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Transcript
The “Impact Pathway Approach” – so
called, “ExternE Methodology”
to Estimate Impacts and External Costs.
Application in North Africa
Methodology, Limits, Exemplary Results
Philipp PREISS
IER, Universität Stuttgart
Presentation Outline
Aim of Methodology
Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach –
Part 1: Quantification of Impacts
Impacts Included
Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach –
Part 2: Quantification of Costs
Assessment of Climate Change
Example Results – Uncertainty – Range of Results
Applications of the Results
Summary
Aim of the ExternE methodology:
 helps to take into account all externalities in
a consistent way when making decisions
-
Investment decisions
-
Technology Assessment (subsidies, research
support)
-
Consumer decisions (e.g. by adjusting prices, by
internalisation of external costs)
-
Cost-benefit analyses, esp. for environmental and
health regulation
-
Green accounting
Basic principles
1) Pressures, (e.g. emissions of substances to
environmental media) have to be estimated
2) Assessment of effects/impacts (e.g. health risk),
of the pressures (e.g. emissions of pollutants)
 relation between pressure and impact is in
general not linear and
 impacts depend on time and site of pressure
 “Bottom-up approach” needed for the
complex pathways:
the ‘Impact Pathway Approach’ (IPA)
Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1
Differences
of
Physical
Impacts
Physical Impacts
Pollutant / Noise
Emission
Transport and
Chemical
Transformation
Calculation is
made twice: with
and without
project!
Background Concentration of Prim. PM2.5 [µg/m3]
Additional Emission of
1000 t PPM2.5 in
Egypt
Delta Conc. of PPM2.5 [µg/m3]
Population Distribution
Population*Delta Conc.  Accumulated Exposure
Quantification of Impacts and Costs
relation between pressure and impact
Concentration Response Function (CRF):
Example: Additional Years of Life Lost
= 6.5 · 10-5 · Dconc. PPM2.5 ·Population
Number of Years of Life Lost [YOLL] due to 1000 ton
emission of fine dust PPM2.5 in Egypt
in Egypt = 748
in the Northern Hemisphere = 53
in Western Europe < 0.5
YOLL  Years of Life Lost due to 1000 t PPM2.5
Impacts Included (I)
Impact Cat.
Human
Health
mortality
Human
Health
morbidity
Pollutant / Burden
PM10 : PM2.5, PMco
SO2, O3
Benzene, BaP, 1,3butad., Diesel part.,
radioact.,HM
Noise
Accident risk
PM10, O3, SO2
Effects
Reduction in life expectancy due to short and long time
exposure
Reduction in life expectancy due to short time exposure
Reduction in life expectancy due to long time exposure
PM10, O3
PM10, CO
Benzene, BaP, 1,3butad., Diesel
part.,radioact.
PM10
Restricted activity days
Congestive heart failure
Cancer risk (non-fatal)
O3
Noise
Mercury
Accident risk
Reduction in life expectancy due to long time exposure
Fatality risk from traffic and workplace accidents
Respiratory hospital admissions
Cerebrovascular hospital admissions, cases of chronic
bronchitis, cases of chronic cough in children, cough in
asthmatics, lower respiratory symptoms
Asthma attacks, symptom days
Myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, hypertension,
sleep disturbance
Loss of IQ of children
Risk of injuries from traffic and workplace accidents
Impacts Included (II)
Impact Cat.
Building
Material
Crops
Global
Warming
Pollutant / Burden
Effects
SO2, Acid
Ageing of galvanised steel, limestone, mortar, sanddeposition
stone, paint, rendering, and zinc for utilitarian buildings
Combustion
particles
Soiling of buildings
SO2
Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, sugar
beet
O3
Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, rice,
tobacco, sunflower seed
Acid deposition
Increased need for liming
N, S
Fertilising effects
CO2, CH4, N2O
World-wide effects on mortality, morbidity, coastal
impacts, agriculture, energy demand, and economic
impacts due to temperature change and sea level rise
Amenity losses Noise
Amenity losses due to noise exposure
Ecosystems
Eutrophication, Acidification
Land Use
Change
SO2, NOx, NH3
‘PDF’ of species
Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1
Pollutant/Noise
Emission
Differences of Physical
Impacts
Transport and
Chemical
Transformation
Calculation is
made twice: with
and without
project!
Basic Approach of NEEDS/ExternE
Assessment of impacts is based on the
(measured) preferences of the affected and
well-informed population
Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach –
Part 2: Quantification of Costs
Preferences are expressed, and
effects are transformed into monetary units:
- allows transfer of values,
- units are conceivable,
- direct use of results in CBA and for internalising
via taxes possible.
(…however, e.g. ‘utility points’ would give the
same ranking).
Impact Pathway Approach – Part 2
Pollutant/Noise
Emission
Differences of Physical
Impacts
Transport and
Chemical
Transformation
Calculation is
made twice: with
and without
project!
Monetary
Valuation
Monetary Valuation
Health end-points
Increased mortality risk (infants)
New cases of chronic bronchitis
Increased mortality risk - YOLLacute
Life expectancy reduction - YOLLchronic
Respiratory hospital admissions
Cardiac hospital admissions
Work loss days (WLD)
netto Restricted activity days (netRADs)
Minor restricted activity days (MRAD)
Lower respiratory symptoms
LRS excluding cough
Cough days
Medication use / bronchodilator use
Euro
per case / per YOLL
3,000,000
200,000
60,000
40,000
2,000
2,000
295
130
38
38
38
38
1
Quantification of Costs
Concentration Response Function:
Additional Years of Life Lost
= 6.5 · 10-5 · Dconc. PPM2.5 · Population
Quantified number of additional Years of Life Lost
due to one year operation : 748 YOLL
Monetary value: 40000 Euro2005 per Year of Life Lost
Damage costs per year:
748 YOLL * 40000 Euro per YOLL =
29.2 Million Euro2005
Valuation methods for non-market goods
Revealed Preference
behaviour (shown in the past)
Stated Preference
surveys
Indirect valuation
Direct valuation
assesses costs or efforts that
can be linked to the nonmarket good
• Hedonic Price Method
• Averting Behavior Method
• Travel Cost Method
• Contingent Behavior Method
• Past behaviour of public
decision makers
• Contingent Valuation
Method (CVM)
• Attribute Based Choice
Modeling (ABCM)
• Participatory approaches
• Surveys for preferences of
public decision makers
Assessment of Climate Change
I. Marginal Damage Costs
Includes the following categories:
• agriculture
• forestry
• sea level rise
• cardiovascular and respiratory disorders related to cold and heat stress
• malaria
• dengue fever
• schistosomiasis
• diarrhoea
• energy consumption
• water resources and
• unmanaged ecosystems
• Time horizon till 2300
Assessment of Climate Change
I. Marginal Damage Costs
"Average, 1% trimmed“, "1% PRTP“ , “World Average Equity Weighting”
Euro per ton CO2
25
Damage costs
CO2 €2005
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
Year of emission
2045
Assessment of Climate Change
II. Marginal Avoidance Costs
"500 ppm CO2 “, “technological progress“ , “certificates-emission dealing”
Euro per ton CO2
60
External costs
CO2 - €2005
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
Year of emission
2045
Some exemplary results of applying the
ExternE tools  EcoSenseWeb
The results of the ExternE research are the functions and tools
that can be applied to answer individual questions!
Results of applying the tools depend on scenario, site, time and
technology!
Possibly important effects that are not (yet) included:
• Visual intrusion
• Biodiversity loss (local, however included in
Environmental Impact Study)
• Risk of nuclear proliferation and terrorism
• Risk aversion resp. treatment of Damocles risks
Quantified External Costs [Euro-Cent / kWh] of a
Coal Fired Power Station (steam turbine)
3
NMVOC
PM10
NOx
2
SO2
CO2eq
1
um
Be
lg
i
an
ce
Fr
an
y
G
er
m
la
nd
Po
UK
Ita
ly
ai
n
0
Sp
[Euro-Cent / kWh]
4
External Costs of Different Technologies [Euro-Cent / kWh]
External costs [Euro-Cent / kWh]
19 Euro/t CO2, YOLLchronic = 40000 Euro
6
5
Sites in Germany;
2010 technologies!
4
3
2
1
0
WEC
Offshore
Hydro
Health impacts
PWR,
reproc
PV sc-Si
Crops
Natural
gas-CC
ORCHKW
Material
PAFC
Lignite,
IGCC
Coal,
IGCC
Coal PFB
Climate change
External Costs [Euro-Cent / kWh]
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
WEC
Offshore
Hydro
Health
impacts
PWR,
reproc
PV sc-Si Natural
gas-CC
Crops
ORCHKW
Material
PAFC
Lignite,
IGCC
Coal,
IGCC
Coal PFB
Climate change
External Costs [Euro-Cent / kWh]
External Costs of Power Stations [Euro-Cent / kWh]
Assuming 50 Euro/t CO2
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
WEC
Offshore
Hydro
Health impacts
PWR,
reproc
PV sc-Si
Crops
Natural
gas-CC
ORCHKW
Material
PAFC
Lignite,
IGCC
Coal,
IGCC
Coal PFB
Climate change
Quantification of Externalities of Heat Supply
CB=condensing boiler, MFH=multi family house, OFM=one family house
External Costs [Euro / GJ]
4
3
2
1
0
Gas-CB
OFH
Solar-Gas-CB
OFH
Health
Gas-CB
MFH
others
Fuel oil-LT
MFH
GHG
Wood chips
MFH
External Costs [Euro / ton] of Emission
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
EU27
Netherlands
NH3
NOX
PPMco
PPM25
SO2
Norway
[Euro per ton]
 Results Europe
 Results North Africa
Applications of the IPA/ExternE Results
European Union:
Energy: justification for promoting and subsidizing
renewable energy; recommended cap on subsidies for
renewables
Transport: cost-benefit analysis mandatory for all major
infrastructure projects; planned to levy tolls according to
infrastructure and external costs
Environmental Protection: Cost-benefit analysis for all
recently implemented directives for Air Pollution Control:
e.g. Non-Hazardeous Waste Incineration Directive, Large Combustion
Plant Directive, National Emissions Ceilings Directive, Daughter
Directives to Air Quality Directive: ozone, CO and benzene
UN: cost-benefit analysis for the UN/ECE multi-pollutant
multi-effect protocol
Summary
• The ExternE methodology estimates effects of
technologies for energy conversion and assesses
them based on preferences of the effected
population for a large number of impact pathways.
• The methodology is already widely used for
decision aid in the fields of energy conversion,
transport and environmental protection.
• Gaps and uncertainties exist, however will be more
and more reduced due to ongoing research (e.g. on
dispersion models for Africa, pathways involving
toxic substances, heavy metals, biodiversity, water
and soil contamination…)
• More information ExternE: www.ExternE.info
• Tool EcoSenseWeb:
www.EcoSenseWeb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de