareasoftheLake
OntarioBasin.Thisreportcontainsrecommendationsidentifiedas“win-win.”
ProcessEmployed
Participants
InvitationstoWorkshopIIweresentstartinginMarchandourintentwastoattractasmanyof
thesamestakeholdersaspossiblefromthe2012workshop.Ourgoalwastoengageadiverse
setofparticipants.Participantsincluded:planningagencies,federalandstateagencies,soil
andwaterconservationdistricts,environmentalandsport-fishingorganizationsaswellas
cooperativeextensionagentsrepresentingagriculturalinterests.Unlikethefirstworkshop,we
lackedbusinessandtribalrepresentation.
Presentations:MakingtheExtremesPlausible
TheNortheastRegionalClimateCenter,UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey,NewYorkSeaGrant
andCornellUniversityteammembersdraftedanddesignedpresentationswhichillustratedthe
sciencebehindtheextremesinprecipitationalongwiththepotentialimpactsontheecosystem
andhumaninfrastructure.
Forillustratingandexplainingprecipitationextremes,theteamdecidedtousespecific
historicalexamples.Presentationshighlighteddatainmapsandchartsalongwithhistorical
picturesofthoseextremeevents.Achartofobservedannualprecipitation,mapofobserved
heavyprecipitationevents,andamapofprojectedwinterprecipitationchangewereincluded
inthewetscenario.Amapofprojecteddrydays,amapofprojectedsnowcoverchange,and
chartsofobservedandprojectedlakelevelwereincludedinthedryscenario.Thisuseof“realworld”data,not“pretend”informationgaveconsiderablecredibilitytothescenarios
developedandenhancedtheengagementofourstakeholders.Eventsandpictureschosen
visualizedforworkshopattendeesthedryandwetscenariosandtheirimpactstheLakeOntario
watershed.
7
Inasimilarfashion,teammembersfromCornellandUSGSprovidedexamplesofscientifically
basedbutdifferingpotentialimpactsoncoastalandupstreamwatershedhabitatsandwater
qualityinordertoensurethefourscenariospresentresourcechangesinsubstantiallydifferent
ways.Forexample,drierconditionscouldbeassociatedwithstreamandwetlanddry-outs,
exposedshorelinesatmarinas,anddrywellswhereasgreaterprecipitationcouldbeassociated
withflooding,sedimenterosionandpollution.Inthismanner,theparticipantscould
brainstormandgeneratepotentialactionsthatcoverawiderangeoffutureecosystem
changes.Foreachscenariotheenvironmentalstressorswereexplainedaswellaspossible
opportunities.Picturesandimageswereincludedtosupporttheseimpacts.
ExistingExampleClimateAdaptionAction
SurveyshavefoundthatthemajorityofGreatLakesregionalofficialsandgovernmentstaff
werenotincorporatingclimateadaptationintoplanningprocesses,despitetheawarenessof
currentandpotentialchangingclimateimpacts(SeeNelsonetal.2011).SeaGrantprograms
andregionalorganizationshavedraftedrecommendationsandconsolidatedcasestudiesand
tools(see,forexample,Dinse.2009andwww.greatlakesresilience.org).Forthisproject,NYSG
reviewedpeerandgrayliterature,webresources,andcontactsthroughoutthebasintoidentify
activitiesthatotherGreatLakescommunitieshavetakentointegrateclimatechange
uncertaintyintotheirLAMPsorwatershedplans.This‘learningfromothers’approach
preventedduplicationofefforts.Thisworkwasconsolidatedintoaworkshoppresentation
designedtojump-startparticipantbrainstormingaboutclimatechangeadaptationplanning
approacheswithexamplestrategiesusedinotherlocationsandinothersimilardocuments.
WorkshopProcess
WorkshopIIwasdesignedtoextendovertwodaysinordertogiveparticipantstimetoknow
eachother,feelcomfortabletalkingandworkingtogether,andtogivethemtimetomullover
boththescenarioapproachitselfandtheactualscenariosforwhichplanningwastotakeplace.
Inthisway,deeperthinkingwentintotherecommendations.Groupworkoccurredaround
eachofthescenariosandfollowedadiscussionguide.Attendeesweregivenhandoutsoftheir
respectivescenarios,includingdescriptiveartworkandmainpoints(SeeAppendixA.).
Theessenceofthisexercisewasthateachgroupwaschargedtocreaterecommendationsfor
whatdecision-makersshoulddoTODAYtopreparefortheassignedscenarioPOTENTIAL
FUTURE(notingthatourfocuswasonrecommendationsforLAMPandWatershedPlans.)
Breakoutsessionsoccurredonbothdaysforatotalof3.5hours.Thekeyquestionswere:
• Whatdoyouthinkweshoulddotodaytobemorepreparedforthatpotentialfuture?
• Whatarethebarrierstoimplementingthataction?Whatarewaysaroundthebarrier?
• Whatarethesecondarybenefitsfromtakingthataction?
Afterthisroundofbrainstorming,thegroupswerereconvenedtosharerecommendations,
identifybarriersandwaysofsurmountingbarriers.Thenextstepwascritical.Thelargergroup
thenidentifiedcommonactions,missingtopics,andpotentialvenuesforpresenting
informationgeneratedattheworkshop.Theoutcomewasasetofstakeholder-driven
8
recommendationsforupdatingtheLAMPandlocalwatershedplansthataddressclimate
changeandincreaseresiliency.
Multiplerecommendationsweregeneratedthatcouldbegroupedintothefivebroad
categoriesof:waterresourcemanagement,infrastructure,planningandzoning,water-related
businesses,andecosystemmanagement.Recommendationsalsoencompassedtypesof
strategiesrangingfromeducationtoregulations.Somepowerfulrecommendedactionswere
identifiedasprovidinggoodsolutionstoaddresstheextremesofallfourscenarios.For
example,improvedcaptureofstormwaterrunoffwithincreasedinfiltrationandgroundwater
rechargewouldhelpreduceboththeproblemsoffloodinganddroughtsandincreasewater
availabilityforpopulationgrowth.Suchwin-winsolutionsrankhighpriorityforimmediate
planningaction.Otherrecommendationsofnoteincludeimprovedwaterandstormwater
management,increasedextentofriparianbuffers,wetlandandstreamhydrologyrestoration,
infrastructureimprovementandrelocation;aswellassocialrecommendationsrelatedto
governance,andlinkingjobtrainingtoenergyandenvironmentalactions.Wecreatedamatrix
tomoreconciselypackagetherecommendedactions,implementationmechanisms,and
opportunitiesforovercomingbarrierstoimplementation.Thecolumntitlesarethe
recommendationcategoriesbytopicareaandtheitemsalongthesidepresentpotential
methodsforimplementationand/ortoolsforovercomingbarrierstoimplementation.(See
AppendixB,Summaryof“Win-Win”Recommendations.)
InNovember2015,thefinalseriesofpublicengagement,WorkshopsIII-AandBwereheldat
oppositeendsoftheLakeBasin.Theaudienceconsistedofinterested(anddiverse)membersof
thepublicthatincludedlakesideresidents,environmentalactiongroups,anglers,boaters,state
legislator,environmentalmanagementagencies,waterqualitycoordinatingcommittees,and
otherconcernedcitizens.Forbothoftheseworkshops,openpublicattendancewasthefocus,
ratherthantheinvited-onlystakeholderfocusofthefirsttwoworkshops.Theseworkshops
wereorganizedtogatherpublicinputontheserecommendationstobepresentedtostateand
federalagenciesonhowtoaddressuncertaintiesrelatedtoextremeweatherpatternsand
populationchangeinlakeandwatershedmanagementplans.WorkshopsIII-AandBwereheld
inverydifferentpartsofthewatershed(RochesterandWatertown)andscheduledforevening
inthehopethatamorediverserepresentativepubliccouldattend.Apressreleasewas
generatedwhichwaspickedupby28localpapersandothermediaoutlets.Inaddition,the
GreatLakesInformationNetworkwasusedtopublicizetheworkshopsaswellastheemaillist
fortheGreatLakesActionAgendaheldbyNYSDEC.TwitterandFacebookwerealsoused.
WorkshopsIII-AandBweredesignedtobrieflysharetheuncertaintiesrelatedtoprecipitation
duetoclimatechangeanditsimpactsonoursocioecologicalsystemandthenpresentthe
synthesizedrecommendationsfromtheMayworkshop.Thegroupwasgivenaboutanhourto
rotatethroughfivestations.Eachstationhaditsowntheme:waterresourcemanagement,
infrastructure,water-dependentbusiness,landuse/zoning,andecosystemmanagement.At
eachstation,groupswereaskedtodiscusstheactionsandaddtoormodifyexistingactionsor
recommendations.Flipchartsandmarkerswereagaintheprimarytoolforgatheringinput.
Postersoftherecommendationsummarytableweremadeanddisplayedateachstation.At
9
theconclusion,thegroupswereaskedtoprioritizeallofthepresentedrecommendations.
Theyusedstickydotstodenoteonerecommendationateachstationtheyfeltwasthebest.
Overall,WorkshopsIII-AandBvalidatedthekeyactionitemsidentifiedinWorkshopII.The
prioritizationexercisehighlightedactionswithineachofthecategoriesidentifiedinWorkshopII
(waterresourcemanagement,infrastructure,planningandzoning,water-relatedbusinesses,
andecosystemmanagement).Inaddition,WorkshopsIII-AandBhighlightedadditionalareas
forinquiry,suchasmanagementofonsitewastewatertreatmentanddisposalsystems.
StakeholderGeneratedRecommendations
Belowaretherecommendationsgeneratedbystakeholderswhoparticipatedintheworkshops.Given
thetimeavailableduringtheworkshop,theycoverabroadrangeoftopics,generally,andreflectthe
typeofactionsthisdiversestakeholdergroupfeltwouldbeappropriateforaddressingbothextremes
associatedwithclimatechangegeneratedprecipitationandpopulationgrowth.Readersofthisreport
mayhaveadditionalinformationandknowledgebeyondthatoftheworkshopparticipants,suchas
existingrequirements,newinitiativesandothernuanceddetails.However,theserecommendationsare
significanttoallreadersastheyillustratethewealthoflocalknowledge,localprioritiesandaneedfor
morepublicengagementandeducationrelatedtopotentialimpactsofuncertainfuturesonlakeand
watershedresources.
WaterResourceManagement
RecommendedAction#1:Providestormwaterstoragefeatures(bothnaturalandman-made)tohave
amoreconsistentwatersupplyduringdroughts(sourceofsupply)whileprovidingsomeflood
mitigationandstorageduringwetperiods(sourceofasink).
DiscussionThisactionistargetedatstormwatermanagementpractices.Manytimesthefocuson
stormwateroccursduringweteventsandthus,manyoftherecommendationsareforthesetypesof
precipitationevents.However,stormwaterfeaturesthatretainwatercanbehelpfulfordrought
situations.Potentialresponsestothisrecommendationcouldincludetheuseofretention/detention
pondsandrechargestructureswhereapplicable,aswellasothergreeninfrastructureapproaches.The
useofstormwaterstructuresforstoragewillallowwatertobeavailableindrytimes.Suchstructures
couldbeusedforresidentialandagriculturalwatersupplyneeds.
Barriers
• Knowledgeofhowtocorrectlybuildandmaintain
• Costs
• Publicdislikeforlocatingwaterstoragenearhomes
• Childsafety
• Locating,developingandbuildingretentionstructures
• Appropriatetechnologyandengineeringspecificationsforstructurecapacity
10
PotentialSolutions
• Educationofthepublicandsomestakeholdergroupsabouttheneedandbenefitsofthese
structurescouldgenerategrassrootssupport
• Cost/benefitanalysisorothereconomicstudiescouldmoreclearlyillustraterelativebenefits
• Enlistingthesupportof,andworkingcloselywith,engineersandclimatologistscouldleadto
moretechnicalinformationforsitinganddesigning
• Outreach
• Usepublicareas,easementsandlandtrusts
• Improveturfmanagementandothervegetativeapproachestocontrollingandstoringwater
RecommendedAction#2:Managestormwaterforwaterqualityandbeneficialuse.
DiscussionStormwatermanagementwasdiscussedbyallgroupsinallextremes.Thisrecommendation
focusesonenhancingwaterqualityofstormwater.Itcallsforimprovedstandardsandtechnologyfor
stormwatermanagementespeciallyinareaswhereexistingstormwaterregulationsarenotapplicable.
DuringWorkshopIII,aparticipantarguedthatthefloodingandwaterqualityissuesattheLake’sedge
couldnotbeaddressedwithoutalsopayingattentiontolanduseandstormwateractivitiesinthe
headwaters.Unintendedbenefitsincludepublicgreenspace,healthystreamsandwetlands,reduced
erosion,improvedsoilhealth,andimprovedpublichealthandsafety.
Barriers
• Lackofpoliticalwilltoexpandcoverage,strengthenand/orenforcestormwaterregulations
• Neednewandimprovedengineeringtechnologyandstandards
• Needtoupdatebestmanagementpracticesandregulations
• Needmorefundingforimprovingongoinglong-termmanagementoversightand
implementation
• PoliticsaredrivenbydownstateNewYork
• Zoninglawswhichallowbuildinginhighriskareas
PotentialSolutions
• Educationandoutreachprogramsforthepublicaswellasspecificstakeholdergroups
• Publicandprivatepartnershipstocreateimprovedstandardsandpractices
• Createstormwatermanagementpartnershipsbetweenlakefrontpropertyownersandupstreamfarmersfacilitatedbyactionfromtowns,countiesandothermunicipalitiesinorderto
bettermanageandinvestinwatermanagementand/orstormwatercontrols
• Researchrelatedtothepractices
• Useinter-municipalagreementsonlargerscaleandmoveresourcesupanddownstreamto
investinsolvingproblemsonawatershedbasis
• Increasefundingforcommunitygroups,watershedgroups,countyenvironmentalmanagement
councils,waterqualitycoordinatingcouncils,etc.toimplementon-the-groundwaterquality
projects
RecommendedAction#3:Considerappropriateallocationandvaluationofcleanwaterresources
throughoutthebasin.
DiscussionComprehensivewaterusepolicyisneeded.Existingregulatorywaterwithdrawalprograms
areactiveinNewYorkbutonlyforsystemswhichhavethecapacitytoextract100,000gallonsperday
11
ormore.Localgovernmentsshouldconsiderchargingforthetruecostofcleanwater.Ifgovernments
and/orbusinessesmoveclosertovaluingwaterattruecostrates,watermanagementmayimprove.
Barriers
• Lackofwatershedgroupsadvocatingforthepractice
• Waterisnotpricedsoastoreflectthetruecostofmaintainingapotable,sustainablesupply
• Noseverancetaximposedonwaterasonothernaturalresources(oil,gas,etc.)
• Lackofpoliticalwill
• Needtoprotectthepolitically/economicallydisadvantaged
PotentialSolutions
• Educationandoutreachtothepublicandtargetedstakeholdergroups
• Learnfromtrendsinourhistoricuse
• Semanticsofhownewallocationruleswouldbepresented
• Researchontherealcostsofprovidingcleanwater
• Encouragepublicprivatepartnershipsandcollaborations
• Usecapitaluseplans
• Protectwatersupply;moreemphasisonwaterconservation/use
• Meterwater,includingbothpublicsuppliesandwells,tobetterunderstandusage
• Taxchargeforuseandextractionoftheresource
RecommendedAction#4:Enhancewaterandenvironmentalqualitymonitoringprogramsfor
waterwaysthroughimprovedcollaborationandpublicinvolvement.
DiscussionMonitoringisrecognizedasacriticalelementforsuccessfulpreparation,planningand
adaptationtoclimatechange.However,monitoringprogramsareunderfundedandneedtobe
improvedbyextensivenetworking.Monitoringeffortsshouldbecomprehensive,coveringmanypartsof
thewatershed.Thisitemwasprioritizedatthefollow-upworkshops.
Barriers
• Capacityoftheactivity(whethergovernment,academicorvolunteermonitoring)
• Fundingavailabilityfortheactivity
• Needtosynthesizedataandidentifywhereprogramsaremostneededsothateffortsarenot
duplicated
PotentialSolutions
• Governmentshouldpartnerwithschoolsandstudentconservationgroupstoexpandcapacity
andcoverage
• Expandcapacity,outreach,andsupportforexistingpublic/privatecollaborativeeffortssuchas
CSLAPandWAVE
• Enhancedvolunteerprograms(includingK-12)withproperqualityassurance/qualitycontrol
procedures
12
Infrastructure(Transportation,Wastewater,Drinkingwater,Stormwater)
RecommendedAction#5:Defineandprioritizeneededinfrastructureupgradesandimprovementsfor
maintainingorenhancingwaterquality,including(wherepossible)movingcriticaldrinking,
wastewater,andtransportationinfrastructureoutoffloodplains.
DiscussionThisactionaddressesamonumentaltaskofassessing,prioritizingandupgrading(oreven
relocating)infrastructurewhichsupportsourtransportationsystemaswellaswatermanagement
systems.Muchofourtransportationnetworkincludesextensive,minimallymanagedroadsideditch
networksandculvertswhicharenowundersizedduetochangesinupstreamlanduseaswellas
changesinfrequencyandintensityofseverestormevents.Insomeinstances,theincreaseduseof
greeninfrastructurecanassistinsomewatermanagementissues.Thisrecommendationalsoaddresses
wastewatertreatmentplants,septicsystems,therepairofallaginginfrastructure,anddealingwith
leaksinallofthesesystems.Theconstructionandmaintenanceofstormwatercontrol/prevention
systems,improvementofpublictransportation,andrelocationofwastewatertreatmentanddrinking
waterplantsoutoffloodplainscouldbeincludedinthisaction.Anunintendedbenefitisefficiencyand
benefitstogreenenvironments.DuringWorkshopIIItheexpenseofinfrastructurerelocationwas
stressedasanissueandapotentialsolutionwasnotedastheimplementationofbermsandother
physicalpracticestoprotectexistinginfrastructureinvulnerablelocations.
Barriers
• Lackofconsensusonhowtoprioritizeneedswithinandbetweenthesectors
• Fundingforinfrastructureimprovements
• Technicalexpertiseandfundingislackingforinspectionandengineering
• Differencesinmanagementduetohomerulemaydiscourageprioritizationandefficiencies
• Nostatelevelcoordination
PotentialSolutions
• Educatethepublicandfacilitatecross-municipalboundarydiscussions
• Provideeconomicanalysesondifferentscalestoassistdecision-makers
• Enactgrowthboundaries
• Increaseconnectionswithschools,vocationaltech
• Createjobs,labor
• Developwaterdistricts
• Improveinspectionandmaintenanceoperations
• Developincentivesforinter-municipalcooperationinwatershedmanagement
• Encourageserviceagreementsamonglocalgovernmentsandpoolresourcesaccordingly
• Developusesforwastewater
• RealignFEMAreimbursementforreplacementcosts(astheexistingprogramsdonotallowfor
improvementjustreplacement)
RecommendedAction#6:Sitealltypesofinfrastructure(drinkingwater,wastewater,transportation)
inordertopromotesustainablecommunitygrowth.
DiscussionThisrecommendationurgesgovernmentstoplaninfrastructureforgrowthsuchthatpublic
infrastructure(suchaswaterandsewer)areprovidedinareastargetedforgrowththusavoiding
13
inadvertentbuildingboomsduetotheprovisionofpublicservices.Proactiveplanningwouldpreparefor
infrastructureexpansionaheadofgrowth.Thiswouldallowinfrastructuretobeproperlyupdatedasitis
builtandimproved,removingtheneedforcostlyexpansionsinthefuture.Thoughtfuldecisionscanbe
maderegardinglocationsastoavoidbuildinginvulnerableareas.
Barriers
• Lackofdata(water,population,androadconditions)
• Lackofflexiblepolicies
• Reactivepolicies
• Homerulepreventsconsideringgrowthplansacrossgovernments
• Lackoflocalcontractorswithexperienceingreeninfrastructuretechnology
PotentialSolutions
• Improvedatamanagement
• Developproactiveandflexiblepolicies
• Encourageregional/metropolitaninter-municipalcooperationandcollaboration
RecommendedAction#7:Developdesignstandardsandalternatesystemsspecificationforgreen
infrastructure,alternatetransportationmodes,alternativeusesandtreatmentofwastewaterand
otheralternativeformsofinfrastructure.
DiscussionCarefulconsiderationforalternativeusesofwastewaterareneeded.Thisactionincludesthe
needfornewandfrequentlyupdateddesigncriteria,proactivegrowthmanagementandplanning
(prepareinfrastructureandlanduseinadvanceofpopulationboom),openspaceplanning,selectiveuse
oftollroadsandmasstransitalternatives.Unintendedbenefitsaremoreefficient,fasterfixesanda
possibledecreaseintaxes.OncereviewedduringWorkshopIII,morebasicrecommendationswere
addedsuchassepticsystemmaintenanceandinspections,enforcementofexistingandnewstandards
aswellasreducingcombinedandsanitaryseweroverflow,andconnectingcommunitiesthrough
greenways.
Barriers
• Lackofengineeringknowledge
• Lackofstandardsandspecifications
• Funding
PotentialSolutions
• Requirecontractorstolearnaboutgreeninfrastructureaspartoflicensingandcertifications
• Givebusinessesincentivesforinstallinggreeninfrastructure
• Consideradding“energy”infrastructure(couldprovidefuturesavings)
LandUsePlanning,ZoningandGovernance
RecommendedAction#8:Encourageandpromotetheuseofopenspaceforwaterrechargeand
storage.
Discussion:Thisrecommendationpromoteslanduseplanningandzoningwhichkeepswateronthe
landscapeandpromotesthecreationandprotectionofopenspace,greenspace,andforestareasto
14
protectwaterqualityandeaseflooding,increaseswaterinfiltrationandgroundwaterstorage,and
increaseswatershedreforestation.Thiscouldbeaccomplishedthroughcreatingspecialmanagement
areastoprotect/maintainwetlandsandstreamcorridorsandreturnfloodplainstonaturalconditions.
Thisissuewasprioritizedatthefollow-upworkshops.Unintendedbenefitsareerosioncontrol,less
runoff,moregreenspace,moreinfiltration,reductioninpropertydamageandanincreaseinpublic
safety.
Barriers
• Reluctancetochange
• Needatimelineforshiftoflandscapetoopenspace
• Landownerrightsandperceptionsofthesefacilities
• Lackofpoliticalwilltorequireopenspace
• Lackoffunding
PotentialSolutions
• Education,outreach,andcollaboration
• Createfinancialincentivesthroughtaxesorgrants
• Buildflexibilityintoregulatoryprocesses
• Morelandbankingordevelopmentrightsprograms
RecommendedAction#9:Revitalizetheurbancoretoconcentratethepopulationandreduce
infrastructurecost.
DiscussionThisactionincludesencouragingdevelopment/redevelopmentinexistingurbanareas,
makingtheurbancorebetter,notjustcitiesbutalsohamletsandvillages.Thiswillreduce
infrastructuremaintenanceandreduceinfrastructureneedsfornewerdevelopmentinruralareas.
Barriers
• Continueddevelopmentofnew“bedroom”communities
• Needjobsintheurbanareas
• Culturalbarriers
• Imbalanceofpoliticalwill
PotentialSolutions
• Beginbybringingthosewithlimitedmobility,suchastheelderly,andbuildademandforhuman
services(retail,medical,dental)intheurbancore
• Allowfordenserpopulationsinhamlets
RecommendedAction#10:Discourageandphaseoutdevelopmentinareasvulnerabletoflooding.
DiscussionThisincludesbetterlocalplanningandfloodplainmanagementthatdiscourages
developmentinfloodproneareaswhilemaintainingnaturalflowregimesofriversandstreamsand
reducingrisk.Unintendedbenefitsareflourishingfishandwildlife,improvedbiogeochemicalprocesses,
andreconnectinghumanswithnature.
15
Barriers
• Currentzoninglawsdonotadequatelypreventdevelopmentinfloodplains
• Propertyrightsadvocatesmayopposeanymovementtorestrictdevelopmentrights,evenfor
legitimatepublichealthandsafetyandenvironmentalreasons
• Inabilityofpropertyownerstomove
• Propertytaxissues
• Existingpublicinfrastructure,includingroadstotheseproperties
• Lackoffundingtomovepeopleoutofthoseareas
• Psychologicalunwillingnesstomove
• Subsidedfloodinsurancesupportslivinginareasinhighriskofflooding
PotentialSolutions
• Reassesspropertyvalueswithrisksinmind
• Improvezoninglawstoreducedevelopmentinfloodplainsanddiscouragefuturedevelopment
• Uselandtrustsandeasementprogramstopreventdevelopmentorredevelopment
• StrengthenFEMAcommunityratingsystem(educationandfundstomove)
• Useaphasedapproach(nonewbuildings)topreventingnewdevelopmentandthencurtailing
redevelopment
• Increaseinsuranceratestodissuadeadditionalbuilding
• Encouragelandswapsbecauseoftrueregionalplanning
• Usetaxincentivestogetpeopleoutofhighriskareas
RecommendedAction#11:Promoteappropriateuseofbrownfieldsandrestorationwherepossiblein
ordertoimprovetheenvironmentandtheeconomy.
DiscussionTheuseofbrownfieldsnotonlycleansuptheimmediatearea,improvingthelocal
environmentandpotentiallyreducingcontaminantsinrunoff,butalsoallowsotherspacetoremain
undeveloped,green,andopen.Thecleanupandredevelopmentofbrownfieldscreatesjobsandmay
increasenearbypropertyvalues.
Barriers
• Facilitatinginfrastructureisnotready
• Group’slackofknowledge
• Funding
PotentialSolutions
• GrantsandlowinterestloansavailablefromEPA’sBrownfieldsprogram
• TechnicalassistanceandjobtrainingfromEPA’sBrownfieldsprogram
RecommendedAction#12:Mitigateimpactsofclimatechangeonvulnerablepopulationsbyproviding
additionaltransportation,infrastructure,andeducationresourcesforthesegroups.
DiscussionClimatechangedisproportionatelyaffectselderly,young,sick,disabled,andlow-income
people.Thesepopulationsneedeasilyaccessibleassistancefromsocialservicedepartments.
Sustainablecommunitiescanbesupportedbyagriculturallandandcommunitycooperation.Freeand
16
reliablepublictransportationcanprovideaccesstojobs,schools,andmedicalservicesforthosewho
cannotaffordtheirowntransportationorwhoareunabletodrive.Thisalsotiesintothetransportation
recommendationofalternatetransportationmodes;betterpublictransportationwillbenefitthe
communityasawhole.Educationandtrainingforexistingjobscancreateneededemployeesfor
updatinginfrastructure.
Barriers
• Funding
• Lackofcoordinationofcommunityandgovernmentprograms
PotentialSolutions
• Bonds,grants
• Educationandoutreach
• IncreaseresourcestoDepartmentofSocialServicesOfficeoftheAging,emergingtechnology
andmedicalservices
• CreatepartnershipsamongDSSprogramsanddepartments
• Designsustainablecommunities
RecommendedAction#13:PlanningandzoningshouldincorporateprinciplesofEcosystemBased
Management.
DiscussionWatershed,wildlifeandotherhabitats,sourcewaterprotectionareas,andothernatural
boundarieswouldbeusedasabaselinefordevelopingplanningandzoningrules.Ecosystemservices
(AKAsocietalbenefitsfromhealthyenvironments)suchasbiodiversity,waterquality,floodcontrol,
waterretention,soilconservation,erosioncontrol,etc.wouldbeusedindecision-makingatthelocal
levelforplanningandzoning.Somecommunitiesalreadyusethesecriteriatoscoredevelopment
(naturalcapitalscore)duringtheirapprovalprocesses.Thisadditionalrecommendationfromthe
follow-upworkshopwassharedbyseveralattendees.Inaddition,StateParkDepartmentcan
demonstratevariouspracticesonpubliclandswhichwillachievethesegoalsinordertoprovethatthe
conceptswork.Inaddition,landcanbeconservedthroughhavingworkingforestconservation
easementson“smaller”privatewoodlots.
Barriers
• Existingassumptionsinplanningmaypreventthisapproach
• Naturalfeaturesmaynotalignwithmunicipalboundaries
PotentialSolutions
• Considerregionalapproachestogovernance
• UsemoreofaCouncilofGovernmentsapproach
Water-DependentBusinesses(Agriculture,Tourism,RecreationalBoating&Fishing)
RecommendedAction#14:Integrateagriculturalpracticeswithenergyproduction(suchasbiomass
energy).
DiscussionTheagriculturalindustryhasahistoryincreatingvalue-addedproducts.Newtechnologiesin
thesectoralreadyexist,suchasbiofuels.Investmentinthecreationofevenmoretechnologieswhich
17
createmultiplebenefits,especiallyfromwastes,willmakethewatershedmoreresilientinthefuture.
Bettermanagementofagriculturalwastesfromlargerdairieswillreducewaterqualityrisksandimprove
aesthetics(reducenutrientrunoffandassociatedimpactssuchanuisanceand/orharmfulalgalblooms).
Barriers
• Costofconstruction
• Lackofproventechnology
• Accessibilitytofinancingandtechnology
• Licensingofnewfacilities
• Decommissioningofexistingfacilities
PotentialSolutions
• Needagriculturalandelectricalengineeringexpertise
• UseBOCESinstructorsandstudentstotrainonnewtechnology
• Incomefrompotentialwaterandenergysavingsandenergygeneration
• Providefarmerswithincentivestoimplementbestpractices
RecommendedAction#15:Promoteresearchanddevelopmentofnewagriculturaltechnologiesas
wellasnewindustriesandjobsrelatedtothesetechnologies.
DiscussionThisactionincludespromotingresearchanddevelopment,updatingbestmanagement
practices,reducingimpactsontheenvironment,andcreatingeconomicbenefitfromfarm-wasteand
biomassenergyprojects.Therecommendedactionsupportsanincreasedfocusontechnology
developmentrelatedtoagriculture.Investinginresearchanddevelopmentfornewtechnologieswhich
wouldprovidefarmerswithevidence-basedinformationthatnewapproachesarebeneficialandcost
effective.Inaddition,theresearchfindingsshouldbedemonstratedinthefield.Demonstration
projectsshowinghowpotentialnewcropsandcrop-relatedtechnologiesworkwouldprovidegrowers
withprovenmodelssuitableforchanginggrowingconditions.Unintendedbenefitsofthisactivityare
moreefficientuseoflandandenergy,increaseinjobsandchangeinjobstructuretomoreeconomically
viablejobs.
Barriers
• Fundinglimitedforresearchandstart-upbusinesses
• Comfortandperceivedreducedriskincontinuingtousetestedtechniquesandpractices
PotentialSolutions
• Costsharingofnewimplementationpractices(example:Methanedigestersonlivestock
manure,biomassenergy,moreclimateresistantcrops)
• Usepublicand/orprivatefundingfornewtechnologyresearchand/ordemonstrationprojects
• Educationandoutreachforthepublicalongwithcollaborationwithpublicandprivatesectors
• Regulatoryreformtoallowfornewpractices
• AmendFarmBilltomeetsustainablefarmingneedsthroughnewtechnologiesandpractices
RecommendedAction#16:Considerencouraginggreenhouseproductionofagriculturalproductsto
expandindustry.
18
DiscussionEvenindrytimes,ourregionwilllikelyhavemorewaterthanotherpartsofthecountry.
Enhancingcontrolledenvironmentalagriculture(greenhouses)canmaintainagriculturalproductionin
theregionandaugmentproductionofsomecrops.AsplaceslikeCaliforniaexperiencemoredroughts
andhaveareducedcapacitytoproducecropssuchastomatoesandspinach,NewYorkcanbenefitby
utilizinggreenhousestogrowthesetypesofcropsirrespectiveoftheseason.
Barriers
• Fewloansavailableforthispractice
• Researchneededonbestpracticesandsustainabletypesofstructuresforourarea(heavy
snowfalls,frequentcloudcover);energyintensive
• Shiftsinclimate(increasedintemperatures)mayreducetheneed
PotentialSolutions
• Governmentprogramsforloans
• Educationandoutreach
• Federalandstatecost-shareandgrants
• Relyonourclimatologistsforpredictingshiftsinclimate
RecommendedAction#17:Enhanceresiliencyofrecreationandtourismindustriesbyplanningfor
increasedclimatevariability.
DiscussionWarmertemperaturewillleadtoachangeinicecover,snowversusrain,andwarmerwater
temperatures.Icefishingandsnowsportsmaygivewaytolongerfishingandboatingseasons.Existing
recreationandtourismbusinesseswillneedtoprepareforthesechanges.Increasedrecreation
opportunitiessuitabletobothwetanddryconditionswillhelpmaintainahealthyeconomic
environmentaslongasweensurepublicaccesstowater.Focusingonenvironmentally-basedtourism
simultaneouslyincreaseseconomicvitalityandfostersmoreresilientlandscapes.Thisrecommendation
alsocouldsupportanewNationalMarineSanctuaryfortheLake.
Barrier • Fundingforindustrypromotion
PotentialSolutions
• Raisefundsforinvestmentthroughsellingthewater
• Makeconnectionswithcommunityleaders
• Incomefromtourism
• Increaseuseofunder-utilizedbywayssuchas(Seawaytrail,N.Adirondacks,Olympicandblack
rivermaple)asamethodtoincreasetourism
RecommendedAction#18:Supportfisheriesmonitoringandresearchtoprovideinformationtoguide
stockingdecisionsinachangingclimate.
DiscussionClimatechange,especiallyincreasesintemperatureandchangesinprecipitationpatterns,
mayimpactwhichfishspeciesorstrainsarebestsuitedtoliveandbreedinLakeOntario.Continued
19
(andimproved)supportoffisheriesmonitoringandresearchisneededtoprovidereliableinformation
forresponsivemanagementdecisionsregardingfishstockinginachangingclimate.
Barriers
• Fundsforresearch
• Newequipmentforhatcheriestoraisedifferentspecies
PotentialSolutions
• Protectandenhancein-lakeandspawninghabitatsformultiplespecies,andencouragenatural
(wild)reproductionofsportfish.
• Diversifypreyfishandsportfishpopulationsbysupportingrestorationofnativespecies.
EcosystemManagement
RecommendedAction#19:Restoreandprotectstreamsandwetlandsthroughoutthebasin.
DiscussionRestoringthehydrologyofthebasinwillhelpintimesofdroughtorflooding.The
recommendationcallsforprotecting,enhancing,andrestoringthenaturalhydrologicregimeofstreams,
lakes,wetlands,riparianbuffers,uplandareasofwatersheds,andotherareastorestorehydrology.
Unintendedbenefitsofimplementingthisactioncouldbeimprovedfishandwildlifehabitat,reduced
algalblooms,increasedcommunityresilience,improvedresidentqualityoflife,improved
biogeochemicalprocesses,reducedmosquitopopulationsandrelateddisease,andincreased
reconnectionofhumanswiththeirnaturalenvironment.
Barriers
• Expense,limitedfunds
• Propertyownersmaynotsupportrestorationorprotectionmeasures
• Zoningmayencouragelossordegradationofthesefeatures
• Publicresistance/perceptiontochangesinthewetlandsandstreamcorridors
• Lackofcurrentregulationfortheamountofwaterextractedfromgroundwaterwhichfeeds
streamsandwetlands
PotentialSolutions
• Educationandgrassrootssupport
• Increaseunderstandingofthelinkbetweenhealthystreamsandwetlandsandarobust
economy
• Economicanalysesmayshowbenefits
• Monitorandinventorycurrentwatershedresources
• Determinevalueofnaturalresources
• Provideincentivesforhomeowners/privatepropertyownersforprotectingthesefeatures
throughdevelopingaprogramthatpaysforecosystemservices
• Watershed-basedgovernancewouldprotectthesefeatures
RecommendedAction#20:Createandenhancesystemsforearlydetectionandresponsetonew
invasivespecies(pest,plant,animalandaquatic).
20
DiscussionInvasivespecieshavethreatenedourcoastal,riparian,wetland,andlakefoodwebresources
andthesespeciesinvasionsarelikelytoincrease.Currently,invasivespeciescosttheGreatLakesregion
millionsofdollarsannually.Proactiveresponsesneedtobetakentodevelopcomprehensive
monitoringprogramsfornewinvasivespecies.
Barriers
• Informationgapsregardingpotentialinvadersandchangesintheenvironment
• Publicdistrustorlackofbeliefinscience
PotentialSolutions
• EnhancePartnershipforRegionalInvasiveSpeciesManagement(PRISM)capacity
• Redefine“whatisinvasive”giventhepotentialchangesintheenvironment
• Increaseoutreachtopeoplewhoareinjobsandenjoyrecreationalpursuitsthatplacethemin
habitatslikelytoharbornewinvasivespecies
RecommendedAction#21:Increaseearlydetectionofhumanandanimalpathogens(newones,and
increasesinoccurrenceofexistingones)thatassociatedwithwater-relatedvectors.
DiscussionAswithinvasivespecies,newandexistingpathogensmayfindthattheincreasing
temperaturesandassociatedecologicalchangesduetoclimatechangemakethebasinahospitable
habitat.Theapproachshouldbesimilartoinvasivespecies:improvedandmorecomprehensive
monitoringanddetectiontechnology.Also,improvedaccesstohealthcarewillassistinidentifying
potentialillnessesfromthesenewpathogens.
Barriers
• Lackofcapacity(funds,technology,andtrainedstaff)
• Lackofmonitoringanddiagnosticdesigns
• Potentialnewpathogensarecurrentlyunknownthreats
PotentialSolutions
• Investintechnologytodetectnewpathogens
• Improvenaturalresourcemanagers’connectionstoresearchersandmedicalcommunity
• Improveconnectiontoplaceswheretheyalreadylivewiththeseissues
• Willingnesstoimplementrecommendations(outreach)
• Studyfishdisease(tobetterunderstandhowthesepathogensspreadandhowtheycanbe
treated)
PotentialNextSteps
ThepurposeofthisreporttoinformLakeandWatershedManagersandPlannersabouttheabove
recommendationactionthatcanbetakennowtoprepareforuncertaintiesrelatedtotheneedfor
climatechangeadaptationfromtheperspectivesofthosewhowork,liveandplayintheLakeOntario
basin.Therecommendationsweregeneratedbydiversestakeholdergroupsusingasaresourceonly
thefourpotentialfuturescenariosdifferentiatedbydifferentextremeprecipitationandpopulation
21
growthpatterns.Therecommendationsarepowerfulbecausetheyarewin-winsolutionsthatmaximize
resiliencetoawiderangeofconditionsandfuturesandbecausetheyaregeneratedinaroomofdiverse
stakeholders.Theseactionsandideasaredesignedtobeusedwhenengagingthepublicinother
planningprocesses(localorregional)asyouseektoincludeclimatechangeprovisionsinnewand
existingplans.Manyoftherecommendationshavebenefitsbeyondthoseassociatedwithclimate
changeandthusmayalreadybepresentinyourplanning.Ideasforpresentingtheserecommendations
areasfollows.
FactSheets
Thesecompiledrecommendations,barriersandsolutionscouldbethebasisforfactsheetsproducedto
fullydescribeeachpractice,theexistingregulatoryorvoluntaryimplementationmechanisms,existing
fundingsources,otherbenefitsandcostsofimplementationaswellasothertypesoftrade-offs
necessarytotakeaspecificaction.Byusingsuchfactsheetsinaplanningprocess,allparticipantscan
bebroughttothesamelevelofunderstandingonvariousissues.
LocalScenarioPlanning
Theprocessusedtogeneratetheserecommendationscouldbeusedonatasmallerwatershedscale
and/oroverashorterperiodoftimewithaconsistentgroupofdiversestakeholdersinordertorefine
andtailortherecommendationsbasedonlocalknowledgeofwatermanagementpractices,
infrastructureissuesandconcerns,businessclimate,ecosystembenefitsandconcernsaswellasother
morespecificandlocalbarrierstoimplementation.Thisprocesswouldbebestrunwithlocalexpertsin
planning,policy,naturalsciencesandeconomicsparticipatingaswell.
“Strawman”
Analternateusecouldbetosimplypresenttheserecommendationsalongwithinformationofhowthey
weregeneratedinordertostartadiscussionofhowamorelocalizedorlake-basedplanningprocess
couldincorporatetheseideas.Thus,therecommendationswouldserveasastartingpoint.
Conclusion
Publicandstakeholderengagementinplanningisimportantfordevelopingasenseofownershipina
planandforincreasingthelikelihoodofitsimplementation.Particularlyinahomerulestatesuchas
NewYork,manyoftherecommendedactionspresentedaremostappropriatelyimplementedatthe
localscale.Publicandstakeholdersupportisimportantingeneratingthepoliticalwillforpolicychange.
Itishopedthatthisreportwillbeusedtostartdialogsandexpandthinkingabouthowplanningfor
climatechangeshouldoccurintheLakeOntariobasinandhowplanningunderhighuncertaintycan
advance.
22
References
Dinse,K.,J.Read,andD.Scavia.2009.PreparingforClimateChangeintheGreatLakesRegion.[MICHU
09-103]AnnArbor,MI:MichiganSeaGrant
Kunkel,K.E.,L.E.Stevens,S.E.Stevens,L.Sun,E.Janssen,D.Wuebbles,J.Rennells,A.DeGaetano,and
J.G.Dobson,2013:RegionalClimateTrendsandScenariosfortheU.S.NationalAssessment,Part1.
ClimateoftheNortheastU.S.,NOAATechnicalReportNESDIS142-1,80pp.
GreatLakesCoastalResilience,cited2015:GLCRPlanningGuide-CaseStudies.[Availableonlineat
www.greatlakesresilience.org/case-studies.]
Hayhoe,K.,C.Wake,B.Anderson,X.Liang,E.Maurer,J.Zhu,J.Bradbury,A.DeGaetano,A.M.Stoner,
andD.Wuebbles,2008.RegionalclimatechangeprojectionsfortheNortheastUSA,MitigAdaptStrat
GlobChange13:425–436.
MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,cited2015:EcosystemsandHumanWell-Being[Availableonlineat
http://www.unep.org/maweb/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf.]
Nelson,D.,H.Elmer,R.Held,D.Forsythe,andS.Casey,2011:LaurentianGreatLakesBasinClimate
ChangeAdaptation.NOAATechnicalMemorandumGLERL-153,43pp.
Peterson,G.D.,G.S.CummingandS.R.Carpenter,2003.ScenarioPlanning:aToolforConservationinan
UncertainWorld,17(2)ConservationBiology358-366.
Wack,Pierre.1985.Scenarios:UnchartedWatersAhead,HarvardBusinessReviewSept-Oct73-89.
Walker,B.,CarpenterS.,Anderies,J.,Abel,N.,Cumming,G.,Janssen,M.,Lebel,L.,Norberg,J.,Peterson,
G.D.,Pritchard,R.2002.2.Resiliencemanagementinsocial-ecologicalsystems:aworkinghypothesis
foraparticipatoryapproach.ConservationEcology6(1):14.[Availableonlineat
http://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss1/art14]
WesternUniversity,cited2015:GreatLakesFuturesProject.[Availableonlineat
http://uwo.ca/biology/glfp]
23
Appendices
AppendixA………………………………………………………………………………………….Page25
FourScenarios
AppendixB……………………………………………………………………………………………Page29
Summaryof“Win-Win”Recommendations
24
Boatless Ontario
Drier, Slow-Growth Population
Climate Scenario Details
drier
• Warming temperatures (especially winter)
• More intense short (seasonal) and long-term (multi-year) droughts
• Less snowpack contributes to summer drought
Population Scenario Details
economy
land use
• Compared to other U.S.
states, NY experience slower
population growth
IMPACTED
SECTOR
Land
Water/Lakes
Ecosystem
Human
•Increased dairy production
and water allocation to dairy
Precipitation Driver
(Increased Drought)
• Slower economic growth and
fewer business opportunities
•Increased nuclear energy
Temperature Driver
(Warmer Air
Temperatures)
Population Driver
(Slow Growth)
• Surface soils dry out
• Exposed shorelines
• Decreased property values from aesthetic
changes to lakeshore
• Longer growing season
• Slow conversion of land use
• Lake levels fall
• Reduced stream flows
• Wetlands dry out
• Warmer lake waters
• Less ice cover
• More evaporation
• Increased contamination
of raw water sources from
agricultural sector
• Greater irrigation demands
• Loss of lake and wetland habitat
• Fewer fish spawning sites
• Increased risk of fire
• Increased intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms
(HABs)
• Fewer cold refugia
• Fewer cold water fish species
• Increase in southern invasive
species
• Lower lake oxygen
• More agricultural pollutants
• Increased intensity of
Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
• Greater water• use demands/diminished well
water supplies
• Increased need for water quality management
• Increased need for drought planning and
water conservation policy
• Higher irrigation costs
• Economic stress (i.e., crop losses, lake/
shoreline industry losses, etc)
• Increased risk of fire
• Increased health risks from
extreme heat events
• Increased urban heat island
effects
• Increased risk of dangers and
damages from freezing rain
events
• More agricultural pollution
treatment needed
Raging Runoff
Wetter, Slow-Growth Population
Climate Scenario Details
wetter
• Northeast is wetter but this isn’t evenly distributed by season or event
• Warming temperatures (especially winter)
• Extreme precipitation events more frequent
•More winter precipitation
• More precipitation is projected to fall as rain rather than snow
Population Scenario Details
economy
land use
• Compared to other U.S.
states, NY experience slower
population growth
IMPACTED
SECTOR
Land
Water/Lakes
Ecosystem
Human
•Increased unsustainable plant
based biofiuel and animal
based agriculture
Precipitation Driver
(Increased Precipitation)
• Struggling alternative energy
market and economy
•Political stagnancy and
inflexibility
Temperature Driver
(Warmer Air
Temperatures)
Population Driver
(Slow Growth)
• More stormwater runoff
• Lakeshore/river flooding
• Increased scour, erosion
• Increased gully formation
• Increased sediments
• Increased property damage from floods
• Restricted building in flood prone areas
• Longer growing season
• Slow conversion of land use
• Lake levels rise
• More stream flooding
• Erosive wave activity
• Warmer lake waters
• Less ice cover
• More evaporation
• Increased contamination
of raw water sources from
agricultural sector
• Greater irrigation demands
• Increased intensity of Harmful Algal
Blooms (HABs)
• Lower lake oxygen
• Fewer cold refugia
• Fewer cold water fish species
• Increase in southern invasive
species
• More agricultural pollutants
• Increased intensity of
Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
• Sewer overflows
• Increased need for water and water
quality management
• Possible resizing of culverts
• Flood damage to infrastructure
• Risk of increased waterborne illnesses,
and injury/death from flooding
• Higher flood mitigation and insurance
costs
• Increased health risks from
extreme heat events
• Increased urban heat island
effects
• Increased risk of dangers and
damages from freezing rain
events
• More agricultural pollution
treatment needed
Crowded Beaches
Drier, Increased Population
Climate Scenario Details
drier
• Warming temperatures (especially winter)
• More intense short (seasonal) and long-term (multi-year) droughts
• Less snowpack contributes to summer drought
Population Scenario Details
economy
land use
• Rapid population growth
in NY and Ontario
•Increased crime
• Increased conversion of land
for urban sprawl and mega
farms (with increased water
recycling)
• Technology advances have left immigrant
and low-wage workers unemployed
•Federal/state stimulus programs in action
• Shift from historic sportfishing boats to
smaller/lighter vessels
•Increased tourism
•New energy extraction methods
Temperature Driver
(Warmer Air Temperatures)
Population Driver
(High Population)
• Surface soils dry out
• Exposed shorelines
• Decreased property values from
aesthetic changes to lakeshore
• Longer growing season
• More impervious land
cover
• Lake levels fall
• Reduced stream flows
• Wetlands dry out
• Warmer lake waters
• Less ice cover
• More evaporation
• Greater water use,
demands
• More stormwater runoff
Ecosystem
• Loss of lake and wetland habitat
• Fewer fish spawning sites
• Increased risk of fire
• Increased intensity of Harmful Algal
Blooms (HABs)
• Fewer cold refugia
• Fewer cold water fish species
• Increase in southern invasive
species
• Lower lake oxygen
• More agricultural
pollutants
• Increased intensity of
Harmful Algal Blooms
(HABs)
• Increased damage from
industrial pollutants
Human
• Greater water use demands/
diminished well water supplies
• Increased need for water quality
management
• Increased need for drought planning
and water conservation policy
• Economic stress (i.e., crop losses,
lake/shoreline industry losses, etc)
• Increased risk of fire
• Increased health risks from extreme
heat events
• Increased urban heat island effects
• Increased risk of dangers and
damages from freezing rain events
• Increased wastewater
treatment and disposal
needs
• Floodplain/shoreline
communities at risk from
higher water levels
IMPACTED
SECTOR
Land
Water/Lakes
Precipitation Driver
(Increased Drought)
Soggy Strip Malls
Wetter, Increased Population
Climate Scenario Details
wetter
• Northeast is wetter but this isn’t evenly distributed by season or event
• Warming temperatures (especially winter)
• Extreme precipitation events are more frequent
•More winter precipitation
• More precipitation is projected to fall as rain rather than snow
Population Scenario Details
land use
• Rapid population growth in
NY and Ontario
• Increased conversion of land for urban
sprawl and agriculture
• Increased road/transportation/shipping
development
• Agriculture shifts to wet adopted crops
(i.e. rice)
economy
•Increased alternative energy
development
•Increased aquaculture
offshore
Temperature Driver
IMPACTED Precipitation Driver
SECTOR (Increased Precipitation) (Warmer Air Temperatures)
Population Driver
(High Population)
• More stormwater runoff
• Lakeshore/river flooding
• Increased scour, erosion
• Increased gully formation
• Increased sediments
• Longer growing season
• More impervious land cover
• Lake levels rise
• More stream flooding
• Erosive wave activity
• Warmer lake waters
• Less ice cover
• More evaporation
• Greater water use, demands
• More stormwater runoff
Ecosystem
• Increased intensity of Harmful
Algal Blooms (HABs)
• Fewer cold refugia
• Fewer cold water fish species
• Increase in southern invasive species
• Lower lake oxygen
• More agricultural pollutants
• Increased intensity of
Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)
• Increased damage from
industrial pollutants
Human
• Sewer overflows
• Increased need for water/water
quality management
• Possible resizing of culverts
• Flood damage to infrastructure
• Risk of increased waterborne
illnesses, and injury/death from
flooding
• Higher flood mitigation and
insurance costs
• Increased health risks from extreme
heat events
• Increased urban heat island effects
• Increased risk of dangers and
damages from freezing rain events
• Increased wastewater
treatment and disposal needs
• Floodplain/shoreline
communities at risk from
higher water levels
Land
Water/Lakes