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SYNERGIES BETWEEN MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION THROUGH AGROFORESTRY AND COMMUNITY FORESTRY Louis Verchot 1800 Climate Change is Here Kigoma Mbala 1600 Lake Tanganyika: Steady increase in rainfall over last century Total Rainfall 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Fournier Index of rainfall agressivity 4000 Kigoma Mbala Steady increase in rainfall intensity (erosivity) over last century 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 1900 1920 1940 1960 Year 1980 2000 Climate Change is Here Observed Changes 1950-1995 Green = wetter Orange = drier (Source: Goddard and Graham, 1999) What can we expect from climate in the future? Short answer: more of the same! Maize yield Change in yields <-2000 -1000 -250 +250 +1000 >2000 Jones and Thornton (2003) Jones and Thornton (2003) Despite the efforts of scientific and development organizations increase in agricultural productivity in SSA is slow. 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year All cereals (5.2 hg ha-1 over 33 years) Maize productivity (t ha-1) Productivity (t ha-1) 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Maize (6.8 kg ha-1 over 33 years) Source: FAOSTAT Maize productivity (t ha-1) Since 1985 cereal yields have stagnated. 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 1985 1990 1995 Year Source: FAOSTAT 2000 Harvested area (x 106 ha) Increases in agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa have been largely through the extensification of agriculture. 90 80 70 60 50 40 1970 1980 1990 Year Source: FAOSTAT 2000 The result is increasing food insecurity in SSA How does all this relate to regional development aspirations? The combination of population growth, expansion of farming to marginal land, inappropriate agricultural practices, and climate change leads to some dramatic land degradation, which compromises future sustainable development. We need to consider ‘adaptation’ for agricultural productivity because • The primary drivers of Clim are not going to stop • Global conventions are not sufficiently effective to stop the increase of GHG concentrations • Mitigation effects will only provide a partial ‘softening’ of the effects of CC • Therefore, local climates and terrestrial ecosystems will change, threatening biota and human livelihood, Yet, we hope that food & fibre production, ‘environmental services’ and ‘rural livelihoods’ can improve, not just maintained Farm level sustainability challenges C signal * ** ** * * Land access Markets (inputs, outputs; access, prices) Knowledge (basic principles, innovative cap.) Technologies (strategic & tactical interventions) Water (drought, flooding, irrigation, drainage) Soil fertility Pest & disease On-farm labour (HH size, off-farm act., illness) Weeds Potential production of germplasm used Angry neighbours Dissatisfied customers In addition to C sequestration Agroforestry and community forestry can help reduce the pressure on forests by raising the productivity of land Short and Long duration fallows Senna siamea (Chipata, Zambia) Single species fallows of Crotalaria and sesbania (Mutumbu, w.Kenya) Improved fallows can contribute to increased grain yield 7 SED -1 Grain yield (t ha ) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Control Fertilizer Glircidia fallow 0 1995 (580) 1996 (1158) 1997 (927) 1998 (1077) 1999 (1209) 2000 (789) Year (Annual rainfall (mm)) Data: Msekera, Zambia P. Mafongoya 2001 (1342) 2002 (832) 2003 (1402) Biological Nitrogen fixation (kg ha-1) by coppicing fallow species across sites in eastern Zambia. Species/provenances Acacia angustisma-34/88 Kalicero 158 Kalunga 374 Calliandra.calothyrsus-Embu 69 187 Grilicidia. Sepium-Retalhuleu 190 464 Leucaena collinsii-45/88 301 331 Leucaena pallida 91 119 Improved fallows decrease soil erosion losses Tephrosia Minimum tillage Tephrosia Conventional tillage Crotalaria Minimum tillage Crotalaria Conventional tillage Continuous maize Minimum tillage Continuous maize conventional tillage 0 400 800 1200 Soil loss (kg ha-1) 1600 2000 Infiltration rates are higher under fallows (Msekera, eastern Zambia) Infiltration rate (mm hr -1) 40 30 20 10 0 Sesbania sesban Tephrosia vogelii Natural fallow Treatments October 2000 Source; Nyamadzowo et al 2002 October 2001 Maize with fertilizer Siratro There are significant mitigation potentials through forestry sinks Source: IPCC LULUCF Report Wetland restoration Restoration degraded lands Agroforestry Forest management Grazingland management Rice management Cropland management 0 10 20 30 40 Gt CO2e 50 60 70 80 C sequestration in AF and CF Vegetation Carbon (Mg ha-1) 400 Primary Forest 300 Managed forest 200 100 Tree-based systems From ASB Climate Change Working Group,Palm et al. Crops, Pastures, Grasslands Costs of enhancing sinks using CF and AF Back of the envelope calculation IPCC LULUCF report suggested that within 10 years: • 10% of land could be under improved pasture management • 20 % of available land could be under improved agroforestry By 2040, 40% of the available land could be under improved agroforestry Agroforest Production Systems Multistory systems with tree crops Examples: Pine, coffee, banana system, Indonesia Peach Palm, Peru Jungle rubber system, Indonesia Cacao systems, Cameroon C accumulation in a model woodlot system in W. Kenya SOIL CARBON DEAD WOOD MASS LITTER MASS BELOW GROUND BIOMASS ABOVE GROUND BIOMASS Net biomass and carbon stocks (tonnes per hectare) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 Time (Years) 20 25 Scenarios of C sequestration Permanent agroforestry (IPCC) Time (years) Land area (M ha) conversion Rate of C C of area gain (%) (tC ha-1 y-1) (Mt y-1) Community forestry (ENCOFOR) Rate of C gain (tC ha-1 y-1) Carbon (Mt y-1) Agroforestry 10 630 20 3.1 391 1.26 159 20 27 521 212 30 33 651 265 Costs over two rotations • Plantation establishment – $780 • Operational costs – $440 • C monitoring – $190 • C documentation – $60 • Total costs – $1470 per ha • Equivalent of $10.04 per tCO2e Applying the concept of additionality, C finance only has to overcome the financial barrier in years 1-3 2500 IRR = 22% w/o C finance Cash flow ($) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Year Rotation agroforestry $4.36 per tCO2e Permanent agroforestry $1.77 per tCO2e 17 19 21 23 25 Recommendations • Need to make C finance work for multiple benefits including poverty reduction. • Need to make C finance work in countries that do not necessarily have high deforestation emissions levels • Need for demonstration projects that generate real benefits in rural communities Some first steps to accomplish this • Overcome the technical constraints of measurement and monitoring • Address institutional constraints in developing countries (CDM and JI are bureaucratic) • Address the thorny issue of permanence within the context of sustainable development • Establish standards of meeting the sustainable development goals • We need project development tools for partners in these countries