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Global Climate Impacts of Thawing Permafrost Me Lin Liu Alessio Gusmereli Tim Schaefer Kevin Schaefer National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Tingjun Zhang Permafrost Primer Permafrost: Ground at or below 0°C for at least 2 consecutive years Active Layer: A layer over permafrost that freezes and thaws annually Permafrost Degradation: A decrease in permafrost extent; an increase in active layer thickness. Skiklomanov [2007] Permafrost Profile Vegetation Organic Layer Active Layer Silt Permafrost Permafrost Distribution • ~24% of Northern Hemisphere land Permafrost Distribution by Country Permafrost Profile: Mackenzie River Arctic Ocean Alberta Types of Permafrost Models Observations Empirical Component Complicated Simple ALT Land Ocean Atmosphere Land Surface Parameterizations Degree Day Temperature Temperature, Moisture, Carbon Remote Sensing Diagnostic Models Prognostic Models Climate Feedbacks Cryoturbation • Movement of soil or rock due to repeated freezing and thawing Vegetation Active Layer Permafrost Pleistocene Cryoturbation, France Frost Heave Frost Boils, Yamal Stone Circles, Svalbard Stone Circles, NW Territories Stripes, Glacier NP Ice Wedges and Polygons Polygons, Lena 1st Winter Active Layer Frozen Polygons, Prudhoe Bay [Zhang, 2009] 1st Spring Thawed Permafrost Soil contracts & cracks Crack fills with water & freezes 100th Winter Frozen 100th Spring Thawed Ice Wedge Ice Lenses and Layers Year 10,000 Year 1 Active Layer Permafrost Capillary suction of water to permafrost Ice Lens Water freezes & expands Ice Lenses Active Layer Permafrost Ice Layer Thermokarst • Collapse of soil due to melting of excess ground ice Projected Temperature Increases IPCC Temperature Projections 4th Assessment Report • 2° to 3° C globally by 2100 • Arctic warming is double the global average Projected Permafrost Degradation A1B Scenario Medium Sensitivity Active Layer Thickness ALT (cm) Global Terrestrial Network-Permafrost Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) measures active layer depth (168 sites) Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) measures permafrost temperature (780 sites) Permafrost is Like Concrete Wickland Schaefer Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost Ecosystems Infrastructure Impacts of Degradation Alaska Road Heaves Coastal Erosion near Barrow, Alaska Qinghai-Xizang Highway Bridge Thermokarst in Yakutsk [Skiklomanov, 2005] Global Carbon Cycle Atmosphere 750 Gt + 3 Gt yr-1 120 119 1.9 1.7 90 88 6 Vegetation 600 Gt Soils 1400 Gt Permafrost 1466 Gt Ocean 38,000 Gt Fossil Fuel 4000 Gt Impact of Thawing Permafrost on Global Climate • ~1700 Gt of carbon in permafrost as frozen organic matter • Thawing permafrost will release CO2 and CH4 Methane Release from Thawing Permafrost Methane emission Thermokarst Erosion Peat Thaw bulb Permafrost Methane production Dead plant & animal remains Burning methane over a thermokarst lake in Siberia (K. Walter) K. Walter [email protected] Permafrost Carbon Burial Deposition (loess, peat, erosion, volcanic) Active Layer Permafrost Soil Depth Permafrost Horizon Permafrost Carbon Mammoth, Siberia 32,000 year old grass, Alaska 30,000 year old roots, Siberia [Zimov et al., 2006] 15,000 year old moss, North Slope [Schaefer , 2012] The Permafrost Carbon Feedback • Amplifies surface warming • Irreversible • Emissions for centuries Projected annual permafrost emissions for A1B scenario Cumulative NEE (Gt C) Permafrost Carbon Tipping Point PCF Tipping Point 2023±4 Date (year) Arctic switches from a sink to a source Permafrost Carbon Flux (Gt C) Cumulative Permafrost Carbon Flux 104±37 Gt 190±64 Gt Date (year) 65±23% of15-39% cumulative global sink (~160 Gt C) of fossil fuelland emissions Estimates of Permafrost Emissions Schneider et al. (2012) Zuang et at. (2006) Dutta et al. (2006) 2100 2200 2300 Koven et al. (2011) Schuur et al. (2009) Gruber et al. (2004) Schaefer et al. (2011) Burke et al. (2012) Schuur et al. (2013) MacDougall et al. (2012) Raupach and Canadell (2008) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Cumulative Emissions (Gt C) 5% to 39% of anthropogenic emissions 600 Impact on Climate Change Treaty • 2°C warming target • Account for permafrost emissions • Available Projections don’t include permafrost emissions • Temperatures higher with feedback • Emissions targets may be too high Temperature Projections 4th Assessment Report UNEP Recommendations 1) Special IPCC assessment on permafrost emissions 2) National permafrost monitoring networks 3) National Adaptation Plans The End