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Social and economic aspects of ICZM; functionality and valuation Annemie Volckaert First BeNCoRe Conference 26/04/2007 Outline presentation Socio economic impact of major activities Overview recent studies Gaps Socio economic impact: challenges Comment Green Paper topic “how can quality of life be maintained in coastal regions” Users of the Belgian part of the North Sea Belgian part of the North Sea (BPNS): Part of southern North Sea 3600 km² Different users Shipping & anchorage Fishery/ mariculture Aggregate extraction Dredging Dumping Military exercises Off-shore constructions Wrecks, buoys, masts Cables & pipelines Tourism/ recreation Nature areas Sustainable management of North Sea Socio-economic Impact on the Environment Identification Valuation I. Maritime transport Shipping: Commercial (incl. ferries) Fisheries Offshore industries: wind energy, aggregate extraction, dredging & dumping, etc. Recreational Risk analysis of Marine Activities in the Belgian Part of the North Sea (RAMA) – SPSD II (2006) Evaluation of marine degradation in the North Sea (MARE-DASM) – OSTC (2002) Risk analysis of Marine Activities in the Belgian Part of the North Sea (RAMA) Supported by the Federal Science Policy Goals Risk-analysis of shipping incidents with environmental damage on the Belgian part of the North Sea Study area: BPNS Excl. Scheldt traffic Excl. Noordhinder TSS Data: Database IVS-SRK Data period 01/04/2003 – 31/03/2004 Data on ferries from Ostend Impact valuation Historical data Modelling GIS based analysis Qualitative impact table Release assessment: Cargo spill risk Tonnes/yr spilled Highest risk class 8 (dangerous, no info) Class 1 (MP, cat A) 1.0 E-08 - 1.0 E-06 1.0 E-06 - 1.0 E-05 1.0 E-05 - 1.0 E-04 1.0 E-04 - 1.0 E-03 1.0 E-03 - 1.0 E-02 > 1.0 E-02 Total: 539 t/yr Containers: 390 t/yr Total: 12.3 t/yr Containers: 9.9 t/yr Class 2 (crudes) Total: 101 t/yr Oil tankers: 101 t/yr Exposure and effect assessment Selection of two scenarios Sensitivity analysis (GIS-based) Worst case oil: 17.000 ton/accident; crudes Worst case HNS: 8.000 ton/accident (1.000 ton/accident); acetone cyanohydrine Ecological parameters (e.g. Ramsar, MPA, beach reserve) Socio-economic parameters (e.g. ports, spawning site, extraction zone, wind farm) 3 Scenarios (general, winter, summer ~ interests) Effect analysis Exposure assessment (PEC) Consequence assessment (PNEC) Risk characterisation (PEC/PNEC) Summer scenario Effect analysis : worst case Exposure assessment: MU slicklets model (BMM) 12,6 km² oil spill In 13 hours Zwin Consequence assessment: LC50 aromatic comp. Direct loss biota: 12% - 68% Bird loss open sea: 471 Bird loss Zwin: 741 Seabirds; 2595 Water birds Exposure assessment: No model available HNS (sedimentation) 0,01 mg/l (critical effect concentration = 1% loss biota) 75 simulation days Consequence assessment: Ecological impact area 8.000 ton: 70% BPNS 1.000 ton: 40% BPNS Evaluation of marine degradation in the North Sea (MARE-DASM) Goal Development of mathematical models assessing the risk and damage Identification & quantification of the different contaminants in the marine environment Socio-economic assessment criteria to determine the cost of degradation Development & evaluation of technical and legal procedures Socio-economic assessment Valuation of the non-use value of BPNS in case of an accidental oil spill Contingent Valuation method (questionnaire) Scenario: 10.000 m³ spill Scenario: 5.000 m³ spill Scenario: 200 m³ spill Willingness to pay: between 375 and 606 million € II. Industries Offshore: Wind energy Aggregate extraction LNG transport Environmental impact assessment MAREBASSE: Management, Research and Budgeting of Aggregates in Shelf Seas Related to End-users - SPSDII Balancing the Impacts of Human activities on the Belgian Part of the North Sea (BALANS) – SPSDII Aggregate extraction EIA as a legal instrument to evaluate impacts Legal basis: International: EIA directive (85/337/EC) National: Marine Law (20/01/1999) (art.28 §1) RD 09/09/2003: rules & procedures EIA Master Plan North Sea Political priorities Delimitation of zones RD 17/05/04 RD 01/09/04 EIA as a legal instrument to evaluate impacts Offshore windfarms C-Power: 60 turbines (5-7 MW), 30 km offshore Eldepasco: 36 turbines (5-7 MW), 38 km offshore Bligh Bank: 69 turbines (5 MW), 45 km offshore Sand- and gravel extraction Zeegra AWZ-Coast EIA as a legal instrument to evaluate impacts Impact valuation of the activity on different disciplines: Soil Water Atmosphere & Climate Noise & Vibrations/ Electromagnetic fields Fauna & flora & biodiversity Seasight Users Safety (shipping, radar, oil) Major challenges: cumulative effects III. Fisheries Commercial fisheries Small fleet Big fleet Shrimps Anglers (recreational) Balancing the Impacts of Human activities on the Belgian Part of the North Sea (BALANS) –SPSD II Balancing the Impacts of Human activities on the Belgian Part of the North Sea (BALANS) Goals & methodology Focus on: shrimp fisheries Aggregate extraction Procedure Conceptual model development Translation into a system-thinking environment Data entry Integrated conceptual policy & interface development (STELLA model) Scenario development Conceptual model (sand & gravel) Outcome Improve understanding of the activity Manage the effects of policy choices on sustainable management IV. Human induced impacts Effects on Socio-economic ecosystem activities Effect on abiotic Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities (CLIMAR) Coastal flooding Fisheries Ballast water & invasive species Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities (CLIMAR) Methodology WP1 Definition and modelling of climate change induced primary impacts at North Sea scale Climate change induced primary impacts: sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, salinity, temperature, etc.. Definition and modelling WP2 Deduction of climate change induced secondary impacts Case study - Coastal flooding Modelling Secondary impacts on the marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities Identification and classifications Case study – Fisheries sector Impact assessment WP3 Identification of adaptation scenario’s/measures Case study – Coastal flooding Identification/modelling of adaptation scenario’s/measures Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. extrapolation of adaptation scenario’s/measures Case study – Fisheries sector Identification/modelling of adaptation scenario’s/measures WP4 Evaluation of adaptation scenario’s/measures Case study – Coastal flooding Evaluation adaptation scenario/measures Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. Evaluation adaptation scenario/measures Case study – Fisheries sector Evaluation adaptation scenario/measures Elaboration of an evaluation framework for adaptation scenario’s/measures as a response to climate induced impacts (North Sea) Integrated sustainability assessment of adaptation scenario's/measures Formulation of recommendations towards North Sea future policy and its different socio-economical activities. Evaluation of the effects of the proposed adaptive strategies (embedding in policy, practical integration, implementation ) CESSE-ULB & VITO Contribution to SPICOSA BY Dr. WALTER HECQ Ir. MATEO CORDIER GUY ENGELEN JOACHIM MAES LEO DeNOCKER SPICOSA SPICOSA Fact sheet Science and Policy Integration for Coastal Systems Assessment (http://www.eucc.net/spicosa/) 54 Partner institutes, 22 countries, 18 study sites 6th FP 1 Feb 2007 – 1 Feb 2011 Objective: Develop a system dynamics modelling approach to support decision-making processes enabling integrated assessment of coastal systems in Europe Fully interlinked processes: physical & ecological; economic, demographic & societal; environmental & land use. at appropriate abstraction levels Carrying out of economic assessment : CESSE – ULB contribution to SPICOSA b) Assistance to SAF modelling in : Integrating economic assessment methodology (Input - Output tables…) in the systemic model EXTEND) Carrying out of economic assessment : Carrying out of economic assessment : a) reviewing success of application in other projects having carried out economic assessments (with spatial dimensions) c) Assistance to Study Site Applications in : - Selecting a methodology for economic evaluation - Adapting it to the SSA specificities - Carrying out the methodology on field (and real presence on field for few selected SSA) Conclusions Interdisciplinary approach is a must! Same language/Terminology: Good data base is fundamental Importance of stakeholders (private, institutes, etc.) Between different partners Scientific team & stakeholders Concrete problem formulation Data delivery Expertise Valuation Visualisation of results (GIS maps, models) Dissemination to public (awareness; language) Socio-economic impact: challenges Other important players: Commercial fisheries and recreational anglers Tourism New developments: LNG tankers, offshore energy, mariculture, harbour expansion Demography (older population) Other important impacts of users: Mobility Ballast water Invasive species Climate change Cumulative impacts Socio-economic impact: challenges (2) Problem formulation: Tackling problems of public concern Improving communication with private sector Improving communication with policy Methodological: Good data base with relevant parameters Accessible quality data Quantification of impacts (modelling) Valuation of non-use values of the BPNS: Contingent Valuation method (Willingness to pay) Other methodologies? Socio-economic impact: challenges (3) Broader scale: Sea/coastal/hinterland interface Border-crossing problems: climate change, cumulative effects, etc. Cooperation with neighbouring countries (Nl, En, Fr) Data input Methodology Integrated results European level (e.g. Spicosa) Socio-economic impact: challenges (4) Policy instruments Spatial planning (European scale) Integrated decision models (Balans, Climar,…) Coordinating institutes Need for innovative and flexible research Green paper The issue on how quality of life in coastal regions of Europe can be maintained, while continuing to develop sustainable income and jobs? Development inevitably brings with it pressures on space and the environment. It requires improvements in accessibility to, and internal mobility within, coastal zones, in particular small islands, through transport infrastructure improvements. It also calls for the supply of general interest services (health, education, water and energy supply, telecommunications, postal services, waste water and waste treatment) in order to improve the quality of life in coastal zones, in particular during peak tourist seasons Green paper (2) Quality of life Valuation Parameters Place to live & work Market value Economical Social Leisure & tourism Market and non-market value Econ. / soc. Other Intrinsic value coast & sea Non-market value CVM Willingness to pay Seasonal variation: tourist peak Good indicator Database: Positive: jobs but temporarily Coastal zone (kustbarometer) Negative: conflicts, facilities (WTP, water), … Marine zone Integration between zones Green paper (3) Possible solutions to improve quality of life Spatial planning larger scale Diversification of tourism Sustainable fisheries Connection sea/coast/hinterland Needs: families, older people, etc. New techniques Alternatives Conflict with anglers at sea Legal & policy instruments Sustainable income and jobs Decrease pressure on environment Improve quality of life Control (safety, pollution) Integration WFD, Maritime strategy, etc. Coordinating institute to manage integration