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Improving Air Quality in the enlarged EU:
Workshop on Plans and Programmes of
Air Quality and National Emission Ceilings Directives
The NEC directive in context of national economic
growth and the Lisbon agenda, climate change
policies and energy policies, in Italy
Giuliana Gasparrini1, Mario Contaldi2, Tiziano Pignatelli3,
Giovanni Vialetto3
1Ministry
2APAT
for the Environment and Territory
– Agency for the Protection of the Environment and the Territory
3ENEA
- Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
International Framework
Goals of the Lisbon Agenda
Full employment, Economic growth, Sustainable development
Local and Regional Environmental Constraints
NEC Directive Requirements
Gothenburg Protocol Targets
Climate Change constraints
Kyoto Protocol Targets on GHG emissions
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
2004 Updated estimations of Economic Growth indicators in
Italy (energy data estimated by MARKAL - Trend Energy Scenario)
Conservative assumptions in respect to the Lisbon Agenda goals
Yearly average changes (%)
Time range
19701980
19801990
19902000
20002010
20102020
20202030
GDP
3,6%
2,3%
1,6%
1,8%
2.0%
1.5%
Primary Energy
2,1%
1,1%
1,3%
1.2%
0,8%
0,4%
GDP energy
intensity
-1,5% -1,2% -0,3% -0,6% -1,2% -1,1%
Oil price(constant
currency)
0%
1%
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
2%
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
CO2 Emissions (provisional results by MARKAL - Trend Energy Scenario)*
National Allocation Plan (Directive 2003/87/EC)
1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
CO2 Emissions (Mton/y)
CO2 from energy, IPCC-OECD meth.
Mton
408
437
446
476
503
508
518
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Years
* to be revised according the new data collected through a bottom-up approach
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
2030
530
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
Thermoelectric Prod., year 2001, g CO2 / KWh
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
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The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
NEC Pollutant Emission Scenarios
1)
Developed through Integrated Assessment Modelling.
The RAINS-Italy Model, developed on behalf of the
Italian Ministry for the Environment and the Protection
of the Territory, within a joint Research Project ENEAIIASA.
2)
Based upon a coherent national framework: the National
Energy Scenario, by the Markal-Italy model, the
projections of the activity levels and the abatement
technologies, (according the provisions of the Current
Legislation (CLE Scenarios)
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
NOx Emission Scenario (CAFE Programme, April 2004)
Provisional estimates by Markal based on updated economic growth assumptions,
still in progress, show a slight increase of NOx emissions in the 2010-2030 period.
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
SOx Emission Scenario (CAFE Programme)
Provisional estimates by Markal based on updated economic growth assumptions,
still in progress, don’t show any effect on SOx emissions.
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
NH3 Emission Scenario (CAFE Programme)
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
VOC Emission Scenario (National Programmes, 2003)
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
Expected reduction of NOx emissions from additional measures, as
considered in the National Programme
Ship – introduction of low NOx ship engines
Road transport – introduction of incentives for private and public fleets
renewal, for low or zero emissions vehicles (NG and LPG fuelled, hybrid
and electric vehicles), and disincentives to limit the private traffic in urban
areas etc
Industrial processes – implementation of IPPC Directive and introduction
of the limit values stated in the Gothenburg Protocol
Energy sector – improving energy efficiency in the end use and diffusion
of renewable to implement Kyoto Protocol
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
Expected reduction of NH3 emissions from additional measures, as
considered in the National Plan
Agricultural sector
– diffusion of abatement emission systems into the livestock farms,
- reduction in the use of nitrogen fertilisers,
- diffusion of less emissive systems in the manure spreading
- Measures expected from the implementation of the IPPC Directive, the
Gothenburg Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
Conclusions
The environmental pillar of sustainable development should be fully integrate with
the economic and social ones in order to ensure that relevant objectives and
strategies are set up consistently.
In the case of the Kyoto Protocol strategy the use of flexible mechanisms and EU
ETS for compliance purposes is consistent with this approach.
In the case of NECs directive the range of instruments for compliance is limited in
respect to the Kyoto Protocol.
Furthermore the 2010 emission ceilings could result rather ambitious in respect to
the economic growth expectations of Member States according to national
circumstances.
Possibly, an underestimation of emissions projects, linked to socio-economic factors
when 2010 NECs were defined, could bring to additional efforts and costs, not
considered when the directive was approved, will be requested.
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004
The NEC directive in context of national economic growth and the Lisbon
agenda, climate change policies and energy policies, in Italy
Conclusions
The revision of the NEC directive already in progress in the context of the
CAFE gives the opportunity to improve the process in particular giving more
consideration to input data and trends provided by Member States.
It’s essential for a balanced decisional process that all the scenarios produced
during the revision process of the NEC Directive (based both on EU and
national data and trends) are equally considered.
Brussels, 1-2 September 2004