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Dayton, Ohio ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change What Are They Thinking? Tom Werkema Distinguished Lecturer October 20, 2009 ATTACHMENT K NETWORK GROW LEARN TEACH SHARE This ASHRAE Distinguished Lecturer is brought to you by the Society Chapter Technology Transfer Committee Volunteer! Become A Future Leader in ASHRAE - Write The Next Chapter In Your Career ASHRAE Members who attend their monthly chapter meeting become leaders and bring information and technology back to their job. You are needed for: Membership Promotion Research Promotion Student Activities Chapter Technology Transfer Technical Committees Find Your Place in ASHRAE! Visit ashrae.org. Carbon Counting Carbon Counting Tools Calculator Types: – Personal carbon footprint – Carbon emissions from buildings – Carbon calculators with BIM systems Elements – Energy – single largest contributor Direct or indirect – Heating, cooling, lighting, appliances – Construction Of the building Of the materials used in the building Transportation of materials to construct Carbon Counting Tools Elements (continued) – Water Both in and out of the building – Solid Waste Includes decomposition to landfill ghgs – Transportation Public transit Building occupant material usage Building Calculators Operating & Embodied Energy – The Green Building Energy Suite – The Athena Institute Carbon numbers for some building sizes/locations LCA's for over 400 common building assemblies Impact estimator (purchase) – GWP of project New, retrofit, major renovations – Institutional, residential, office, industrial – Carbon Construction Calculator “reduce, renew, offset” Embodied and construction energy calculator Building Calculators Operating & Embodied Energy (con't) –Carbon Footprint Various carbon calculators Information about reduction/offsets –Zero Footprint Variety of calculators Carbon Calculators Natural /Therm gas – average 12.62 lbs CO2 – (0.47 lbs CO2/kWhr) Electricity – 0.97 lbs CO2/kWhr –Average for total US is 1.363 lbs CO2/kWhr –Includes on-site generation Avg Distribution of Building Emissions Construction 8% Water 4% Operational 37% Transportation 44% Waste 7% Avg Distribution of Building Emissions, excluding transportation Water 8% Construction 13% Waste 13% Operational 66% Carbon Calculation Process 1) Define boundary 2) Measure energy flow across boundary 3) Define carbon factor for each energy supply – EPA Power Profiler, EPA eGRID, NREL Model, CEC/E3 Model 4) Construction – multiple calculators available – Need to estimate building life as well 5) Waste – Some waste generates methane – recycle? Carbon Calculation Process (con’t) 6) Water – pumping/treatment CO2 emissions (embedded energy) – 7) Transportation – Ground, air – Boundaries home versus office? Business versus business Climate Change Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for March, 2009, was 15.16 million square kilometers (5.85 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for September 2009 was 5.36 million square kilometers (2.07 million square miles), the third-lowest in the satellite record. The magenta line shows the median ice extent for September from 1979 to 2000. Sea Ice Index data. About the data. —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center Figure 5. These images compare ice age, a proxy for ice thickness, in 2007, 2008, 2009, and the 1981 to 2000 average. This year saw an increase in second-year ice (in blue) over 2008. At the end of summer 2009, 32 percent of the ice cover was second-year ice. Three-year and older ice were 19 percent of the total ice cover, the lowest in the satellite record. —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy C. Fowler and J. Maslanik, University of Colorado at Boulder Figure 3. September ice extent from 1979 to 2009 shows a continued decline. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 has now increased to 11.2 percent per decade. Sea Ice Index data. —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center Climate Change 2009 5 Meetings plus Copenhagen Tabled key proposals – – – – Medium (2020) 25-40% and long term (2050) 50-95% Intellectual Property Rights proposed to be superseded Dozens of new institutions, funds Historic responsibility, climate debt, emission debt, shared carbon space, shared atmospheric resources, per capita reductions – No commitments for developing countries – Emissions trading – Sectoral approaches In 1997 pre-Kyoto had 100 page text – Reduced to 30 pages in Kyoto Protocol – Today 400 pages, and increasing US will only bring back agreement it will ratify International Trade Issues US – Secretary Chu – Carbon tariffs to “level playing field” China Appeals to Exclude Exports in Climate Deal – “rich countries buying its products should bear responsibility for emissions in manufacturing” – 20% of China’s emissions from exported goods – Others: logistical nightmare, control over production in developing countries? Subject of House hearings in Spring – Potential tax credits to affected industries 10 Senate D’s letter to Obama – August 7 Discussed by EC in 2008, without pursuing today 1990-2006 1990-2006 EU F Gas Regulation Key sectors – refrigeration, airconditioning, heat pumps, highvoltage switchgear Marketing & use bans limited today Will be reviewed in 2010 for changes in 2011 – EC looking at Waxman/MarkeyBoxer/Reid EU Mobile A/C Directive 1/1/11 no new model(platform) MAC fluid > 150 GWP 1/1/17 no new MAC fluid > 150 GWP Auto makers may not introduce new models in 2011, 12 EU Emissions Trading Scheme EU Program – Carbon prices have declined due to economy – Automakers agreed to reduce new car emissions to 130gms/km by 2012-2015 – Firms will receive > 30% carbon allowances free until 2020 Free allocation for Energy Intensive Industries exposed to C leakage Rest purchased at auction Other Developed Countries Japan: Indicated they would start C & T in October Australia: Cap and Trade by 2010 Pushed back to 2011 – Includes HFCs in common basket 1100% cost increase will simply pass thru to consumer Canada HFC restricted to Significant New Activity Notice lists Mandatory reporting in 2005 Declared all GHGs CEPA Toxic Sweden: tax proposal $43/pound 134a equivalent Global Primary Energy: 550 ppmv 1,600 1,400 Exajoules/Year 1,200 Coal Gas Oil 1,000 800 Energy Reduction from Reference Non-Biomass Renewables Transport Nuclear Commercial Biomass Buildings Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Industry Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS Nuc 400 Biomass 200 CCS 600 0 2000 2020 2040 Year 2060 2080 2100 Stabilization scenarios developed for US Climate Change Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy Montreal Protocol Mauritius/Micronesia amendment to add HFC to MP, with HFC only in 2004-6 baseline EU – wants decision from UNFCCC to mandate reduction schedule, implemented by MP US, Canada, Mexico – amendment to MP – 2004-2006 baseline HCFCs+HFCs GWP basis – Slightly less stringent than WM thru 2025, 15% residual at end of schedule – Developing country 10% reduction 2016, 85% 2043 – MLF funding for HFCs – to be negotiated – Limits HFC-23 emissions – Leaves unchanged UNFCCC/KP jurisdiction – Production for Developing countries allowed, 10% of baseline – Non Party Imports/Exports banned w/i one year of entry into force – Enters into force 1/1/2011 if 20 Parties ratify US House – American Climate & Energy Security Act (ACES) (essentially same as Senate version) Voted June 26, 2009 ACES Passed 219-212 – Need 218 to pass – 44 D against, 8 R for 3D’s considered bill to weak – 1428 pages – released 5 hours before debate – Senate using ACES as starting point Reid-Boxer (Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Act) reduced to 821 pages Reid now admitting 2010 discussions – Obama concurs ACES Covers 85% of US emissions 2005 levels baseline – – – – 3% below by 2012 17% below by 2020 42% below by 2030 83% below by 2050 Covered Gases – CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3,, two HFOs – Any other anthropogenic gas determined by EPA ACES “Covered entities” – 25,000 MT CO2 – Vehicle fleets > 25,000 MT CO2 Emissions 5 years allowances vary over first – 4,627 MMT CO2 in 2012 up to 5,482 MMT CO2 in 2016 – Decreases steadily to 1,035 MMT CO2 in 2050 and thereafter ACES - Auctions 15% each year, proceeds to low income consumers Small quantities also auctioned for: worker training, adaptation, wildlife & natural resources ACES-HFCs HFC Separate Title – same Clean Air Act Section as HCFCs (Group I) but separate (Group II) – Includes manufactured HFCs, excludes byproducts 2012 @ 90% of baseline GWP – 2004-2006 average baseline HFCs + HCFCs – 2.5%/yr decline first 6 years (2018), 4%/yr thereafter – 15% of baseline in 2033 370 MM TCO2e maximum EPA determined baseline – 280 MM TCO2e minimum baseline The American Clean Energy and Security Act (HR 2454)Waxman Markey Bill 500 450 BAU Initial Estimates 400 450 350 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 250 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 33 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 Total Rights- WM 150 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 13 14 20 20 200 20 12 0 20 MM TCO2 Equiv Low GWP Shift 300 MM TCO2 Equiv 400 BAU Latest (Arkema) Estimate Total Rights- MP Ammend 100 50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Producer Non Auction Rights HFC Low Demand Rights needed Producer Auction Rights HFC High Demand to produce/import any HFC Similar to HCFC Rights not free – auction/fee Starting basis: Secondary Pool Optimistic Phasedown Case GWP 2004-2006, 60% HCFCs+100% HFCs Presumes EPA allocates at maximum level allowed in 2012 Senate consideration unknown/on-going McKinsey & Company Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy – July, 2009 Energy savings of $1.2t by 2020 – Capital cost of $520b – 1.1 Gt CO2 reduction – 9.1 Quad BTU end use savings 23% of projected demand Significant barriers exist – 1) Recognize energy efficiency as energy resource – 2) launch portfolio of emerging, proven, pilot approaches – 3) identify upfront funding resources $0.0059 per KWH + $1.12 per MMBTU over 10 years (~8%↑) – 4) alignment between utilities, regulators, government, manufacturers, energy consumers – 5) foster innovation McKinsey & Company Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy – July, 2009 Energy Consumption per unit floor space, since 1980 – ↓ 11% residential – ↓ 21% commercial – Industrial Energy Consumption ↓ 41% per GDP output California 2/28/09 – introduced ban on high GWP – Commercial Refrigeration & AC – GWP>150, commencing in 2020 – Converted to a study in April Refrigeration regulation – Dec. 2009 – >2,000 pound systems 2011 – 200-2,000 pound 2014 – Certified Techs, no venting, record keeping, registration US EPA EPA – Published Final Rule for Reporting – 2010 data, reported in 2011 – 25,000 MT CO equivalent – Deferred HFC production reporting Voluntary in 2009 EPA published “endangerment” finding – Applicability of Clean Air Act to GHGs EPA will publish Product Containing in 2009? – Refrigeration systems only – does not cover foam – Ban on importation, consistent with domestic EPA Regulatons (con’t) Auto industry agreement – Proposed Rule – Final expected by early November – 35.5 mpg – corresponding tailpipe emissions (250 gms/mile) – 9-14 gms/mile MAC – 2016 implementation EPA also to publish HCFC Allocation Rule by 1/1/10? On September 30, EPA Proposed Rule under CAA – applicability of New Source Review – 25,000 MT CO2e – Applies to all ghgs HFC Substitutes by Sector: Aerosols, Foams, Fire Suppression End-Use Aerosols All Non-Medical Change in CO2e Where Adopted Years Until Available Replace HFC-134a with HFC-152a 91% available now Hydrocarbons 100% available now Not-in-Kind (pumps, roll-ons, etc.) 100% available now 95.2-99.6% <5 Dry Powder Inhalers 100% available now Injections/Tablets 100% 10+ Inert Gases 100% available now Water Mist 100% available now 99.97% available now HFO-1234ze Medical Fire Suppression Substitute or Mitigation Strategy Total Flooding Fluorinated Ketone (FK-5-1-12) Foam Blowing All other low GWP substances ~90% 10+ Various Hydrocarbons 100% available now XPS CO2 100% <5 Spray H2 O 100% <5 Appliance, XPS, Spray HFO-1234ze 99.4%-99.6% <5 Appliance Foam Capture/destruction at end-of-life ~90% available now Other End Uses Capture/destruction at end-of-life ~90% 10+ HFC Substitutes by Sector: Air Conditioning End-Use All End Uses Change in CO2e Where Adopted Years Until Available Recovery/Reclamation/ Destruction 10-100% available now Leak Repair 10-100% available now Enhanced HFC-134a Systems 50% available now HFC-152a, HFO-1234yf, CO2 91.3-99.9% <5 HFO-1234yf, CO2 99.7-99.9% <10 Microchannel Heat Exchangers 35-50% available now Low GWP Blends 50-90% 10+ Substitute or Mitigation Strategy Auto AC Bus, Train A/C Residential & Commercial AC, Chillers Window AC Units Dehumidifiers Hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO1234yf 99.7-100% <10 <10 HFC Substitutes by Sector: Refrigeration End-Use All End Uses Supermarkets Change in CO2e Where Adopted Years Until Available Recovery/Reclamation/Destruction 10-100%* available now Leak Repair 10-100%* available now 90-100% available now 50-90% 10+ 100% available now 50-90% 10+ Substitute or Mitigation Strategy Low Charge / Low Leak Technologies (e.g., Cascade or Secondary Systems) Low GWP Blends Chillers, Cold Storage Ammonia Low GWP Blends Home Refrigerators/ Freezers Stand-alone Commercial Refrigerators/ Freezers available now Hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO-1234yf 99.7-100% <5 Beverage Coolers <10 Vending Machines <5 Ice Makers Transport Refrigeration <10 Hydrocarbons, Ammonia, Low GWP Blends 50-100% 10+ Ozone