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Hard facts on atmospheric CO2 concentration, and a sure way to stabilise it??? 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1750 Gas fuel consumption Liquid fuel consumption Solid fuel consumption Cement production Gas flaring (Unit: 109 kg) 1800 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement 30000 25000 20000 (Unit: 109 kg) 15000 10000 5000 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini CO2 concentration in the atmosphere 400 383.7 375 350 (Unit: ppmv) 325 300 275 1750 1800 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Global temperature (land meteorological stations) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/graphics/gl_land.gif 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Global temperature (land + ocean) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/graphics/gl_land_ocean.gif 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Global temperature (North and South) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/graphics/nhsh.gif 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Global temperature has risen by o more than 0.6 C during the last 100 years. Global temperature has not varied o by more than 1 or 2 C during the past 10,000 years. Global Warming has begun, and so has the Climate Change. 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Consequences………… 75% of the ice on Kilimanjaro has been lost since 1912, and all ice could vanish soon. 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Consequences………… 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Consequences………… • death of coral reefs • fewer cubs for polar bears • spread of dengue and other diseases • heavy rains & severe draughts • fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes • changed rainfall patterns • warming and aridity • loss of biodiversity 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Rate of increase of CO2 concentration 3 2.5 (Unit: ppmv/year) 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 2010 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv) 500 475 450 actual value at 1.5 ppmv/year at 2.0 ppmv/year at 2.5 ppmv/year 425 global temperature may be up by 2oC 400 375 350 2000 11 Jan 2008 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 R. Shanthini At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached in 2018, and it is probable that the global temperature o would go up by 2 C (compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF). -Accelerated Climate Change -Mass extinctions -Ecosystems breakdowns -Large scale discontinuities 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Some say, forget about the 2oC. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2. It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value), which we may reach not. 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv) 650 600 550 actual value at 1.5 ppmv/year at 2.0 ppmv/year at 2.5 ppmv/year 500 450 We are lucky. Are we? 400 350 2000 11 Jan 2008 2025 2050 Year 2075 2100 R. Shanthini How to stop further global warming, climate change, and the terrible consequences of increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere? 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs). But, we replace our forests with cities, highways & golf courses. Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees. 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming. How long does it take to grow a tree like this? 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Option 2: Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources What are they? Nuclear Hydro Renewables (Geothermal, Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Energy from sustainably managed renewable sources Solar energy Wind energy Hydropower Ocean energy Geothermal Biomass & organic waste Biomass & organic waste 11 Jan 2008 Photovoltaic thermal waves, tides heat heat DC electricity AC electricity, hot water, space heating etc. AC electricity AC electricity AC electricity AC electricity, hot water, space heating etc. heat, organic fuels AC electricity, hot water, space heating etc. Ulf Bossel – October 2005 R. Shanthini Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 1015 BTU) 175 Petroleum 150 Coal 125 100 Dry Natural Gas 75 Hydroelectric Power 50 25 0 1980 Nuclear Electric Power 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 Electric Power from Renewables http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 50% Petroleum 45% 40% Coal 35% 30% Dry Natural Gas 25% 20% Hydroelectric Power 15% 10% Nuclear Electric Power 5% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 Electric Power from Renewables http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980 Fossil fuel Nuclear Electric Power Hydroelectric Power Electric Power from Renewables 1985 1990 Year 1995 enlarge 2000 2005 http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 8% 6% 4% Hydroelectric Power Nuclear Electric Power Electric Power from Renewables 2% 0% 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini There is no immediate financial benefits for a switch to renewable energy in the profitoriented energy markets. 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Option 3: Reduce Population More people More pollution 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini in 2004 If you are in USA, you will be lighting 15 bulbs, each with 100 W power If you are in China, you will be lighting 2 bulbs, each with 100 W power 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini 100% Low income 80% 60% Lower middle income 40% Upper middle income 20% High income 0% CO2 (metric tons per capita) in 2003 11 Jan 2008 Population GDP per capita, PPP (const 2000 International $) R. Shanthini Should not we rethink about economic growth (increasing GDP per capita), at any cost? 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus: “You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but you must not give them fire for that belongs to the Immortals.” – Roger Lancelyn Green Tales of the Greek Heroes Puffin Classics 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini Option 4 to stabilise atmospheric CO2 concentration? Think about it and come up with ideas. By the way, it would make a very good project for the sustainable development course. 11 Jan 2008 R. Shanthini