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Developing a model of methane (and other GHG) emissions from highly organic soils Jo Smith & Helen Flynn School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen SEERAD / NAW Project with What will happen to SOC stocks in 21st Century? Grassland, A1FI Factors not included in ROTH-C or SUNDIAL • Effects of soil pH • Methane emissions • Losses as dissolved organic carbon ROTH-C (Jenkinson et al, 1977); SUNDIAL (Bradbury et al, 1993; Smith et al, 1996) Best-practices guidelines on effects of conversion to forestry Best-practice guidelines on the agricultural use of organic soils C loss from accelerated erosion of organic soils Distribution of organic soils Model to simulate C and N cycling in organic soils Effects of land use and climate change on release of dissolved organic matter from organic soils = use of model outputs = flow of data Effects of landuse and climate change on GHG emissions from organic soils Estimates of changes in C and N balance of organic soils from Countryside surveys of Scotland and Wales Some models of methane emissions Wetland-DNDC Zhang et al, 2002 Arah & Stephen model Arah & Stephen, 1998 Linked ForHyM2 Clair et al, 2002 TEM and methane Zhuang et al, 2003; Cao et al, 1998 Kettunen model Kettunen, 2002 Ecosystem source model Christensen et al, 1996 EXTERNAL • Dynamic model (eg. BIOTA) • Static model (eg. MIAMI) • Satellite estimates Carbon Component of Organic Soils Model CH4 INPUTS NPP LU Type CO2 RPM Soil level CO2 DPM Methane Oxidation EXTERNAL • Dynamic hydrology model (eg. SWIM) • HOST classes • Measurements CH4 Meth. Oxid. BIO Decomposition IOM HUM Water level INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET INPUTS Air Temp Texture Module Water Module Decomposition Drivers pH pH Module INPUTS Soil Parameters DOC EXTERNAL • Dynamic model (eg. BIOTA) • Static model (eg. MIAMI) • Satellite estimates Nitrogen Component of Organic Soils Model N2O & N2 NH3 Plant N INPUTS NPP, LU Type DPM RPM Soil level NH4+ EXTERNAL • Dynamic hydrology model (eg. SWIM) • HOST classes • Measurements Water level NO3 INPUTS Max.Water level Rain,PET Leached N BIO - Water Module INPUTS Air Temp Decomposition Decomposition Drivers Acidity Acidity Module IOM HUM Texture Module INPUTS Soil Parameters What will happen to SOC stocks in 21st Century? Grassland, A1FI Pete Smith1, Jo Smith1, Helen Flynn1, Ken Killham1, Ignacio Rangel1, Ronnie Milne2, Ute Skiba2, David Fowler2, Mike Billett2, Steve Chapman3, Willie Towers3, John Bell3, Ann Malcolm3, David Lumsdon3, Bente Foereid3, Brian Reynolds4, Chris Evans4, Zoë Frogbrook4, Ian Bradley5, Marianne McHugh5, Pete Falloon6 School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen 2 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (Edinburgh) 3 Macaulay Institute 4 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (Bangor) 5 National Soils Resources Institute, University of Cranfield 6 Rothamsted Research 1