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Transcript
Adaptation – learning from case
studies for adaptation policies
and sustainable development
Habiba Gitay
World Resources Institute
[email protected]
Climate, Energy and Pollution Program
World Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org
What I want to cover….
Human activities
Multiple pressures
Responses
Impacts: Ecosystems,
ecosystem services,
human well-being
Natural and
human capital
Use this approach to for case studies
WRI
Human activities
Population/demographic
Consumption/production
Technological changes
Human activities
^GHG
LULCC
Human activities
Air pollution,
aerosols
^GHG
Strat
ozone dep
LULCC
Pers org poll
Human activities
Air pollution,
aerosols
^GHG
Strat
ozone dep
Climate change
LULCC
Pers org poll
Human activities
Air pollution,
aerosols
^GHG
LULCC
Pers org poll
Strat
ozone dep
Climate change
Changes in
biodiversity
Land
degradation
Water
degradation
Linkages….
Between Climate change, Land degradation, water
degradation and loss in biodiversity
Land
degradation
Water
degradation
Climate
change
changes in
Biodiversity
strong
medium
weak
Human activities
Air pollution,
aerosols
^GHG
LULCC
Pers org poll
Strat
ozone dep
Climate change
Human well-being
Environment sustainability
-ve
Changes in
biodiversity
Land
degradation
Water
degradation
Ecosystem Services
The benefits people obtain from ecosystems
•Provisioning
•Goods produced
or provided by
ecosystems
• food
• fresh water
• fuel wood
• fiber
• biochemicals
• genetic
resources
•Regulating
•Benefits
obtained from
regulation of
ecosystem
processes
• climate
regulation
• disease control
• flood control
• detoxification
•Cultural
•Non-material
benefits
obtained from
ecosystems
• spiritual
• recreational
• aesthetic
• inspirational
• educational
• communal
• symbolic
•
Supporting
• Services that
maintain the
conditions for
life on earth.
• Soil formation
• Nutrient
cycling
• Pollination
WRI
Human activities
Air pollution,
aerosols
^GHG
LULCC
Pers org poll
Strat
ozone dep
Climate change
Human well-being
Environment sustainability
-ve
Changes in
biodiversity
Responses
to reverse trends
Responses
and meet sust dev
goals
Land
degradation
Water
degradation
Human activities
Air pollution,
aerosols
^GHG
LULCC
Pers org poll
Strat
ozone dep
Climate change
Human well-being
Environmental
sustainability
Economic
-ve
Legal &
institutional
Changes in
biodiversity
Social &
behavioural
Land
degradation
Science, tech
& transfer
Water
degradation
Response options for developing policies
•
Economic
•
Legal and institutional
•
Social and Behavioural
•
Science, technology, technology transfer
•
All of these can be part of adaptation
WRI
What is our approach…..
•
Multiple stages
•
Initial stage – a set of case studies focused on
water and agriculture in specific landscapes
•
Ask a series of questions to analyse what is
happening on the ground before going into
future planned adaptation (network..)
WRI
Our approach….a series of questions
•
What is the status of the ecosystems, ecosystem
services and human well-being?
•
What are the multiple pressures that affect these
landscapes and human societies?
•
How do individuals/households, formal and informal
institutions respond to these pressures including
climatic extremes?
•
What are the projected changes? (scenarios..)
•
Can the present responses cope with future changes?
Adaptation –short-term, medium and long-term
WRI
Our approach….scenario and their uses
•
Scenario development
•
Aspiration of people at local level
•
Sustainable development plans at
state/regional/national level
•
projections of how pressures (LULCC,
population, consumption patterns) are
changing, Climate change projections
WRI
Our approach… future stages…
•
Awareness raising
•
Information – generation and dissemination
• planning and decision-making
• private sector???
•
Tools and methods (maybe)
•
Resources
WRI
So in conclusion
•
Work in specific landscapes/watersheds
•
•
Pilots, learning by doing; understand
present
Inclusion of multiple pressures
•
Climate change exacerbating them – may
be dominant in future
WRI
In conclusion
•
Consider ecosystem services and tradeoffs
between them in space and time
•
Consider developing scenarios/storylines
•
Use “adaptation” as a vehicle for addressing
multiple pressures and maybe indirect drivers
(root causes) and moving towards sustainable
development
WRI