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Climate Change and Energy National and Regional Perspective Ken Mitchell, Ph.D. Energy and Climate Change Coordinator U.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia July 23, 2009 Global Climate Change Some Key Messages: Human activities have led to large increases in heat-trapping gases over the past century Global average temperature and sea level have increased, and precipitation patterns have changed The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases Human “fingerprints” also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice Global temperatures are projected to continue to rise over this century; by how much and for how long depends on a number of factors, including the amount of heat-trapping gas emissions and how sensitive the climate is to those emissions US GCRP, 2009 Climate Change and Energy An EPA Priority Reducing greenhouse gases is a top priority for Administrator Jackson Some key actions taken: Endangerment Finding Mandatory Reporting Renewable Fuels Standard Proposed Endangerment Finding Current and projected concentrations of the mix of key greenhouse in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) perfluorocarbons (PFCs) sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) Proposed Endangerment Finding “Cause or contribute finding” The combined emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the threat of climate change Federal Register notice 4/24/09 Comment period closed 6/23/09 Mandatory Reporting of GHGs Required by FY08 omnibus appropriations legislation Federal Register Notice 4/10/09 Comment Period Closed 6/09/09 Residential 5% Com m ercial 6% Electricity Generation 3 4% Agriculture 7% Industry 1 9% Transportation 2 8% http://epa.gov/climatechange/ Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 Covered Chemicals Anthropogenic GHG emissions covered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other fluorinated gases carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O) hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) perfluorocarbons (PFC) sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) hydrofluorinated ethers (HFE) Expressed in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (mtCO2e) Who Reports? Primarily facility, with limited exceptions (e.g., fuel importers, vehicle and engine manufacturers) Sector Reporters Electricity Generation Power plants Transportation Vehicle and Engine Manufacturers Industrial All large industrial emitters, including those in the following industries: Metals Minerals Iron and Steel, Aluminum, Magnesium, Ferroalloy, Zinc, and Lead Cement, Lime, Glass, Silicon Carbide, Pulp and Paper Chemicals HCFC-22, Ammonia, Nitric Acid, Adipic Acid, SF6 from Electrical Equipment, Hydrogen, Petrochemicals, Titanium Dioxide, Soda Ash, Phosphoric Acid, Electronics, Titanium Dioxide Oil and Gas Components of oil and gas systems, Underground coal mining Other Landfills, Wastewater Treatment, Ethanol, Food Processing Agriculture Manure Management Upstream Suppliers* Petroleum Refineries, Gas Processors, Natural Gas Distribution Companies, Coal Mines, Importers/Exporters, Industrial Gases (e.g., HFCs, N2O, PFCs, CO2) *Some upstream suppliers will also be reporting their direct emissions (e.g., refineries) Thresholds, Methods, and Frequency Threshold Capacity-based threshold, where appropriate and feasible; Emissions-based threshold of 25,000 metric tons of CO2e/yr for other sources Methods Direct measurement, where available, and facility-specific calculation for other sources EPA direct reporting system for fuel quantity and quality information Frequency Annually for New Reporters (facilities reporting quarterly for existing mandatory programs continue quarterly reports) First reports submitted to EPA March 31, 2011 for CY2010 Engine manufacturers report for model year 2011 Proposed Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) Proposed revision to current RFS (RFS1) as required by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) Significant increase in renewables to displace petroleum consumption Lifecycle analysis for GHGs www.epa.gov/OMS/RENEWABLEFUELS Volume Changes Over Time 40 Advanced Biofuel: Unspecified Advanced Biofuel: Biomass-Based Diesel 35 Advanced Biofuel: Cellulosic Biofuel Conventional Biofuel 25 20 15 10 5 Year 20 22 20 21 20 20 20 19 20 18 20 17 20 16 20 15 20 14 20 13 20 12 20 11 20 10 0 20 09 Billion Gallons 30 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Thresholds Required GHG reduction thresholds for the various categories of fuels Lifecycle GHG Thresholds Specified in EISA (percent reduction from 2005 baseline) Evaluated over the full lifecycle Compared to the lifecycle emissions of 2005 petroleum baseline fuels Renewable fuela Advanced biofuel 20% *50% Biomass-based diesel 50% Cellulosic biofuel 60% a The 20% criterion generally applies to renewable fuel from new facilities that commenced construction after December 19, 2007. * EPA is proposing to exercise the 10% adjustment allowance provided for in EISA for the advanced biofuels threshold to as low as 40% Preliminary Emissions Impacts Pollutant Change in total U.S. inventory1 in 2022 in comparison to RFS1 mandate NOx 2.5 to 3.0% HC 0.6% PM10 1.0% PM2.5 0.3% CO -3.1 to -5.8% Ethanol 29 to 33% Acetaldehyde 28 to 38% Benzene -1.5 to -3.5% GHG -150 to -160 million tons per year on average (over 30 to 100 years respectively) 1 Includes all upstream and downstream emissions What about Region 4? Some key facts about Region 4…. Home to 20% of the population (with a large EJ component) We generated about 24% of electricity in U.S. (burning coal is a primary fuel source) in 2007 Responsible for about 24% of U.S. CO2 emissions (from power production) in 2007 Energy Information Administration Federal Highways Administration U.S. Census Bureau VMT (millions) We use more fuel and drive more miles than any other Region VMT by region 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1950 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 1960 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 2010 R8 R9 R10 2007 CO2 Emission from Power Generation in R4 States 140,000,000 20% 120,000,000 Tons 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 AL FL GA Source: Energy Information Administration KY MS NC SC TN 2007 Electricity Generation (Electric Power Industry) in R4 States 250,000,000 23% Megawatts 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 AL FL GA Source: Energy Information Administration KY MS NC SC TN Energy Efficiency Reduce energy use in buildings Energy Star Green Buildings Connection to water WaterSense Energy efficient infrastructure Connection to materials management WasteWise Green remediation opportunities Promote more fuel efficient vehicles/fuels, better transit options, and smart planning and growth BioEnergy Southeast could dominate this industry Some activities to promote bioenergy production and use in the SE Southeastern Diesel Collaborative Biodiesel production in communities and technical training for schools Agriculture and other Waste-to-Energy projects Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts Many concerns for the Southeast…. Most coastline in the lower 48 states Large at-risk population Prone to frequent natural disasters Significant forestry, agriculture, infrastructure, and ecosystem resources Adaptation planning underway and transportation will be an important consideration Ocean surface temperature during the peak hurricane season, August through October, in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. Higher sea surface temperatures in this region of the ocean have been associated with more intense hurricanes. As ocean temperatures continue to increase in the future, it is likely that hurricane rainfall and wind speeds will increase in response to human-caused warming. US GCRP, 2009 What about air quality? Potential impact of climate change on: Ozone Particulate matter Toxics Pollen Courtesy of Sustaining the Environment and Resources for Canadians Questions? Ken Mitchell, Ph.D. Energy and Climate Change Coordinator U.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia 404-562-9065 [email protected] www.epa.gov/CLIMATECHANGE www.epa.gov/CLEANENERGY www.epa.gov/OMS/RENEWABLEFUELS