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Western Water Supply
Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD
Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise
Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC
Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC
Don Laurine, NWRFC
Chad Kahler, WFO Tucson
 Western Water Supply
 History
 Project overview
 Westwide map
 Forecast evolution
 Verification
 Ensemble services
 Future enhancements
 Climate variability and change
 Short range ensembles services
Western Water Supply Forecasts
 Forecasts for spring runoff
amounts from snow melt
dominated basins in western
 Routinely produced at 6 RFCs
and coordinated with other
agencies (NRCS and
California DWR)
 NWS forecast program began
in 1940s
 Primary forecast tools:
 Ensemble Streamflow
 Multivariate Linear
Legacy Water Supply Forecast
Product (Credit: NRCS / NOAA)
Project in a Nutshell
 A “one stop shop” for NWS water information at the seasonal timescale
 Consistent presentation of products between RFCs
 Harness collective innovation from multiple offices
 Existing Water Supply forecast users
 Strong support from USBR and state water resources agencies for
 Groups with cross basin interests (e.g. media, power companies)
 NWS internal users
Major Components:
 Map: Single map for all western WS forecasts from 6 RFCs
 Forecast evolution: Plotting capability to show evolution of current year
forecast and observed river flow
 Verification: Forecast evaluation from past forecasts and forecast tools
 Ensemble services: Interaction capability with ensemble streamflow
Project in a Nutshell (con’t)
 Milestones (past):
 April 2005: Working group formed, planning meeting held
 January 2006: Initial website launched
 September 2006: Included AB, WG, and MB RFCs in development
 January 2007: Common database developed
 March 2007: Launched outreach effort and included SHs
 Milestones (future):
 August 2007: Launch verification 1.0 capabilities
 September 2007: Move software to NWRFC web farm
 October 2007: Launch forecast evolution 2.0
 October 2007: Launch ensemble services 1.0
 January 2008: Integrate WGRFC data
 2008?: Integrate climate change capabilities
“One Stop Shop” for NWS water
supply forecasts
Flexible and consistent map
presence across western USA
Zoomable to basin scale
Mouse over capability for forecast
Forecast Evolution
Evolution of current year forecast
and observed streamflow
Options to include:
 Normal streamflow volume
 Forecast window
 Forecast accumulation
 Accumulated Observed, etc…
Originally developed at NWRFC
Version 2.0 contract development
work proceeding
 Add ESP forecasts
 Add interactive features
Forecast Verification
 Goal: Provide users of all types with forecast verification information
 Easy to understand
 Meaningful
 Accessible from forecasts
 Dynamically generated plots from database
Data Visualization
 MAE, RMSE, etc
 Conditional on
Lead time, year
 Skill relative to
Traditional (NWS) verification including FAR
and POD
 Conditional
 Category definitions tied to climatology
values (e.g. mean flow, terciles, etc.) or user
Plot credit: Chad Kahler
Ensemble Services
 Goals:
 Intuitive user interface for current ensemble forecast
 Access to archived streamflow data for perspective
 Dynamic, flexible plots
 Access to underlying data and database
 Climate change scenarios
Climate Change
 Latest IPCC report confirms
“temperatures averaged over
all habitable continents … will
very likely rise at greater than
the global average rate in the
next 50 years and by an
amount substantially in excess
of natural variability.” (IPCC
WR1, 2007)
Source: IPCC, 2007
Trends in 1 Apr SWE over the 1960–2002 (left) and 1950-1997
(right) periods of record directly from snow course observations
from Mote (2006) and Mote et al. (2005) respectively.
Extend NWS Product Suite?
Climate Change
based run off
 Current product suite covers hours to seasons;
 Should we consider climate change scenarios and build
multi-year products for run-off, temperature, precipitation?
 User requirements from power companies, USBR, etc for
climate change scenarios
Water Supply with
Climate Change
 Many in water community are asking for it
 Idea: Provide scenario based water supply outlooks in the context of
historical data and current season forecasts
 Include uncertainty
 Temperature, precipitation, and/or lead time based scenarios
 Ultimately link scenarios to atmospheric carbon based scenarios
 Leverage historical simulation capabilities in ESP
Leveraging ESP for long range scenarios
 Multiple “historical simulation” runs:
 Use historical basin temperature and precipitation time series
 Build ensemble by repeatedly shifting year order by one
 Incorporate scenarios through additive (temperature) or
multiplicative (precipitation) year-wise adjustments
Forecast Point: Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
Current Forecast
Climate Change
O Normal Runoff
O Ensemble Streamflow
Prediction O Ensemble
members by forcing
O Year (slider bar 20102050)
O Accumulate over
O Temperature (slider
bar -5 F - +5 F)
O Plot Type (box and
whisker, bar, lines, etc.)
O Carbon Scenario
O Data
O Model Normal
O Historical Year(s)
O Ensemble members
O Plot interval (set axes
 Western Water Supply
 History
 Current capabilities
 Coming enhancements
 Verification
 Water Supply ensemble services
 Climate Change
Thank You
[email protected]