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The European Butterfly Climate Change Indicator Chris van Swaay, De Vlinderstichting / Dutch Butterfly Conservation Butterfly Conservation Europe To a European Butterfly Climate Change Indicator • • • • • To a European Butterfly Climate change Indicator To a European Butterfly Climate Change Indicator • 1976: start of the first Butterfly Monitoring Scheme in the UK • Now at least 2000 transects in 14 countries • Every year our European volunteers count once around the world (40.000 km)! Butterfly Monitoring Spatial coverage • New countries join in every year • Most of them done on a routine basis Butterfly Monitoring Temporal coverage 20 18 Number of BMS 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 To a European Butterfly Climate Change Indicator Range expansion of Polygonia c-album in the Netherlands between 1975 and 2000 (Milieu- en Natuurplanbureau, 2003). Polygonia c-album expansion in the UK Six (out of fifteen) examples of range expansion of butterfly species in the United Kingdom and Ireland (Fox et al., 2006). Letters to Nature in 1999 and 2001 Climatic Atlas of European Butterflies • Climate change poses a considerable additional risk to European butterflies • Under the extreme, no dispersal GRAS scenario until 2080, 74% of the modelled species lose more than 50% of their present climatic niche butterflies are sensitive for climate change To a European Butterfly Climate Change Indicator Some of the criteria for indicators: • • • • • Policy relevance Broad acceptance Sensitive Scientific sound method Affordable monitoring, available and routinely collected data • Spatial and temporal coverage of data • Measure progress towards target How climate change may affect butterflies • • • • • • Direct effects on the physiology Indirect effects as microclimatic cooling Effects on the abiotic environment Impact on the vegetation structure Change of range of larval foodplants Species interactions Tested methods 1. Climate positive and negative species Comparable to the breeding bird climate change indicator (Richard Gregory), distinguishing climate positive and negative species. 2. Shift of species over their European Range Range change in northern direction leads to a increase in the north and a decrease in the south. 3. Changes in Community Temperature Index per country Measure changes in community composition in response to climate warming. 4. Changes in Community Temperature Index in Europe Four Butterfly Monitoring Schemes used: Finland, UK, Netherlands and Catalunya. Method 1: Number of climate positive and negative species Species are considered climate neutral if their expected change in Settele et al. (2008) under the full dispersal BAMBU scenario in 2080 is less than 20%. Climate positive Climate negative Neutral or unclear Finland 35 5 11 United Kingdom 20 4 19 Netherlands 7 9 33 Catalunya 2 68 8 Composite indexes 2 3000 Finland Climate negative Climate positive UK Climate negative Climate positive 2500 1,5 2000 1 1500 1000 0,5 500 0 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 120 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2,5 Netherlands Climate negative Climate positive 100 Catalunya Climate negative Climate positive 2 80 1,5 60 1 40 20 0,5 0 0 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Method 2: species shift • Composite index for Finland and Catalunya of the 17 species occurring in both Butterfly Monitoring Schemes. 160 Catalunya Finland 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Method 3: Community Temperature Index per country • • • • We expect species to move north As a result species composition will change More ‘warm’ species, less ‘cool’ species Method developed by Devictor et al. (2008) for birds in France Warm and cool species • Species Temperature Index (STI) is the long-term average temperature experienced by individuals of that species over its range. A cool species: Plebejus optilete STI=4.2oC Source: Kudrna 2002 A warm species: Hipparchia fidia STI=13.5oC Source: Kudrna 2002 Community Temperature Index CTI • Average of each individual’s STI on a transect • A high CTI would thus reflect a large proportion of warm species with a high STI, i.e. more high temperature dwelling species. • A rising CTI means – warm species are increasing and/or – cool species declining Change in CTI per BMS 8,2 9,3 United Kingdom Finland CTI (oC) 9,1 CTI (oC) 8 7,8 8,9 7,6 8,7 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1980 9,4 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 11,4 Catalunya Netherlands 11,2 CTI (oC) 11 CTI (oC) 9,2 9 10,8 10,6 10,4 8,8 1990 10,2 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Method 4: Community Temperature Index per country • An unweighted analysis was initially performed but is biased by the large number of transects in the United Kingdom and Netherlands relatively to the other two schemes. • The CTI scores per country are weighted by the area per country. Weighted CTI for Finland, UK, NL and Catalunya Community Temperature Index (oC) 8,8 8,6 8,4 8,2 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Butterfly Climate Indicator • Since 1990 CTI changed 0.0142 ± 0,0017 oC per year (P<0.001) in the four countries • As a comparison: in the Netherlands the temperature has risen with 0,0389 oC per year from 1970-2007 • Devictor et al. (2008) reported a shift of 0,0060 ± 0,0007 oC per year (P<0.001) for birds in France Butterfly Climate Change Indicator • The annual change of CTI is a good candidate to build a European Butterfly Climate Change Indicator • It could be extended to all European Butterfly Monitoring Schemes • Comparisons with bird and other indicator groups would be most interesting