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Climate Change Mitigation What the UK is Doing CRed the Carbon Reduction Programme CRed Carbon Reduction Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Факультет экологических исследований Университета Восточной Англии Energy Science Director, Low Carbon Innovation Centre 1 Climate Change Mitigation • Climate Change – a short review • International Comparisons • Issues affecting the UK • the Carbon Reduction Programme • Conclusions 2 Future Global Warming Rates Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere 380 370 (ppm) 360 350 340 330 320 310 300 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 3 Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001 Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation 4 Temperature Rise (oC) 1.0 actual predicted 0.5 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 Temperature Rise (oC) 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted 1.0 0.5 Prediction: Anthropogenic only 0.0 Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 -0.5 1860 1880 1.0 Temperature Rise (oC) Is Global Warming man made? 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Predictions include: Prediction:Gas Natural and • Greenhouse emissions 0.5 Anthropogenic • Sulphates and ozone Generally a good match 0.0 • Solar and volcanic activity -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 5 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region – Nasa satellite imagery 2003 1979 •20% reduction in 24 years Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 6 Climate Change Mitigation • Climate Change – a short review • International Comparisons • Issues affecting the UK • the Carbon Reduction Programme • Conclusions 7 International Comparisons • In UK each person is consuming energy at a rate of 5.1 kW • In USA it is 10.6 kW 1/20th or World’s Population consumes 25% of all energy • • In Europe it is 5.7 kW In Russia it is also 5.7 kW • Globally it is around 2 kW • ENERGY Consumption > Carbon Dioxide > Global Warming 8 International Comparisons Energy - GDP Relationships 40000 USA GDP per head (US$ (95) 35000 Qatar Japan 30000 Canada UK 25000 France 20000 Other EU Countries Mediterranean EU Nordic EU New EU Germany Poland 15000 Russia 10000 China 5000 India 0 0 5 10 15 kW per Head 20 25 30 9 International Comparisons Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit of Energy Carbon Emissions per unit of Primary Energy 50 CO2 Emissions per Capita 45 Qatar 40 35 Developing 30 Countries USA Australia 25 Russia 20 Other EU Germany 15 EU nordic Canada Japan UK 10 EU med 5 EU new France 0 0 5 10 15 20 Primary Energy per Capita (kW) 25 30 10 Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Different Countries Electricity Emission Factors • Russia ~ 0.50 kg/kWh • China ~ 0.87kg/kWh • UK ~ 0.52 kg/kWh Hydro 17% Nuclear 16% Coal 19% Gas 45% Oil 3% Other 0.4% Nuclear 2.3% Oil 3% coal 79.4 % Hydro 14.9% Renewables 4% Other Hydro 2% 1% Nuclear 21% Coal 37% Gas 33% Oil 2% Russia China UK 11 Climate Change Mitigation • Climate Change – a short review • International Comparisons • Issues affecting the UK • the Carbon Reduction Programme • Conclusions 12 Energy Saving: The UK Perspective UK has become more efficient in using energy to generate wealth over past 50 years. Generates the same wealth with 45% of energy as in 1950. Improvement ~ 1.45% per annum 13 Energy Consumption: The UK Perspective Wealth of UK increased uniformly with energy in 1950s and 1960s Major infra-structure projects in late 1960s early 1970s 1979 - 1992 restructuring followed by increase efficiency 1992 - increased conservation 14 Change in Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation in UK 1990 coal oil gas nuclear hydro renewables other 1999 2005 Major changes in the Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation 15 Electricity Options for the Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions 250 • MTonnes CO2 200 150 • • 100 50 0 1990 • 1995 2000 •Carbon Emission Factors for Electricity Generation • Coal ~ 1000 g/kWh • Oil ~ 850 g/kWh • Gas ~ 540 g/kWh From 1990 to 1999 Substantial fall in carbon dixoide emissions Despite 23% increase in demand However, once change is made saving cannot be made again Hence rise in recent years 2005 1990 coal oil gas nuclear hydro renewables other 2005 • Gas (CCGT) ~ 420 g/kWh • Nuclear ~ 4 g/kWh 16 Electricity Consumption (TWh) Historic and Future Demand for Electricity 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static 17 Electricity Options for the Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions Low Growth – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010 250 MTonnes CO 2 200 But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002) 150 High Growth – Business as Usual 100 Actual 50 257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002) High Growth Low Growth 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 The Gas Scenario Replacements for ageing plant Additions to deal with demand changes Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010 100 90 billion cubic metres Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas. Gas Consumption 80 Actual 70 High Growth 60 50 Low Growth 40 30 20 10 20% renewables by 2020 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 18 Electricity Options for the Future Low Growth Scenario Other Options Carbon Dioxide Emissions 250 MTonnes CO 2 200 25% Renewables by 2025 • 20000 MW Wind • 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc. 150 100 Actual Gas Nuclear Coal 40:20:40 Mix 50 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 350 High Growth Scenario Business as Usual Mtonnes CO2 New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 Actual Gas Nuclear Coal 40:20:40 Mix 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 19 Energy Saving: Why is it important for the UK? • The UK has been self sufficient in energy • Under present trends the UK will be a substantive importer of natural gas ~ 80% and oil by 2020 • It makes sense to reduce energy demand and still remain competitive economically. • Reducing energy demand will also see a reduction in carbon dioxide - the main contributor to Global Warming • The Government has set targets and provided mechanisms to provide grants for individuals and industry. • However, more could be done. 20 Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market • Government Targets • 10.4% of total electricity by 2010 • unlikely to be met - at best 6 - 7% • 20% by 2020 60 MW offshore Wind Farm at Yarmouth commissioned early 2005. New Wave Powered device - launched 6th August 2004 Onshore 1.5 MW turbine 21 Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market • Renewables Obligation – Requires all suppliers to provide a minimum percentage of electricity from New Renewables. – In 2006 - 2007 the percentage will be 6.7%, but only around 3% is being achieved. • Target is increased each year – In 2006 – 2007 Suppliers will fined at 3.324 p per kWh (1.662 Roubles) per kWh for any shortfall. • Fine is index linked – in 2002 – 3 it was 3.0 p per kWh – This is introducing a new market in the trading of Renewable Obligation Certificates - issued as proof of generation. 22 Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) Notifies Regulator how much generated. The Regulator OFGEM Notifies OFGEM of compliance i.e. ROCs or pays FINE ROC’s issued FINES recycled in proportion to ROCs held Renewable Generator Sells ROCs to Trader SUPPLIERS Sells Electricity with or without ROCs Trader and Brokers Buys ROCs from Trader 23 Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) • £12 - 15 per MWh Recycled fines • £1.50+ per MWh Embedded benefits • £4.30 per MWh Climatic Change Levy • £33.24 per MWh Value of ROC (2006) • £40 - £45 per MWh Wholesale Electricity Price Less BETTA Imbalance charges ~ £2-£3 per MWh Value of Renewable Generation about £90 per MWh i.e. about twice whole sale price 24 Climate Change Mitigation • Climate Change – a short review • International Comparisons • Issues affecting the UK • the Carbon Reduction Programme • Conclusions 25 The Carbon Reduction Project • Aims to Reduce CO2 emissions by 60% to combat Climate Change • Started in Norwich • Now also in Suffolk, Camden, Essex, Cheshire and others • Elsewhere in World: – USA (North Carolina), Japan (Okinawa) China (Shanghai) • Promoting Approriate Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation • Promoting Awareness • Working with businesses, Public Bodies, individuals 26 Energy Saving: Awareness / Education / Advice and the domestic sector • Understandable Language A mobile phone charger left on ------ Each person in UK emits 9 tonnes of CO2 per year ~ 5 hot air balloons up to 25 kg CO2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank) Russia 10.5 tonnes ~ 6 balloons --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of a balloon) A tumble dryer uses four times as much energy as the equivalent washing machine - use the dryer sparingly Boiling an extra cup full of water causes the emission of 25 cupfuls of carbon dioxide. 27 in the Community Community Engagement - Reepham CO2 by proportion Other household energy 28% Flying 11% Car 21% Heating/ hot water 40% Total emitted by residents of Reepham 13288 tonnes of CO2 = 7382 hot air balloons of CO2 Reepham is now developing a zero-carbon ambition at the University 3% Radiation Losses 11% 61% Flue Flue Losses Losses Exhaust Heat Exchanger 36% 86% GAS efficient Localised generation makes use of waste heat. Reduces conversion losses significantly Engine Engine heat Exchanger Generator 36% Electricity 50% Heat 29 at the University Conversion efficiency improvements Before installation 1997/98 MWh electricity gas oil 19895 35148 33 Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277 Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 Total 15699 After installation Electricity Heat 1999/ Total CHP export import boilers CHP 2000 site generatio n MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 Emission kg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 factor CO2 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 oil total 923 0.277 256 10422 This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide 30 at the University Conversion efficiency improvements Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively More electricity could be generated in summer 31 at the University A 1 MW Adsorption chiller uses waste heat to provide chilling 1 MW 吸附冷却器 The Adsorption chiller will save around 700 tonnes CO2 reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated 吸附冷却器可为东滩提供空调系统 每一个可减少排放700吨CO2 32 at the University: Other Projects to reduce CO2 ZICER a very low energy building • Designed to emit less than 50% of CO2 compared to conventional building • Good Management has reduced emissions even further to less than 25% of normal • Includes 34 kW of Photovoltaic Generation on top of building • Plans to install 4 – 6 MW of Wind Generation • Plans to install biomass CHP 33 and the Business Sector Packaging Cumulative CO2 savings 1400.0 £1,400,000 Cumulative Cost Savings 1200.0 1000.0 £1,200,000 £1,000,000 x 1200 saving 800.0 £800,000 600.0 £600,000 400.0 £400,000 200.0 £200,000 £- Ja n04 Ja n03 0.0 34 and the Transport Sector Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry Action CO2 Cumulative saving saving Using 50% Biofuels 35% 35% Advanced Driver Training 15% 45% Better Route Planning 10% 50% More efficient vehicles 15% 58% 4 3.5 Small things add up! A saving of 58% is possible km/ltr 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Driver 1 0.5 Driver 2 0 02/Jun 22/Jun 12/Jul 01/Aug 21/Aug 10/Sep 30/Sep 35 Making a Pledge 36 and a vision for the future in China An integrated power station, stunning architecture, a visitor centre and theme park Biogas Building with support area beneath hill 沼气区和位于人造山下的 支持区域 Biomass Building with storage area beneath hill Municipal Building with support below mound 市政废物区和人造 山下的支持区域 Energy River – Greenhouse of the future 生物质能区和位于人造山 下的储存区域 能源之河-未来温室 Visitor Centre & Solar Research 访客中心和太阳 能研究中心 Main Entrance 主入口 37 And Finally Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." If we do not change direction then we will end up where we are heading and the adverse consequences of Climate Change Combating Climate Change requires • • • • Promotion of Appropriate Renewable Energy, Energy Conservation Carbon Capture and Sequestration in the Future Promoting Awareness to use energy more effectively Supporting the aims of the Programme VISIT the WEB Site www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be displayed on above WEB Site >> follow Academic Links Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови [email protected] 38