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Regional Adaptation to shocks Key Points •Challenges of Climate Change: questions of managing uncertainty •Risk management approach: questions of strategies to manage risk Catharina Williams Risk, uncertainty, vulnerability, adaptability • Attitudes to risk are based on values, culture and institutional/ individual long term goal (BRS 2006) Uncertainty Unknown Known probability Vulnerability Exposure to a threat Risk Random event Adaptability/ resilience Graphics: Tourism QLD© Inter-related research: Risk, vulnerability and adaptability • Regional and industrial base analysis of existing climate stresses and natural disasters provide basis for identifying future risks • Analysis of the past adaptation/experience in various industries dealing with shocks provide insights into dealing with future risks Graphics: Tourism QLD© Focus on Regions Series BITRE works to understand regions: touches on vulnerability and adaptation from an economic perspective Understanding Regional Adaptation • E.g. Western Australia’s wheat-belt: Aggregate Real Taxable Income (ARTI) model for small regions shows impacts of shocks such as drought, flood and commodity price crashes (BTRE 2005, Focus on Region 3) • Adaptation varies depending on structure of region, its governance dynamics, human and social capital Graphics: Tourism QLD© Focus of presentations • Structural adjustment in the Australian farm sector • Industry and Community Adaptation to Climate Change • Do communities recover well from disaster? References • BITRE, 2005a, 2005b, 2004, 2003, Focus on Region (various reports) • Bureau of Rural Science 2006, Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture • Devereux, S., 2001, Livelihood Insecurity and Social Protection, World Policy Review 2001,19 (4): 507-519 Graphics: Dept of Infrastructure©