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Clean Energy and Climate Change Chris Mottershead integrated response to key drivers security of energy supply economic growth and social progress changes to our environment carbon constraint carbon emissions • there are many uncertainties, and science is always provisional • precautionary action to limit global temperature changes to around 2oC • means limiting atmospheric concentrations of CO2 to 500-550ppm • and therefore aiming for 7Gtc/year of emissions by 2050 7Gtc/year fossil fuel base 1990 2050 reducing emission intensity reduction in carbon intensity carbon emissions (environmental incentives) 1990 fossil fuel base 2050 technology enabled breakthroughs reduction in carbon intensity carbon emissions (environmental incentives) 1990 technology enabled breakthroughs (economic growth incentives) fossil fuel base 2050 policy regimes reduction in carbon intensity carbon emissions (environmental incentives) technology enabled breakthroughs (economic growth incentives) fossil fuel base 1990 2050 engagement and emission constraints business development and competition lower carbon economy stabilization wedge 14 Stabilization Triangle Gtc/year 7 0 1950 2000 2050 Rob Socolow and Steve Pacala Princeton University seven 1Gtc/year wedges 7 wedges are needed to build the stabilisation Wedge 14 7 0 1950 2000 2050 Stabilization Triangle 1 “wedge” 1 wedge Flat path 1 wedge avoids 1 billion tonnes of carbon emissions per year by 2050 possible 1Gtc/year wedges 1. internal combustion engine efficiency 2. demand side reductions, e.g. reduce use of vehicles 3. buildings energy efficiency 4. industrial process efficiency 5. efficient baseload coal plant 8. carbon capture & storage for transport, e.g. synfuels from coal 9. nuclear 10. wind 11. pv solar 12. biomass for transport and power 13. hydrogen from gas 14. zero emission hydrogen 6. gas for coal power 15. forestation 7. carbon capture & storage for power 16. tillage BP achieves its 2010 target 9 years early, having reduced GHG emissions by energy efficiency projects and cutting flaring of unwanted gas, creating $650M in value Based on work at Princeton, BP sets out range of technology options to stabilize GHG emissions over 50 years, including increases in solar, wind, gas-fired power and carbon capture and storage BP announces plans for world’s first commercial hydrogen power station. 2003 2005 2000 2002 2004 BP launches Alternative Energy 1998 1997 BP predicts $1 bn revenue in its solar business in 2007 BP initiates the CO2 Capture Project with other companies and governments, studying methods of capturing and storing carbon dioxide at power plants 2001 BP acknowledges need for precautionary action to cut GHG emissions after exiting the Global Climate Coalition. 1999 climate change – the BP journey BP sets target to cut emissions from operations to 10% below 1990 levels by 2010 BP begins funding the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University, exploring solutions to climate change BP announces plans to build wind farm at Nerefco, Netherlands BP’s solar business moves into profit and announces plans to double production. On track to meet 1997 revenue prediction BP launches carbon dioxide capture and storage project at gas field in Algeria BP’s response – so far • alternative energy – new business, investing $8B over 10 years • • • • profitable PV business with $1B revenues by 2007 450MW of wind by 2008 2 hydrogen power stations under construction by 2008 (UK & US) CCGT (already have 13 GW - 6GW net, plus fleet of 500 turbines) – reducing emissions by 24Mtco2/year by 2015 • sustainable mobility – – – – around 10% of global biofuels market advanced biofuels have considerable potential, possibly 30% of transport fuel Global Choice in Australia offsetting 1MtCO2 lubricants can have a big impact, Castrol in India nearly 0.3 MtCO2/year • increased gas production – one major gas pipeline offsets 120Mtco2, if it displaces coal policy dimensions need for ‘wedges’ to compete with fossil fuels, when carbon externality is included, by support of : • market development engagement of business and consumers • technology development R&D and demonstration projects in those areas identified as being potential ‘wedges’ • business development incentives and support to establish new and competitive businesses policy partnership for business growth • Emissions Cap and Trade or Taxes schemes to drive efficiency into existing infrastructure, • Transitional Incentives to encourage the commercial deployment of near to market technologies like renewables and carbon capture and storage, • Investment Criteria to ensure that all new energy infrastructures are competitive against cost and emission benchmarks, • Public Awareness to create acceptance of public policy and an increasing customer base for clean and secure energy, • Regulation where there is clear market failure, for example energy efficiency in buildings, • Tax and Trade Consistency to remove inconsistencies and barriers, for example to allow the creation of an open global market for biofuels.