* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Steven McNulty - NSTA Learning Center
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact On European Seas wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Mountain pine beetle wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate Change Here and Now: Forest Ecosystem Impacts Steven McNulty Southern Global Change Program USDA Forest Service Three Goals of This Presentation •Participants will describe two examples of impacts of climate change on ecosystems •Participants will identify two impacts of climate change on forests •Participants will identify three ecosystem services that forests provide Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000 Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000 Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000 Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton Beaubien and Freeland I.J.Biomet 44:53-59, 2000 The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records. Relationships Between Ecosystem Services Water Availability WaSSI-CB Carbon Sequestration Biodiversity Water Shortages West Compared to East: Different Demands on Water Resources Western Water Withdrawal Eastern Water Withdrawal commercial commercial domestic domestic industrial industrial irrigation irrigation livestock livestock mining mining thermoelectric thermoelectric Western Relative Water Withdrawal Eastern Relative Water Withdrawal commercial commercial domestic domestic industrial industrial irrigation irrigation livestock livestock mining thermoelectric mining thermoelectric Model Rationale Climate Anthro Land use change Ground water Supply Demand Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) WaSSI = Total water supply from all sectors Total water demand from all sectors Reductions in Forest Water Quality Increased sedimentation (turbidity) Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8 mm) BW 7 Karl et al. 1996 Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF Projected Brook Trout Intact Range 2006 2026 2056 Water Trade-Offs Water Yield v. Forest Carbon Gain Relationships Between Ecosystem Services (Sun Model) Water Availability WaSSI-CB Carbon Sequestration (Law Model) Biodiversity (Constanza Model) Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline > 25% DECLINE 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE Relationships Between Ecosystem Services (Sun Model) Water Availability WaSSI-CB Carbon Sequestration (Law Model) Biodiversity (Constanza Model) Fire Impacts on Forests Changing Patterns in Wildfire Occurrence Large Scale (> 400 ac) Wildfires and Air Temperature From Westerling et al. 2005 Average Yearly Gross CO2 Emitted to Atmosphere Due to Fire Disturbance in Alaska by Decade 25 TgCO2 20 15 10 5 0 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s Decade 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Changes in Tree Distribution Sugar maple Iverson et. al GTR NE265 Loblolly pine Iverson et. al GTR NE265 Insect Impacts on Forests Insect Caused Forest Loss Mountain pine beetle Pine beetle damage Forest damage 19 12 19 16 19 20 19 24 19 28 19 32 19 36 19 40 19 44 19 48 19 52 19 56 19 60 19 64 19 68 19 72 19 76 19 80 19 84 19 88 19 92 19 96 20 00 20 04 TgCO2 Annual Forest CO 2 Loss Due to Insect Disturbances 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 year Future Insect Impacts on Forest Carbon Loss “Nearly 4 million acres (and 38 million trees) of mature white spruce forest on the Kenai Peninsula have been killed by a growing population of spruce bark beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) since about 1987. We attribute the beetle infestation to rising average temperatures in South-Central Alaska in both winter and summer. More beetle larvae can survive, and higher summer temperatures allow the insects to mature faster and complete a two-year life cycle in one year.” Edward Berg and Kenneth Raffa Hurricane Impacts on Forests Hurricane Zone in the US Annual Forest CO2 Loss Due to Hurricane Disturbances 30 TgCO2 25 20 15 10 5 0 6 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 3 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 Year TgCO2 Annual Forest CO2 Loss Due to Hurricane Disturbances (averaged by decade) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s Decade 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s T.R. Knutson and R. E. Tuleya, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Recap of Talk Climate change will impact ecosystems - Change in the growing season starting date - Change in the growing season length - Changes in location of ecosystem productivity Climate change will impact forests through - increased water stress - increased fire risk - increased hurricane damage - increased soil erosion Ecosystem Services Provided - Water - Fisheries (recreation) - Paper, timber, carbon sequestration