Download In the name of Almighty “ALLAH” who Is Most Beneficent And Most

In the name of Almighty “ALLAH” who
Is
Most Beneficent
And
Most Merciful
Securing Livelihoods in The Realm of Climate Change
and Food insecurity: A Case Study of Kaghan Valley
by
Umair Safdar
B.Sc. (Hons.) Agriculture
Reg. No. 2006-ag-1910
A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree of
Master of Science (Hons.)
In
Agricultural Extension
Institute of Agri. Extension and Rural Development
Faculty of Social Sciences
University of Agriculture, Faisalabad
Pakistan
2012
To
The Controller of Examinations,
University of Agriculture,
Faisalabad
“We, the supervisory committee, certify that the contents and the format of thesis
submitted by Umair Safdar, Regd. No. 2006-ag-1910 have been found satisfactory and
recommend that it be processed for evaluation by the External Examiner(s) for the award
of degree”.
SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE:
CHAIRMAN: __________________________
Dr. Babar Shahbaz
MEMBER: __________________________
Prof. Dr. Tanvir Ali
MEMBER:__________________________
Dr. Izhar Ahmad Khan
DEDICATED
To
MY AFFABLE PARENTS
a symbol of success for me
always behaved me like a friend
whome mature, valuable guidance
enabled me to perceive and pursue
higher ideas of life
MY SVELTE BROTHER & SISTER
whose prayers, sympathies
steer my way towards success
i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am immeasurably indebted to ALMIGHTY ALLAH, thepropitious, the benevolent and
sovereign whose blessing and glory flourished my thoughts and thrived my ambitions.
Trembling lips and wet eyes praise for HOLY PROPHET (P.B.U.H) for enlightening our
conscience with the essence of faith in ALLAH , converging all His kindness and mercy upon
Him.
The work presented in this manuscript was accomplished under the sympathetic attitude,
fatherly behavior, animate directions, observant pursuit, scholarly criticism, cheering perspective
and enlightened supervision of Dr. Babar Shahbaz, Assistant Professor, Institute of Agri.
Extension and Rural Development, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. His thorough analysis
and rigorous critique improved not only the quality of this dissertation, but also my overall
understanding. I am grateful to his ever inspiring guidance, keen interest, scholarly comments
and constructive suggestions throughout the course of my studies.
I deem it my utmost pleasure in expressing my gratitude with the profound benedictions
to Prof. Dr. Tanvir Ali, Director, Institute of Agri. Extension and Rural Development and Dr.
Izhar Ahmad Khan, Assistant Professor, Institute of Agri. Extension and Rural Development
University of Agriculture, Faisalabad for providing me with strategic command at every step. I
extend deep emotions of appreciations, gratitude and indebtedness for his valuable guidance.
This research work was conducted within the framework of Research Project RP2
(Livelihood Futures) of National Center for Competence in Research (NCCR) North-South,
Switzerland. NCCR (North-South) is externally funded by the Swiss National Science
Foundation (SNSF) and Swiss Agency for Development and Co-operation (SDC). I am thankful
to NCCR (North-South), Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) Islamabad and team
leaders of RP2 Prof. Ulrike Mueller Boeker (University of Zurich, Switzerland) and Dr. Sagar
Sharma (Kathmandu University, Nepal) for their support.
I want to thank all of my friends for their good company, cooperation and encouragement.
May ALLAH ALMIGHTY impart me with the energy to fulfill their noble inspirations
and expectations and further enlighten my capability (Aameen).
Umair Safdar
!
ii
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CHAPTER
TITLE
PAGE
1
Introduction
1
2
Review of Literature
10
3
Methodology
25
4
Results & Discussion
30
5
Summary
84
References
89
Appendix
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iii
!
List of Tables
No.
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
4.11
4.12
4.13
4.14
4.15
4.16
4.17
4.18
4.19
4.20
4.21
4.22
4.23
4.24
4.25
4.26
4.27
4.28
4.29
4.30
4.31
Title
Page
Age of the Respondents
Education of the Respondents
Distribution of respondents according to their participation in farming
work
Distribution of respondents according to their house type
Source of lightening in house
Source of fuel for cooking
Knowledge of respondents about Climate change
31
32
Source of information about climate change
Distribution of respondents according to their perception about Climate
change
Adaptation strategies of respondents
39
Distribution of respondent’s according to their perceptions about climate pattern
Coping strategies against climatic extremes
Source of Water
Farm animals of respondents
Land ownership of respondents
Distribution of respondents according to their area under cultivation
Distribution of crops grown by respondents in different cropping season
Distribution of respondents according to their seed acquisition
Distribution of respondents according to their perception about seed
spoiled
Distribution of respondents according to fertilizer use
Distribution of respondents according to household fruit trees
Major (primary) livelihood activity and income from that activity
Secondary livelihood activity and income from that activity
Tertiary livelihood activity and income from that activity
Distribution of respondents according to their access to borrow money
Household Expenditure of the respondents
Household food consumption pattern of the respondents
Perceptions of respondents about indicators of food absorption
Shocks faced during last one year
Coping strategies against food shortage
Jobs of different family members
34
34
36
37
38
40
42
47
49
50
51
54
55
56
57
58
58
59
60
62
63
64
66
68
70
71
73
76
iv
4.32
4.33
4.34
Perceptions of respondents according to their source of agri. Information
Perceptions of respondents about agri. extension department
Perceptions of respondents about forest department
81
81
82
v
List of Figures
No.
Title
Page
1.1
Agriculture land at Paras village (Kaghan Valley)
6
3.1
Map of the study area (Kaghan Valley)
26
4.1
View of house in a village
35
4.2
View of clouds over the valley
!"#
4.3
Annual mean precipitation averaged over Kaghan Valley
!!#
4.4
Annual mean Temperature averaged over Kaghan Valley
!$#
4.5
Farm animals at household level
$%#
4.6
View of wheat grown in the field
$!#
4.7
Major Livelihood activity of respondents in the study area
&"#
4.8
Secondary livelihood activity of respondents in the study area
&%#
4.9
Tertiary livelihood activity of respondents in the study area
&!#
vi
ABSTRACT
This research study was conducted within the frame work of the Research Project RP2
(Livelihood Futures) funded by the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR
North-South). Kaghan Valley in Mansehra district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province of
Pakistan is the case study area. The mountainous areas of KPK are characterized with the patches
of agricultural fields and terrace farming; while subsistence livelihoods depend on agriculture
and livestock in this region. These mountainous regions are extremely vulnerable to climate
change and climatic extremes. It has been reported by different researches that farmers adopt
various strategies to cope with the negative effect of climate change. This study was designed to
analyze how small farmers cope with climate change and climate extremes and secure their
livelihoods to achieve food security. The results indicate that there is significant change in
climate in the study area for last fifty years and this climate change had negative impacts on
agriculture and livelihoods of the respondents. Due to lack of resources and awareness, small
farmers and other peoples are unable to effectively cope with the negative impacts of climate
change. Food storage, migration and diversification of livelihood activities were found important
coping strategies in the events of climate extreme and to attain household food security. Life
history analysis indicates that farming was main strategy some decades ago but due to unfavorable climate and land degradation people started to adopt different strategies such as
livestock farming and migration. It was also concluded that due to limited livelihood
opportunities, unemployment and climatic extremes it is very difficult to attain household food
security and people borrow money, reduce number of meals, consume less preferred (less
nutritious) food and sell their household articles in case of food shortage. Non climatic factors
like increasing prices of food and agri. inputs had also a negative impact on the food security of
the respondents and they rely on less expensive and cheap food to sustain their livelihood. There
is immediate need to create employment opportunities and alternate agriculture practices must be
introduce to build the resilience of people against climate change and food security. It is also
suggested that government and private sector must play active role by generating livelihood
opportunities and promoting agriculture in the area.
vii
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Climate Change and Agriculture
Climate change can be defined as change in the state of the climate that can be identified.
It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of
human activity and these changes directly or indirectly effects human activities, their sources of
livelihood and routine life (IPCC, 2007).It also refers to as a change in weather that persists for
decades or longer, arising from human activity that alter the composition of atmosphere i.e.
green house gas emissions (Oxfam, 2009).
Warming in present scenario is primarily caused by human activities which results in
increase of the green houses gases. The burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) releases
carbon dioxide in very huge amount into the atmosphere and only half of it is absorbed by the
oceans, plants, trees and rest of it is mounted up in atmosphere (NAS,2001). Climate change
have significant effect on the livelihood of the people as it is difficult for the people especially
farmers to adopt the practices according to climate change (IFPRI, 2011).Adaptation to climate
change is relatively very difficult for those people who are located in marginalized environments,
areas of high variability of temperature, rainfall and natural hazards struggling to sustain their
livelihoods under the stress of climatic variability and food insecurity. Small and subsistence
farmers are more vulnerable to climate change and it is hard for them to cope with climatic
variability because of small farm sizes, lack of modern technology and diverse non climatic
stress, so there is need to apply rapidly growing scientific knowledge and to enhance the adaptive
capacity of farmers (Mirza, 2003).Climate changes have its negative impact on agriculture and
livestock. These agro-ecological changes directly affect the agriculture and food production,
which threats the state of food security (Schmindhuber and Tubiello 2007). It is estimated that
average temperature will be increased by 20C to 40C by the year 2080.Thus the yield of many
crops will be threatened severely due to this increase in temperature, so in future it will be more
difficult to feed the growing population and to sustain the state of food security of this world
(Nelson et al, 2010).
Pakistan is heavily populated country with less than 5% of the area covered with trees
and forests. It consists of vast areas that have very high average temperature. In Pakistan extreme
weather conditions will result in draughts, severe winters, underground water shortage etc. which
directly affect food and agriculture. Small increase in average temperature can cause abnormal
weather conditions leading to flash floods (Ahmad, 2011).In hilly and mountainous regions of
northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and similarly non irrigated (barani) areas of northern
Punjab, flood have caused a extensive damage to the crops, livestock and infrastructure in the
area and hence make the people more vulnerable in these regions.
1.2 Food Security and Climate Change
World Food Summit in 1996 defined food security as when all people, all the times,
have physical and economical access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary
needs and to fulfill their daily responsibilities actively. This definition reveals that food security
has three pillars i.e. physical availability of food, socio-economic access to food and food
absorption (FAO, 2006). Physical availability of food is determined on the basis of consumption
versus production. Access to food is determined by food consumption scores (FCS),household
income, child dependency ratio, living conditions, food expenditure, market price of food
commodities and coping strategies while food absorption is measured on the basis of state of
sanitation, access to drinking water and female literacy(Suleri and Haq,2009). Every day more
than 900 million people sleep hungry world over and this is due to lack of purchasing power,
2
high rates of food commodities than their annual income (Bankus et al., 2009). In developing
countries the people who live in rural areas are involved in continuous struggle to secure
livelihood in the context of severe social, economic and political circumstances (Murray, 2001).
Poverty and food security are closely associated to each other since the poor cannot take
precautionary measure against food insecurity thus they are the first to be vulnerable to it (Broca,
2002).Climate change also poses its negative impact on the food security of the small farmers by
threatening their crops and livestock and make them more vulnerable. As the agriculture in
mountainous is difficult practice due to heavy snow and lack of resources and climatic extremes
adds more in this and pull them in poverty, so agricultural based social safety nets in resource
scarce areas play an important role to sustain their livelihood and to achieve the state of food
security (Tareen, 2011).There is need to increase the productivity of all food crops and livestock
sector rather than merely concentration upon just achieving wheat based food security(Ahmad
and Iqbal, 2006).It can be done by adapting latest farm technology by farmers, capacity building
and by diversify their livelihoods through optimum mix of farm and non-farm sectors
employment. It is revealed that state of food security has been deteriorated since 2003.It is worse
in 61 percent districts (80 out of 131 districts) of Pakistan in 2009. It is increased from 2003
when conditions for food security were inadequate in 45 percent districts (54 out of 120 districts)
of Pakistan. Almost half of the population (48.6%) doesn’t have access to sufficient food for
their healthy and active life (Suleri and Haq, 2009).
Due to decreased agriculture productivity and increased food prices for last many years the
people who were slightly above than poverty line are now got back in to poverty and those who
were poor are now below poverty line and facing the problems of malnutrition and food
insecurity (hunger) and they are struggling for survival (Government of Pakistan,
3
2011).Livestock is a major assets of rural people in the arid plains and mountain regions. It
provide important source of income and food but also serve as buffer in hard times, if crop fails
animals can be slaughtered and eaten or sold to market to generate income and to sustain their
household food security (WFP,2010).
1.3 Role of Agriculture in the Economy of Pakistan and KPK
Pakistan is a land of four seasons and is the part of sub continent south of Himalayan Mountains
situated between longitude 600 and 700 E and latitude 240 and 370 N. The climate of Pakistan is
said to be semi arid with temperature lies between 20 C and 500C. The mean annual precipitation
ranges from less than 10 mm to 75 mm. Pakistan is blessed with all natural resources like fertile
land, water, salts, minerals which are basic need of any agricultural country.
Agriculture is the main pillar of Pakistan’s economy and which consists of two sectors
(crop and livestock).It contributes 21.8% to GDP of Pakistan and provide basic needs for the
60% of the population which is directly or indirectly linked with agriculture (Government of
Pakistan, 2011).It is the major source of employment as it accounts for around 41.7% of the
labor force moreover,67.5% of the population of country living in rural areas is directly or in
directly associated with agriculture to sustain their livelihood (Government of Pakistan, 2011).
Pakistan is the 6th largest country of the world in terms of population, consists of
177million individuals and this number is increasing at the rate of 2.07% every year. Agriculture
is the only source to feed the fast growing population and the total cultivated land is increased by
40% during past 60 years (Government of Pakistan, 2010). As world population is going to be 9
billion by 2050 it brings considerable challenges for sustainable agriculture production and with
these existing challenges climate change adds more, because food production is directly
associated with local temperature and rain (Nelson et al., 2010).Agricultural production in
4
Pakistan is 3 to 4 times less as compared to some developed countries, so attention must be paid
to provide inputs and latest agricultural information to the farmers in order to meet the food,
fiber and shelter for growing population to achieve the national food security. It is significant
that climate change and its variability have its negative impact on agricultural production
worldwide (FAO, 2010). The associated impacts of high temperature, frequently occurred
extreme disasters like flood, drought and fluctuation in precipitation patterns results in depress
yields and increase production risks in different regions of the world and hence widening the gap
between rich and poor (Mall et al., 2006).Moreover, it may result to create the gap in current
production and consumption between developed and developing countries and ultimately poses
its negative impacts on the food security of the people.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK ) is the province of Pakistan whose most part consists of mountains.
It has large rugged dry hills and vast gravelly plains and patches of agricultural fields. The
subsistence livelihood of this region is based on agriculture and livestock. Small farmers have
limited access to technology and facilities and are directly affected by increased prices (WFP,
2010).Maize is the dominant pulse crop grown, while potato and cabbage are the main
vegetables grown in KPK which is the main source of income and play an important role in
sustaining the livelihood of the rural population in the region.
5
Fig. 1.1: Agriculture land at Paras village (Kaghan Valley)
Most part of the KPK is mountainous with severe cold weather and heavy snowfall make the
farming impossible in rural areas of KPK which is the basic source of subsistence livelihood of
people. Recent changes in temperature and heavy rainfall has severely affected the livelihoods of
small farmers, because their livelihoods mainly depend on the natural resources which depend
upon nature and climate (Sadaat and Saifulislam, 2011).In Kaghan valley people migrate to
relatively warmer places like Mansehra to keep themselves safe from the harsh climate, but this
migration results in the disturbance of the livelihood patterns of the people and ultimately results
into poverty and food insecurity (Martin,2012).
6
1.4 Need for the Project
Pakistan is an agricultural country and most of the people are directly or indirectly
attached with agricultural sector. God have gifted this country with all seasons and diverse
weathers but sometimes these changing weathers become severe and drastic. These severe and
drastic changes over time, which cause natural variability, are called climate extremes.
Climate change has adverse effect on agriculture which is a major source of livelihoods
and food. People have to leave their places for survival and to keep themselves safe from these
severe circumstances and this migration badly effect on their source of income, make them food
insecure and pull them towards poverty, malnutrition, hunger and food insecurity. Malla (2008)
stated that rising temperature and precipitation increase yield of wheat and rice but at the same
time it is harmful for maize in Nepal and decrease yield of maize. He said that land sliding,
severe rainfall, floods, heavy storms, precipitations, rising of temperature are all due to climate
change and have adverse and negative impact on agriculture food security and livelihoods.
Many studies related to the impact of climate change on food security and agriculture
were conducted throughout the globe which emphasis that climate change will have its severe
impacts on food security and agriculture of this world in coming years (Lobell et al., 2008),
however little information is available regarding adaptation strategies of farmers in the context of
climate change and food security in the mountainous regions of KPK. The main focus of this
study is Kaghan valley in district Mansehra of KPK because it is a fragile mountainous area and
changing weathers and climate change directly affect the source of livelihood of farmers of that
area and this aspect is not studied before. This study is designed to analyze how small farmers
cope with climate change and secure their livelihoods to achieve food security, and how
7
agricultural extension services can assist the farmers to cope with the climate change,climate
extremes, food security and ultimately livelihoods improvement.
Objectives:
General objective:
To study how farmers secure their livelihoods in the realm of climate change and food insecurity
in Kaghan Valley.
Specific objectives:
1. To identify the patterns of climate change in the study area.
2. To find out the coping strategies of farmers in the event of climatic extremes.
3. To analyze the state of food security in the study area.
4. To study the changing patterns of livelihoods overtime.
5. To suggest how agri. extension services can assist farmers to cope with negative effects
of climate change and climatic extremes.
1.4 Assumptions
Following assumptions guided the study:
i.
Respondents would provide accurate information on the basis of their own observations
and experiences without any biasness.
ii.
The responses of the respondents would be normally distributed.
iii.
Respondents would be well aware of various climate change extreme events.
8
1.5 Limitations
i.
It was not possible to cover the entire province and entire valley due to shortage of time
and resources.
ii.
The study was limit to 120 respondents due to shortage of time and resources.
iii.
Female respondents could not be approached directly due the customs and traditions of
the area.
iv.
Due to high illiteracy, interviews were conducted in the local language (Urdu, Hindko)
and were translated in English language.
9
CHAPTER 2
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
The main purpose of review of literature is to review and synthesize the available literature.
Through this exercise researcher becomes familiar and get knowledge about other studies and
relevant reports in the particular subject, he/she collects ideas about appropriate research
methodology for study and avoid replication of study. Some of the relevant review is presented
and discussed in this chapter.
2.1 Climate Change: Impacts on Agriculture and Food System!
Qian and Zhu (2001) studied the climate change from 1880 to 1996 in seven regions of
China. They found a lot difference in temperature among regions. Temperature is appeared to be
raised over the period 1930’s -1940’s .According to them in Central Eastern China and
Southwest China, floods, high rate of drought and natural disaster possess economic lost in last
decade in China and it leads to the evolution of monsoon system in East Asia.
Karl and Trenberth (2003) defined climate change as change in climate due to natural
variability, which is dominated by human activities. Modern climate change occurs due to
human induced atmospheric composition. They argued that emission of energy in the atmosphere
is due to changes in land use and urbanization which result in the extremes of temperature,
decrease in snow and ice and rise of sea level.
Holden et al. (2003) concluded that in Ireland climate change is considered to be a
serious threat for agricultural production. Barley and potato which are arable crops will be under
stress in coming years, as there will be increase in temperature of about 1.6oC over the country
can be expected by 2075 climate period. According to them in 2055 and 2075 potato yield will
be expected to fall due to competition of water among the different regions of Ireland but the
barley will remain a vital cereal crop and will play a significant role in livestock feed supply.
10
Patz et al. (2005) studied the impact of regional climate change on human health. They
argued that many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate variability, respiratory illness
due to heat waves and transmission of infectious diseases malnutrition from crop failures. It is
also found that a climate health relationship poses increasing health risks under future
projections of climate change.
Hussain et al. (2005) studied the impact of climate change in the North West Pakistan.
They divided area into two different regions: winter rain dominated high mountain region(35-37
N) and monsoon dominated sub mountain region (31.5-35 N).They concluded that during 19712000 there is slightly cooling mean annual temperature while there is rising trend in winter
temperature of both regions. This directly affects the delectations and snow melt which strongly
affect fresh water supply for irrigation both in mountainous and plain areas of Pakistan.
Von braun (2007) studied that climate change is major threat to sustaining food security.
Rising temperature, precipitation and extreme weather events occur very frequently. He
concluded that due to global warming and changing climate of South Asia could decrease the
production of cereals by 18.2% - 72.1% by 2080.
Brown et al. (2008) suggested that during the next four decades there will be severe and
direct impact of climate change on agriculture and food systems. Tropical and sub tropical
regions would be considerably effected by climate change as they are not very much able to cope
with changes in climate because they have very few options in their existing agriculture system
to start with unless early warning systems and development programmes are to be used more
efficiently.
Crabbe (2009) concluded that climate change poses the negative impact on aquaculture
including shrimp farming and seaweed farming. In tropical areas corals grow with in narrow
11
limits of temperature, provide livelihood for millions of people, which are under the serious
threat of environmental and climatic extremes.
Shah et al. (2010) studied the rainfall and temperature trend in KPK during winter season
in 2010.It was revealed that rainfall during the season resulted in a bad crop production but
seasonel rainfall kept normal during the winter season across the region. However the mean
temperature is observed slightly above normal temperature during the winter season across the
region.
Deressa et al. (2011) concluded that climate change is considered to be increased in the
concentration and frequency of droughts and floods which reduce the small scale, mixed
cropping and livestock production that employ 80% of the Ethiopian population. There is the
negative relationship between farm households and their vulnerability to climatic extremes. So
focus must be on to household and public risk management strategies like (water, safety nets,
extension systems, natural resources etc) to reduce inverse impact of climate change.
Sadaat and Saifulislam (2011) concluded that rise in temperature and heavy rainfall
shows severe climate conditions which has the negative impact on livelihoods of the people
which include agriculture and agricultural related activities especially fishing. So different
initiative are to be taken like natural resource conservation, infrastructure development, effective
use of agriculture land and water for sustainable rural development.
Martin (2012) concluded that in KPK province of Pakistan climate change is clearly
visible during the last century. He found that temperature is considerably increased in the months
of autumn and winter in North West Pakistan In high altitudes where growing season is too short
for crops to reach maturity, wheat and maize are grown as fodder crops where warming and
12
shortening of winter season is beneficial. So fodder crops can be used as food which can enhance
food security in the area.
Synthesis
It is synthesized that climate change is a serious threat towards sustaining food security and
agriculture of this world. It may be due to natural variability or the result of the human activities.
Rising temperature has negative impact on crop production and irregular pattern of rainfall adds
more in this situation. This change in climate is not only a threat for food system but also result
in low yield of crops. The people of resource scarce areas living in rural areas are vulnerable to
this climate change and their livelihoods become disturbed.
2.1.1 Coping and Adaptation Strategies
Berkes and Jolly (2001) studied the adaptation to climate change by Canadian western arctic
community. They found that traditional knowledge allows them to provide feedback on their
response to extreme climatic conditions. Involvement and feedback of local educational
institution and effective linkage of wildlife department with people helps a lot to enhance the
capacity of the community to deal with the events of climate change
Adger et al. (2003) concluded that in developing countries livelihood of people is based on
agriculture, fisheries and many other components. The societies in these areas are very active in
mobilizing people to cope with the changing climate by efficient natural resource management
by their own resources so that they can sustain their livelihoods by improving their agriculture
and fishing activities under the serious threat of climate change
Erikson et al. (2005) concluded that in Kenya and Tanzania peoples are very vulnerable
to climatic variability. The people involved in field like employment or charcoal burning can
cope better with the climatic stress as compared to those individuals who are involved in many
13
small activities. They also concluded that skill, labor and capital also played a key role on the
efforts of the peoples against the severe impacts of climate change.
Verchot et al. (2007) studied that tropical agriculture is very vulnerable particularly
smallholders farmers don’t have adequate resources to adapt to climate change. They argued that
agro forestry has its role in mitigating the atmospheric increase of green house gases (GHG) but
it played an important role in climate adaptation, especially for small farmers to sustain their
livelihoods.
Kelbessa (2007) concluded that Ethiopia is facing worst challenge of climatic extremes
like water scarcity, rapidly increasing dry forests, declining in grassland, rising temperature etc.
To cope with these challenges they conserve water resources to avoid the crises during dry
seasons. Drought resistant crops are also practiced to eradicate the problems regarding drought
and climatic variability.
Challinor et al. (2007) studied that Africa is the most vulnerable to climatic change and
variability. Agriculture played a key role in supporting livelihood and economic growth of the
most of the Africa. Climate change has posed a very negative effect on the crop productivity in
this region. The knowledge and information related to climate change and variability is the key
ability of farmers to cope with this challenge. So it is necessary for government to support and
facilitate adaption and resilience to climate change at local and national level.
Bryan et al. (2009) studied the adaptation and constraints faced by farmers in Ethiopia
and South Africa. According to them most practicable coping strategy is crop rotation and use of
different crop varieties, planting trees, conservation of soil and irrigation. Lack of access to
credit is the main barrier faced by farmers in the study area, while lack of access to land,
information and credit in Ethiopia and South Africa.
14
Lioubimtseva and Henebrg (2009) studied that in Central Asia there is considerable
change in climate and people are vulnerable due to this climatic variability. They said that
temperature is increased in summer and decreased in winter. On the other hand precipitation is
decreased in summer and there is modest increase or precipitation in winter. They concluded that
public education, awareness of environmental risks and agricultural extension activities are the
most practicable coping strategy in this region.
Sissoko et al. (2010) studied the impact of climate change on agriculture and livelihood in
West African Sahel. They concluded that west African Sahel have the extreme weather
conditions which are stressed by fast growing population, increasing temperature, rainfall and
degradation of natural resources. Climate change has the negative impact on agriculture which is
the basic source of livelihood of the people. They cope with these climatic extremes by selling
animals and diversification in cropping system and by adopting specific crops to reduce these
risks.
Simos et al. (2010) studies the adaptive capacity of farmers in the semi arid region of
Brazil. According to them country’s poorest population is situated in this area and they are very
vulnerable to climate change and suffer from its harsh impacts. Awareness on present and
upcoming climatic events and capacity building of small farmers at community level by
technology diffusion and technical education can help them to fight against the climatic
inconsistency.
Kotir (2011) concluded that Sub Saharan Africa is stressed by climate change which have
the negative impact on agriculture and food security which increase the threat of hunger in the
region. Farmers have adopted many strategies like soil conservation, tree planting and crop
15
rotation and by inducting new land for cultivation to face the climatic extremes and to sustain
their livelihood.
Das gupta et al.(2012) assessed people’s perceptions about climate change and their
preparedness at village level to develop resistance against the negative effect of climate change
in Bangladesh. They find that migration to other areas in search of employment is the most
practicable coping strategy adopted by people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. They prefer to
get nonfarm jobs due to decrease of arable land.
Kassam et al. (2012) concluded that in dry Mediterranean area, people compete with the
climate change by using crop residues and by on farm integration of crop-fodder-tree-livestock
systems involving effective management of biomass and stocking dates. They recommended that
there is the need to assess the socio-economic and ecological conditions under which
conservation agriculture would be adapted by small farmers of dry areas.
2.1.2 Role of Agri. Extension Services
Davis (2009) argued that agricultural extension services both public and private played a
major role in building farmers resilience to climate change. He concluded that agricultural
extension can help farmers by enhancing their capacity against climatic variability and
uncertainty and by preparing those to alleviate the consequences of climate change by guide
them how to deal with floods, drought, erosion etc.
Speranza et al. (2009) studied the adaptation of Public Agricultural Extension Services
(PAES) to climate change. They found that extension worker provide information and advice
farmers to cope with climate change impacts like deforestation, promote drought resistant
varieties, introducing new farming techniques and make them willing to adopt these practices.
16
But lack of resources for extension field staff, less extension staff to farmer ratio, aging of
extension field staff and dependence on external donor funding cause hurdle in their work.
Shahbaz et al. (2010) concluded that KPK is the mountainous region with severe weather
and scattered population. These mountainous areas require special cropping patterns, production
technology and attention to the farmer community will improve their livelihoods under these
crucial circumstances. Special training for extension workers and as well as for farmers is
required to secure livelihoods sources.
Rarieya and Fortun (2010) concluded that Kenya is facing extreme weather conditions as
compared to other African countries as the 70% of the natural disasters in Kenya occurs due to
climate change. Heavy rainfall and floods have devastating effect on agriculture and food
security of the peoples. So the community based organizations are founded which have
interaction with the agri. extension workers and scientists to get climatic information and to be
aware the farmers with newly available weather forecasts.
Qasim and Knew (2010) concluded that rain fed areas of Punjab; Pakistan has the
capability to increase crop production of small farmers and for their food security by efficient
use of quality of seed and by modern farming technologies. Agriculture extension services can
also play a vital role in this regard, by educating farmers to adopt innovative and improved
agriculture production technologies.
Olubandwa et al. (2011) summarized that agri. extension services play an important role
in agricultural production food security and in enhancing the farmer’s capacity to deal with
climate change in Kenya. They concluded that people can cope with climate change by working
together and by helping each other. They further explained that agri. extension department of
Kenya should adopt group demonstration technique as they have limited resources in order to
17
educate farmers to improve their agriculture and can better cope with climate change and food
insecurity.
2.2 Food Security: Global Debates
Ruben and Berg (2001) studied the role of non farm income of rural farm households in
Honduras. They argued that non farm income enables farmers to purchase inputs for better
agricultural productivity. Education, training, technical assistance and suitable policies for nonfarm employment can reduce the labor frequency in the agricultural production. On farm
activities can also be making better by micro credit services and public investments which
provide better livelihoods opportunities for rural people.
Beinorth (2001) concluded that food security situation is Asia is not encouraging. Only
few countries in Asia are able to feed their growing population. Farmers in poor countries are
exploring fragile land resources which results inland degradation and loss of bio diversity
because of scarcity of fertile agriculture land in Asia. So there is need to develop sustainable land
management policies to comfort the problem of food security in Asia.
Cheema (2005) studied the food insecure areas of Pakistan and concluded that increase in
poverty ratio in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkwa is the basic reason of food insecurity. He
also reported that in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkwa poverty rate is much higher than other
provinces of Pakistan.
Cohen et al. (2005) studied the stakes of food security and reported that availability of
food is possible where production and circulation networks are efficient. Similarly access to food
depends upon the socio-economic empowerment of the consumers. Stability can be harmfully
affected by climatic factor, price fluctuations and political and economic factors.
18
Ramachandran (2006) summarizes that women played a significant role in ensuring food
security at macro level as well as at household level. In South Asia women is performing many
farm and nonfarm activities but their efforts are not recognized and they have paid less wages.
Lack of education and gender discrimination is also a big problem for them. So it is necessary
that women should be empowered in South Asia and give status equal to men so that they can
contribute in a better way to attain household food security.
Arda (2006) explained that supermarkets played a significant role in world food economy
since 1990.They provide relatively cheaper and good quality food products to some groups of
urban consumers in developing countries and the poor inner city dwellers in more developed
ones. Thus it contributing its positive role towards food security.
Kidane et al. (2006) concluded that rising population of sub-Saharan Africa has poses a
serious threat to food security small farmers faces many problems as they have no access to latest
agricultural technology which is very costly, with appropriate support small farmers can make
their household food security secure by introducing draught resistance varieties and new methods
of growing crops and efficient use of water and also by involving women in crop production
activities.
Ravinder (2007) concluded that economy of Eritrea is based on agriculture crop
production and livestock sector. Most of the agriculture is rain fed. Like other African countries,
Eritrea is also the victim of food insecurity once in 10 years. The country is threatened with lack
of food production .To ensure food security, crop production, reduce dependency on food aid
carefully use of water is adopted by people of Eritrea.
19
Breisinger et al. (2010) recommended that ultimate solution to ensuring food security and
to eradicate poverty is by launching successful food security and poverty reduction programmes
which assist rural people to manufacture and market their products for income generation to
improve their livelihoods. It provides them credit to purchase inputs and other materials for their
better agriculture production.
Israr and Khan (2010) reported that natural capitals like land, irrigation, water and forests
in the northern Pakistan are major contributor towards livelihoods and food security. But access
to these livelihood assets is skewed which negatively affect the development of the area. So this
issue must be addressed by making sure the equal access of the rural households to these assets.
2.2.1 Linkage of Climate Change and Food Security
Chakraborty et al. (2000) concluded that climate change has a potential influence on
plant and many plant diseases arise due to this climate change which very effect the production
of crop and poses a serious threat to food security. They found that change in the level of CO2,
ozone and UV-B accelerate the disease by altering the host physiology and resistance, change
temperature, precipitation and rapidly occurring extreme events also influence plant disease
epidemiology if it is not addressed and global climate is continued in future as predicted. Their
will be negative on agriculture and food security.
Southworth et al. (2000) studied the upcoming climate change variability on maize yield
in mid western U.S. According to them hybrid maize long seasons maize varieties performed
very successful as compared to current medium and short season varieties under future climate
scenarios and increased climate variability results in considerable decrease in future maize
yields.
20
Gregory et al. (2005) concluded that food systems are directly affected by climate change
and it varies between regions and societal groups within region, and to cope with situation
improved system of food production, food distribution and economic access is needed on
sustainable basis. To alleviate the further climate change and green house gases regionally
derived policies promoting adapted food system are to be introduced to secure the livelihood of
the people.
Fischer et al. (2005) studies the socio-economic and climate change impacts on
agriculture. They concluded that climate socio-economic structures greatly affect production gap
between consumption and production both in developing and developed countries. They
suggested adoption to latest agricultural techniques will considerably reduce the damages of
climate change by making a generic consideration on the upcoming agricultural needs will help
to improve long term sustainability of food system.
Morton (2007) suggested that in developing countries subsistence and smallholder’s
farmers suffer due to critical impacts of climate change .Small farm size, tropical location and
change in socio economic condition make them vulnerable to climate change. So there is the
need to apply scientific knowledge to decrease the risk in farming and also to improve adaptive
capacity to cope efficiently with impact of changing climate on livestock and crops.
Chavas et al. (2009) argued that increasing atmospheric green house gases (GHG) induce
significant climate change, but its impact on society is still uncertain. They studied impact of
climate change on five major crops in China: canola, corn, potato, rice and winter wheat. They
found that under the enhance of CO! fertilization potential productivity is increased by 65% for
rice, 8.3 for canola,18.6% for corn, 22.9% for potato and 24.9% for wheat crop. However
without the enhanced CO! fertilization effect there is reduction in production from 2.5% to12%.
21
Doresh et al. (2010) studied the impact of floods on agriculture and food security in
Pakistan. They concluded that the flood caused heavy damage to maize crop in the mountainous
region of North West province (KPK province) which is the main cash crop of that area and
hence created a serious food security condition.
Shahbazi and Rosa (2010) observed that bioclimatic deficiency is very most important
factors which are affected by climate change and agriculture in semi-arid region is totally depend
on irrigation in west Asia, Iran. They recommend the consideration of rain fed wheat instead of
irrigated wheat so that costly tillage operation would be reduced, so effective planning and
management of and are suggested to sustain agriculture in West Asian region for current and
future events of climate change.
2.3 Climate Change and food security in Pakistan
Chaudhry and Rasool (2004) analyzed that production of wheat variability in changing
climate especially rising temperature. They concluded that rapidly increasing temperature result
in to low yield of wheat in all climatic zones .Temperature rising mean shortening crop life cycle
in all zones which accounts 4, 5, 6 and 9 days per C raise in temperature in semi arid, arid humid
and sub humid regions respectively. But only humid zone is in benefit from this as compared to
other regions.
Hussain and Mudassir (2007) assessed the future impacts of climate change on wheat
production is very critical. This study shows that climate change has different impact on different
attitude. In the mountains of Chitral wheat production is more because time to reach maturity is
less and it is possible to grow two or more crops a year but in swat valley as the optimal
temperature is exceeded soon there is decline of wheat production in that area.
22
Naheed and Rasool (2010) studied the projections of crop water requirement in Pakistan
under global warming. They said that future projects for climate shows that surface temperature
is increasing day by day and water demand for agriculture is increased. They concluded that
Pakistan southern part may be least affected in the coming decades, but in northern areas of
Pakistan small increase in the demand of water will lead to the enhanced the risk of crop failure
in rain fed areas.
Ahmad and Farooq (2010) suggested that Pakistan is agricultural country and to achieve
sustainable food security there is immediate need to concentrate on productivity of all food crops
and livestock sector rather than only focus on wheat based food security. By adopting new
agricultural technologies and by subsidizing farm households to buy inputs and by mix of farm
and on farm sectors employment they can change their livelihoods.
Rasul (2010) recommended that Himalayan mountains systems are of great importance
in South Asia. As it provide water for crops like rice and wheat which are the staple food of this
region. This region is facing daunting challenge of climate change and South Asian countries
(Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh) have their utter most concern to conserve Himalayans
ecosystem to sustain their agriculture and food production.
Overall Synthesis of the Literature Reviewed
Climate change is a global issue and the entire world is facing the impacts of climate
change. It has significant impacts on natural resources, food production and food security of the
world. Heat stress, drought and floods may lead to the reduction of livestock and crop
production. It is predicted that by the year 2080 the world temperature will rise from 2 to 4oC.
People living in different parts of the world tried to cope with the negative impacts of climate
change but due to insufficient resources and information they are unable to do cope with this
23
situation. In this situation agri. extension department by providing technical advice can play its
vital role to enable the individuals to cope with the climate change and to achieve food security
and improve livelihoods.
Pakistan is also facing the worst impacts of climate change which poses its negative impact on
the economy of Pakistan. Agriculture sector is facing worst challenge of climate change as the
livelihood and food security of farmers are disturbed by this climate change.KPK is the
mountainous region of Pakistan which is facing the impacts of climate change severly.KPK is
fragile area and people have very limited resources for their livelihoods and in this situation
climate change adds more which also push these people towards food insecurity. There is a little
information available about livelihood opportunities in the event of climate change and food
security of people living in KPK and Kaghan Valley. This study adds some empirical findings in
this knowledge gap.
24
CHAPTER 3
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The materials and methods provide a path to researcher regarding how to complete the
process of collection, analyzing and interpretation of data. The main focus of this research study
is to find out how small farmers secure their livelihoods in the realm of climate change and food
insecurity. Kaghan Valley of district Mansehra of KPK province was selected purposively
because this is mountainous area and such areas are fragile and directly affected by climate
change (Schild, 2008).Therefore, keeping in view the above situation, the present study was
designed in Kaghan Valley which consists of four union councils i.e Kaghan, Ghanool, Kawai
and Mahandhri.
3.1 Population
Kaghan Valley is situated in district Mansehra of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of
Pakistan. It has total land area of 945.47 square kilometers and have elevation of 2134 feet
(650m) to its highest point 13690 feet (4170m).Major land uses are rangelands(55.5%) ,forests
(26.6%) and agriculture consists of (6%) of the total land area of Valley. Potato, maize, wheat,
peas and other vegetables are the main crops grown in the area (Government of KPK, 2011).The
main language of this Valley Is Hindko.Kaghan Valley consists of four union councils i.e
Kaghan, Ghanool, Kawai and Mahandhri. The map of the study area is given below in the figure
3.1
25
Fig. 3.1: Map of the study area (Kaghan Valley)
26
3.1.1 Sampling
Two of four union councils (Kghan, Ghanool, Kawai and Mandhari) Kaghan and Kawai
was chosen through simple random sampling. Then from each union council three village were
selected through simple random method. From U C Kaghan three villages Kaghan Village, Lari
and Batakundi was selected by using simple random sample technique. From U C Kawai three
villages Kawai village, Paras and Bella balseri was selected by using simple random sample
technique. Later on, from each village 20 respondents were selected randomly thereby making a
sample size of 120 respondents.
3.2 Data Collection
3.2.1 Qualitative data collection
Qualitative research means “any kind of research that produces findings not arrived at by
any means of statistical procedures or other means of quantifications” and instead, the kind of
research that produces findings arrived from real world settings.
The qualitative data were collected to elucidate the quantitative data and to obtain the
holistic understanding of the problem. Following tools were used to acquire the qualitative data.
Key Informant Interviews
Key informant interview is one of the most important tools of qualitative data collection.
The data from interviews consists of direct questions from people about their experiences,
opinions, feelings and knowledge.
Following key informants were interviewed.
(i)
D G (Climate Change) Ministry of Climate Change, Govt. of Pakistan
(ii)
District Director Agriculture (Mansehra)
(iii)
Agriculture Officer
27
(iv)
Progressive Farmers
(v)
Small Farmers
(vi)
GCSIC(Global Change Impact Study Centre)
(vii) WFP (World Food Program)
(viii) SDPI (Sustainable Development Policy Institute)
(ix)
PMD (Pakistan Meteorological Department)
Personal Observations
The data from personal observations consists of detailed description of people’s
activities, behaviors, actions and the full range of interpretations.
Researcher visited the study area during the year 2011-2012.Researcher visited the study area
and collect his qualitative data by personal observations. Various useful information’s were
collected during these visits.
Life Histories
Life histories were also recorded from the respondents in order to know that how different
factors affect the individual time by time to shape his livelihood.
3.2.2 Quantitative data collection
Interview Schedule
In order to collect the household data an interview schedule was developed which was
later on pre-tested for its reliability and validity. As a result of pre-testing necessary amendments
were made to give final shape to the interview schedule.
Conducting Interview
The farmers were approached at farm and homes and information was collected in a very
pleasant and harmonious manner. Although the interview schedule was in English but interviews
28
were carried out in local and Urdu language to make it easy for communication and the required
information was obtained with maximum accuracy.
Analysis of data
The quantitative data were analyzed with the help of Statistical Package for Social
Sciences (SPSS).Descriptive analyses such as frequencies, percentage were used for
interpretation of data.
Difficulties face during data collection
1. Study area was mountainous and some of the selected villages were far away from the
main roads, so it takes too much time to reach the farmers.
2.
Due to suspicious nature and illiteracy of the farmers a lot of time had to spend in
explaining the purposive of study before them.
3. Some of the farmers provided the needed information willingly, while others were
hesitated.
4. There was also a gap of understanding between researcher and respondents, but
researcher tried his best to overcome this.
5. Sometimes respondents were unavailable so it increased transportation cost.
29
CHAPTER 4
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The general objective of this study was to understand that how people secure their livelihood in
the realm of climate change and food insecurity in Kaghan Valley. In this chapter, the results
have been discussed, analyzed and interpreted to formulate appropriate suggestions in the light of
result obtained.
Socio-economic Characteristics
4.1 Household demographics
The concept of household demographics of the farming community refers to the attributes of age,
year of schooling, currently school going and their participation in farming activities and these
factors play an important role in determining the attitude of the respondents.
Age of respondents
Age is the important factor which affects the adoption behavior of the respondents (Talebi and
Tajeddin, 2011). The respondents were asked about their own age, the age of their spouse and
that of other household male and female members including children, brothers and sisters and on
the basis of their responses they were classified in to three categories. The data regarding age of
the respondents is given in Table 4.1
30
Table 4.1: Age of the Respondents
Age Categories of head of household and spouse
Up to 35 years
35-50 years
Above 50 years
Age categories of other household members
Up to 10 years
10-25 years
Above 25 years
Head of
household
F
%
18
79
23
15
65.8
19.16
Male
33
27.5
81
67.5
39
32.5
Spouse
F
%
29
24.16
71
59.16
20
16.66
Female
27
22.5
63
52.5
36
30
Table 4.1 shows that majority (65.8%) of the head of households were between the age of 35-50
years, while 59.16% of the spouses were of age between 35-50 years and only 15% and 19.16%
of the household have age up to 35 and above 50 years respectively, while only 24.16% and
16.66% of the spouses have age up to 35 and above 50.These results shows that more than half
of the respondents were of middle aged. These results are more or less similar to Ata (2011) who
reported that half of the respondents were middle age (30-50), whereas 26.7% among them are
young (up to 30) and 23.3% are old (above 50) years.
The data in table 4.1 also revealed that among other household members majority (67.5%) of the
male were of 10-25 years of age followed by 32.5% and 27.5% of them having age above 25 and
up to 10 years, while among other female household members majority (52.5%) of the females
are 10-25 years of age followed by 30% and 22.5% of the females having age above 25 and up to
10 years. The data shows that majority of the male and female household members were young.
Youth are the productive assets for a country and according to an estimate about Pakistan youth
up to 25 years of age comprises of 60% of the total population (World Bank, 2007).But the youth
in Pakistan have to face bundle of problems like unemployment, lack of education facilities
31
especially in rural and backward areas, while on the other hand high desire of education and
employment among youth make the situation like a ticking time bomb (Yusuf, 2008).
Education
Educations plays an important role in individual’s personality development and also have a vital
role in nations building as there is strong relationship between education and economic
development (Khan,2010). So the respondents were asked about their education level and data in
this regard is presented in table 4.2.
Table 4.2: Education of the Respondents
Education
Illiterate
Primary
Middle
Matric (10)
Above matric (above 10)
Education of other household members
Illiterate
Primary
Middle
Matric
Above Matric
Currently school going
Head of household
F
%
67
33
16
4
0
55.83
27.5
13.33
3.33
0.0
Male
26
41
62
18
6
71
16.99
26.79
40.52
11.76
3.92
46.40
Spouse
F
%
104
86.66
13
10.83
3
2.5
0
0.0
0
0.0
Female
39
30.95
49
38.88
28
22.22
10
7.93
0
0.0
43
34.12
The data in table 4.2 depicted that a large majority (55.83%) of the head of households were
illiterate followed by 27% of the head of household who have only primary education and
13.33% of the respondents have education up to middle and very few (3.33%) of the respondents
have education up to matric, while a large majority (86.66%) of the spouses are illiterate while
very few (10.83% and 2.5%) of the spouses have education up to primary and middle.
32
The data in table 4.2 also reveals that among other household members majority (46.40%) of the
male were school going followed by 40.52% and 26.79% of them having education up to middle
and primary and only 11.76% and 3.92% of the male having education up to matric and above
matric, while among other female household members majority (38.88%) of the females get
education to the primary level followed by 34.12% of the females are currently school going,
while 30.95% of the females are illiterate and only 22.2% and 7.93% of the females get
education up to middle and matric level.
Therefore, it is clear that majority of the head of household and spouse are illiterate while a large
majority of male and female are currently school going but rest of them have education up to
primary and middle level. It was observed that schools are very far away from the villages and
children’s have to cover a long distance to reach to the school. Females have to face many
problems regarding education as their tradition doesn’t allow them to go to school as they get
young. Besides these there is also lack of facilities in the schools which also negatively affect the
learning of the students. The college and female high school does not exist in the valley and they
have to go top Balakot and Mansehra to get education and their parents cannot bear their
expenses. Education is very important in building capacity of rural poor to escape from poverty
and hunger by their own, but lack of education make those people more vulnerable to climate
change and food security.
33
Table 4.3: Distribution of respondents according to their participation in farming work
Participation in farming work
Yes
F
%
No
F
%
Head of household
113
94.16
7
5.83
Spouse
4
3.33
116
96.66
Other household members participation in farming work
Male
60
39.21
93
60.78
Female
0
0.0
126
100.0
The data in table 4.3 reveals that 94.16% of the head of household participate in farming work
and 96.66% of the spouses don’t take part in farming work as they were busy in their household
management, while among other household members 60.78% of the male don’t participate in
agriculture work followed by 39.21% of them who take part in agriculture work, while among
other female household members all of them never take part in agriculture work.
Table 4.4: Distribution of respondents according to their house type
Type of House
Kacha
Pacca
Semi Pacca
Total
No. of Rooms in House
1 room
2 rooms
3 rooms
More than 3
Total
F
97
6
17
120
%
80.83
5
14.16
100.0
24
83
11
2
120
20
69.16
9.16
1.66
100.0
Yes
Toilet Facility
F
113
No
%
94.1
F
7
%
5.8
34
When the respondents were asked about kind of houses they have, an over whelming population
(80.83%) told that they have kacha houses made of mud and clay. Very few respondents 5% and
14.16% told that they have pacca and semi pacca houses respectively ,while 69.16 % of the
respondents reported that their houses consists of two rooms and 20% of the respondents having
one room in their house and only few respondents (9.16% and 1.66%) have three and more than
three rooms in their house. A majority (94.1%) of the respondents have toilet facility in their
house.
Fig. 4.1: View of house in a village
35
Therefore it is clear that majority of the respondents having kacha houses and having two rooms
in their house and having toilet facility in their home. As one of the respondents said that
“I have a large family of nine individuals and my house consists of only two rooms and made of
mud and wood, it is very difficult for us to live in this house but due to lack of resources we are
forced to live in that house”
Source of Lightening
Lightening is the basic necessity of every house. In this age of modern era no work is done
without this. The respondents were further asked about the source of lightening in their houses
and data regarding this is given in Table 4.5
Table 4.5: Source of lightening in house
Never
Source of Lightening
Electricity
Gas Lamp
Candles
No Lightening
F
0
120
43
120
%
0.0
100.0
35.83
100.0
Sometimes
F
%
0
0.0
0
0.0
77
64.16
0
0.0
Frequently
F
%
120
100.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
The data in table 4.5 revealed that all of the respondents used electricity frequently for lightening
their houses and they told that they didn’t have the facility of gas in that area. A little less than
half of the population (35.83 %) told that they never use candles for lightening purpose and a
large majority (64.16 %) told that sometime they use candle. Majority of the respondents
reported that load shedding is a big problem for them as they lived in the upper highlands where
high speed winds and excessive rain often destroy their electric supply and due to lack of
resources it takes so long time to restore the service.
Source of Fuel for Cooking
The respondents were asked about their sources of cooking food and the data regarding this is
presented in Table 4.6
36
Table 4.6: Source of fuel for cooking
Never
Source of Fuel for Cooking
LPG
Electricity
Wood
Kerosene Oil
F
120
120
0
114
%
100.0
100.0
0.0
95.0
Sometimes
F
%
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
6
5.0
Frequently
F
%
0
0.0
0
0.0
120
100.0
0
0.0
The data in table 4.6 depicted that all of the respondent used wood as their main source of
cooking. Only 5.0% of the respondents used kerosene oil sometime for their cooking purpose.
This excessive use of wood for cooking purpose poses a major threat to the forest of that area
which is very valuable asset of the nature and plays an important role in the environmental
sustainability. Majority of the respondents told that they use wood not only for their cooking
purposes but also to keep themselves safe from cold in the winter season. As one of the
respondents said that
“We have to cut wood for our cooking purpose and also for fire purpose because we have no
cheaper alternative”
It has been discussed earlier that they cut the wood for their daily use very consecutively but
don’t plant trees (see table 4.10) which leads to the deforestation in the area and consequently the
people become vulnerable to climate change. Shahbaz et al., (2011) suggested that local realities
must be analyzed and local stakeholder must take into confidence to develop a sustainable forest
policy because without the careful study of the situation at village level it is impossible to
conserve forest as the livelihoods of majority of the individuals are associated with forests.
37
4.2 Climate Change: Perceptions and coping strategies
Climate change means change in the state of the climate that can be identified (IPCC, 2007). It
includes different patterns of temperature, precipitation, wind and seasons. Climate change is not
just the change in weather but it refers to as the seasonal change over a long period of time.
These climate patterns not only play a vital role in constructing the natural ecosystem but
livelihoods and economic return of people are also depended on this (Rasool, 2010).
The knowledge, perceptions and coping strategies of the respondents regarding climate change
are discussed in the following sections.
4.2.1 Knowledge of the respondents
Farmer’s knowledge and experience about climate change is of great importance which allows
them to cope with the negative impacts of climate (Newsham and Thomas, 2011). Information
regarding the awareness of farmers about climate change was obtained, which is presented in
Table 4.7
Table 4.7: Knowledge of respondents about Climate change
Awareness about Climate Change
Do you feel any climate change in your area
Had you ever heard about climate change
Yes
F
%
102
85
43 35.83
No
F
18
77
%
15
64.16
The data given in table 4.7 indicates that an over whelming majority of the population (85%)
reported that their area is under the effect of climate change while about (64.16%) of respondents
were never heard about climate change. As one of the respondents stated
“We are suffering from the uncertain pattern of climate, which negatively affects our livelihood.
Climate patterns are not consistent as it was moderate decades before.”
However, it would be important to mention that majority of the respondents never heard from
outside sources about climate change, its impact and coping strategies etc. Those respondents
38
who have heard about climate change were further asked that from which media they heard
about climate change and data regarding this is given below.
Table 4.8: Source of information about climate change
Source
Radio
Television
Newspaper
NGO,s
Government
Fellow Farmers
Not Heard
Total
F
19
4
0
3
4
3
77
120
%
15.83
3.33
0.0
2.5
2.5
11.66
64.16
100.0
The data presented in table 4.8 shows that almost (15.83%) of respondents get information
regarding climate change from radio following by (12%) of the respondents who heard about
climate change through fellow farmers and very low majority of respondents know about climate
change from television ,Govt. and NGO’s (3.33,2.5 and 2.5%) respectively. The respondents
suggested that different program related to weather update and climate change should be
broadcasted on radio so that they can cope with climate change.
The role of Govt. sector and NGOs was reported as negligible in this regard. However these
agencies have resources to educate the farmers about consequences of climate change.
4.2.2 Perception of respondents about climate change
The respondents were further asked about their perceptions about climate change. The data about
perceptions of respondents about climate change is presented in Table 4.9
39
Table 4.9: Distribution of respondents according to their perception about Climate change
Perceptions
Fear
Disbelief
Confused
Angry
Helpless
Hopeful
No Response
Total
F
29
3
58
3
12
8
7
120
%
24.16
2.5
48.33
2.5
10
6.66
5.83
100.0
The data depicted in table 4.9 narrated that majority of the population (48.33%) were confused
about climate change and didn’t have any idea regarding uncertainty of climate. Slightly less
than one fourth of the respondents (24.16%) reported fear of climate change and thought about
different coping strategies against climate change. Very few respondents (10%) were found
helpless and negligible percentage of respondent (6.66%) was hopeful about climate change.
Typical comments of the respondents was
“We are very confused about the uncertain pattern of climate and facing problems due to this as
climate is getting harsh day by day”
In a recent study Martin (2012) found that the farmers of Kaghan valley are facing many climatic
challenges like deforestation, drought, high temperature and unusual rainfall and yet majority of
them not able to understand how to cope with these challenges. Patossari (2007) reported that
small farmers are very vulnerable to climate change as they have very limited resources to cope
with climate change. According to them conservation of forest and planting trees can play a
significant role in order to cope with climatic extremes.
40
Fig 4.2: View of clouds over the valley
4.3.3 Adaptation Strategies
The study area was mountainous and resources were very limited for the people of that area.
Adaptation is about building resilience and reduces vulnerability of people who are facing many
climatic events which disturb their livelihood time by time (GLCA, 2009). So, different
adaptation strategies were being adapted by the respondents which are discussed below.
41
Table 4.10: Adaptation strategies of respondents
Adaptation Strategy
Plant trees
Stop cutting trees
Store water
Use less water
Shift from crop to livestock
Shift from single to multiple crop
Yes
F
22
10
0
3
6
83
No
%
18.33
8.33
0.0
2.5
5.0
69.16
F
98
110
120
117
114
39
%
81.66
91.66
100.0
97.5
95.0
32.5
When participants were asked about the strategies which they adopt to keep them safe from the
negative effects of climate change. A large majority (69.16%) reported that they start growing
multiple crops like wheat maize, potato, peas in one field in order to cope with climate change,
while (18.33%) of the respondents plant trees as much as they can. Only (8.33%) of respondents
stopped cutting tree as they need wood for cooking and fire purpose and very few respondents
(5.0%) said that they had shifted from crop to livestock. One of the respondents said that
“Climate change posed a worse bad on our agriculture. Increased temperature, heavy
precipitation and long duration of winter caused many diseases, delay harvesting and sowing
and ultimately decrease our yield”.
However, a majority has shifted from single to multiple crops in order to cope with climatic
extremes. However, the land holding in this area is very small and if their crop destroys by the
climatic extremes it will be extremely difficult for them to sustain their livelihoods. As Martin
(2012) explained that in the upper Kaghan Valley farmer’s plant potato, and peas along with
maize in their fields while in lower part of valley farmers grow beans, walnuts and vegetables
along with wheat and maize.
Though the results are contradictory from the farmers perceptions as the majority of the
respondents feel that the climate of the area is changing and also majority of them get confused
due to this climate change but the majority of the population (91.66%) don’t stop cutting trees
42
which is really alarming. An over whelming majority (81.66%) of the respondents reported that
they had never planted trees in their area, and if this trend is going on it will be cause a major
problem to their resources and results in to climatic extremes. Similarly trend of water storage is
nil and very few respondents told that they use less water .There is need to create awareness
about water conservation.
4.4.4 Climate Trend Analysis
Kaghan Valley lies in the easternmost part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It covers the adjoining area
of Kunhar River and is characterized by high mountains. The climate of valley is sub-humid to
humid. There is the different climate pattern of the valley which shows a significant variability
over the area. So, the data about temperature and rainfall of past 50 years is collected from
Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Rainfall
In this section pattern of precipitation is discussed. In Kaghan Valley annual precipitation
amount are very extreme and vary all over the valley. The graph has shown the precipitation
pattern over the valley for last five decades.
43
Annual
Mean
Rainfall
Figure 4.3- Annual mean precipitation averaged over Kaghan Valley (Source: PMD, 2012)
The course of precipitation during last five decades shows a significant variability. From 1961
onward there is continuously increase in the annual precipitation. Annual rainfall of 1961 is
about 1100mm but suddenly in the next decade (1971-80) there is the rising trend of rainfall and
maximum rainfall is recorded which is 1800mm.In the next coming years the annual amount of
rainfall become slightly decreased which is recorded as 1600mm in 1981-90 and 1500mm from
1991-2000.But from the period of 2001-2010 the amount of rainfall is again gradually get rise
which is recorded as 16200mm.In nut shell there is the constant variation of precipitation over
the last 50 years in Kaghan Valley. Since there is decreasing trend of precipitation from 19712000 but from 2001 onward the precipitation is keep on increasing which lead to flood and other
climatic extremes.
44
Temperature
The data regarding temperature over kaghan valley of last 50 years is collected from Pakistan
Metrological Department in order to analyze the temperature variability over the area. The data
collected is presented in graphical form below.
Annual Mean Temp.
Figure 4.4-Annual mean Temperature averaged over Kaghan Valley (Source: PMD, 2012)
The data in figure 4.4 revealed that there is a significant variability of temperature. The annual
mean temperature of the decade 1961-1970 is 24.6oC. Then in the coming years the temperature
was rose which is recorded as 24.8oC for year 1971-80 and 24.9oC for year 1981-90.But there is
sudden decrease of temperature in the decade 1991-2000 and the annual mean temperature fall to
23.8oC. In the first decade of 21st century there is considerably increase of annual mean
temperature over the area which is recorded as 25.5oC. Since there is gradual rise of temperature
from 1961, the temperature get down in the last decade of 20th century. But in the next coming
years the temperature increased and become hot over the Valley and this increase of temperature
was mainly due to many factors like deforestation, emission of green house gases, rainfall, which
results into different climatic events and negatively affect the livelihood of the people (Martin,
45
2012). During a key informant interview with Chief Meteorologist of Pakistan Metrological
Department it was found that Pakistan is very vulnerable to climate change and this climate
change is due to natural resources degradation and human activities which results in rising
temperature, irregular rainfall, floods and drought. Forests which play an important role in
regulating the environment is not in adequate amount in the country and its proportion is
decreasing day by day, however KPK province which has very huge forest area is under the cruel
hands of timber mafia. Efforts should be made towards planting trees in order to reduce pollution
and to reduce the negative impacts of climate change.
4.3.1 Farmers Perceptions about Climate Pattern
The respondents were asked about their observations about different climatic indicators and the
data regarding this is presented in table 4.11
46
Table 4.11: Distribution of respondent’s according to their perceptions about climate
pattern
Climate
indicator
During the last 5 years
1
2
3
%
%
Temperature
0.0
Rain
4
Last 10 years
Last 20 years
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
% %
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
0.0
0.0
31.66
68.33
0.0
0.0
23.33
58.33
18.33
80
15
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
24.16
75.83
0.0
0.0
28.33
55
16.66
68.33
17.5
11.66
2.5
0.0
Snow
0.0
0.0
0.0
64.16
35.83
0.0
0.0
17.5
69.16
13.33
55
26.66
15
3.33
0.0
Floods
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.66
88.33
80.83
11.66
0.0
7.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
85
15
Deforestation
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.66
93.33
0.0
0.0
85
6.66
8.33
92.5
5
2.5
0.0
0.0
Earthquake
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
77.5
16.66
5.83
0.0
0.0
Water
shortage
Duration of
summer
Duration of
winter
0.0
0.0
0.0
82.5
17.5
27.5
0.0
56.66
15.83
0.0
88.33
11.66
0.0
0.0
0.0
60
30.83
0.0
9.16
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
90
10
0.0
0.0
0.0
84.16
15.83
0.0
0.0
0.0
85.83
14.16
0.0
3.33
96.66
0.0
0.0
93.33
6.66
0.0
0.0
0.0
Scale: 1= Decreased 2= Decreased a lot 3= Same 4= Increased 5= Increased a lot
The data in table 4.11 reveals that 68.33% of the respondents told that temperature is increased a
lot in last 5 years followed by 58.33% of the respondents who said that there was also increase in
temperature 10 years before, while 80% and of the respondents said that 20 years before
temperature was decreased as compared to today’s temperature, a large majority (75.83% and
64.16%) of the respondents said that rainfall and snow is also increased in last 5 years and 55%
and 69.16% of the respondents said that 10 years before there was also increase in precipitation
and snow, while 68.33% and 55% of the respondents reported that 20 years before amount of
rainfall and snow was less. An overwhelming majority (93.33%) of the respondent’s told that in
47
last 5 years there is a significant increase in deforestation and 85% of the respondents said that
same was the situation of deforestation 10 years before, while 92.5% of the respondents reported
that there was significant decrease in deforestation 20 years before. All of the respondents
reported that earthquakes are increased in last 5 years and same was the 10 years before and
77.5% of the respondents said that 20 years before earthquakes were very rare. A large majority
(82.5% and 85.83%) of the respondents reported that there is increase in water shortage and
duration of winter season in last 5 years and 56.66% and 96.66% of the respondents said that
same was the situation 10 years before, while 88.33% and 93.33% of the respondents reported
that 20 years before there was no water shortage and duration of winter was also moderate.
It is clear that temperature in increasing sharply by time as it was moderate a decade before and
same was the pattern of rainfall which is keep on increasing day by day which results in failure
of crops and disturbs the livelihood of the people (Sadaat and Saifulislam,2011). Amount of
snow is also increased as it was in moderate amount some years before which results into the
migration of the people and increase in winter duration. Earthquakes are also become frequent
which creates fear among the people and these earthquake also dry the streams and damage the
infrastructure which results into shortage of water.
4.3.2 Coping Strategies
People living in the mountainous areas have long been vulnerable to seasonal climatic variability
and shocks and their livelihood is greatly disturbed by this as they have very limited options to
cope with these events. So the data regarding different coping strategies adopted by the
respondent in the event of climatic extremes is given in table 4.12
48
Table 4.12: Coping strategies against climatic extremes
Coping strategy
Use drought resistant varieties
Change in cropping pattern
Crop rotation
Forest conservation
Planting of trees
Heat/moisture tolerant varieties
Water storage
Migration
Access to weather forecast
Increased land area
Food storage
Inducting new land for cultivation
Yes
F
6
12
91
10
22
23
0
67
33
12
120
26
No
%
5.0
10.0
75.83
8.33
18.33
19.16
0.0
55.83
27.5
10.0
100.0
21.66
F
114
106
27
110
98
95
120
53
87
105
0
92
%
95.0
88.33
22.5
91.66
81.66
79.16
100.0
44.16
72.5
87.5
0.0
76.66
The table 4.12 depicted that total 100% of the respondents store food as their most important
priority in order to cope with the negative impact of climate extremes, followed by 75.83% of the
respondents who reported that they adopt crop rotation by replacing wheat with vegetables and
maize with potato and vegetables in order to cope with climatic extremes, while 55.83% of the
respondent migrate to the lower areas to make themselves safe from the event of climatic
extremes. All 100% of the respondents said that they never store water and 95% of the
respondents reported that they never used drought resistant varieties to cope with the negative
impacts of climate. About 91% of the respondent reported that they don’t conserve forest to
reduce the impact of climate change and they cut the trees more rapidly for their daily use.
The above mentioned results show that food storage is the main coping strategy which is adapted
by the respondents. Most of the respondents said that they usually store food in the winter season
because in those areas winter is very severe due to heavy snow and rainfall and migration is also
taken place of the people in this severe winter climate as the livelihood options become very low
in these areas. It is very stunning situation that the climate change severely effect the livelihoods
49
of the people but they don’t put their efforts to conserve forest and plant trees in order to regulate
the environment so there is need to empower local institution in the perspective of participatory
forest management system and a relationship of trust must be developed between authorities and
local stakeholders (Shahbaz and Ali, 2009).
4.4 State of food security
4.4.1 Food Availability
Food availability is one of the most important stakes among the three pillars of food security.
Pakistan is an agricultural country and availability of food is based a lot on that. However,
agricultural growth dependents on many natural and manmade factors. As the population is
growing day by day, there is a lot of pressure on agriculture sector to provide the food to the
growing population (Suleri and Haq, 2009).
Source of Drinking Water for Household
Water is the basic necessity of every house. It is not only used for drinking but also for many
household purposes like bathing, washing of clothes etc. So, the respondents were asked about
their source of water for their household and the data is given in Table 4.13
Table 4.13: Source of Water
Source of Drinking Water
Public piped water
Pond/lake water
Rain water
Never
F
%
21
17.5
19
15.83
120
100.0
Sometimes
F
%
0
0.0
90
75.0
0
0.0
Frequently
F
%
99
82.5
11
9.1
0
0.0
The data in table 4.13 Indicated that an over whelming majority (82.5%) of population used
public piped water for daily use and very few respondents 17.5% told that they are not enjoying
50
this facility. A considerable population 75% of respondents sometime uses pond/lake water when
public piped water is not available and very few 9.1% people use pond/lake water frequently and
all of the respondents reported that they never use rain water. A majority of respondent said that
public piped water is a very good facility provided to us because before that we have to go
outside to for fetching water for their daily use. As many small lakes and a river run throughout
the valley which provides very fresh and pure water and majority of the respondents use this
water for their drinking purpose.
When the respondents were further asked about the distance of water source from their house
majority of the responded reported that it is 15-20 minutes walk which is approximately 0.5km to
collect water from lake. While there are only few of them who told that it takes 30-40 minutes
for them to collect water and have to travel approximately 1.5km of distance.
Farm Animals
According to WFP (2010) livestock plays an important role in household food security especially
in the state when crops gat failed it is the only alternative for the farmers to sustain their
livelihoods. So, the respondents were asked about the farm animals they had and the data about
this is described below
Table 4.14: Farm animals of respondents
Yes
No
Farm animals
Poultry (chicken)
Goat
Sheep
Bull
Cow
Donkey
F
65
78
27
2
29
12
%
F
54.16 55
65
42
22.5 93
1.66 118
24.16 91
10
108
%
45.83
35
77.5
98.33
75.83
90
Quantity
Up to 3
3-6
F
%
F
%
40 33.33 18
15
61 50.83 14 11.66
24
20
3
2.5
2
1.66 0
0.0
27 22.5 2 1.66
12
10
0
0.0
Above 6
F
%
7 5.83
3 2.5
0 0.0
0 0.0
0 0.0
0 0.0
51
When interviewer asked about farm animals and their numbers it was found that a large majority
(65%) of the respondents rare goats and almost half of them (50.83%) have 3 goats, few
respondents have 3-6 goats and above 6 goats 11.66% and 2.5% respectively. Half of the
respondents (54.16%) rare poultry and about one third (33.33%) have 3 chickens, 15% have 3-6
numbers of chicken and only 5.83% of the respondents have more than 6 chickens.
It was further discovered that only 24.16% of the respondents possess cows out of which 22.5%
have 3 cows and only 1.66 % of them have up to 6 cows. However, only few respondents (10%
and 2%) have donkey and bull while 22.5% of the respondents have sheep as their farm animals
respectively. These results are more or less similar to those of Tareen (2011) who found that
19% of the respondents have cows, 37% of have goats and only 31% of the respondents have
sheep including in their farm animals. Nevertheless many respondents described difficulties in
rearing the farm animals. As one of the farmer commented
“It is very difficult to rare farm animals because we have very small landholding and we are
unable grow fodder for them, while the feed available in market is very expensive and we are
unable to purchase that”
The respondents suggested that there must be cheap and fast growing varieties of fodder
provided to us so that we will b able to feed our animals and in this regard livestock department
have to play its role in livestock development in the valley.
52
Fig. 4.5 Farm animals at household level
Land Ownership
Agriculture plays an important role to meet the challenges of global climate change and food
security which need good management of natural resources. Land play a significant role in
agricultural production and its improper management can negatively affect the livelihoods of
people and food security (Gunnell et al., 2005).
53
Fig 4.6 View of wheat grown in the field
FAO (2002) defined land ownership as relationship among people, societies or groups with
respect to land. It refers to as the property right of land to individual within the society. In
Pakistan land tenure is categorized as tenant, owner and owner-cum-tenants. So, the data
regarding tenancy status of the respondents is described in Table 4.15
Table 4.15: Land ownership of respondents
Land ownership
Tenant
Owner
Owner-cum-tenant
Yes
F
33
57
30
%
27.5
47.5
25.0
54
Table 4.15 revealed that nearly (47.5%) of the respondents had their own land, while 27.5% of
the respondents were tenants and only 25.0% of them were owner-cum-tenants. These results are
more or less similar to the Tareen, (2011) who founded that 28.33% of the respondents were
owner, followed by 27.5% and 25.0% of the respondents were tenant and owner-cum-tenant.
Area under cultivation
Land under cultivation is important factor in determining the cropping pattern and agricultural
situation in the area. It is generally believed that farmers having large land holding can take risks
and they have better access towards agricultural information. Therefore, data regarding land
holding of the respondents were collected which is given in Table 4.16
Table 4.16: Distribution of respondents according to their area under cultivation
Area under cultivation
Up to 3 Kanals
3-6 Kanals
6-10 Kanals
Above 10 Kanals
Total
F
40
63
11
6
120
%
33.33
52.5
9.16
5
100.0
The people of the mountainous area have very small landholdings and generally terrace farming
is practiced in these areas and data in table 4.16 shows that more than half (52.5%) of the
respondents had 3-6 kanals of landholding, 33.33% of the respondents had landholdings up to 3
kanals, while only 9.16% and 5% of the respondents had 6-10 and above 10 kanals of
landholding. These results show that the farmers in the study area have very small holding
capacity which is not enough for their total dependence on agriculture.
Respondents were further asked about the crops which they have grown in different cropping
season. The data regarding this is given in table 4.17
55
Table 4.17: Distribution of crops grown by respondents in different cropping season
Rabi Season Crops grown
Wheat
Vegetables
Both
No crop grown
Kharif Season crops grown
Maize
Potato
Vegetables
All above
No crop grown
F
31
23
49
16
%
25.83
19.16
40.83
13.33
16
51
19
34
0
13.33
42.5
15.83
28.33
0.0
The data in table 4.17 reveals that majority (40.83%) of the respondents grow both wheat and
vegetables in Rabi season, while 25.83% and 19.16% of the respondents grow only wheat and
vegetables in Rabi season and very few (13.33%) of the respondents reported that they don’t
grow anything in their field during Rabi season.
On the other hand 42.5% of the respondents reported that they only grow potato in their field
during Kharif season and 28.33% of the respondents told that they grow all the three crops
(Maize, Potato and Vegetables) in their field, while 15.83% and 13.33% of the respondents
reported that they grow only vegetables and maize in their field during Kharif season.
The above results reveals that in rabi season farmers grow both vegetables and wheat in their
field while few of the respondents don’t grow anything in their field during Rabi season because
in Rabi season there is severe winter and heavy snow which destroy their crops.
One of the respondents told that
“We have faced severe crop loss in Rabi season due to heavy snow and rainfall”
However in kharif season majority of the farmers grow potato in their field as it is the main cash
crop of the area while all the three crops maize, potato and vegetables are also grown by few
respondents in their fields.
56
One of the respondents reported that
“Potato is the only crop which gives a good economic return to the farmers”
Crop Seed
Seeds are the most important input in all crop based agriculture and acquisition of seed is a key
element of farmer’s response towards agricultural production and food security (Badstue,
2007).Therefore, the data regarding acquisition of seed by the respondents is presented in Table
14.18
Table 4.18: Distribution of respondents according to their seed acquisition
Crop
group
Purchased
F
%
Cereals
82 68.33
Cash crops 95 79.16
Fruits
120 100.0
Vegetables 111 92.5
Source of crop seed
Exchange
Gift
Reserved
with
from
from
farmers relatives
previous
harvest
F
%
F %
F
%
0
0
0
3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
38
25
0
0
31.66
20.83
0.0
0.0
Received
from
NGOs
Received
from Govt.
F
%
F
%
0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
Seed is the foundation of agriculture. As the agriculture is modernized day by day but without a
good quality of seed it is all in vain and agricultural production will be decreased. The data in
table 14.18 depicted that a large majority (68.33%, 79.16%, 100.0% and 92.5%) of the
respondents purchased the seeds of cereals, cash crops, fruits and vegetables and sow in their
land, while only 31.66% and 20.83% of the respondents reported that they use seeds of cereals
and other cash crops from their previous harvest and only 2.5% of the respondents get vegetables
seeds from fellow farmers.
The respondents were further asked about the percentage of seed spoiled and the data regarding
this is given in table 4.19
57
Table 4.19: Distribution of respondents according to their perception about seed spoiled
Crop group
Seed spoiled
Up to 5 percent
5-10
F
Cereals
Cash crops
Fruits
Vegetables
31
66
118
112
%
25.83
55
98.33
93.33
F
21
18
2
5
10-20
%
17.5
15
1.66
4.16
F
18
9
0
0
%
15
7.5
0.0
0.0
More than 20
F
12
2
0
0
%
10
1.66
0.0
0.0
Table 4.19 shows that 98.33%,93.33%,55% and 25.83% of the respondents reported that they
have only 5 percent of the seed spoiled of fruits, vegetables cash crops and cereals followed by
17.5% and 15% of the respondents who said that they have 5-10 percent of seed spoil ratio of
cereals and crops, while 15% and 7.5% of the respondents facing 10-20 percent of seed spoil
ratio of cereals and cash crops and very less of the respondents 10% said that their more than
20% seed spoiled of cereals. The results show that respondents are facing seed spoiling situation
only in case of cereals and cash crops and mostly are those respondents who have preserved the
seed from previous harvest while there is very low amount of seed spoiling ratio in fruits and
vegetables as they purchased it from the market at the time of sowing.
Fertilizer application
Fertilizer is a precious source which plays an important role in agricultural production which is
necessary for reducing food insecurity (TFI, 2011).So the respondents were asked about the use
of fertilizer in their fields and the information about fertilizer application is presented in table
4.20
Table 4.20: Distribution of respondents according to fertilizer use
Fertilizer
Natural
Chemical
Both
F
3
21
83
%
2.5
17.5
69.16
58
When the respondents were asked about the use of fertilizer an overwhelming majority (89.16%)
of the respondents reported that they use fertilizer in their fields, while the data presented in table
4.20 revealed that a large majority (69.16%) of the respondents use both natural and chemical
fertilizer and only 17.5% and 2.5% of the respondents use chemical and natural fertilizer.
Household Fruit trees
The respondents were asked about the household fruit trees and their responses is recorded in
table 4.21
Table 4.21: Distribution of respondents according to household fruit trees
Fruit Trees
Nil
Up to 3
3-6
More than 6
F
69
35
12
4
%
57.5
29.16
10
3.33
The data in table 4.21 depicted that a large majority (57.5%) of the respondents had no fruit trees
in the household, while 29.16% of the respondents have up to 3 fruit trees. Very few of the
respondents 10% and 3.33% had 3-6 and more than 6 fruit trees in their household. It was
observed that majority of the respondents had walnut, pears and apple trees in their household
and during discussion it was revealed that due to lack of resources and negative impacts of
climate are the problems which resist the planting of trees. Most of the respondents said that the
fruit which they get from the trees they sell that fruit in market and get some income and don’t
kept some of the fruit for their home use. As, one of the respondent told that
“We sell fruit in the market and get income from this”
59
4.4.2 Access to food
It refers to as the household ability to acquire food which mainly depends on the purchasing
power of the household, household food expenditure and consumption pattern (Suleri and Haq,
2009).The household access towards food is discussed under following sections.
Livelihood Strategies
Livelihood diversification is an important source of income for rural community and plays a
significant role in reducing food insecurity and poverty. Ellis (2000) defined livelihood
diversification as “Process by which rural households construct an increasingly diverse portfolio
of activities and assets in order to survive and to improve their living standards”. The data in
table 4.22 represents the livelihood activities.
Table 4.22: Major (primary) livelihood activity and income from that activity
Major livelihood
activity
F
%
Food crop production
Livestock
Unskilled wage
labour
Skilled labour
Remittances
Employment (salary)
Govt. Allowances
Private business
(Shop etc.)
19
0
38
Average monthly Income from these activities
<5000
50001000015000More
10000
15000
20000
than
20000
F
%
F
%
F
%
F %
F
%
15.83 19 100.0 0
0.0
0 0.0
0 0.0 0
0.0
0.0
0 0.0
0
0.0
0 0.0
0 0.0 0
0.0
31.66 23 60.52 15 39.47 0 0.0
0 0.0 0
0.0
11
24
8
0
15
9.16
20.0
6.66
0.0
12.5
6
2
0
0
4
54.54
8.33
0.0
0.0
26.66
5
15
0
0
11
45.45
62.5
0.0
0.0
73.33
0
7
0
0
0
0.0
29.16
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0
5
0
0
0.0
0.0
62.5
0.0
0.0
0
0
3
0
0
0.0
0.0
37.5
0.0
0.0
The data presented in table 4.22 revealed that 31.66% of the respondents had unskilled wage
labor as their major livelihood activity among them 60.52% of the respondents said that they
earn less than Rs.5000 per month through this activity while 39.47% of the respondents earn
5000-10000 per month through unskilled wage labor, followed by 20% of the respondents who
60
rely on remittances as their major livelihood activity and among them 62.5% of the respondents
have monthly income of Rs 5000-10000 through this activity is and nearly 15.83% of the
respondents reported that food crop production is their major livelihood activity and all of them
have less than Rs 5000 average monthly income. Only 12.5%, 9.16% and 6.66% of the
respondents have private business, skilled labor and employment as their major livelihood
activity.
It is clear that unskilled wage labor is the major livelihood activity of the respondents as shown
in the figure given below.
Fig.4.7 Major Livelihood activity of respondents in the study area
During discussion with local farmer it was revealed that due to extreme weather in winter they
have to move to lower areas like Mansehra and do labor to sustain their livelihoods.
“In the winter I and my family move to lower area like Mansehra and I do labor in order to meet
the dietary needs of my family. It is very hard time for us as we have no other source of income
and this daily wage labor depends a lot on my health”
61
Das gupta (2012) concluded that in coastal areas of Bangladesh people are now doing non-farm
jobs as the arable land is considerably decrease due to climate change. Majority of them migrate
to other places in order to find jobs to sustain their livelihoods. One of the respondents said that
“Agriculture sector is not able to meet our needs as the prices are going up day by day
and due to this economic pressure we do daily wage labor in order to meet our daily household
needs”.
Table 4.23: Secondary livelihood activity and income from that activity
Secondary livelihood
activity
Food crop production
Livestock
Unskilled wage labour
Skilled labour
Remittances
Employment
Govt. Allowances
Private business (Shop etc.)
F
24
7
21
16
36
3
0
13
%
20.0
5.83
17.5
13.33
30.0
2.5
0.0
10.83
Average monthly Income from these activities
<5000
50001000015000More
10000
15000
20000
than
20000
F
%
F
%
F %
F %
F
%
24 100.0 0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
7
100.0 0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
16 76.19 5
23.80 0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
9
56.25 7
43.75 0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
14 38.88 22
61.11 0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
0
0.0
3
100.0 0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
11 84.61 2
15.38 0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
The data in table 4.23 depicted that 30% of the respondents had remittances as their secondary
source of livelihood activity, among them 61.11% of the respondents reported that their monthly
income through remittances is ranges between 5000-10000 while 38.88% of the respondents
have income Rs.>5000 per month through remittances, followed by 20% of the respondents who
reported that food crop production is their secondary source of livelihood and all of them have
less than Rs.5000 average income per month. Only 17.5%, 13.33%, 5.87% and 2.5% of the
respondents reported unskilled wage labor, skilled labor, livestock and employment as their
secondary source of livelihood.
62
Fig.4.8 Secondary livelihood activity of respondents in the study area
Table 4.24: Tertiary livelihood activity and income from that activity
Tertiary livelihood activity
Food crop production
Livestock
Unskilled wage labour
Skilled labour
Remittances
Employment
Govt. Allowances
Private business (Shop etc.)
F
47
36
7
12
6
4
0
8
%
39.16
30.0
5.83
10.0
5.0
3.33
0.0
6.66
Average monthly Income from these activities
<5000
50001000015000More
10000
15000
20000
than
20000
F
%
F
%
F %
F %
F
%
47 100.0 0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
36 100.0 0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
7
100.0 0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
10 83.33 2
16.66 0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
6
100.0 0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
4
100.0 0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
4
100.0 0
0.0
0
0.0 0
0.0 0
0.0
The data in table 4.24 narrated that 39.16% of the respondents had the food crop production as
their tertiary livelihood activity and all of the respondents said that they had less than Rs.5000
average income through this activity, while 30% of the respondents reported that livestock is
their tertiary source of income and all of them said that they have less than Rs.5000 average
income per month through this activity. Only 10%, 6.66%, 5.83%, 5% and 3.33% of the
63
respondents reported that skilled labor, private business (shops), unskilled wage labor,
remittances and employment as their tertiary sources of livelihood.
Fig.4.9 Tertiary livelihood activity of respondents in the study area#
Access to Loan
The respondents were asked about the source of acquisition of loans and the data regarding their
access towards loan is discussed in Table 4.25
Table 4.25: Distribution of respondents according to their access to borrow money
Source
Relatives
NGOs
Shopkeepers
Bank
F
33
0
67
0
%
27.96
0.0
68.13
0.0
All of the respondents reported that they had access to borrow money as the table 4.25 shows
that 68.13% of the respondents get loans through shopkeepers in the form of grocery and other
household items while only 27.96% of the respondents acquired loan through their relatives. As
one of the respondents reported
64
“ We get the grocery and other household items from the shopkeeper on credit and pay him at
the beginning of the next month or even some times we pay our debt to shopkeeper after two or
three months when we earn money”
Household food expenditure
Food insecurity is a worldwide problem posing a great threat to people’s health, production and
even their survival. Besides the efforts to overcome this situation it is necessary to measure the
household access to food. Therefore, data regarding household expenditure on food is recorded
which is presented in Table 4.26
65
Table 4.26: Household Expenditure of the respondents
Crop
group
Expenditure during last 1
month (Rs.)
Up to 600
60010001000
1500
F
%
F
%
F
Total
F
%
% of income spent on these during last 1
month
Up to
20-30
30-40
20percent
%
F
%
F
%
F
Total
F
%
%
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Vegetables
Bread
Meat
Eggs
Ghee
Sugar
Milk
Education
Medical
Clothing
6
120
109
54
120
120
120
118
120
120
77
115
120
5.0
100.0
90.83
45.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
98.33
100.0
100.0
64.1
95.83
100.0
12
0
11
66
0
0
0
2
0
0
31
5
0
10.0
0.0
9.16
55.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.66
0.0
0.0
25.0
4.16
0.0
102
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
85.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
19
120
120
97
120
120
120
0
120
120
120
120
120
15.83
100.0
100.0
80.83
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
97
0
0
23
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
80.83
0.0
0.0
19.16
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3.33
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Utility bills
Social
events
120
120
100.0
100.0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0.0
120
120
100.0
100.0
120
120
100.0
100.0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0.0
120
120
100.0
100.0
66
The data in table 4.26 reveals that a large majority (85%) of the respondents spent Rs.1000-1500
to purchased wheat which accounts 20-30% of total income of 97% of the respondents, while
55% of the respondents reported that they spent Rs.600-1000 to purchase vegetables for their
household consumption and among them 97% of the respondents said that it accounts up to 20%
of the total income, while 19.16% of respondents spent 20-30% of their total monthly income on
purchasing vegetables. It was also revealed that 25% of respondents spent monthly up to Rs.600
on the education of their children, while 64.1% among them spent up to Rs. 600-1000 on the
education of their children which accounts up to 20% of all the respondents monthly income and
95.83% of the respondents spent up to Rs. 600 on their health which is about 20% of their
monthly income, while all of the respondents reported that they spend up to Rs.600 monthly on
the purchase of maize, bread, meat, eggs, sugar, milk, clothing, utility bills and social events
which accounts up to 20% of their total monthly income and 98.83% and 90.83% of the
respondents spent up to Rs. 600 on the purchase of ghee and rice which is 20% of their monthly
income. However it is clear that an over whelming majority of the respondent spent a large
portion of their income to buy wheat and vegetables which are the basic necessity of every
household. As the food prices are getting high day by day it is very difficult for the rural poor to
afford as their sources of income are very limited (SDPI, 2003). Due to low income people
reduce there expenditure on health and education as they can only afford basic items like cereals
and vegetables. During discussion with the respondents it was revealed that their monthly
household expenditure exceeds from their monthly income and in this case they have to borrow
money to meet the household food requirements.
Household food consumption pattern
The data regarding house hold food consumption is presented in table 4.27
67
Table 4.27: Household food consumption pattern of the respondents
Crop
group
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Vegetables
Bread
Meat
Eggs
Ghee
Sugar
Milk
Milk
products
No. of days eaten in past 7 days
Not
1 day 2 days
eaten
F % F % F %
3
4 days
5
6 days
days
days
F % F % F % F %
0
0
0
0
43
17
73
0
0
106
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
35
14
60
0.0
0.0
88
0.0
0
0
2
0
71
103
20
0
0
14
0
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.0
59
85
16
0.0
0.0
11
0.0
0
117
118
0
6
0
27
0
0
0
0
0.0
97
98
0.0
5
0.0
22
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
116
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
96
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7 days
F
%
4
0
0
120
0
0
0
120
120
0
120
3.3
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
Main source of acquisition of food
for past 7 days
Not
Purchased
Own
eaten
production
F %
F
%
F
%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
117
104
120
107
120
120
101
120
120
116
120
97.5
86.66
100.0
89.16
100.0
100.0
84.1
100.0
100.0
96
100.0
3
16
0
13
0
0
19
0
0
4
0
2.5
13.33
0.0
10.8
0.0
0.0
15.8
0.0
0.0
3.3
0.0
68
The data in table 4.27 narrated that 96% of the respondents consumed wheat 6 days in a week
and among them 97.5% of the respondents purchased wheat for their household consumption
followed by maize which is consumed 2 days in a week by 97% of the respondents and among
them 86.66% of the respondents purchased maize for their household consumption, while
vegetables, ghee, sugar and milk products were consumed 7 days a week by all of the
respondents and all of the respondents purchased these items from market for their daily use.
Rice is also consumed 2 days in a week by all of the respondents and all of them purchased it
from the shop. It was also reported that 85% and 59% of the respondents consumed meat and
bread 1 day in a week and all of them purchased these from the market.
Therefore, it is clear that wheat is consumed 6 days a week by majority of the respondents
followed by vegetables, ghee, sugar and milk products which were consumed by the respondents
7 days a week and majority of the respondents purchased these food items from market. It was
revealed that majority of the people have no balanced diet as they have don’t consume meat,
milk, eggs and pulses in a proper way and this improper diet results into lack of nutrients which
leads them towards malnutrition (SDPI,2003).
4.4.3 Food absorption
Food absorption is the third pillar of food security and is important factor for good human health
(Suleri and Haq, 2009).The indicators used to assess food absorption are clean water, sanitation,
medical facility and female education and respondents were asked about these indicators and the
data regarding this is given in table 4.28
69
Table 4.28: Perceptions of respondents about indicators of food absorption
Facilities
Clean water
Sanitation
Medical facility
Female education
Never
To some extent
To a great extent
F
%
F
%
F
%
0
35
53
49
0.0
29.16
44.16
40.83
4
77
67
71
3.33
64.16
55.83
59.16
116
8
0
0
96.66
6.66
0.0
0.0
The data presented in table 4.28 shows that an overwhelming majority (96.66%) of the
respondents reported that they are drinking pure and clean water every time, while 64.16% of the
respondents said that the sanitation facility in their area is not very adequate, followed by
59.16% and 55.83% of the respondents who reported that the female education and medical
facility is not sufficient in their area. About 44.16% of the respondents said that they have very
poor medical facility, while 40.83% and 29.16% of the respondents said that female education
and sanitation facility is very worse in their area. As majority of the respondents argued that
“The medical facility is not very satisfactory in our area and we have to go to lower areas like
Balakot and Mansehra to attain the medical facility, which is not affordable for us”
It was observed that medical facility is very poor in the valley as there is no hospital in the entire
valley, only small dispensaries are working in the valley and the tehsil hospital is located in
Balakot and people have to travel approximately 155km to reach the hospital. There are no
qualified doctors in the dispensaries working in the valley and it was also revealed there is also
lack of medical stores in the valley and people have to go to lower areas like Balakot and
Mansehra to purchase the medicine.
70
4.4.4 Shocks and food security
Unexpected crises events causes a serious threat to food security especially in the developing
world as they had very limited resources to cope with that situation especially in the situation of
unstable environmental factors and individuals vulnerability to these factors (Alinovi et al.,
2009).The respondents were asked about the shocks which they have during last one year and its
impact on their food security and the data regarding this is given in table 4.29
Table 4.29: Shocks faced during last one year
Problems due to
climate change
Never
F
To some extent
%
Drought
27
22.5
Landslides/erosion
12
10
Crop pests and diseases
2
1.66
Floods
10
8.33
Excessive rain
4
3.33
More snow
6
5
Problems other than climate change
High food prices
10
8.33
High cost of agri inputs
14
11.66
Reduced income
30
25
Insecurity/Violence
111
92.5
Death of a working
119
99.16
household member
To a great extent
F
%
F
%
54
51
17
76
47
63
45.0
42.5
14.16
63.33
39.16
52.16
39
57
101
34
69
21
32.5
47.5
84.1
28.33
57.5
42.5
6
37
63
8
1
5
30.83
52.5
6.66
0.83
104
69
27
1
0
86.16
57.5
22.5
0.83
0.0
Climatic factors posed a great disturbance to the livelihood of the people as the data in table 4.29
narrated that 84.1% of the respondents said that they are faced severe attack of crop pests and
diseases which destroyed their crop completely, which is mainly due to high rainfall as reported
by 57.5% of the respondents who told that rainfall caused many diseases to crops and the spray is
no more affective and it also effected their daily routine life, followed by landslides and erosion
which was reported by 47.5% of the respondents, as a major threat to their livelihood and food
security and they are suffering to a great extent by this. About 63.33% of the respondents said
71
that floods also caused a threat to some extent to their household food security and 52.16% of the
respondents said that heavy snow in winter also have its negative impact to some extent. Senbeta
(2009) concluded that drought, unusual rainfall and rising temperature are the challenges which
are faced by the peoples of West Ari zone of Ethiopia. The people are very vulnerable to climate
change and this vulnerability becomes more intensify due to unaffordability of agricultural
inputs, unemployment, landless and water shortage.
When the respondents were asked about the factors other than climate which negatively affect
their household food security a large majority (86.16%) of the respondents said that rapid
increase of food prices posed a great threat to their household food security, followed by 57.5%
of the respondents who reported that high cost of agri. inputs don’t allow them to adopt modern
agri. technology and increase their crop yield.
The results revealed that both climatic and non-climatic factors posed a great threat to the food
security of the respondents in which crop diseases, heavy rainfall and high prices of food and
agri. inputs are the major reported factors which negatively affect the household food security.
4.4.5 Coping strategy in case of food shortage
Coping strategy is the strategically act that is applied by an individual or household in poor socio
economic condition use to restrict their expense or earn extra income in order to make
themselves enable to fulfill their basic requirements (Snel and Staring, 2001).So the respondents
were asked about their coping strategies in the event of food shortage and table 4.30 indicates
their coping strategies
72
Table 4.30: Coping strategies against food shortage
Coping Strategy
Rely on less expensive and less preferred food
Borrowed food/Helped by relatives
Purchased food on credit
Consumed seed stock held for next season
Reduced proportion of meal for all
Adults ate less so that children can eat
Reduced No. of meals /day
Skipped days without eating
Reduced expenditure on health and education
Spent savings
Borrowed money
Sold household articles (jewellery)
Sold household furniture
Sold agricultural tools, seeds etc.
Sold household poultry, birds etc.
Sold big animals (Cows, oxen bull etc.)
Sold land
Never
F
%
5
32
79
99
94
85
61
46
24
18
3
46
113
105
78
57
90
4.16
26.66
65.83
82.5
78.33
70.83
50.83
38.33
20.0
15.0
2.5
38.33
94.16
87.5
65.0
47.5
75.0
Sometimes
F
28
48
33
15
17
26
51
60
87
33
25
74
7
7
22
37
16
Mostly
%
F
%
23.33
40.0
27.5
12.5
14.16
21.66
42.5
50.0
72.5
27.5
20.83
61.66
5.83
5.83
18.33
30.87
13.33
85
38
4
7
7
6
12
7
67
90
92
0
8
18
21
12
12
70.83
31.66
3.33
5.83
5.83
5.0
10.0
5.83
55.83
75.0
76.66
0.0
6.66
15.0
17.5
10.0
10.0
Table 4.30 reveals that an over whelming majority (76.66% and 75%) of the respondents
borrowed money and spent their savings to cope with the food shortage, while 70.83% of the
respondents rely on less expensive food to a great extent in the event of food shortage and 72.5%
of the respondents said that they reduce their expenditure on health and education to some extent
in order to meet their dietary needs and 61.66% of the respondents said that they sold their
jewelry which make them able to cope with hunger to some extent and about half of the majority
(50%) of respondents said that they even skipped days without eating in the event of food
shortage, while 75% of the respondents said that they never sold their land in order to cope with
food shortage. One of the respondents said that
73
“ I have family of 8 individuals and I am a laborer and have 3 kanals of agri land but many
times me and my family have to face hunger situation and I borrowed money from the
shopkeeper and relatives and this debt make me depress every time as my income is even not
enough to fulfill my monthly expenditure and I have no alternative to return the debt”
This situation is not only of one individual but majority of the population of that area is facing
this challenge, while talking to the respondent’s majority of them reported that
“We are facing the food shortage situation very frequently as we have very limited livelihood
opportunities and the climatic events like floods, drought rainfall etc adds more”
Therefore, it is clear that people rely on less expensive and cheap food in order to cope with food
shortage and they also borrowed money and spent their savings in the situation of food shortage.
Mjonono (2009) concluded that low agriculture production limits the opportunities for income
generation and in this situation households have to borrow money, spent their savings and rely
on less expensive food to sustain their livelihood in the event of food shortage. It was also
reported that people reduce their expenditure on health and education in order to fulfill their
dietary needs because without food it is impossible to do anything. Selling of household articles
is also a coping strategy which was adapted by the people to cope within the food shortage. In a
key informant interview with Senior Research Associate, SDPI, it was revealed that food
security situation in Pakistan is very worse and due to high food prices and low income people
are getting food insecure day by day. About half of the population of Pakistan is food insecure
which is very intimidating situation. Government of Pakistan is recently launched National Zero
Hunger program in collaboration with World Food Program (WFP) and under this five year
project that would provide relief to the 61 million food insecure individuals and it cost 16 billion
US dollars. In this regard wheat provided by Government of Pakistan will be converted into
74
nutritious food and will be provided to primary children’s, pregnant women and malnourished
children’s who are the most vulnerable part of the society.
4.5 Patterns of livelihoods
Most of the population living in rural and mountainous areas is very poor and facing
environmental degradation. So the peoples of these areas diversify their livelihood strategy by
involving themselves in different on-farm and off-farm activities (Iiyama,2006).Respondents
were asked about the different livelihoods strategies adopted by them time by time to sustain
their livelihoods and data in this regard is presented in table 4.31
75
Table 4.31: Jobs of different family members
Demographics
Present
1
Head of
household
Son
Brother
2
Past 5 years
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
F
21
%
17.5
F
86
%
71.66
F
13
%
10.83
F
0
%
0.0
F
39
%
32.5
F
71
%
59.1
F
10
%
8.3
F
0
%
0.0
F
67
%
55.83
F
48
%
40
F
5
%
4.1
F
0
%
0.0
15
7
11.3
33
49
11
37.12
52.8
27
3
20.45
14.2
41
0
31
0
23
7
17.4
33
41
11
31
52.8
20
3
15.15
14.2
48
0
36.36
0.0
29
12
21.96
57.1
37
4
28.0
19.0
16
2
12.12
9.5
50
3
37.87
14.2
Demographics
Future 5 years!
1
2
3
Total
4
F
%
F
%
F
%
F
%
F
%
15
12.5
101
84.16
4
3.3
0
0.0
!"#$
!##$
Son
11
8.3
57
43.1
37 28.0
27
20.4
!%"$
!##$
Brother
3
14.2
6
28.5
11 52.8
0
0.0
"!$
!##$
Head of
Past 10 years
household
1=Farming
2=Both farming and labor
3=Both farming and job
4=Education
76
The data in table 4.31 reveals that majority (71.66%) of the head of household presently both
doing farming and labor and only 17.5% among them is only doing farming, while in past 5
years 59.1% of the respondents were involved in both farming and labor and 32.5% of the
respondents were only doing farming 5 years before, however 10 years before a large majority
(55.83%) of head of household were only doing farming as their livelihood activity and 40% of
the head of household were doing both farming and labor 10 years before. An over whelming
majority of the head of household reported that in coming 5 years they will do both farming and
labor to secure their livelihoods. Among other household members a large majority (37.12%) of
sons are currently involved in both farming and labor followed by 31% of the sons were student
and only get education, while 5 years before 36.36% of the sons were getting education and 31%
were doing both farming and labor, while 10 years before 37.87% of the sons were getting
education and 28% were doing both farming and labor, however in future 5 years 43.1% of the
sons want to do both farming and labor followed by 28% of the sons who want to do both
farming and job as their livelihood activity. A large majority (52.8%) of brothers of head of
household was presently involved in both farming and labor and 33% of the brothers of head of
household were only doing farming and same was their livelihood activities 5 years before, while
10 years before 57.1% of the brothers were only doing farming but in future 5 years 52.8% of the
brothers of head of household want to do both job and farming.
Therefore it is clear that majority of the respondents were shifted from single to multiple
livelihood activities. An overwhelming population is now doing both farming and labor in order
to meet their household needs. During discussion with it was revealed that due to climate change
and limited resources they don’t rely on farming alone as their crop production is considerably
77
keep on decreasing for last many years. This livelihood diversification allows them to cope
against climate change and to sustain their livelihood and household food security.
4.5.1 Life histories:
Life histories are very important to know that how multiple factors affect the individual or
household time by time and how it draw a livelihood pathway. This approach is very useful as it
provides insights in social process and is more useful match to quantitative survey approach
(Dhunpath and Samuel, 2009).So the life stories of different respondents are presented below.
I. Interview with Baba Asar Ali (83 years old) from the village Bella Balseri Paras
“My past times was very precious to me, we lived in a small house. We were 5 brothers and 2
sisters. My father was a farmer and he has 6 kanals of land. He planted maize in the field and we
had apple trees in our field. We ate maize as our staple food and also sold it in the market. We
had livestock in our house and we had milk and milk products from that which is quit enough for
us. Climate was very moderate and we received rainfall when there is need of crop. There was
very heavy snow at that time which gave us water in summer. School was very far away from our
house and we had to walk hours to reach our school. As I got young I left the school and spend
my time with my parents in field and take care of livestock. Then I go to Karachi and start doing
labor as at that time I got married and expenses are increased and I have the responsibility of
the house. I spend my 20 years in Karachi and work in different companies as laborer. Then I
came back to my village and made my own house and buy some land and started farming.
Climate has changed a lot and there is very irregular pattern of rainfall. I also made a grocery
shop in my village. As the time passed and prices are getting high day by day it is very difficult to
achieve household food security. There is no saving now a day as it was years before at my time.
78
Now my sons are doing their job and business and my one son is living with me and he is now
running the shop and takes care of agriculture.
II. Interview with Malik Khushal (62 years old) from Lari Village
“Crops and livestock was the main source of livelihood for me and my family in the past times. I
start participating in agriculture activity when I was 10 years of age. We were 5 brothers and
sisters. I sow wheat, maize and masoor in our field. Then I also started sowing potato in my
field. Climate was very moderate in the past times. We never worried about the irrigation issue
of our crops. The rainfall was in very moderate ratio and temperature was also very reasonable.
There was no major household expenditure and agriculture is fulfilling our expenditure. But as
the time pass we felt that temperature is getting on rise slowly and rainfall pattern is starting
disturbing slowly, and our production start decreasing. That was very harsh time for me and my
family then me I sold my livestock because I was not able to rare them. Then I started labor and
purchased a Jeep and started driving and tried to fulfill the household expenditure. Then this
routine is going on and on and by the time agricultural income had become very low because
climate is no more moderate, now there is more landslides, sometime heavy rainfall and some
time no rainfall, temperature increased and in this situation floods adds more.
III. Interview with Riaz (58 years old) from Batakundi Village
“I was doing farming for a long time when I was a child as it was the only option for us. I was
having a large number of livestock which was not only fulfilling our needs but we also sometimes
sell it. My village was very far away from the town and it was about a 2 hours walk. I was also
having agriculture land which is not only the source of income but we also have vegetables,
fruits and flour from our own agriculture land. Then as the time passed our agriculture
production started decreasing due to many factors. Most important among them are climatic
79
factor and rising prices. Climate becomes very severe as we entered in the 21st century and there
are considerable changes in climate pattern. When our wheat is at germination stage and there
is a desperate need of water then there is no rainfall and when it’s the harvesting time then there
is rainfall in very excessive amount and at the end we have nothing in hand as our yield is very
low. As the agriculture is not more able to fulfill my household expenditure I start working as
laborer. Now it is the main livelihood activity for me and I am keep on doing it as my health
permits me.
Therefore, it is clear from the qualitative interviews that in past there is a huge dependence on
farming as the weather was very favorable and moderate which results in to better crop and
livestock production but as the time passes weather become un-favorable and people started to
depend more on livestock because due to low yield in becomes impossible to feed the livestock.
People adopt diverse livelihood activities like migration to lower areas and other parts of the
country to do labor and to earn money to sustain their livelihoods. Majority of them came back to
their native houses after spending lot of years in doing different jobs and start farming with other
livelihood activity like making a Jeep and shops. These multiple livelihood activities allow them
to cope against the daunting challenge of their household food security.
4.6 Role of agri. extension services in the event of climate change and climatic extreme
Agriculture extension plays an important role in mobilizing the community to cope against the
negative impacts of climate change. The respondents were asked about their source of agriculture
information and the data is given in Table 4.32
80
Table 4.32: Perceptions of respondents according to their source of agri. Information
Source
Agriculture department
Radio
Television
Fellow farmers
Newspaper
Never
Sometimes
Frequently
F
%
F
%
F
%
75
29
95
12
114
62.5
24.16
79.16
10.0
95.0
33
50
19
15
6
27.5
41.66
15.83
12.5
5.0
12
4
4
91
0
10.0
2.5
3.33
75.83
0.0
The data in table 4.32 explained that fellow farmers were the most frequent source of agriculture
information of the respondents, while 41.66% of the respondent said that they get agri.
Information from the radio sometimes, followed by the 27.5% of the respondent who reported
that they get agri. information through agriculture department not on the regular basis. A lot of
the majority (95%) of the respondents said that they never use newspaper to get agriculture
information followed by the 79.16% of the respondents who never get agri. Information through
television. One of the respondents told
“I get most of the agriculture and other climate update from my fellow farmers as the
government officials have no concern with our condition”
4.6.1 Services provided by agri. extension department
The respondents were further asked about the services provided by the agriculture extension
department and the data in this regard is presented in table 4.33
Table 4.33: Perceptions of respondents about agri. extension department
Services
Agri. officer visits you regularly
Update you regarding latest agri. technology
Provide you climate resistant varieties
Guide you to cope against climatic extremes
Agree
F
%
20
16.66
17
14.16
12
10.0
11
9.16
Disagree
F
%
98
81.66
101 84.16
106 88.33
107 89.16
81
According to the respondents agriculture extension department fails to provides facilities to the
farmers as the data in table 4.33 shows that a large majority of the respondents (89.16% and
88.33%) reported that agri. extension officials never guide us how to cope against climatic
extremes and never provides us climate resistant varieties so that we can somehow or the other
sustain our production in the event of climate change. The results get more interesting when a
overwhelming majority (84.16% and 81.66%) of the respondent reported that agri. extension
officer don’t update them about latest agriculture technology and don’t visit them regularly.
During qualitative interview one of the respondents told
“Agriculture extension officer never visited our area since a long time and I even don’t know his
name and office”
During key informant interview with District Director Agriculture it was found that due to lack
of resources it becomes difficult for an agri. extension officer to visit the farmers at their door
steps. However, efforts are made to enhance the agriculture production in the area by introducing
new varieties of seeds, improved agricultural practices and demonstration plots and by
organizing farmer’s days.
4.6.2 Services provided by forest department
The respondents were further asked about the services provided by forest department and the
data regarding this is presented in table 4.34
Table 4.34: Perceptions of respondents about forest department
Services
Forest officer visits you regularly
Forest dept. Motivate you about planting trees
Provide you planting material
Yes
F
78
71
41
%
65.0
59.16
34.16
No
F
40
47
79
%
33.33
39.16
65.83
82
The data in table 4.34 depicted that a large majority of the respondents said that forest officers
visit us regularly and about 59.16% of the respondents reported that they motivate us to plant
trees in order to conserve forest but an overwhelming majority (65.83%) of the respondents said
that the forest department never provides them planting material so that they can plant trees. As
majority of the respondent said that
“We can put our efforts to conserve forest and planting trees if forest department collaborate
with us and provide us planting material. We are not in the position to buy good quality planting
material as we have no resources in this regard”
Forest plays an important role in regulating the environment and adaptation to climate change.
Forests can also have a central role in protection of soil, water, conversion of biodiversity,
livelihood support, poverty reduction, economic development and food security (FAO,
2010).Therefore, good forest management practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation
is very necessary in future to attain food security. Wattoo et al. (2010) concluded that forest
department with local beneficiaries can play an important role in conservation of forest.
Involving of local communities in decision making process and by developing consensus with
local stake holders is very beneficial in forest management.
83
CHAPTER 5
SUMMARY
Climate change is not just change in the weather but it refers to as the seasonal changes over a
long period of time. The climate patterns not only play a significant role in constructing natural
ecosystem but also the human economies, culture and livelihoods are governed by this. It has a
very negative impact on the livelihoods of the people especially the small farmers who have very
limited resources to cope with the negative effects of climate change. Adaptation to climate
change is difficult for the people living in marginalized mountainous area with variable
temperature, rainfall and snow. It is predicted that world temperature is going to rise from 20 to
40 C by the year 2080.Pakistan is an agricultural country and 67% of the population living in the
rural areas is associated with agriculture. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) is the province of
Pakistan and its large area consists of mountains, where terrace farming is practiced and due to
lack of adequate resources (water, land) and negative impacts of climate change and climate
extremes agriculture production is very low. Rising temperature and irregular pattern of rainfall
and snow have its worse impacts on livelihoods of small farmers which is posing a great threat to
their household food security. In Kaghan Valley a large majority of the people migrate to lower
areas in order to keep them safe from the severe climate which disturbs their livelihood pattern in
a negative way. Keeping in view the above facts present study was designed to analyze how
small farmers cope with climate change and secures their livelihoods to attain food security and
how agriculture extension can help farmers to cope against climatic extremes in Kaghan Valley.
Two of four union councils were chosen randomly through simple random sampling method then
from each union council three villages were selected by simple random method. Later on, from
each village twenty respondents were selected randomly thereby making a sample size of 120
respondents. Quantitative data was collected by well structured interview schedule while
84
qualitative data were also collected by key informants and open ended interview guide. Life
histories were also recorded in this regard. The data was analyzed with the help of Statistical
Package for Social Sciences (SPSS).
5.1 Findings
5.1.1 Socio-Economic Characteristics
About 65.8% of the head of household were of 35-50 years of age and majority (59.16%)
of spouse was also having age between 35-50 years. Among other household members
67.5% of males were having age between 10-25 years, while 52.5% of the females were
having age between 10-25 years. Majority (55.83%) of the head of household were illiterate
and a significant majority (86.66%) of the spouses were also illiterate, while among other
household members 46.40% of the male are school going and among other female household
members 38.88% of the females get only primary education.
A large majority (80.83%) of the respondents were having kacha houses and 69.16% of
the respondents were having 2 rooms in their houses, while 94.1% of the respondents having
toilet facility in their houses. All of the respondents used electricity frequently for the
lightening of their house and all of the respondents used wood as a source of fuel for
cooking. A large majority (68.13%) of the respondents reported that borrow money from
shopkeeper in the form of grocery and other household items.
5.1.2 Climate Change
A large majority (85%) of the respondents reported that there is climate change in their
area, while 64.16% of the respondents never heard about the climate change, its impacts and
coping strategies from outside sources. Only 15.83% of the respondents heard about climate
85
change through radio. About 48.33% of the respondents told that they were confused about
uncertain pattern of climate.
An overwhelming majority (67.5%) reported that they had stated growing different crops
In order to cope with climate change, while 18.33% of the respondents said that they plant
trees followed by 8.33% who reported that they stop cutting to cope with climate change. In
past there was extensive farming in the area which was the major livelihood activity of the
people but with the passage of time people shifted from farming to other livelihood activities
like labor because crop production becomes very low due to climate change.
Temperature is increased sharply by the by the passage of time as it was moderate
decades before and amount of rainfall is also increased by the time which results in the
failure of crops and disturbs the livelihood of the people. In order to cope against climate
change all of the respondents store food to cope against climate change and usually they store
food in winter season, while majority (75.83%) of the respondents reported that they
implement crop rotation to cope with the harmful impacts of climate change, however
55.83% of the respondents migrate to lower areas to keep them safe from the negative
impacts of climatic extremes.
There is a significant variation of rainfall in the area in last 50 years, but from 2001 to
onward there is considerable increase in rainfall over the area. There is also slight increase of
temperature is recorded over the valley which is now keep on increasing as the time passes.
86
5.1.3 State of Food Security
About 82.5% of the respondents have the facility of public piped water for their
household use An overwhelming majority (65%) of the respondents having goat and 50.83%
among them were having up to 3 no. of goats, while 54.1% of the respondents were having
poultry (chicken) in their household and 33.33% of the respondents were having up to 3 no.
of poultry (chicken).Only 24.16% of the respondents having cow as their farm animal.
About 47.5% of the respondents were having land ownership and 52.5% of the
respondents were having 3-6 kanals of land under cultivation. Majority (40.83) of the
respondents grow both wheat and vegetables in Rabi season, while in Kharif season 42.5% of
the respondents grow potato in their field which is a main cash crop of the Valley. A large
majority (69.16%) of the respondents used both natural and chemical fertilizer in their fields,
while an overwhelming majority (57.5%) of the respondents had no fruit trees in their
households and only 29.16% of the respondents had up to 3 fruit trees in their households.
Unskilled wage labor is the primary livelihood activity of majority (31.66%) of the
respondents and among them 60.52% of the respondents earn less than Rs. 5000 and 39.47%
among them earn Rs. 5000-10000 per month. About 30% of the respondents reported that
remittances is their secondary source of livelihood and among them 61.11% of the
respondents reported that their income through remittances ranges from Rs. 5000-10000 per
month, while majority (39.16%) of the respondents reported that food crop production is
their tertiary livelihood activity and all of the respondents told that they earn less than
Rs.5000 per month through food crop production.
A large majority (85%) of the respondents spent 20-30% of their monthly income in
purchase of wheat, while 80% of the respondents spent up to 20% of their monthly income
87
on purchasing of vegetables. Wheat, vegetables and ghee were the most consumable items by
the households and 97.5% of the respondents purchased wheat from the market, while all the
respondents purchased vegetables and ghee from the market.
Climate change has its negative impacts on the livelihoods of the people as majority
(84.1%) of the respondents reported that severe attack of crop pests and diseases had
destroyed their crops and 57.5% of the respondents reported that excessive rainfall also have
very negative impacts on their livelihood, while on the other hand other than climatic factors
a significant majority (86.16%) of the respondents reported that continuously increasing food
prices results in deteriorating the household food security.
A large majority (76.66% and 75%) of the respondents borrowed money and spent their
savings in order to cope with food shortage, while 72.5% of the respondents reported that
they reduce their expenditure on health and education in case of food shortage and 70.83% of
the respondents told that they rely on less expensive food to cope with food shortage.
An overwhelming majority (96.66%) of the respondents have access to drinking water,
while 64.16%, 59.16% and 55.83% of the respondents reported that sanitation, female
education and medical facility is not adequate in the Valley and they are suffering very due to
lack of these facilities.
5.1.4 Role of Agri. Extension
A large majority (75.83%) of the respondents reported that they get agriculture
information through fellow farmers, while an overwhelming majority (89.16%) of the
respondents reported that agri. extension department don’t guide them to cope against
climate change, however significant majority of the respondents reported that forest officer
88
visit them regularly and about 59.16% of the respondent told that they motivate us about
planting trees.
Suggestions
! There is need to provide awareness to the people about the climate change and how to
cope against the changing climate through agri. extension services, radio and other
awareness campaigns.
! Tress must be planted to conserve forest and peoples should have to be motivated to
use alternate resources and stop cutting of trees for their household use.
! It is necessary to provide education and medical facilities to the people of Valley as
there are no adequate facilities of medical and education and people have to go far
away for this.
! There is need to introduce climate resistance varieties to the farmers to enhance
agricultural production which plays an important role in achieving food security.
! There is need to protect natural resources and also need to create diverse livelihood
opportunities for the people to secure their livelihoods.
! There is need to activate the agri. extension department to play its vital role in
assisting farmers to conserve their agriculture in the scenario of climate change to
sustain their livelihood and food security.
89
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!References
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