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Oregon’s Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions and Adapt to Climate Change: A Brief Status Report Richard Whitman, Director Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development October 8, 2010 Fall Canceled After 3 Billion Seasons WASHINGTON, DC—Fall, the long- running series of shorter days and cooler nights, was canceled earlier this week after nearly 3 billion seasons on Earth, sources reported Tuesday “As much as we'd like to see it stay, fall will not be returning for another season," National Weather Service president John Hayes announced during a muggy press conference Nov. 6. "Fall had a great run, but sadly, times have changed." Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Overview Mitigation – Focus on Transportation and Land Use Adaptation – Focus on Hazards Planning Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Existing State Legislative Goals for GHG Reduction By 2010 stop growth By 2020 – 10% below 1990 By 2050 – 75% below 1990 HB 3543 (2007) Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Oregon GHG Goals vs. Forecast Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Key Recent Oregon Legislation Mitigation HB 3543 (2007) (GHG reduction goals, Global Warming Commission, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute) SB 838 (2007) (renewable portfolio standard) HB 2186 (2009) (low carbon fuel standard 10% reduction per unit fuel over 10 years) HB 2001 (2009) (Transportation GHG target for Portland Metro, transportation and land use planning to meet target) SB 1059 (2010) (Transportation GHG target for other MPO areas) Adaptation? Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 HB 2001 and SB 1059 Portland Metro (HB 2001) Technical Inputs by DEQ, ODOE, ODOT Target for 2035 set by LCDC in June 2011 Metro develops 2+ scenarios by 2012 LCDC adopts rules for selection of preferred scenario by 2013 Preferred Plan adopted and implemented beginning in 2013 Other MPO Areas (Salem, Corvallis, EugeneSpringfield, Medford and Bend) (SB 1059) Statewide Strategy (OTC) Targets for other areas set by LCDC in June 2011 Toolkit, Planning Guidelines Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Statewide Transportation Strategy Technical Info for LCDC Rulemaking Statewide strategy for reducing GHG emissions from the transportation sector to aid in achieving legislated GHG reduction targets. ODOT, DEQ, and ODOE provide estimates of 1990 light vehicle GHG emissions and forecasts of future vehicle fleet and fuel characteristics. To be adopted by the Oregon Transportation Commission. Scenario Planning Guidelines Guidelines and process for metropolitan areas to develop land use and transportation scenarios to meet GHG reduction targets. Toolkit Information on actions and programs local governments may undertake to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles. •Technical Advisory Committee • Policy Committee • Technical Advisory Committee LCDC Rulemaking to Set Metropolitan Area Light Vehicle GHG Emissions Targets Scenario Planning Financial Report •Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC) Joint ODOT, DLCD, local governments report to 76th Legislative Assembly on financing scenario planning Public Education Statewide public outreach and education about the need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles and about the costs and benefits of reducing GHG emissions. Progress and Recommendations Report Joint ODOT & DLCD report to 77th Legislative Assembly regarding SB 1059 progress. Technical Estimates of Vehicles, Fuels, VMT By ODOT, DEQ, ODOE 1990 and 2035 baseline estimates of: Vehicle fleet Fuels VMT Informs state strategy and target setting Advisory Committees All advisory committees will review Schedule Final due by March 1, 2011 Draft expected sooner Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Statewide Transportation Strategy By ODOT/OTC Covers transportation sector; statewide State programs and policies to reduce GHG Includes assumptions about federal policies Advisory Committees Policy Committee Technical Advisory Committee Schedule Phase 1 – Early 2011 - Light vehicles Phase 2 – Late 2011 – Remainder of transportation sector (heavy vehicles, air, marine, rail etc.) Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Target Rulemaking By LCDC For each metropolitan area Informed by agency estimates and statewide strategy Advisory Committee Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC) Schedule Due by June 1, 2011 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Scenario Planning Guidelines By ODOT and DLCD Advisory Process for scenario planning Steps/ who does it Assumptions Evaluation methods Allow for a range of actions for reducing GHG Integrate with existing planning processes Advisory Committee Scenario Planning Technical Advisory Committee Schedule Draft by April 2011 Final Fall 2011 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Toolkit By ODOT and DLCD Best Practices for GHG reduction Local & regional programs and actions Recommend Analysis and Modeling Tools Schedule Provide examples Document GHG reduction effects Identify benefits/ co-benefits Draft by April 2011 Final Fall 2011 Cool Planning: Version 1.0 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Cool Planning (www.oregon.gov/LCD/TGM/index) Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Scenario Planning Funding Report By ODOT/DLCD in consultation with metropolitan local governments Estimate funding local governments need to conduct scenario planning Schedule Report to Legislature due January 2011 Consultation starts later this month Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Education & Outreach Strategy to be developed Outreach to public about Need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicle travel Costs and benefits of GHG emission reduction Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Part 2: Climate Change Adaptation in Oregon Climate Change Integration Group (CCIG) Report (Jan. 2008) (initial recommendations for adaptation OCCRI – State of the Climate Science in Oregon (Dec. 2010) Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregon 1. Increase in average annual air temperatures 2. Changes in hydrology, water supply, and water quality; reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins, changes in timing of water availability 3. Increased incidence of drought 4. Increased coastal erosion from increasing sea levels and increasing wave heights and storm surges related to intensification of North Pacific winter storms 5. Shift in distribution of habitats and species, with a likely increase in invasive species and reduced ability of terrestrial and aquatic habitats to support wildlife species and populations Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregon 6. Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes in ocean chemistry (nutrients and dissolved oxygen) and increased ocean acidification 7. Increased frequency of extreme daily precipitation events 8. Increase in wildfire frequency and intensity 9. Increase in incidence and magnitude of damaging floods 10. Increase in incidence of landslides 11. Increase in diseases, insect pests, and plant pests 12. Loss of wetland ecosystem services Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Outline of Adaptation Framework 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Risk assessment Likelihood of the risk Timing and geography of the risk Related risks Summary of consequences of the risk Ecosystems Built and developed systems Economic systems Public health and safety 6. Gaps in state capacity to address the risk: 7. Needed actions a. Priority Actions b. Actions that apply to several risks c. Additional actions 8. Implementing the framework a. Information base for decisions b. Monitoring c. Coordination with local governments, federal agencies, & other partners 9. References Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Adaptation Framework: Short-Term Priority Actions For each major risk – short term priority actions that the state should consider (low hanging fruit) Initial cost-benefit analysis Delivered to the new Governor and legislature in December 2010 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010 Questions? More Information: GHG Mitigation in Transportation: Bob Cortright [[email protected]] Climate Adaptation Framework: Jeff Weber [[email protected]] Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning October 2010