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Transcript
Energy and Development
Boston University
8 Nov 2010
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Outline
• Unhealthy and Healthy Solutions
• Financing Global
Governance
Energy Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
•Storms and interruptions
•Heatwaves/blackouts
•Cooling water and nuclear power plants
24 of 104: H2O shortages loom
•Melting permafrost and pipelines
•Warming
Lightning
•Montane glacier loss
hydropower
Coal-fired plants
Refineries
Sludge, slurry & flyash
48 T/y
CCS
uranium
thallium
The Annual Quantifiable Costs of Coal
Estimated Costs in 2008 USDs
1. Land
Disturbance:
Carbon & Methane
Low
Best
High
$728 million
$2.2 billion
$10.2 billion
2. Carcinogens
$11.8 billion
3. Public health
burden in
Appalachian
communities
$74.6 billion
4. Fatalities among
the public due to
coal transport
$1.8 billion
5. Emissions of Air
Pollutants from
Combustion
$65 billion
$187.5 billion
$187.5 billion
6. Mercury Impacts
$414.8
million
$5.5 billion
$19.3 billion
7. Subsidies
$3.2 billion
$3.2 billion
$5.4 billion
8. Abandoned Mine
Lands
9. Climate
$8.8 billion
$21.3 billion
$63.9 billion
$215.9 billion
Summary Table
Annual life cycle costs of coal
And costs per kWh above the current price of coal-fired electricity
Low
Best
High
Totals
$175 billion
$345 billion
$ 523 billion
Added costs in ¢/kWh
9¢
18¢
27¢
Epstein et al. Full Cost Accounting for the Life Cycle of Coal.
Ecological Economics Reviews/NYAS, in press Jan 2011
Risks of CCS
– Acidification of aquifers, leaching heavy metals into ground water.
– Acidification and fractures of limestone (CaCO3).
– Release of highly-concentrated CO2, toxic to plants, wild animals
and humans.
– Microbial communities may be altered, releasing other gases.
– Increased pressures raise risks of leaks and releases.
– Increased pressures may destabilize faults, causing earthquakes.
– Significant investment and insurance liabilities likely.
“Energy penalty” = 1.25 to 1.4 times as much coal
to produce an equal amount of energy;
increases diesel transport and all upstream stages.
Health and “The Yellow Cake Road”
10 faults within 20-mile
radius of Yucca Mt.
•Mining
•Milling
Worker and
•Transport
Community exposures
Solitario Canyon just west
of planned site can
produce an 6.5 magnitude
earthquake.
•Processing
•Energy plants
-AP
9/25/07
Ground H2O, heat waves, accidents
•Security
Thefts and attacks
•Temporary storage
Plutonium reprocessed and stored
•Long-term storage unsolved
•
$77 bn
One ‘Yucca Mountain’ q5-10 years
Bow
Ridge
Fault
- USGS 5/21/07
BIOFUELS
EIO-LCA
H
E
E
Energy In and Out
Acetaldehyde
SOLAR
ENERGY
Energy In
BIOFUELS
NOxs
Switch grass
E
GHGs
Farm waste
Grease
Recycling
CO2
E
Fermentation
Sugar
Corn/stalks
Fertilizers
O3
Transport
Ethanol
E
Combustion
E
Energy Out
Land/Soils/Food production
Healthy Solutions
Cars
Trucks
Trains
Electric Vehicles
Cleanlypowered,
smart grid
Healthy
Cities
Buses
Ships
Garden
tools
Light-rail
CO2
O3,
BC
Generating
the
Nation
’
s
Electricity
‘Smart,’ ‘Self-Healing,’ Resilient, Robust Grids
with Renewables
Regional
Critical
loads
Generation
“A GrandGeothermal
Wind Plan”
1.5 ml turbines: 3 TW by 2020
Critical -L. Brown 2008
Wind
loads
Co-Generation
Distributed
Generation
Renewables and
Computerized
technologies
Central
Generation
Batteries
Geothermal heat
pumps
A/C
A Solar Grand Plan
Co-Generation
69% grid
by 2050
--Zweibel et al. SciAm 1/08
Solar Institute
thermal &
arrays
and
Flavin et al. Worldwatch
Center
for
PV September 2006.
American Progress.
“Low Hanging Fruit”
McKinsey & Co.
2007
Clean Energy: Necessary for Adaptation
Distributed Generation
Distributed Development
Water
Purification
Pumping
Irrigation
Desalinization
Schools
Clinics
Homes
Computers
Cooking
Fortifying Infrastructure
Washington Consensus
Debt
Deregulation
Regulation
Terms of Trade
Privatization
Tariffs &
Subsidies
Liberalization
TNCs
IFIs
GEF
Public/Private
Partnership
Constraints
Bretton
WoodsII
Fixed
rate
X
s
+
Goods
Capital
The Stern Review
The Costs of Climate Change
Damages
5-20% global GDP
Includes non-linear impacts
Adaptation
Hundreds of $billions
Mitigation
1% of GDP/yr
IEA
$500 billion/yr x 20 years
Denationalizing global funds
• Currency Transactions
– 1972: $18 bn/day
– 1990: $1.5 trillion/day
– 2010: $4 trillion/day
• Tax to generate $1/2 trillion annually
Financial and Policy Instruments
Aligning Rewards and Regulations
Public Health
TAXES,
SUBSIDIES,
FUNDS
Private sector
Investments
Insurance
Ratings
REGULATIONS
Public sector
EFFICIENCY STDS
Incentives
Infrastructure
R&D
Procurement
practices
“Sticks”
New Energy Plan
Transport
Utilities
Buildings
“Carrots”
Corn Coal
Nuclear
Lobbies
INSTITUTIONAL
Securit
y
Economy
FRAMEWORK
Climate Stability
THE ENGINE OF
GROWTH
for the
21st CENTURY
http://chge.med.harvard.edu
http://www.climatechangefutures.org
FOR Q&A
Stabilization Wedges
7
Energy Efficiency &
Conservation
1. Public transport; plug-in hybrids
2. ‘Smart grid’ – distribution, storage,
use
Renewables
3. Green buildings
4. 5.
Conservation
Wind
Natural Sinks
9. Forest mgmt/nurturing
10. Conservation tillage
Fossil Fuel-based
11. Switch from Coal to Nat.
Gas
12. C Capture & Storage (CCS)
6. PV/Solar thermal
13. H2 Fuel Cells
7. Geothermal
14. Coal-to-Liquid w/ CCS
15. Nuclear fission
8. Biofuels
No regrets
Study needed
CE
GC
SF
Green Buildings
Estimated Savings
Respiratory disease: $6 to $14 billion
Allergies and asthma: $1 to $4 billion
Sick building syndrome: $10 to $30 billion
Worker performance: $20 to $160 billion
Studies
Total Energy Savings: $70 billion
Schools with natural light
1996USD
Lab
20% faster on math tests
26% faster on reading tests
Stores with natural light: 40% more sales
Hospitals with better lighting & ventilation:
improved patient outcomes
B. Fisk. Lawrence Berkeley National
Investments in Our Common
Future
• WB Carbon Prototype Fund
– $100 Million
• Venture Capital/Private and Public
Equity in US in 2007
– $117 Billion
Mountain Top Removal
Air and water quality
Respiratory, kidney and heart
disease
Injury and death
-- Hendryx et al. 2008 & 20009; Levy et al. 2009
Carbon Dioxide Capture and
Storage
Humans
Vegetatio
n
Limestone
Fractures
Acidification
-As
-Pb
Microbial
communiti
es
-IPCC Tech Summary 2005
OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS
Exploration
Extraction
Transport crude
Harm
Marine
Spills
&
Leaks
Mammals
Shore birds
Refining
MERCURY
Transport
Benzene
refined
Petrochemicals
Combustion
Air Pollution
Acid Rain
Eutrophication
NOxs
Warming Oceans
Climate Change Coral Reefs
SLR
EWEs & EIDs
Melting Polar Ice
Fisheries
Consumers
Livelihoods
Poverty
Conflict