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AN ILLUSTRATED GUIDE TO A HOW TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE CAN DELIVER BETTER LIVING STANDARDS AND SHARED PROSPERITY ABOUT IPPR INTRODUCTION IPPR, the Institute for Public Policy Research, is the UK’s leading progressive thinktank. It has been known for years that climate change is happening and is man-made. The latest scientific evidence reiterates these facts, and there is growing concern that the world is heading for a catastrophic temperature rise of 4°C. We are an independent charitable organisation with more than 40 staff members, paid interns and visiting fellows. Our main office is in London, with IPPR North, IPPR’s dedicated thinktank for the North of England, operating out of offices in Newcastle and Manchester. The purpose of our work is to conduct and publish the results of research into and promote public education in the economic, social and political sciences, and in science and technology, including the effect of moral, social, political and scientific factors on public policy and on the living standards of all sections of the community. Registered charity no. 800065 Sceptics claim that there is little point in Britain acting alone to tackle climate change while other countries – notably the US and China – continue to burn fossil fuels. While this may be a compelling argument, both President Obama and President Xi are now taking climate change seriously. Since 2010 the scientific and economic case for urgent action on climate change has been strengthened, but this report shows that it can help address three of the greatest challenges facing our country. • • • CONTACT US IPPR 4th Floor, 14 Buckingham Street London, WC2N 6DF IPPR North 3rd Floor, 20 Collingwood Street Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE1 1JF T: +44 (0)20 7470 6100 E: [email protected] Level 5, Manchester Town Hall Extension, Lloyd Street, Manchester, M60 2LA www.ippr.org T: +44 (0)191 233 9050 E: [email protected] Twitter: twitter.com/IPPR YouTube: youtube.com/IPPRweb www.ippr.org/north Twitter: twitter.com/IPPRNorth YouTube: youtube.com/IPPRweb The consumer challenge: energy and transport costs have spiralled and trust in markets has declined, while living standards have stagnated. The capacity challenge: there has been a lack of investment in muchneeded new infrastructure, and not enough emphasis has been placed on managing existing usage of energy and transport. The regional challenge: while there has been economic recovery at the national level, there has been varied performance in terms of decent jobs and growth in our regions. Getting our domestic policy on climate change right is vital if we are to meet the international challenge. The European Union is losing its leadership position on climate change, and needs fresh impetus. This report sets out further detail on each of these challenges and offers 17 ideas for how they can be addressed. These ideas centre on the need for: • an Obama-style audit of the risks that climate change poses to our security and way of life here in the UK • a shift in focus away from large-scale generation and towards energy efficiency, ‘smart’ demand-management tools, and smaller generation technologies so that we can realise their potential to cut bills, reduce carbon and create jobs • new sources of finance for low carbon infrastructure, particularly from communities and individuals • greater certainty for all our low carbon sectors so that businesses have a solid framework in which to grow and create decent jobs in every region. This short, graphic report should be read in conjunction with IPPR’s new fulllength report, A brighter future: How tackling climate change can deliver better living standards and shared prosperity, available at ippr.org. 1 THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE Climate change is happening and is man-made. Global greenhouse gas pollution grew nearly twice as quickly in the past decade as it did in the previous 30 years. The effects of climate change are becoming both more apparent and more devastating – as the floods in the UK in winter 2013/14 demonstrated, its consequences will affect us all. “All the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change.” Dame Julia Slingo, Met Office chief scientist, February 2014 Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen dramatically since the industrial revolution. 2,000 1,800 Carbon dioxide (CO2) 350 1,600 Nitrous oxide (N20) 1,400 Methane (CH4) 1,200 300 1,000 CH4 (ppb) 800 250 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 The Somerset levels, February 2014 600 The world must do more if it is to avoid the worst climate change risks and prevent global temperatures from rising by more than 2°C – current policies are not enough. Source: IPCC Data from a range of sources shows that global warming is taking place – land and ocean temperatures are rising. Current pledges (upper & lower projections) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) Temperature anomaly (˚C) 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 1980 1990 Source: ‘Global temperature evolution 1979–2010’, G Foster and S Rahmstorf (2012) 2 2000 2010 Global GHG emissions in GtCO2eq. CO2 (ppm), N2O (ppb) 400 100 80 International pledges Illustrative pathway likely to hold warming below 2°C Historic emissions 60 40 20 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: climateactiontracker.org 3 5 SEVEN THINGS THAT HAVE CHANGED SINCE 2010 For example, the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy fell by between 2010 and 2013. Since the last general election, several factors affecting decision-making on the climate challenge have changed. 1 Over 800 weather-related disasters worldwide in 2012 caused a record $130 billion of losses. 15% $0 Q3 2009 Q1 Q3 2010 Q1 Q3 2011 Source: DECC Q1 Q3 2012 Q1 Q3 2013 70% 60% 6 The US and China have finally 50% 40% 30% 20% “ CLIMATE CHANGE IS NO LONGER A DISTANT THREAT, BUT HAS MOVED FIRMLY INTO THE PRESENT 10% 0% Concerned Not concerned March 2014 March 2013 June 2012 2014 $20 2013 20% 2012 $40 80% ” 2011 25% PUBLIC CONCERN ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE IS RISING PRESIDENT OBAMA, JUNE 2014 2010 $60 2009 $80 30% 2008 35% 2007 $100 2006 40% 2005 $120 2004 $140 45% 2003 $160 50% 2002 55% 10% Q1 4 ‘new normal’, above $100 per barrel 7 54% begun to take climate change and green technology seriously. 3 The price of crude oil has settled at a 2001 The UK’s reliance on fossil fuel imports has increased dramatically. 2000 2 The costs of renewable technologies are coming down rapidly. Source: DECC Source: US Energy Information Administration “LEAVE IT IN THE GROUND” 20% (565 GtCO2 ) 80% Only 20% of the 6˚C fossil fuel reserves owned by the top 100 listed coal and 4˚C top 100 listed oil and gas companies can be burned unabated if 2˚C we are to keep global warming within 2°C by 2050. Catastrophic climate change Intolerable risks (where we’re heading) Agreed global limit Photo: Christopher Dilts for Obama for America Photo: Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo “ IT IS NOT AT OTHERS’ DEMAND BUT OUR OWN WILL. WE HAVE ALREADY TAKEN MANY MEASURES AND WILL DO MORE IN THE FUTURE PRESIDENT XI JINPING, FEBRUARY 2014 ” OUR IDEAS The next government should undertake an Obama-style audit of the risks that climate change poses to the UK’s security and way of life, including to businesses, infrastructure, homes, livelihoods, health and heritage. Source: carbontracker.org (2,795 GtCO2 ) 4 5 THE CONSUMER CHALLENGE The government’s ‘Green Deal’ energy efficiency scheme is not working. The government can raise living standards, tackle fuel poverty and reduce emissions by reforming energy and transport markets and increasing energy efficiency. The average dual-fuel bill has shot up in recent years. Trust in both energy and transport companies is low: 32% ‘JUST OF BRITONS TRUST ENERGY COMPANIES’ The year 1 projection was 130,000, but only 3,234 households were in the process of taking out a loan or had done so by June 2014. Source: DECC The government’s key fuel poverty measure, the Energy Company Obligation (ECO), is not helping fuel-poor homes. Only 47% of fuel-poor households are covered by ECO... AND % budget going to fuel-poor households 45% ‘ONLY OF RAIL PASSENGERS ARE SATISFIED THAT THE PRICE OF THEIR TICKETS GIVES THEM VALUE FOR MONEY’ £875 £1,346 Source: Edelman, Passenger Focus % budget going to non-fuel-poor households 80% ...and only 20% of the total budget for ECO is going to fuel-poor households. The Green Deal currently makes no difference to people’s bills – it’s no surprise that so few people have signed up. IPPR recommends a ‘Help to Heat’ scheme which would ensure that energy-saving measures deliver immediate individual bill savings. 2006 2014/15 Source: Ofgem Gas and electricity switching rates have been declining for years, which indicates that competition in the energy market is failing. 700,000 600,000 Electricity transfers 500,000 Gas transfers £1,400 £1,200 £1,000 £800 400,000 £600 300,000 £400 200,000 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 £0 2009 0 2008 £200 2007 100,000 Source: Department for Transport 6 20% £1,400 £1,400 £1,264 Total bill before Green Deal Total bill after Green Deal Total bill with a 0% Green Deal loan For more details, see IPPR’s 2013 report Help to heat: A solution to the affordability crisis in energy Electricity Transfers Gas Transfers 7 Living standards have also been affected by rising transport costs, and there are concerns about the performance of some markets. BUS AND RAIL COSTS ARE RISING Fare increases in real terms, 2007–13 (2007=100) 115 110 105 Rail fares 100 Bus & coach fares 95 90 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Department for Transport The liberalisation of bus services outside London has failed, while Transport for London has increased bus use and gotten people out of their cars. BUS PASSENGER JOURNEYS (1,000s, 1985/86–2013/14) 5,000 London 4,000 OUR IDEAS A radical overhaul of the government’s energy efficiency programme is vital to bringing down bills. A dramatic raising of its ambitions should be centred on a ‘Help to Heat’ scheme, with responsibility for better-targeted delivery devolved to local areas to help reduce consumers’ bills. 120 2007 THE SOLUTIONS Great Britain outside London The Competition and Markets Authority’s inquiry into the energy markets should investigate Ofgem’s ability to regulate a more diverse market facing rapid innovation. Cities and regions should be given powers similar to those of Transport for London, in order to deliver better value for money and encourage more people to switch from cars to public transport. These new regional transport bodies should be encouraged to find efficiencies in existing transport budgets which can be passed onto consumers through lower prices and cleaner, better services. 3,000 2,000 1,000 19 85 /8 19 6 87 /8 19 8 89 /9 19 0 91 /9 19 2 93 /9 19 4 95 /9 19 6 97 /9 19 8 99 /0 20 0 01 /0 20 2 03 /0 20 4 04 /0 20 5 06 /0 20 7 08 /0 20 9 10 /1 20 1 12 /1 3 0 Source: Department for Transport. Dashed blue line denotes change in estimation technology outside London; two sets of data are shown for 2004/05. 8 9 THE CAPACITY CHALLENGE Europe’s utility companies – the main source of investment – have lost half their share value in recent years. The government can address capacity constraints in energy and transport by creating smarter and more decentralised systems and encouraging new sources of investment. Over 71% for rail, clean electricity generation (excluding gas), and other low-carbon projects The Treasury’s national infrastructure pipeline is primarily for low-carbon projects “[Changes in energy markets are] causing the rationale of the prevailing utility business model to come under severe pressure and potentially, ultimately, crumble. Citibank 2008 ” 16% for carbon-neutral infrastructure 13% for high-carbon infrastructure, including gas, roads and airports. But there is a ‘green finance gap’ Source: Green Alliance Only £8–10 billion out of the £20 billion needed annually is being delivered. 2013 UK UK vs Germany on generation ownership In 2012, 86% of all UK electricitygenerating capacity was owned by just 10 companies, including several foreign government-owned utility firms. Indeed, these foreign state-backed companies own 50% of our offshore wind capacity and 68% of our nuclear capacity. 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Local authorities, communities and individuals are wellplaced to take a stake in the UK’s generation system and ensure that the benefits from subsidies flow to them. Offshore wind Private sector By contrast, nearly half of renewable capacity in Germany is owned by private individuals and municipal companies. Energy companies own just 12%. Nuclear Foreign government-owned Most of our offshore wind and nuclear power is owned by foreign governments. Source: SERIS Energy companies: 12% Germany Individuals & communities: 47% Total installed capacity, 2012: 73GW Institutional & strategic investors: 41% Source: energytransition.de Source: House of Commons environmental audit committee 10 11 As well as failing to upgrade our infrastructure, we are not managing existing demand as well as we should. The Department for Transport has consistently overestimated the demand for new roads. Index of car traffic (2003=100) 200% 1989 GB forecast (high) 175% 1997 GB forecast (high) 150% 2009 England forecast 125% GB actual 50% 25% 40 20 30 20 20 20 10 20 00 20 90 19 80 19 19 70 0% Source: Department for Transport We could do much more to manage electricity use by improving the efficiency of appliances, as the rest of Europe has done. Between 2005 and 2010 there was no improvement in the average efficiency of appliances bought in the UK, comparing very poorly against the EU-wide improvement of 7%. UK Total 23 EU countries 0% Belgium In order to avoid unnecessary expenditure, a value-formoney review of all planned infrastructure should take place to ensure that it is necessary and that alternative means of providing capacity cannot be found. Subsidy allocations should be reformed so that smallerscale generation technologies such as onshore wind and solar can compete with larger technologies on a level playing field. Market incentives to capture the full potential from reducing demand and better managing demand in both energy and transport should be boosted through new energy efficiency technologies, ‘smart’ home energy management technologies and smart-tickets. 7% Holland Source: Global Action Plan OUR IDEAS As traditional sources of finance dry up, reforms such as Green ISAs and new responsible investment rules are needed to make it easier for local authorities, communities and individuals to invest in low-carbon generation and help keep the lights on. 100% 75% THE SOLUTIONS 4% 3% Poland Germany 8% 9% France Austria 2% 12% Italy 11% Spain 18% 12 13 THE REGIONAL CHALLENGE The government can help create well-paid and decent jobs in every region by developing a low-carbon industrial strategy and providing the conditions for investment in low-carbon infrastructure. There is a huge regional imbalance in jobs growth between London and the rest of the UK. GDP versus jobs growth (2007=100) 120 National GDP 115 As the map opposite illustrates, good jobs are available all around the country from low-carbon projects. 45 Yet onshore wind farms have been delayed & 12 blocked in the past Jobs in London Jobs outside London 12 months alone 110 Source: RUK 105 100 95 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 The government’s industrial strategies are not backing every low-carbon sector. Source: IPPR calculations using ONS statistics Electricity generation capacity from low-carbon sources, by region >5,000MW (operational and planned capacity, MW, 2014) 2,000–3,499MW 3,500–4,999MW 1,000–1,999MW 0–999MW North East Scotland Onshore wind: 494 Offshore wind: 166 Solar PV: 64 Nuclear: 1,310 Total: 2,034 Onshore wind: 9,033 Offshore wind: 2,140 Solar PV: 112 Nuclear: 2,652 Total: 13,937 Yorkshire Onshore wind: 574 Offshore wind: 429 Solar PV: 164 Nuclear: 0 Total: 1,167 Northern Ireland Onshore wind: 1,223 Offshore wind: 0 Solar PV: N/A Nuclear: 0 Total: 1,223 East Midlands Onshore wind: 576 Offshore wind: 464 Solar PV: 199 Nuclear: 0 Total: 1,239 North West Onshore wind: 462 Offshore wind: 1,086 Solar PV: 142 Nuclear: 2,610 Total: 4,300 East of England Onshore wind: 452 Offshore wind: 2,342 Solar PV: 207 Nuclear: 1,250 Total: 4,251 West Midlands The Committee on Climate Change has criticised the government’s current approach: “[DECC’s central] scenario with high nuclear deployment, but low investment in carbon capture and storage and offshore wind during the 2020s… would imply unacceptable costs and risks of achieving the 2050 target and/or of very high electricity prices.” 14 ar Nucle otive vehicles) Aulutdoingmlow-emission (inc d re win Offsho d re win Onsho Solar ure n capt o b r a C age & stor Onshore wind: 18 Offshore wind: 0 Solar PV: 144 Nuclear: 0 Total: 162 London Onshore wind: 11 Offshore wind: 0 Solar PV: 46 Nuclear: 0 Total: 57 Wales Onshore wind: 1,197 Offshore wind: 726 Solar PV: 121 Nuclear: 540 Total: 2,584 South West Onshore wind: 329 Offshore wind: 0 Solar PV: 427 Nuclear: 4,510* Total: 5,266 South East Onshore wind: 111 Offshore wind: 1,140 Solar PV: 296 Nuclear: 1,230 Total: 2,777 Note: figures for ‘Solar PV’ include operational capacity only, not projects approved or under construction. *Includes planned Hinkley Point C station. Source: IPPR analysis based on data from RenewableUK Supply chain jobs installing energy efficiency measures are available in every region, as well as in the renewable and low-carbon energy sectors, which are growing in many regions. 15 THE SOLUTIONS The Green Investment Bank has directly committed... OUR IDEAS £1.3bn ...and mobilised... The low-carbon economy provides jobs in every region of the UK. Industrial strategies should therefore be put in place for every low-carbon sector, with a greater focus on developing appropriate skills in every region. But this is a drop in the ocean compared to the £200bn £4.8bn of investment in green projects needed by 2020, which would bring jobs to all regions of the UK. We need to sell more electric cars in Britain if we want a bigger share of the growing global market and the jobs that will come with it – especially for the Midlands and North East. Electric vehicles sold per 1,000 vehicles 25 22.75 Britain currently sells just 0.84 plug-in electric vehicles per 1,000 vehicles – significantly behind many countries including Norway, the global leader. 20 15 The Green Investment Bank should be given borrowing powers with immediate effect so that it can support our low-carbon sectors and create jobs in every region of the country. In order to provide certainty for the clean technology supply chain, the government should adopt the Committee on Climate Change’s proposal of a 2030 decarbonisation target for the power sector. Source: ACEA 10 9.05 5 1.05 0.84 0 16 Jobs installing energy efficiency measures, which are needed in every region to improve our building stock, should be created for those facing long-term unemployment through job guarantees. UK Norway Portugal France 17 Landmark UN climate summit begins in Paris to try to agree a new global climate deal Global carbon dioxide emissions, 2010 Rest of the world: 34% 08 In China, more and more regions are regulating to reduce levels of coal consumption, which is expected to peak by 2020. China: 25% greatest market failure the world has ever seen… it demands an international response, based on a shared understanding of long-term goals and agreement on frameworks for action.” EU: 11% Provinces with absolute coal consumption reduction targets Provinces with negative growth targets Provinces with coal consumption growth slowdown targets Provinces announced intentions to impose coal control measures Stern Review Provinces without action All targets are within the timeframe of 2013–2017 Japan: 3% India: 6% Source: Financial Times; data from EIA “Climate change is the US: 16% Russia: 5% 20 30 12 75 07 NOVEMBER China, the US and EU (including Britain) must take the lead in tackling climate change – otherwise the whole world, including many living in abject poverty, will suffer the consequences. 18 Coal 80 20 2015 1 UN climate talks in Lima to agree outline of new international climate agreement 85 11 DECEMBER DECEMBER 90 20 23 EU leaders due to agree new EU climate and energy targets 95 10 OCTOBER OCTOBER OCTOBER Ban Ki Moon’s climate summit in New York City 100 20 2014 23 23 105 20 SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER 110 09 The year ahead is critical for securing a global deal Gas 20 The government can ensure that global action is taken on climate change by maintaining momentum for an ambitious EU climate and energy package and a global deal at Paris in December 2015. In the US, hundreds of dirty coal plants are coming off the system, and new pollution standards have banned new coal stations from being built. US energy consumption (2007=100) THE INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGE Source: World Bank Source: Greenpeace However... 19 THE SOLUTIONS ...in Europe, coal consumption has risen in recent years. 780 OUR IDEAS mtCO2 760 In order to encourage a global deal on climate change, Britain should support the adoption of a new, legally-binding EU-wide commitment to halve greenhouse gas pollution (on 1990 levels) by 2030, provided that there is sufficient ambition from other major economies at the UN climate summit in Paris in 2015. 740 720 700 680 660 2010 Source: Sandbag 2011 2012 2013 The EU’s main green policy – the Emissions Trading Scheme – has failed to set a stable and adequately high price for carbon, which would have prevented the resurgence of coal. Spot price of EUA carbon allowances, 2005–2014 €35 €30 EU Allowance Unit (EUA) €25 €25: EUA price needed to influence long-term capacity switching according to the IEA €20 €15 €10 A successful outcome to the Paris summit will be contingent on: 1. A fair contribution to finance for adaptation and lowcarbon development in some of the poorest and most vulnerable countries 2. Targets to cut emissions set for every five-year period with the aim of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The UK must support the establishment of a global sustainable development goal specifically related to keeping global temperatures from rising by more than 2°C. To avoid coal use increasing and undermining Britain’s commitment to a global deal, the government’s Emissions Performance Standard for carbon pollution should be extended so that the rules apply to the UK’s existing coalfired plants. Within the EU, the UK should push for other member states to follow the UK’s lead in addressing the resurgence of coal. €5 13 Feb 2014 23 Jan 2013 3 Jan 2012 3 Feb 2011 14 Jan 2010 16 Feb 2009 21 Jan 2008 21 Feb 2007 27 Jan 2006 €0 Source: the Intercontinental Exchange with calculations from Sandbag Climate Campaign 20 21 IMPACT We are grateful to individuals from a number of organisations which presented to the roundtable discussions that informed this document. To develop this document, IPPR engaged with representatives from all three main political parties and heard expert testimony from many different organisations. “ WE CAN’T CONTROL WHOLESALE PRICES. BUT BY ENCOURAGING HOME-GROWN ENERGY – INCLUDING RENEWABLES AND NUCLEAR – WE CAN INFLUENCE SOME OF THE COSTS OVER TIME. BUT THE BEST WAY TO CUT BILLS IN THE LONG-TERM IS TO CUT OUR USE OF ENERGY ” ED DAVEY, MINISTER FOR ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE “ BILLS ARE RISING YEAR ON YEAR. THE MARKET HAS FAILED TO UNLOCK THE INVESTMENT THE COUNTRY NEEDS, AND PUBLIC TRUST AND CONSENT HAS BEEN LOST ” CAROLINE FLINT, SHADOW MINISTER FOR ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE “ NOT JUST THE GREEN INVESTMENT BANK BUT THE CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA IS AN AREA OF IMPORTANT CONSENSUS. WE MUSTN’T TAKE THAT FOR GRANTED AND WE NEED TO REINVEST IN THAT AND KEEP IT THAT WAY ” GREG BARKER, MINISTER OF STATE FOR ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE (2010–14) IPPR is particularly grateful to our steering group, which included: • Ruth Davis, political director at Greenpeace • Nick Mabey, chief executive and founding director of E3G • Matthew Spencer, director of Green Alliance • Michael Jacobs, senior adviser on international climate change policy at IDDRI • Ben Caldecott, head of government advisory at Bloomberg New Energy Finance • Duncan Brack, vice chair of the Liberal Democrats’ federal policy committee and manifesto group. We would also like to thank the European Climate Foundation for their generous funding. 22 23 OTHER IPPR WORK Many of the ideas and analysis in this publication are taken from IPPR’s reports on energy, transport and climate change, which can be downloaded from our website, ippr.org. IPPR has the highest media profile of all UK thinktanks, and is a prominent voice on climate change, energy and transport issues. “ OVER THE NEXT DECADE MANY OF BRITAIN’S AGEING POWER STATIONS WILL CLOSE, WHILE DEMAND FOR POWER WILL INCREASE. THAT IS WHY WE MUST START ‘FRACKING’ – BUT WE CANNOT ALLOW A FRACKING FREE-FOR-ALL. EXPLOITING A RANGE OF DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES – SHALE, WIND AND NUCLEAR – IS THE ONLY WAY TO DEAL WITH BRITAIN’S TWIN CRISES. ” WILL STRAW, ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, THE TIMES (MAY 2013) IPPR works with international partners to examine climate change policy in the world’s three biggest emitters – the EU, the US and China. 24 25 IPPR 4th Floor, 14 Buckingham Street London, WC2N 6DF T: +44 (0)20 7470 6100 E: [email protected] www.IPPR.org @IPPR