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Assessing Climate Change: Speed Bumps in the Process? Dr. Thomas R. Karl Director, National Climatic Data Center Satellite and Information Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ESIP Federation Winter Meeting January 9-10, 2008 ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 1 Washington, DC Outline • Climate Change: User perspective • Climate Change Assessments: Science Perspective • Mitigation and Adaptation Responses • An important role for ESIP ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 2 Washington, DC Assessing Climate Change Today’s Challenges • Climate is changing – Coping and adapting is a profound challenge nationally and globally • User capability is increasing – Enhanced ability to use climate information in planning and operations • Climate observing systems are expanding – Integrated production and delivery of data, information and knowledge is needed to answer multi-disciplinary societal issues Challenge: Translate climate information into an integrated climate service that can be used by everyone ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 3 Washington, DC An Integrating Architecture for Climate Information & Services ENVIRONMENT Adaptation, Risk Avoidance, and Resilience NATURAL FORCES SOCIETY FUTURECAST ECONOMY FORECAST NOWCAST HINDCAST USERS Tailored Information Products Data Analysis and Integration Derived Data Products Data Collection and Analysis PHENOMENA Climate Variability Biogeochemical Cycles AIR Hazard Identification SEA HUMAN FORCES LAND 4 Climate Change ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting Washington, DC User Concerns and Information Needs Energy, Insurance, and Transportation Sectors • Shared concerns: Vulnerability of societal infrastructure to… – Sea-level rise and coastal inundation – Extreme events: Changes in frequency, intensity, and probability – Prolonged extreme conditions (e.g., drought) • Shared information needs: Continued and sustained dialogue to ensure… – More accurate information at regional/local scales – Higher spatial and temporal data resolutions – Better understanding of changing hazards, consequences, assets, and resilience ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 5 Washington, DC Climate Change Assessments The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) www.climatescience.gov Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) www.ipcc.ch ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 6 Washington, DC U.S. Climate Change Science Program Product 3.3: Weather and Climate Extremes • Focus: Changes in weather and climate extremes as related to their intensity or frequency, and their likely future evolution – Weather extremes: Unusual in their occurrence or have destructive potential, such as torrential rainfall, hurricanes, severe winter storms, heat waves, etc. – Climate extremes: Represent the same events, as above but viewed over many seasons, decades, or longer * * This graphic does not include losses that are nonmonetary, e.g., loss of life, biodiversity etc. 7 To be published spring 2008 ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting Washington, DC What Are Extremes and Why Do They Matter? • Extremes are a natural part of even a stable climate system • A changing climate has changing extremes – Changing extremes are already having impacts – Future changes associated with continued climate change will present additional challenges • On balance, because systems have adapted to their historical range of extremes, the majority of events outside this range have primarily negative impacts ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 8 Washington, DC Temperature - Projected Human-induced warming has already caused changes in temperature extremes • A day so hot it occurs once every 20 years… • will occur once every 3 years by 2050, and • once every 1-2 years by 2100 for much of the U.S. (mid-range emission scenario) • Multiple studies indicate that heat waves will become more frequent, longer-lasting and more intense • The ‘heat index’ is also projected to increase in many areas ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 9 Washington, DC Observed changes in Heavy Precipitation Understanding impacts: data integration Trends in the contribution to total annual precipitation from very wet days (95th percentile) in percent per decade. (a) Regional changes in percent (a) (b) (b) Worldwide changes in areas with adequate data. Source: Alexander et al. 2005. ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 10 Washington, DC Precipitation Extremes Projected Changes On average, precipitation is likely to be less frequent but more intense. Precipitation extremes are very likely to increase. For a mid-range emission scenario, daily precipitation so heavy that it now occurs only once every 20 years is projected to occur every eight years or so by the end of this century over much of Eastern North America. Increase in the amount of daily precipitation over North America that falls in heavy events. ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 11 Washington, DC Precipitation Extremes Projected Changes The lightest precipitation is projected to decrease. The heaviest precipitation is projected to increase strongly. High Emission Scenario Middle Emission Scenario Low Emission Scenario Higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios produce larger changes in extreme precipitation. ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 12 Washington, DC Precipitation distribution & Temperature Presenting data to the Public The diagram shows that warmer climates have a higher percentage of total rainfall coming from heavy and very heavy events and fewer events. Based on data from a worldwide distribution of observing stations, but each with the same seasonal mean precipitation amount of 230 (±5) mm. (adapted from Karl and Trenberth 2002). ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 13 Washington, DC Precipitation (Blue) and Streamflow (Turquoise) trends over the USA within various percentiles of daily precipitation events 19392007 Percentiles Actual precipitation/streamflow fractions in in each range of the events: 5 5 25 20 33 27 14 14 24 35 Solid shading denotes statistically significant trends (alpha = 0.01) ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 14 Washington, DC Storms: Hurricanes - Projections • For North Atlantic and North Pacific hurricanes: For every degree Celsius of tropical SST increase, the surface wind speeds of the strongest hurricanes are projected to increase 2-10% ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 15 Washington, DC Scientific Understanding and User Needs Making Assessments Relevant for Key Users “Extreme precipitation episodes (heavy downpours) have become more frequent and intense in recent decades over most of North America” “It is likely that that increasing temperatures (and associated increasing evaporation potential) are already contributing to droughts that are longer and more intense” “Human-induced warming has already caused changes in temperature extremes” “The power and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes have increased substantially in recent decades. ” OUTCOMES USER NEEDS Corporate and community risk management, operations, development and planning Enhanced observations (atmosphere, ocean and coastal) with data acquisition, access and stewardship systems Accurate information at regional/local scales, and higher spatial and temporal resolution Historical data is necessary but not sufficient. Dynamic and optimal computational tools in a Service-Oriented Architecture context are also required ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 16 Washington, DC Ice Loss and Sea-Level Rise Increasing Ice loss in Polar & Alpine Regions Catastrophic Impact: Low Probability MITIGATION RESPONSE Observed Antarctic Melting Black Swan Event 6-meter rise in sea level Possible Projection for SE U.S. Flooded 1987 *Source: NASA 2005 2004-05 Ice Loss: Size of California ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 17 Washington, DC Aviation Sector High Impact, High Probability ADAPTATION RESPONSE Increased temperatures and water vapor are virtually certain in the next few decades and beyond Higher temperatures with higher water vapor affects airplane performance …. takeoff length and “climbing” ability IMPACT: Estimated summer loss* in transport capability for a single Boeing 747 by 2030 due to increased temperature and water vapor Denver Airport Phoenix Airport The increase in air temperature and water vapor causes: 2.3M lbs in cargo loss transport at Denver (17% of total cargo) 1.2M lbs in cargo loss transport at Phoenix (9% of total cargo) * Based on B747 maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) as presently stated by Boeing, Inc. MTOW is a function of aircraft lift and thrust, and therefore of air density. ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 18 Washington, DC Lodgepole Pine Tree Mortality High Impact, High Probability ADAPTATION RESPONSE Healthy trees (green) Dead and dying trees (red) • Multiple stresses contribute to the perfect ecological storm in the Rocky Mountains: – Overabundant pine – More beetles survive winters with fewer extremely cold days – Pine trees are weakened by drought ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 19 Washington, DC Communicating Likelihood and Addressing Complex Events Multiple Concurrent Threats: Heat waves, drought, poor air quality Heavy precipitation and spring snow melt High tide, sea level rise, storm-induced waves Conditional Threats: Repeated ice storms, hurricanes Probability of spring freeze subsequent to accumulating threshold number of growing degree days ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 20 Washington, DC Response to Climate Change Consequences HIGH Hurricanes Extratropical Cyclones Multi-Stressor Event (e.g., heat + drought + poor air quality) LOW Probability of Occurrence Mitigation and Adaptation Coastal Inundation Abrupt Climate Change Black Swan Event LOW HIGH CATASTROPHIC Impact Adaptation Response* Take steps to reduce vulnerability to climate risks Responding to the impacts that are inevitable Mitigation Response* Stabilize, then reduce greenhouse gas emissions An international and intergenerational commitment 21 *Source: Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting Washington, DC Where do we go from here? Extend and Expand the Dialogue Anticipating and Addressing Unprecedented Change: Historical data necessary but not sufficient Integration of physical, ecological, social and economic data Scalability - from global to regional to local (and back) - desirable Proactive, evolutionary approach — adaptation and mitigation Tailored data solutions for risk analysis, operations and planning Enhanced interagency dataset integration and consistency Building Connections Based on Community Expertise Existing corporate commitments Science agency programs Public-private partnerships Corporate and community risk management (operations, development, and planning) ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 22 Washington, DC Data Needs for Adaptation Responses ESIP Roles • What roles can ESIP play immediately? – Support the capability to provide data and information required for local, national, and regional decisions on sectoral issues (e.g., transportation, drought, water and air quality, carbon cycle, etc.) – Act to facilitate data integration to complement and support sector-based issues (e.g., energy, drought, water quality, carbon cycle, etc.) – Promote data standards (e.g., SOA) for linkage of government, corporate, and educational data. – Contribute to enhanced data visualization tools. Corn Belt Drought Areas ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 23 Washington, DC Where do we go from here? Extend and Expand the Dialogue Data as the Vital Bridge: Understanding Science Observations Information Decision support Trusted Partnerships for Climate Service and Science ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting 24 Washington, DC