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Energy and Development Boston University 8 Nov 2010 CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL Outline • Unhealthy and Healthy Solutions • Financing Global Governance Energy Infrastructure Vulnerabilities •Storms and interruptions •Heatwaves/blackouts •Cooling water and nuclear power plants 24 of 104: H2O shortages loom •Melting permafrost and pipelines •Warming Lightning •Montane glacier loss hydropower Coal-fired plants Refineries Sludge, slurry & flyash 48 T/y CCS uranium thallium The Annual Quantifiable Costs of Coal Estimated Costs in 2008 USDs 1. Land Disturbance: Carbon & Methane Low Best High $728 million $2.2 billion $10.2 billion 2. Carcinogens $11.8 billion 3. Public health burden in Appalachian communities $74.6 billion 4. Fatalities among the public due to coal transport $1.8 billion 5. Emissions of Air Pollutants from Combustion $65 billion $187.5 billion $187.5 billion 6. Mercury Impacts $414.8 million $5.5 billion $19.3 billion 7. Subsidies $3.2 billion $3.2 billion $5.4 billion 8. Abandoned Mine Lands 9. Climate $8.8 billion $21.3 billion $63.9 billion $215.9 billion Summary Table Annual life cycle costs of coal And costs per kWh above the current price of coal-fired electricity Low Best High Totals $175 billion $345 billion $ 523 billion Added costs in ¢/kWh 9¢ 18¢ 27¢ Epstein et al. Full Cost Accounting for the Life Cycle of Coal. Ecological Economics Reviews/NYAS, in press Jan 2011 Risks of CCS – Acidification of aquifers, leaching heavy metals into ground water. – Acidification and fractures of limestone (CaCO3). – Release of highly-concentrated CO2, toxic to plants, wild animals and humans. – Microbial communities may be altered, releasing other gases. – Increased pressures raise risks of leaks and releases. – Increased pressures may destabilize faults, causing earthquakes. – Significant investment and insurance liabilities likely. “Energy penalty” = 1.25 to 1.4 times as much coal to produce an equal amount of energy; increases diesel transport and all upstream stages. Health and “The Yellow Cake Road” 10 faults within 20-mile radius of Yucca Mt. •Mining •Milling Worker and •Transport Community exposures Solitario Canyon just west of planned site can produce an 6.5 magnitude earthquake. •Processing •Energy plants -AP 9/25/07 Ground H2O, heat waves, accidents •Security Thefts and attacks •Temporary storage Plutonium reprocessed and stored •Long-term storage unsolved • $77 bn One ‘Yucca Mountain’ q5-10 years Bow Ridge Fault - USGS 5/21/07 BIOFUELS EIO-LCA H E E Energy In and Out Acetaldehyde SOLAR ENERGY Energy In BIOFUELS NOxs Switch grass E GHGs Farm waste Grease Recycling CO2 E Fermentation Sugar Corn/stalks Fertilizers O3 Transport Ethanol E Combustion E Energy Out Land/Soils/Food production Healthy Solutions Cars Trucks Trains Electric Vehicles Cleanlypowered, smart grid Healthy Cities Buses Ships Garden tools Light-rail CO2 O3, BC Generating the Nation ’ s Electricity ‘Smart,’ ‘Self-Healing,’ Resilient, Robust Grids with Renewables Regional Critical loads Generation “A GrandGeothermal Wind Plan” 1.5 ml turbines: 3 TW by 2020 Critical -L. Brown 2008 Wind loads Co-Generation Distributed Generation Renewables and Computerized technologies Central Generation Batteries Geothermal heat pumps A/C A Solar Grand Plan Co-Generation 69% grid by 2050 --Zweibel et al. SciAm 1/08 Solar Institute thermal & arrays and Flavin et al. Worldwatch Center for PV September 2006. American Progress. “Low Hanging Fruit” McKinsey & Co. 2007 Clean Energy: Necessary for Adaptation Distributed Generation Distributed Development Water Purification Pumping Irrigation Desalinization Schools Clinics Homes Computers Cooking Fortifying Infrastructure Washington Consensus Debt Deregulation Regulation Terms of Trade Privatization Tariffs & Subsidies Liberalization TNCs IFIs GEF Public/Private Partnership Constraints Bretton WoodsII Fixed rate X s + Goods Capital The Stern Review The Costs of Climate Change Damages 5-20% global GDP Includes non-linear impacts Adaptation Hundreds of $billions Mitigation 1% of GDP/yr IEA $500 billion/yr x 20 years Denationalizing global funds • Currency Transactions – 1972: $18 bn/day – 1990: $1.5 trillion/day – 2010: $4 trillion/day • Tax to generate $1/2 trillion annually Financial and Policy Instruments Aligning Rewards and Regulations Public Health TAXES, SUBSIDIES, FUNDS Private sector Investments Insurance Ratings REGULATIONS Public sector EFFICIENCY STDS Incentives Infrastructure R&D Procurement practices “Sticks” New Energy Plan Transport Utilities Buildings “Carrots” Corn Coal Nuclear Lobbies INSTITUTIONAL Securit y Economy FRAMEWORK Climate Stability THE ENGINE OF GROWTH for the 21st CENTURY http://chge.med.harvard.edu http://www.climatechangefutures.org FOR Q&A Stabilization Wedges 7 Energy Efficiency & Conservation 1. Public transport; plug-in hybrids 2. ‘Smart grid’ – distribution, storage, use Renewables 3. Green buildings 4. 5. Conservation Wind Natural Sinks 9. Forest mgmt/nurturing 10. Conservation tillage Fossil Fuel-based 11. Switch from Coal to Nat. Gas 12. C Capture & Storage (CCS) 6. PV/Solar thermal 13. H2 Fuel Cells 7. Geothermal 14. Coal-to-Liquid w/ CCS 15. Nuclear fission 8. Biofuels No regrets Study needed CE GC SF Green Buildings Estimated Savings Respiratory disease: $6 to $14 billion Allergies and asthma: $1 to $4 billion Sick building syndrome: $10 to $30 billion Worker performance: $20 to $160 billion Studies Total Energy Savings: $70 billion Schools with natural light 1996USD Lab 20% faster on math tests 26% faster on reading tests Stores with natural light: 40% more sales Hospitals with better lighting & ventilation: improved patient outcomes B. Fisk. Lawrence Berkeley National Investments in Our Common Future • WB Carbon Prototype Fund – $100 Million • Venture Capital/Private and Public Equity in US in 2007 – $117 Billion Mountain Top Removal Air and water quality Respiratory, kidney and heart disease Injury and death -- Hendryx et al. 2008 & 20009; Levy et al. 2009 Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Humans Vegetatio n Limestone Fractures Acidification -As -Pb Microbial communiti es -IPCC Tech Summary 2005 OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS Exploration Extraction Transport crude Harm Marine Spills & Leaks Mammals Shore birds Refining MERCURY Transport Benzene refined Petrochemicals Combustion Air Pollution Acid Rain Eutrophication NOxs Warming Oceans Climate Change Coral Reefs SLR EWEs & EIDs Melting Polar Ice Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods Poverty Conflict