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1 The Greens alternative Saving the planet and creating jobs John Kaye Greens NSW MP March 2013 vs 2 Where are the jobs? 3 The 'whole in the ground' economy • Mining eats manufacturing jobs: ▫ The rising $A ▫ Cheaper imports ▫ More expensive exports 4 The Resource Curse • Mineral exports drive up A$ ▫ Payments for minerals in A$ increases demand for $A pushes up value of $A ▫ Interest rates kept high to attract foreign investment capital But also drive up A$ compared to US$, Euro, Yen with much lower interest rates • Other industries cannot compete in high A$ ▫ Especially manufacturing • Sovereign wealth funds can help 5 Pop goes the boom • Commodity prices fluctuate • E.g. coal 2009 - 2012 6 Can't trust commodity prices • Mining tax debacle • Commodities price index (2000 -2011): 7 Commodities: the roller-coaster that eats jobs • Don't add much value in Australia ▫ Real wealth generated in other economies ▫ Does not add to advanced skills • Vulnerable to mechanisation ▫ Decline in employment • Wealth not held in Australia ▫ Mining industry 83% foreign owned ▫ $265 bn profits over next 5 years $50 bn overseas $205 bn more mining more foreign ownership 8 The mining boom: not much in it for us 9 Resource export economy and neoliberalism gone mad • Deregulated: ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ Currency Labor market Finance sector Industry Environment • Jobs boom and bust ▫ Shortage of skilled labour in mining areas ▫ High unemployment (e.g. Illawarra) ▫ Job insecurity (Western Sydney) 10 The ‘real’ economics of coal • Maules Creek coal mine • 324 million tonnes of coal ▫ x $100/tonne sale price = $32.4 bn value • 877 million tonnes CO2 ▫ x $80/tonne = $68.8 bn climate damage 11 Uncertain future • Resource depletion ▫ 25 years of known economic iron ore • Long term demand can change ▫ Coal Climate policy Cheaper renewables ▫ Large capital investment • Deskills workforce • Concentrates wealth 12 The Green alternative • Invest in a new clean, smart economy ▫ Climate crisis transition to clean energy ▫ Growing inequality rebuild public education ▫ Declining cities reinvent public transport • Why? ▫ Save the planet ▫ Tame the economy ▫ Create jobs 13 Wind, sun, coal and jobs Jobs in NSW Coal-fired electricity 7,000 (including mining) Renewables & efficiency 73,800 Jobs in NSW Aluminum smelting 1,500 Rooftop solar 5,400 John Kaye Greens NSW MP 13 14 How? • Regulation: ▫ Close coal-fired power stations ▫ Energy efficiency • Public investment ▫ Private capital too slow, risk-averse • Industry policy ▫ Developing and locating new jobs ▫ Smart protection for new industries for export • Unleash the power of collective economic action 15 Won’t we all be ruined? – No! • NSW coal electricity vs transition to renewables: ▫ Coal: 7,000 jobs x $35,000 tax revenue/job =$ 245 m in tax – subsidies ▫ Renewables 73,800 x $30,000 tax revenue/job =$2,214 m in tax Plus more jobs in export • Similar figures in transport etc. 16 How to get there? • Change the debate ▫ Reject neoliberal assertions Markets not always right Deregulation does not always deliver wealth Private investment not always superior • Focus on real jobs and collective wealth ▫ Green economy delivers More and better share of jobs Better security Greater opportunities for Australia’s future
