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+ + Climate Policy Outlook + American Clean Energy and Security (ACES) Act + Waxman-Markey + Heather Holsinger Senior Policy Fellow Pew Center on Global Climate Change + + America’s Energy Coast Leadership Forum July 30, 2009 + Pew Center on Global Climate Change + • Founded in May 1998 • Independent, non-profit, non-partisan + • Divided into five major program areas: + – Scientific Studies/Analyses – Domestic and International Strategies – Outreach Activities • Business • States + – Technology Solutions – Communications + + 22 + + + + + + + Pew Business Environmental Leadership Council (BELC) + Presentation Overview + • Overview of Waxman-Markey + + + + + • Climate Policy Outlook + + + Overview of Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454 – The American Clean Energy and Security (ACES) Act of 2009 + + + + + Overview of Waxman-Markey + • Reductions in GHG Emissions • Complementary Policies • Other Measures + + + + + + + + + + + + Reducing GHG Emissions • Coverage: approximately 85% of U.S. emissions covered through capand-trade provisions • Cap: 17% below 2005 levels by 2020; 83% below by 2050 • Threshold: Cover entities >25K tons CO2e; EPA may lower to 10K after 2020 • Offsets: 2 billion tons domestic & int’l • Cost containment: Strategic reserve of 2.5 billion allowances available if allowances prices rise above trigger price, unlimited banking of allowances and limited borrowing • Clean Air Act limitation: GHGs not regulated as criteria pollutants or hazardous air pollutants under CAA • State role: GHG cap-and-trade programs on hold for 5 years; other state programs unaffected • Allowance distribution: Used for consumer protection, industry and worker transition assistance, technology innovation, and adaptation (initially mostly free allocation; shift to mostly auction over time) Waxman-Markey Allowance Distribution + Distribution of Allowances American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454 - Waxman-Markey as Passed by U.S. House of Representatives) + Available Allowances (tCo2e) Supplemental Agriculture and Renewable Energy (Sec.782(u)) Compensation for Early Actors (Sec.782(t)) Climate Change Consumer Dividend (Sec. 782(r)) 6,000,000,000 Deficit Reduction (Sec. 782(q)) International Clean Technology Deployment (Sec. 782(o)) International Adaptation (Sec. 782(n)) State Domestic Wildlife and Natural Resource Adaptation (Sec. 782(m)(1)) Domestic Wildlife and Natural Resource Adaptation (Sec. 782(m)(2)) + Climate Change Health Promotion and Protection (Sec. 782(l)(2)) Domestic Adaptation (Sec. 782(l)(1)) 5,000,000,000 Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Worker Training (Sec.782(k)(2) Worker Assistance and Job Training (Sec. 782(k)) Small Business Refiners (Sec.782(j)(2)) Domestic Fuel Production (Sec. 782(j)(1)) Advanced Automobile Technology (Sec. 782(i)) Advanced Resesarch Project Agency-Energy (Sec.782(h)(2) 4,000,000,000 + Energy Innovation Hubs (Sec. 782(h)(1)) States for Building Retrofits (Sec.782(g)(3) Energy Efficiency in Building Codes (Sec. 782(g)(2)) Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (Sec. 782(g)(1)) Carbon Capture and Sequestration (Sec. 782(f)) Energy-Intensive, Trade-Vulnerable Industries (Sec. 782(e)) Low Income Consumers (Sec. 782 (d)) 3,000,000,000 Home Heating Oil and Propane Consumers (Sec. 782(c)) Natural Gas Consumers (Sec. 782(b)) + Merchant Coal Generators and Long-term Power Contracts [Reflects 14.3% of electricity allocation] Electricity Consumers (Sec. 782(a)(1)) States for Cogeneration at Industrial Parks (Sec.782(a)(3) Prevention of Tropical Deforestation (Sec. 781) 2,000,000,000 Allowances Placed in Strategic Reserve (Sec. 726) + 1,000,000,000 + 0 Year + Complementary Policies – Clean Energy & Coal + • Combined Efficiency and Renewable Electricity Standard + + + + + • Standard starts at 6% of sales in 2012 and rises to 20% in 2020 • Up to one quarter of the requirement can be automatically met with electricity savings. Upon petition by a state’s governor, FERC can allow a state’s utilities to use electricity savings to meet up to two fifths of the standard • Carbon Capture and Sequestration: – National strategy for CCS deployment and regulations for geologic sequestration sites – CCS trust fund to finance first ~5 commercial-scale demonstration projects – Support for early large scale CCS deployment (first 6 GW at coal power plants and industrial facilities) • Performance standards for new coal-fueled power plants + Complementary Policies - Transportation + • Support (allowance value) for automobile R&D • Provides financial assistance to manufacturers to produce electric vehicles and consumers to purchase plug-in hybrid electric vehicles • EPA, states, and metropolitan planning organizations to develop transportation GHG reduction targets and plans + + + + + + Complementary Policies – Energy Efficiency + • Promotes energy efficiency in new and retrofitted buildings + + + + + • • • • Establishes national building energy efficiency codes Establishes a building retrofits program Establishes a program to upgrade inefficient manufactured homes Establishes a model building energy performance labeling program • New efficiency standards for lighting and other appliances, including financial incentives to retailers who sell high volumes of “Best-inClass” appliances • Smart grid and transmission provisions + Other - Competitiveness + • Output-based allowance distribution approach is primary mechanism to deal with competitiveness + + + + • • • • Emission allowances to energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries Sets criteria for which sectors are presumptively eligible, allows EPA to designate more Allowances compensate for direct and indirect carbon costs Distribution begins phasing out in 2026 (pending Presidential review) • International Reserve Allowance program— requiring allowances for imported goods’ embodied GHG emissions – as a backstop. • Triggered in 2020 unless the President finds that a treaty meeting U.S. negotiating objectives is in force, or Congress grants a waiver. + + Other - Adaptation + • Establishes a National Climate Services within NOAA to provide climate-related data and support • States and federal agencies to develop natural resource adaptation plans. • Establishes Natural Resources Climate Change Adaptation Fund in the Treasury – states can apply for funds if have natural resources adaptation plan • Provides 2% of allowance value increasing over time for domestic adaptation (much of that goes to states) + + + + + + + + + + + + USCAP Partnership + USCAP Recommendations - January 2009 • Consensus product of diverse companies and NGOs on climate + legislation framework + • Working to urge the Administration and Congress to take immediate action + • Well-crafted federal legislation can: + + + – Create meaningful action to slow, stop and reverse greenhouse gas emissions – Spur innovations in new technologies – Enhance energy security – Increase investment and provide the foundation for a low-carbon economy – Eliminate the economic cost of uncertainty 15 15 + + + + + + + Policy Outlook + U.S. Congress • 60-40 D Senate majority + • Majority Leader Reid • EPW Chairman Boxer + • Need 60 votes for a bill • Need 67 votes for treaty + • 256-179 D House + majority • Speaker Pelosi + • E&C Chairman Waxman • Need 218 votes for a bill + Recent Debate + + • Waxman-Markey passed House + • + + • • • + • + Energy & Commerce committee on May 21st, passed the full House by vote of 219-212 on June 26th Senate committee action expected in September Full Senate vote possible in 2009 House-Senate Conference possibly 2009 or 2010 President’s signature possibly 2009 or 2010 Stars in alignment rapid progress or overreaching? + + + EPA Action? • Supreme Court in Mass. V. EPA essentially ordered EPA • • + • + • + + to regulate GHGs EPA has a number of options for moving forward Key questions: – How fast will EPA act? – Which parts of the Clean Air Act will it use? EPA has clear authority to do GHG standards; may be able to do cap and trade, but would be constrained Threat of EPA action may drive legislation + + + + + + + A two-tiered climate policy “Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable”* • Avoiding the unmanageable → mitigation – Emissions reduction policies at state, regional, federal, and international levels • Managing the unavoidable → adaptation – Preparedness, resilience, ecosystem management, protecting vulnerable populations *Title of the UN Foundation Scientific Expert Group Report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development 20 20 + For More Information + + www.pewclimate.org + + + + Heather Holsinger [email protected] America’s Energy Coast Leadership Forum III SUMMARY & STATUS – FEDERAL ENERGY & CLIMATE LEGISLATION Climate Assessment Update -Dr. Denise Reed, University of New Orleans -Dr. Robert Twilley, Louisiana State University Denise J. Reed University of New Orleans Robert R. Twilley Louisiana State University CLIMATE CHANGE Storms Waves Sea Level Temperature CO2 conc. Run-off External Marine Influences Human Natural Sub-system Sub-system Coastal System External Terrestrial Influences IPCC 2007 Thanks to Brendan Yuill, University of Current climate varies across the area – especially in terms of precipitation Global increase in temperatures in the future - range associated with variations among models and uncertainty regarding future development Effects of inland changes are felt at the coast through change in runoff Variation across the Gulf Coast and throughout the year Precipitation is more variable globally Precipitation predictions show increase and decrease Gulf Coast Average Dec, Jan, Feb June, July, Aug Annual Precipitation (in) 2000 11.7 11.5 48.2 Nueces Dec, Jan, Feb June, July, Aug Annual 4.4 6.7 26.7 -0.5 13.6 0.8 -15.3 11.3 -3.8 Trinity Dec, Jan, Feb June, July, Aug Annual 11.9 9.2 47.3 0.3 16.5 -3.1 -5.4 13.1 -3.5 Mobile Dec, Jan, Feb June, July, Aug Annual 16.8 13.0 57.2 -2.5 3.9 -0.6 -4.6 11.7 3.0 Location Period % Change (from 2000) 2050 -2.2 9.9 -1.6 2099 -8.3 10.4 -2.1 Runoff (in) Gulf Coast Avg. Nueces River, TX Trinity River, TX Mobile River, AL % Change (from 2000) 2000 2050 2099 - -20 -29 1.0 0 -3 6.4 -27 -37 20.2 -11 -14 River runoff likely decreases in the future due change in precipitation and increased temperatures that increase evapotranspiration SLR Length of Record in/yr yrs Dauphin Island, AL 0.12 32 Grand Isle, LA 0.39 53 Eugene Island, LA 0.38 36 Sabine Pass, TX 0.26 42 Galveston I, TX 0.26 92 Galveston II, TX 0.29 43 Freeport, TX 0.23 46 Rockport, TX 0.18 52 Port Mansfield, TX 0.08 35 Padre Island, TX 0.14 37 Port Isabel, TX 0.13 56 Station Name Relative sea level rise is already a problem based on 20th century data Historical rates Historical with eustatic increased to 0.12 in/yr (3mm/yr) Historical with eustatic increased to 0.20 in/yr (5mm/yr) by 2099 Historical with eustatic increased to 0.43 in/yr (11mm/yr) by 2099 (estimated max. rate from last deglaciation) Summary Regional mean annual temperatures will increase by over 1° C by 2050 and near a 3° C increase by 2099 - increase only varying spatially by approximately 0.1° C. Precipitation will likely become more seasonal - summer months will receive a higher % of the rainfall, winter months will receive less. The effect of climate change on runoff is uncertain, suggestion that the total amount of runoff will be significantly altered. Sea-level rise will vary spatially - rates higher than the global mean due to the active subsidence processes. Range ~8 in to ~5 ft by 2099. Climate change will likely cause an increase in the % of storms that develop into large hurricanes and an increase in overall storm intensity => increase the threat of flooding and storm related damage to coastal communities and infrastructure. America’s Energy Coast Leadership Forum III July 30, 2009 Biloxi, MS America’s Energy Coast Leadership Forum III Climate Stewardship Task Force July 30, 2009 Climate Stewardship Task Force • Gary Serio – Co-chair, Entergy Corp. • Anna Motschenbacher – Co-chair, Pew Center on Global Climate Change • Fiona Hanrahan, Chevron • Karla Raettig, National Wildlife Federation • Jim Mutch, Entergy • Jenny Denney, Pew Center, Make an Impact Task Force Activities 1. Future: Climate Change Best Practices Forum • Purpose – discussion & sharing of state/local policies & programs to address climate change e.g. – energy efficiency, building codes, renewable energy, urban/infrastructure planning, disaster preparedness, etc. • Participants – government policymakers & decisionmakers in AL, MS, LA and TX • Timing – Spring 2010 2. Near Term: “Make an Impact” Program + + + + + + + America’s Energy Coast July 2009 + Presentation overview + • What is Make an Impact? + + + + + • What is the opportunity for America’s Energy Coast? • What are the next steps? + What is Make an Impact? • Environmental footprint reduction program for + individuals/households (employees , communities, citizens) • Focused on personal energy efficiency, environmental + awareness, and individual cost savings • Partnership between Alcoa Foundation and Pew Center on + Global Climate Change. • Adopted by Entergy in 2009, the program launches today + and throughout Entergy communities over the next year • Customizable website and carbon calculator with resources + and tools vetted by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and supported by community outreach + + Overarching Goals of Program + • Build awareness and commitment on the issue + • Empower individuals to take meaningful, individual action and realize dollar savings + + + + • Leverage and amplify existing local energy efficiency tools and programs • Government • Business • Non-profits + What is Make an Impact: Website + Customizable interactive website with tips, tools and resources on how to reduce energy bills and live more sustainably + + + + + + What + + + + + + is Make an Impact: Carbon Calculator Individual ‘carbon footprint’ analysis and personal action plan + + + + + + + What is Make an Impact: Outreach & Workshops Educational workshops and hands-on activities to educate and encourage local action + What benefits can it bring? + • Heightened awareness of environmental issues driving positive behavioral change + + + + + • Real energy savings and cost savings in the local community • ‘Green’ community network that includes business, non profits, municipalities and individuals + Reduced local environmental impact + Make an Impact -Alcoa greenhouse gas reductions (at June 09): – Committed to save = 200,000 lbs of GHGs – Potential to save = 1,500,000 lbs of GHGs + + + + * Potential savings refer to total $ saved if users implemented +all recommendations on their Action Plan + + Quantifiable Cost Benefits Make an Impact - Alcoa financial savings (at June 09): – Committed to save =$200,000 per annum – Potential to save* = $800,000 per annum + + + + * Potential savings refer to total $ saved if users implemented + all recommendations on their Action Plan + What is the opportunity for AEC? • All AEC participating businesses, organizations and governments can + engage + + + + + Website adopted by companies, non-profits, and states for employee, customer, member and citizen use • Community outreach and engagement • State and regionally specific resources and information + What are next steps? • Gauge interest in exploring + Make an Impact program for AEC outreach + • Identify point-of-contact for any member interested in + follow-up + • Schedule future call to learn more and further explore opportunity + + + + + + + + + Gary Serio, Entergy [email protected] 504-576-4585 Jenny Denney, Pew [email protected] 703-516-4146