Rodrigo Delgado Urzúa Operative HPC services and infrastructure Modeling and development (R&D) office Dirección Meteorológica de Chile – www.meteochile.cl RISC/UChile Workshop, 29 - 30 march 2012 Introduction: what we do, what we don’t, who we depend from • The Chilean Weather Service (Dirección Meteorológica de Chile, DMC) Current numerical modeling work at the DMC Projected computing demands and on-going projects Provide forecasts, warnings, weather and climate information for aviation purposes and other activities; perform studies and research in all its applications; manage and preserve all national weather information; with the aim to mitigate damage from weather events, helping to protect people, property and contribute to the socio-economic development of the country, in a framework of efficiency, effectiveness and according to national and international quality standards. Director Forecasts subdept. National Analysis Center Aeronautics meteorology Climatology subdept. Instrumentation Climatology Applied meteorology Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) was born at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton in 1940’s – first electronic computer Since then, NWP has been one of the heaviest users of supercomputers. Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer Take the equations of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics that describe atmospheric processes. Convert them to a form where they can be programmed into a large computer. Solve them so that this software representation of the atmosphere evolves within the computer. This is called a “model” of the atmosphere Numerical modeling Forecast process Other tools 2001 2004 2008 2011 • First operational mesoscale simulation performed in Chile. •A new cluster is put into service, leading to an increase in resolution (4 km). Such cluster is composed of dual Xeon nodes with Dolphin interconnect • Operational forecasting of ozone, using the same computing infrastructure acquired in 2004. • Rental of a HPC Cluster solution • Chile covered with simulations up to 12 km of horizontal resolution. Weather forecast Climatic forecasts Air quality / Chemiical weather forecast MM5 PRECIS Polyphemus DBCRAS CMM5 CCATTBRAMS WRF CWRF Cassmassi (PMCA) ETA RAMS WRF-Chem Iowa North region Central region South region Austral (Southern) region North zone South zone Central zone Austral (Southern) zone Santiago Humidity vertical profiles provided by MODIS DBCRAS Data assimilation on site Punta Arenas Ozone concentrations Air quality forecast Dynamic seasonal forecast Public sector partnerships National Agriculture Institute (INIA) National Geology and Mining Service (SERNAGEOMIN) Agriculture Ministry […] Research partnerships Universidad de Chile, Pontificia Universidad Católica, Universidad de Valparaíso, […] Centro de Estudios Científicos INPE/CPTEC (BR), CNEA (AR) Private funded initiatives Endesa Eco (Renewable energy production) Several mining industry contracts (past and present) Insurance companies 132 computing cores (Xeon Westmere) + 24 support cores Infiniband QDR Nvidia Tesla for R+D 30 TB storage over IB Puelche 576 GB RAM Atmosphere. Dynamical system highly sensitive to initial conditions. The errors are propagated and amplified rapidly. There will never exist perfect initial condition for initialization of an atmospheric numerical model, ergo we do not know how accurate is the final solution of this (deterministic model). If we run multiple models with perturbed initial conditions, trying to capture the uncertainty of the initial state, we will have multiple final possible solutions. Using statistics on these multiple outputs can have an idea about the uncertainty of the solution. Ensemble forecasting Puelche 20 members + control using dynamic downscaling Atmospheric modeling systems: 1.2 TB per day, 24x7 operation. Acquisition systems of satellite data: 300 GB per day, saved about 30 GB per day. Data acquisition systems on the ground (stations): 1 for variable data every ~5 minutes, 100+ stations. Legal obligation to store everything. Output analysis Dynamic model Forecast BC+IC 3DVAR 4DVAR Verification Obs.