Download Lake Baikal as possible sentinel of the Climate Change

Lake Baikal as possible sentinel of the Climate Change
SILOW Eugene
Scientific research institute of Biology, Irkutsk State University, POBox 24, Irkutsk-3, 664003, Russia
[email protected]
Abstract: Now it is relatively well known – what
changes must have place in the lakes if the Global
Change is real. There must be increase of surface
temperature, more expressed and longer direct
stratification, shorter period of ice cover and other
hydrological changes. Among biological changes there
must be decrease of share of large cell alga, increase of
small cell phytoplankton, changes in zooplankton
community etc. These changes now are observed in
many lakes around the world.
At the same time we can observe directly opposite
changes of parameters, causing doubts in paradigm shift
in limnology.
The lakes are supposed to be the sentinels of the
Climate Change. They have many advances in
comparison with other indicators. Ecological processes
in lakes are more closely related with temperature, even
the structure of water body, the seasonal changes, the
freezing of surface etc. depend on temperature.
The lake Baikal is the largest, deepest, one of the
oldest lakes of Earth. Its systems must be very inert, as
there are enormous efforts necessary to cause shifts in
the lake Baikal ecosystem. Nevertheless we observe the
changes in air temperature, changes of the temperature of
the surface and deep layers of water, changes of the
period of ice cover. Simultaneously we observe some
biological changes – decrease of share of large spring
alga, increase of biomass of summer phytoplankton,
changes in zooplankton structure, appearance of invasive
species. Are this changes (including climate) connected
with Global Change, or with local disturbances (e.g.
creation of system of enormously large reservoirs near
Baikal), or with some extra long-term natural cycles –
this is the problem to be solved.
Keywords: Lake Baikal, Plankton, Climate Change,
Temperature, Stratification
1. Global Change and Lakes
Global average land temperature has increased by
0.7 – 0.8 °C and ocean temperature by 0.5 °C since 1880,
the decade of 1998-2007 is the warmest on record.
According to the most recent data the global temperature
trend is 0.12 °C·decade-1 for surface [Nodvin, 2009].
Let us observe the possible shifts in lakes ecosystem
which can follow the Global warming from the positions
of general limnology [Hutchinson, 1957, 1967; Kalbe,
1997; Wetzel, 2001; Kalff, 2002; Schwoerbel,
Brendelberger, 2005; Lampert, Sommer, 2007]. The
increase of air temperature must cause the increase of the
surface lake temperature and, consequently, to make
temperature stratification more strong. The temperature
of epilimnion and its volume (depth of thermocline) will
increase. Changes in hydrophysics will cause shifts in the
lake chemistry, as follows – increase of nutrient
(particularly phosphorus and nitrogen) concentrations,
decrease of oxygen content, increase of DOM
concentration. Consequently, the changes in biotic
components must be observed – increase of
phytoplankton biomass and production, the growth of the
small cell phytoplankton share, changes in zooplankton
composition and disturbances at higher trophic levels
(predatory zooplankton, planktivorous fishes etc.).
Actually all these phenomena occur in different
lakes, the excellent reviews are given by [Livingstone,
2008, Nöges et al., 2008]. The increase of temperatures
(both surface and deep water), thermocline depth,
nutrients and DOM concentrations, often decrease of
oxygen, phytoplankton blooms, zooplankton structural
changes, trophic balance deviations are observed
throughout the world.
2. Paradigm Shift in Limnoecology
These phenomena produced the paradigm shift in
limnoecology [Livingstone, 2008; Gerten, 2008].
Authors and protagonists of this doctrine postulate that
earlier limnology was based on two basic assumptions.
The first (tacit assumption of individuality) is though the
physical processes in all lakes are principally the same,
the differences of their geographical positions, external
(particularly climatic) influences, different morphometry
and properties of watershed make every lake unique. The
second (tacit assumption of stationarity) is despite high
temporal variability of the lake parameters they are
fluctuating within some limits, also individual for every
lake.
New paradigm proclaims invalidating of both
assumptions and confirms that lakes are subjected to
large-scale climatic and human-induced pollution forcing,
just modulated by local external conditions. So, two old
assumptions are replaced with two new ones: the concept
of spatial coherence and the concept of temporal
non-stationarity.
Here it is necessary to stress that many lakes in the
world now behave in the way often contrary to predicted
by the “Global Warming & Lakes” scenario. New
paradigm godfather himself writes that physical
parameters change in good accordance with this theory,
but the more complex and vital is the parameter; the less
coherent and unidirectional is its dynamics [Livingstone,
2008].
There are many reports of changes of lake
parameters contrary to predictions. The Lake Ladoga, for
example, ice observations since 1943 has shown an
earlier freeze-up (14 days) and does not demonstrate any
trend for the timing of break-up [Karetnikov, Naumenko,
2008]. The decrease of epilimnion volume, connected
with the decrease of thermocline depth, is observed in
Lake Tahoe [Coats et al., 2006]. In deep lakes the
decrease of silicates and phosphates concentration before
phytoplankton blooms is observed [Goldman et al., 1989;,
Salmaso, 2005]. The decrease of available phosphorus
and, consequently, of phytoplankton biomass and
production is observed in Alp and Swedish lakes [Parker
et al., 2008; Weyhenmeyer, 2008]. In three Australian
lakes the temperature increase negatively affects
phosphorus (both total and phosphate) and nitrogen (also
both total and nitrate) and does not correlate with
chlorophyll
content,
reflecting
phytoplankton
development [Tibby, Tiller, 2007]. Decrease of nutrients
content in epilimnion and, consequently, the depression
of phytoplankton development is observed in the Lake
Tanganyika, Africa [O’Reily et al., 2003; Verburg et al.,
2003;, Stenuite et al., 2007].
Here it is possible to add that not only unidirectional
temperature rise, but also cyclic phenomena, such as
North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation,
sufficiently affect the precipitation amount, air
temperature, timing of freeze-up and break-up and the
dates of spring phytoplankton blooms both in Europe and
Asia [Livingstone, 1999; Todd, Mackay, 2003; George et
al., 2007; Gerten, 2008]. In the North America ice
break-up date as well as total phosphorus content
strongly develop on El Nino South Oscillation [Nicholls,
1998; Kalff, 2002], Pacific Oscillation [Mantua et al.,
1997; McGowan et al., 1998], and their interaction
[McGabe, Dettinger, 1999].
It is necessary to remind that Earth climate is the
result of extremely complex interaction of atmosphere,
hydrosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere and such
external for them forces as planet rotation velocity, heat
flow from the magma, solar activity and many others.
There have been two sustained periods of warming (1910
– 1945 and 1975 – 2010 [author’s suggestion]), but there
were also two periods of cooling (1880 – 1909 and 1946
– 1974) [Nodvin, 2009], so it is possible the process we
observe is not the unidirectional temperature shift, but
just a part of some long-term oscillatory process.
It is clearly seen that lakes ecosystem dynamics
changes are not coherent or unidirectional. The same
external influences can cause quite opposite answers.
The existence of “old paradigm” is doubtful itself, as the
most researchers always observed lake ecosystem
dynamics as result of interaction of several processes –
seasonal changes, interannual long-term cyclic
fluctuations, and directional changes connected both with
internal ecosystem development as well as with external
influences.
3. Lake Baikal as Climate Change Sentinel
Now lakes are supposed to be good sentinels of
climate change [Williamson et al., 2009]. They have
many advances in comparison with other indicators.
Ecological processes in lakes are more closely related
with temperature, even the structure of water body, the
seasonal changes, the freeze-up timing, phytoplankton
bloom etc. depend on temperature [Livingstone, 2008,
Weyhenmeyer, 2008]. They reflect the state of their
catchment area, serving as magnifying glass to detect the
changes. The changes in small lakes are demonstrated to
mimic eutrophication effect, while the large lakes are
shown to be more inertial systems [Nöges et al., 2008].
The ecosystems of the latter are similar to oceanic ones,
so the changes in large lake ecosystem can be used to
predict the changes in the ocean.
Lake Baikal is the oldest (25 mln years old), deepest
(more than 1600 m) and the largest by volume
(23,000 km3), equal to the total volume of Laurentian
Great Lakes. It is characterized by low mineralization
(96 μg l-1), oligotrophy, high oxygen content even at
maximum depth and high degree of its flora and fauna
endemism [Kozhov, 1963, Kozhova, Izmestyeva, 1998].
Its plankton community characteristic feature is relative
simplicity: about 20 species of dominant alga (mainly
endemic diatom under ice-cover and smaller
non-endemic alga in summer), one super-dominant
herbivorous zooplankton species (Epischura baicalensis),
accompanied by Cyclops kolensis and several rotifers,
one predatory zooplankton species (Macrohectopus
branickii), two planktivorous fishes of the endemic
family Comephoridae (95 % of total fish biomass), and
seal. Nevertheless, this structure demonstrates rather
complex behaviour with two peaks of plankton
development (under ice and in summer) during the year
and great interannual fluctuations of both phyto- and
zooplankton development. This dynamics is supposed to
be the product of interaction of annual and interannual
cycles and long-term internal succession and
evolutionary dynamics as well as external influences.
Of course, the detection of changes in such
ecosystem, coherent with predicted by “Global Warming
& Lakes” model will point to reality of Global Change
and its enormously significant degree, as to cause
changes in shallow lake and in the Lake Baikal are quite
different things.
There were several researches, devoted to the
influence of global warming on some parameters of the
lake Baikal ecosystem state, fulfilled, mainly for
ice-cover [Livingstone, 1999; Todd, Mackay, 2003;
Kouraev et al., 2007], hydrochemistry [Yoshioka et al.,
2002], and phytoplankton [Bradbury et al., 1994;
Mackay et al., 1998, 2006; Bangs et al., 2000; Fietz et al.,
2005, 2007; Straskrabova et al., 2005; Mackay, 2007].
The necessity of complex analysis of long-term data on
limnological and biological parameters as recommended
on the basis of world wide experience [Gersten, 2008] is
obvious. Our international team just started such the real
complex studies of the reaction of the lake ecosystem as
whole to the changes of climate forming factors. The first
results have revealed the increase of water temperature at
different depths, followed by remarkable increase of the
summer plankton biomass, structural changes in
zooplankton community [Hampton et al., 2008; Moore et
al., 2009]. Also we observe some other changes –
decrease of share of large spring alga, appearance of
invasive species. Are all this changes (including climate)
connected with Global Change, or with local
disturbances (e.g. creation of system of enormously large
reservoirs near Baikal), or with some extra long-term
natural cycles – this is the problem to be solved. To find
the answers to these questions complex interdisciplinary
and international research must be continued.
[11] D. Gerten, Climatic change, aquatic science, multiple
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Acknowledgment
Author is pleased to acknowledge the Institute of
Global Climate and Ecology of Federal Service on
Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring and
of Russian Academy of Sciences for the support of this
research with contract № 44-1-2008 and Analytical
Institutional Program “The Development of the Research
Potential of Higher School (2009–2011)”, supported this
research with contract № 2.1.1/1359, and the Federal
Targeted Programme “Scientific and Pedagogical Staff
for Innovative Russia” for 2009 – 2013, supported this
research with contract № 02.740.11.0018.
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