Download Planning for Climate Change

Oregon’s Efforts to Reduce GHG
Emissions and Adapt to Climate
Change: A Brief Status Report
Richard Whitman, Director
Oregon Department of Land Conservation
and Development
October 8, 2010
Fall Canceled
After 3 Billion Seasons
WASHINGTON, DC—Fall, the long- running series of shorter
days and cooler nights, was canceled earlier this week after
nearly 3 billion seasons on Earth, sources reported Tuesday
“As much as we'd like to see it stay, fall will not be returning
for another season," National Weather Service president
John Hayes announced during a muggy press conference
Nov. 6. "Fall had a great run, but sadly, times have
changed."
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Overview
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Mitigation – Focus on Transportation
and Land Use
Adaptation – Focus on Hazards
Planning
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Existing State Legislative
Goals for GHG Reduction
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By 2010 stop growth
By 2020 – 10% below 1990
By 2050 – 75% below 1990
HB 3543 (2007)
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Oregon GHG Goals vs. Forecast
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Key Recent Oregon Legislation
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Mitigation
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HB 3543 (2007) (GHG reduction goals, Global
Warming Commission, Oregon Climate Change
Research Institute)
SB 838 (2007) (renewable portfolio standard)
HB 2186 (2009) (low carbon fuel standard
10% reduction per unit fuel over 10 years)
HB 2001 (2009) (Transportation GHG target
for Portland Metro, transportation and land
use planning to meet target)
SB 1059 (2010) (Transportation GHG target
for other MPO areas)
Adaptation?
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
HB 2001 and SB 1059
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Portland Metro (HB 2001)
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Technical Inputs by DEQ, ODOE, ODOT
Target for 2035 set by LCDC in June 2011
Metro develops 2+ scenarios by 2012
LCDC adopts rules for selection of preferred scenario by
2013
Preferred Plan adopted and implemented beginning in
2013
Other MPO Areas (Salem, Corvallis, EugeneSpringfield, Medford and Bend) (SB 1059)
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Statewide Strategy (OTC)
Targets for other areas set by LCDC in June 2011
Toolkit, Planning Guidelines
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Oregon Transportation
GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Statewide
Transportation
Strategy
Technical Info
for LCDC
Rulemaking
Statewide strategy
for reducing GHG
emissions from the
transportation sector
to aid in achieving
legislated GHG
reduction targets.
ODOT, DEQ, and
ODOE provide
estimates of 1990
light vehicle GHG
emissions and
forecasts of future
vehicle fleet and fuel
characteristics.
To be adopted by the
Oregon
Transportation
Commission.
Scenario Planning
Guidelines
Guidelines and
process for
metropolitan areas to
develop land use and
transportation
scenarios to meet
GHG reduction
targets.
Toolkit
Information on
actions and
programs local
governments may
undertake to
reduce GHG
emissions from
light vehicles.
•Technical Advisory
Committee
• Policy Committee
• Technical
Advisory
Committee
LCDC Rulemaking to Set
Metropolitan Area Light Vehicle
GHG Emissions Targets
Scenario Planning Financial
Report
•Target Rulemaking Advisory
Committee (TRAC)
Joint ODOT, DLCD, local governments
report to 76th Legislative Assembly on
financing scenario planning
Public
Education
Statewide public
outreach and
education about
the need to
reduce GHG
emissions from
light vehicles and
about the costs
and benefits of
reducing GHG
emissions.
Progress and Recommendations
Report
Joint ODOT & DLCD report to 77th
Legislative Assembly regarding SB
1059 progress.
Technical Estimates of Vehicles,
Fuels, VMT
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By ODOT, DEQ, ODOE
1990 and 2035 baseline estimates of:
 Vehicle fleet
 Fuels
 VMT
Informs state strategy and target setting
Advisory Committees
 All advisory committees will review
Schedule
 Final due by March 1, 2011
 Draft expected sooner
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Statewide Transportation Strategy
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By ODOT/OTC
 Covers transportation sector; statewide
 State programs and policies to reduce GHG
 Includes assumptions about federal policies
Advisory Committees
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Policy Committee
Technical Advisory Committee
Schedule
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Phase 1 – Early 2011 - Light vehicles
Phase 2 – Late 2011 – Remainder of
transportation sector (heavy vehicles, air,
marine, rail etc.)
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Target Rulemaking
By LCDC
 For each metropolitan area
 Informed by agency estimates and statewide
strategy
Advisory Committee
Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC)
Schedule
 Due by June 1, 2011
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Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Scenario Planning Guidelines
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By ODOT and DLCD
Advisory
Process for scenario planning
 Steps/ who does it
 Assumptions
 Evaluation methods
Allow for a range of actions for reducing GHG
Integrate with existing planning processes
Advisory Committee
Scenario Planning Technical Advisory Committee
Schedule
 Draft by April 2011
 Final Fall 2011
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Toolkit
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By ODOT and DLCD
Best Practices for GHG reduction
Local & regional programs and actions
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Recommend Analysis and Modeling Tools
Schedule
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Provide examples
Document GHG reduction effects
Identify benefits/ co-benefits
Draft by April 2011
Final Fall 2011
Cool Planning: Version 1.0
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Cool Planning
(www.oregon.gov/LCD/TGM/index)
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Scenario Planning Funding
Report
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By ODOT/DLCD in consultation with metropolitan
local governments
Estimate funding local governments need to
conduct scenario planning
Schedule
 Report to Legislature due January 2011
 Consultation starts later this month
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Education & Outreach
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Strategy to be developed
Outreach to public about
 Need to reduce GHG emissions from light
vehicle travel
 Costs and benefits of GHG emission reduction
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Part 2:
Climate Change Adaptation
in Oregon
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Climate Change Integration Group
(CCIG) Report (Jan. 2008) (initial
recommendations for adaptation
OCCRI – State of the Climate
Science in Oregon (Dec. 2010)
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Likely changes in future
climate conditions in Oregon
1. Increase in average annual air temperatures
2. Changes in hydrology, water supply, and water quality;
reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins,
changes in timing of water availability
3. Increased incidence of drought
4. Increased coastal erosion from increasing sea levels and
increasing wave heights and storm surges related to
intensification of North Pacific winter storms
5. Shift in distribution of habitats and species, with a likely
increase in invasive species and reduced ability of
terrestrial and aquatic habitats to support wildlife species
and populations
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Likely changes in future
climate conditions in Oregon
6. Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes
in ocean chemistry (nutrients and dissolved oxygen) and
increased ocean acidification
7. Increased frequency of extreme daily precipitation events
8. Increase in wildfire frequency and intensity
9. Increase in incidence and magnitude of damaging floods
10. Increase in incidence of landslides
11. Increase in diseases, insect pests, and plant pests
12. Loss of wetland ecosystem services
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Outline of Adaptation Framework
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Risk assessment
Likelihood of the risk
Timing and geography of the risk
Related risks
Summary of consequences of the risk
Ecosystems
Built and developed systems
Economic systems
Public health and safety
6. Gaps in state capacity to address the risk:
7. Needed actions
a. Priority Actions
b. Actions that apply to several risks
c. Additional actions
8. Implementing the framework
a. Information base for decisions
b. Monitoring
c. Coordination with local governments, federal agencies,
& other partners
9. References
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Adaptation Framework:
Short-Term Priority Actions
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For each major risk – short term
priority actions that the state should
consider (low hanging fruit)
Initial cost-benefit analysis
Delivered to the new Governor and
legislature in December 2010
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010
Questions?
More Information:
GHG Mitigation in Transportation:
Bob Cortright
[[email protected]]
Climate Adaptation Framework:
Jeff Weber
[[email protected]]
Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010