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Climate Change – Not Just Hot Air Bruce Peachey, P.Eng. MCIC President, New Paradigm Engineering Ltd. CSChE Halifax – October 2001 Seven Climate Change Views Warming is Not Happening Real Problem is Waste of Fossil Fuels GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation Energy Use Warming Atmosphere Human Impact Minor or Beneficial Can’t Afford the Solutions A New Paradigm View Warming Not Happening Various reports and data adjustments both ways Historical record is not long • What should we expect coming out of a little ice age? Motivation and accuracy of measurement not constant • Are we comparing apples and oranges Global Temperature Increases Changes in measurement, motivation & technology, might have caused two step changes upwards in temperatures 1800 - 1920 best global readings would be near water - No demand for accuracy, just how does it feel (how hot and how cold) Three temperature scales in use Reaumer close to Centigrade • (0oR= 0oC; 80oR= 100oC so Reaumer gives lower readings) • Was there confusion between units in early records? Global Temperature Increases Step 1 - 1917 recognized that tropical and arctic air masses exist and mapping movement of the fronts allows better weather forecasts. Focus on humidity and accurate temperatures Awareness of wet-bulb/dry-bulb grows. • Before this did people care if the thermometer was wet? • Wet thermometers give lower average readings Link to airports inland instead of seaports on the coast. Standardization of procedures, temperature scales, and higher frequency of readings. Global Temperature Increases Step 2 - 1980-90 Transition to digital temperature measurement. Truncated readings have a systemic impact. • “Cooling” in N.A. when Canada went metric? Increase in negative offset. Deg C Actual Digital Thermometer 15.57 15.5 15 30.25 30.2 30 40.75 40.7 40 -10.18 -10.1 -10 Deg F Actual Digital Thermometer 60.026 60 60 86.45 86.4 86 105.35 105.3 105 13.676 13.6 13 Average 35.85 28.06 35.8 28.025 35 27.5 Offset (C) -0.56 96.53 90.508 96.5 90.45 96 90 Offset (C) -0.2822 Historical Climate Data - Wyoming Total of Three Wyoming Sites Source U.S. Historical Climatology Network (N.B. Wyoming less affected by human activity) 48 47 46 44 43 42 41 40 39 19 10 19 15 19 20 19 25 19 30 19 35 19 40 19 45 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 Deg F 45 Historical Climate Data - Tennessee 60 59.8 59.6 59.4 59.2 59 58.8 58.6 58.4 58.2 58 57.8 57.6 57.4 57.2 57 Average (1887-1994) Decade Averages 18 87 18 95 19 03 19 11 19 19 19 27 19 35 19 43 19 51 19 59 19 67 19 75 19 83 19 91 Deg F Tennessee 15/15 Time Homogeneous Stations Decade Average - Time Homogeneous Readings Source - U.S. Historical Climatology Netw ork (N.B. Peaks correspond to peak industrial activity in the region) Real Problem is Waste of Fossil Fuels Sources of easy to access fuels running out At some point we will reach energy breakeven • i.e. energy required to recover = energy recovered • Some major deposits (e.g. natural gas hydrates or coal bed methane) may not breakeven. Future supply is a big unkown • Anywhere from 30-100+ years to infinite if fossil fuels are still being formed. (Why wouldn’t they be?) • What will be the next energy source? Alberta Overall Carbon Balance Alberta Carbon Inventory All Sources = 300,000+ Mt (?) Natural Gas Exports = 62 Mt/yr Agri & Wood Exports = 6 Mt/yr Petroleum Exports = 79 Mt/yr Coal Exports = 11 Mt/yr Net to Atmosphere Petro-Chemicals Exports = 31 Mt/yr = 7 Mt/yr Alberta can continue to supply for 1500 years based on total ca But only 50 years based on economic reserves! GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation Theory has some holes Warming often leads GHG increase • Ref: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/vostok.htm Current CO2 levels unprecedented? • Yet it has been over 16-18 times higher in the past. • “New Views on an Old Planet”, – Tjeerd H. Van Andel Shouldn’t GHG effect cause relatively uniform heating and peak during the daylight hours? • No sign of “Global Climate Changes” only regional or local change • Most of the warming is due to higher night time temperatures and warming in Arctic/Antarctic areas. What does Ice Core Data Say? Ice core data from Vostok and Sipple sites does indicate: • CO2 and CH4 levels in the atmosphere tend to vary with temperature. • Increases in CO2/CH4 are in step with or lag by ~1000 yrs the temperature increase. • Decreases in CO2/CH4 lag behind on set of glaciation Concentrations measured are not comparable to direct atmospheric measurement • Ice is not inert with respect to CO2/CH4 which it can absorb or adsorb • Air had to move for years through meters of snow and ice before it was trapped in a bubble. • CO2/CH4 can form hydrates in the bubbles or in deep snow or ice Conclusion – Ice cores indicate trends in concentration, but measurements do not indicate absolute atmospheric concentrations. The Case of the “Missing Carbon” The Facts Global Carbon Emissions: • Emissions fossil fuel and cement = 5.4 Gt/yr • Deforestation & land-use = 0.5-2.5 Gt/yr Carbon Accumulation in Atmosphere: • Calculated increase = 3.4 Gt/yr Remainder (2-4 Gt/yr) is Missing! • Unexplained sink of CO2 in the northern hemisphere Are we already sequestering carbon? • Do we get credits for it? The Textbook Carbon Cycle Atmosphere 700 Gt 100 Gt Oceans 39,100 Gt Combustion 5 Gt 113 Gt Combustion .5 to 2 Gt Fossil Fuels & Shale 19,300 Gt Vegetation & Humus 1,760 Gt Source: “Introduction to Environmental Science” Reality is More Complicated Atmosphere 700 Gt +/-?100 Gt (-.4 Gt?) Combustion 5 Gt Homes/Landfills etc. 113 Gt Combustion .5 to 2 Gt +/-? 0.6 Gt Sewers 1-1.5 Gt “Fossil” Fuels & Shale Oceans Vegetation & 19,300 Gt 39,100 Gt Humus ? Gt subducted sediments 1,760 Gt ? Gt subsea seeps ? Gt Sedimentation and formation of carbonates Energy Use Warming Atmosphere Current energy use enough to warm atmosphere 1 degree C per year. • 450 EJ to warm atmosphere 1 degree C • Estimate 1996 energy use was 550 EJ. • Most use ---> Warming of Air This was pointed out by a British chemist • Does not seem to be included in climate models? Adding Energy Makes Things More Energetic! Water vapour from combustion also not included? Human Impact Minor or Beneficial Main impact on global temperature is solar energy output CO2 is necessary for life. • The more CO2 the more energy there is for life. • The more energy the more diversity in living things. Organisms transfer CO2 from air and oceans into long term storage in sediments. • Less than 0.1 to 1 billion years of supply left. • Versus 5-10 billion years before the sun expands! Can’t Afford the Solutions Costly and no other benefit to collect most CO2 from fossil fuel sources. Wind, “Biomass”, Solar, Nuclear, Hydroelectric and other Energy supplies have their own problems. • Local impacts on ecology, increase demand for land/water, require high tech materials, expensive, long term impacts Conserving energy is usually cost effective. • Side benefit is less energy produced and less GHG, water vapour produced, but more wealth generated. The New Paradigm View It’s The WATER! Global Water Cycle (km3 x 103/yr = Tt/yr) Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton What is the impact of this! 40 +4 71 111 Land 425 385 Ocean 40 (–10% due to human water use) Compare the Numbers Fossil Fuel Combustion Energy to Atmosphere • 500 - 750 x 109 GJ/yr • 500 – 750 EJ/yr (exajoules) • Mainly a one shot deal as energy radiated • 9000+ x 109 GJ/yr • 9000+ EJ/yr (exajoules) • Keeps on giving until it reaches the ocean! Carbon to Atmosphere • 3.4 Gt/yr - Net Measured from all sources. (What portion is due to combustion?) Water to Atmosphere • 4,000 Gt/yr • -10% of Surface flow to oceans • +5% of Land Evaporation Water to Atmosphere • 7.5 – 10 Gt/yr • 1 t CH4 2 t H2O • 1 t Oil 1 t H2O Water Losses (2/3 irrigation) Energy to Atmosphere Carbon to Atmosphere • Unknown (+/-) due to plant growth vs. decay in new agricultural areas under The Heat Pipe Effect Day/Night Cycles Water Transport Water added in Hot Dry Areas Water gives Up Heat and Falls In Cold Areas Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Water Vapour Concentrations 1981-1994 Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375 (1995) Altitude (km) Conc (ppm) Avg Annual Increase (%) 10-12 59.2 1.03 12-14 11.88 0.49 14-16 4.66 0.54 16-18 3.87 0.73 18-20 3.85 0.84 20-22 4.07 0.54 22-24 4.21 0.38 24-26 4.29 0.34 Summary for Water Vapour Water is more important than CO2/CH4 for climate change • Source of water and energy for weather Climate changes observed in last few decades more than forecast for CO2 doubling, and doubling hasn’t happened. A 5% increase in water to the atmosphere due to human water use, mainly in the northern hemisphere, is a better explanation Higher water evaporation from dry areas (I.e. southern California) more likely to cause unusual weather patterns. Water is the immediate concern and problem. Climate change and water shortages/surpluses causing human disasters. GHG impacts may still be a concern, but much lower impact Water also may impact ozone depletion The Balance of Evidence - Says... Warming IS Happening in some Regions (e.g. Arctic) “Fossil” Fuel waste IS a Real Problem (Renewable?) GHGs Trapping SOME Solar Heat (How much?) Energy Use IS Warming Atmosphere (Must a bit) Human Impact COULD BE Harmful or Beneficial (??) Can’t Afford SOME Solutions (Need to pick best ones) Enhanced Water Evaporation SHOULD BE THE Does It Matter Which View is Right? Likely no one view is entirely right. Best strategy is to find “Robust Solutions” which: • • • • Minimize Water added to atmosphere Reduce Energy Waste Reduce rate of Fossil Fuel Consumption Reduce GHG emissions (CO2, CH4 & H2O) • Create Wealth (improve average standard of living) New Paradigms? Changes in water use a likely source of climate changes. Combine efforts and resources of climate change and water conservation. Rethink Kyoto. It might make current problems worse. More effort to study regional and global hydrologic cycles instead of global simulations Climate studies should involve more disciplines Challenge the common knowledge Contact Information New Paradigm Engineering Ltd. c/o Advanced Technology Centre #130, 9650-20 Avenue Edmonton, Alberta Canada T6N 1G1 tel: 780.448-9195 fax: 780.462.7297 email: [email protected] web: www.newparadigm.ab.ca