Download Greater Accra Climate and Disaster Risk Mitigation

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Policy Dialogue on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction
Greater Accra Climate and Disaster Risk Mitigation Strategy and
Investment Planning
Terms of Reference
Date: September 26, 2016
Background
1. The World Bank has committed to scale up support to Ghana by supporting the
development and implementation of country-led, multi-sector plans and investments for
managing climate and disaster risks. The World Bank’s International Development
Association (IDA) deputies recognized in the 17th replenishment document “the urgent
need and increasing demand from IDA countries to reduce the vulnerability of their people,
assets, livelihoods and economies to climate related risks”. This commitment to foster
climate and disaster resilient development is - among others – to be addressed through the
following policy action: “Scale up support to IDA countries to develop and implement
country-led, multi-sector plans and investments for managing climate and disaster risk in
development”. In 2014 Ghana was nominated as one of the countries in Africa to develop
such a multi sector investment framework in line with the IDA17 commitments on climate
change and disaster risk reduction. It is expected that this investment frameworks would
be prepared in 2016 and would guide investment lending under IDA18. Development
partners have expressed their interest to contribute to such an Enhancing urban resilience
and city strength. The Greater Accra Climate Risk Mitigation Strategy is a part of the IDA17
Policy Dialogue on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction and aims at
preparing a diagnostic on climate resilient urban development in Greater Accra
Metropolitan Area (GAMA).
2. Ghana has taken proactive steps with a well-developed national climate and disaster risk
management policy (National Climate Change Policy (NCCP)) and an associated action plan.
The second phase of NCCP, the Ghana National Climate Change Policy Action Program for
Implementation: 2015 – 2020, presents a budgeted implementation program by sector for
the ten focus areas of the policy. It is estimated to cost US$ 9.3 billion over 2015-20. For the
climate negotiations in Paris the government of Ghana presented the Indicative Nationally
Determined Contributions (INDC), which summarizes priority actions for the following 5 to
10 years related to mitigation and adaptation. INDC proposed a funding need for mitigation
and adaptation for more than US$ 22 billion. The policy actions for adaptation of the INDC
include: (i) Agriculture and Resilience Building in Climate Vulnerable Landscapes, (ii) Value
Addition based use of forest resources, (iii) City Wide Resilient Infrastructure Planning, (iv)
Early Warning and Disaster Prevention, (v) Managing Climate Induced Health Risks, (vi)
Integrated Water Resources Management, (vii) Resilience of Gender and the Vulnerable.
This study will support evidence-based decision-making on specific investment choices for
implementing the INDC on the scale of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) region.
3. The assignment builds upon the ongoing and completed technical assistance financed by
the Government of Ghana, The World Bank and other partners. With this regard it makes
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reference to (i) the Enhancing Urban Resilience in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area,
which supported the CityStrength diagnostic for GAMA in 2016, (ii) the Integrated Urban
Sanitation and Drainage Master Plan for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, which is
financed through the GAMA Water and Sanitation Project (iii) the Ghana Urbanization
Review, (iv) the Ghana Disaster Risk Management Country Plan and other related projects
like the Community Resilience through Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Project, which is
supported by UNDP. The consultants will make reference to these reports and will build
upon their specific findings.
Objectives
4. The objective of the Greater Accra Climate Risk Mitigation Strategy is to support evidence
based decision-making and investment planning for climate risk mitigation in Greater Accra
based upon objective assessment of the cities’ climate hazards, vulnerabilities and
exposure. The strategy will provide guidance to decision makers on concrete climate
adaptation investments within GAMA in line with the overall priorities defined in the INDC
and NCCP.
Project Steering Committee
5. To ensure coherence with the ongoing policy dialogue on climate change adaption,
disaster risk reduction and resilient urban development, the assignment would be
supported and guided by a project steering committee. The steering committee for this
project consists of the National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO), Ministry of
Environment, Technology, Science and Innovation (MESTI), Environmental Protection
Authority (EPA), National Development Planning Commission (NDPC), Ministry of Local
Government and Rural Development (MLGRD), Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning
(MOFEP) and Ministry of Water Resources, Works and Housing (MWRWH); The project
steering committee will provide guidance to the assignment and support the review of the
draft deliverables. More specifically, the steering committee would provide guidance to this
assignment in the context of the climate change and disaster risk reduction policy
development and implementation of the NCCP, the NCCP Implementation Plan of Action and
the INDC. Furthermore, the steering committee would ensure coherence with the broader
urban development and spatial planning agenda for GAMA as well as planned and ongoing
investments drainage and flood risk management.
Approach and tasks
6. The Greater Accra Climate Risk Mitigation Strategy will build on the many studies and
assessments related to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Ghana and
greater Accra specifically and will follow three specific areas of the assessment:
(i)
Risk Assessment: The risk assessment will provide an objective basis on the flood,
coastal erosion and sea level rise hazard, vulnerability and exposure of the population,
infrastructure and economic assets to climate risks in greater Accra.
(ii) Decision support and investment planning: Identification of potential investments for
mitigating climate risks in greater Accra in line with investment priorities of Ghana’s
INDC, supporting evidence based decision making based on objective criteria
including cost benefit analysis for different investment scenarios;
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(iii) Stakeholder engagement: Consultation with key stakeholders and community
engagement in greater Accra on flood management and potential investments;
7. The consultants will collect and review existing data, studies, master plans and other key
data related to urban drainage, flood-, disaster management, urban and spatial planning
available for GAMA.
i. Previous Studies: The consultants shall review all existing studies developed for the
GAMA in relation to urban drainage, flood, Sea Level Rise, disaster risk management,
urban and spatial planning existing master-plans, and any related studies of urban
waters such as sanitation, solid waste, and environment. The assessment will
particularly build upon the following studies:
o Flood risk assessment of the Integrated Urban Sanitation and Drainage Master
Plan for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area;
o City Strength Diagnostic for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area
o Flood risk maps for Accra Metropolitan Assembly prepared by the Community
Resilience through Early Warning Systems (CREWS) project;
o Economic impacts of climate change modeling carried out as a part of IDA-17
Dialogue on Climate and Disaster Risk Management Multisectoral Plan
o Poverty and disaster exposure pilot study based on the SWIFT methodology.
ii.
Spatial data: The consultants will review existing spatial information on the drainage
network, flood hazard, coastal erosion and sea level rise. The consultants will develop
a simple geo-information database to facilitate the sharing of spatial information with
the project and with relevant stakeholders.
iii.
The main layers required by the study are: (a) topography (scale 1:25,000, 50.000,
based on availability), (b) recent satellite image of the area in order to assess the urban
occupation/land use patterns; (c) identification of rainfall data, mainly pluviograph
where it is possible to have rainfall distribution; existing rainfall intensity duration
curves and the period of data use in its development; (d) household surveys;
iv.
Projects, plans and programs: The consultants will identify any projects, plans, and
programs developed and under development in the area.
v.
Institutions and Legislation: The consultants will identify the institutions and its
objectives, organization and employees; Identification of the legislations related to
urban development, drainage and environment.
8. Risk Assessment: The objective of the “spatial analysis” is to obtain information about the
spatial relationship between natural hazards as well as population, land use, and economic
assets and their vulnerability and exposure to natural hazards. The probabilistic risk
assessment will depart from existing assessments of flood hazards in greater Accra and will
determine the separated and combined risk of flooding, coastal erosion, inundation, sea
level rise combining existing assessment data with a new spatial analysis. The risk
assessment will cover the following elements:
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Hazards
Probability
Exposure
Probability
Vulnerability
Value
Consequences
Disaster risk management capacity
Figure: Elements of the risk assessment (derived from Messner and Meyer, 2005)
i. Spatial Analysis: Hazards, probability, exposure and vulnerability
The spatial analysis will build upon the under point 7 mentioned data, reports and plans to
identify potential hotspots and risk areas illustrating type and degree of vulnerability for
the different risk categories and scales of risk. The spatial analysis include but is not limited
to flooding and sea level rise, will provide the following information in form of maps, tables
and reports:
a.
Separate and combined multi- hazard maps for greater Accra;
b. Built-up areas exposed to climate risk: general characterization of the urban land use
(i.e. residential, industrial/commercial, etc.) including type of vulnerability;
c.
Non-built-up areas exposed to climate risk including but not limited to Sea Level Rise,
Flooding: general characterization of the land use, topography, and soil, including type
of vulnerability;
d. Exposure maps and information related to areas of population growth (past and
projected);
e.
Hot spots maps identifying areas and communities of high risk and exposure (land
value, population and climate risks);
f.
Projected risks considering climate change scenarios and population growth
projections;
ii. Valuation of assets and livelihoods at risk: In addition to the spatial analysis the
consultants will conduct an estimation of the economic value of assets at risk of flooding
using remote sensing, as well as relevant mapping and survey techniques. The consultants
will therefore specify an appropriate methodology for the mapping and valuation of the
existing housing, infrastructure and related assets, e.g. based on the estimation of current
land and property value and replacement value for the partial and total reconstruction of
buildings and infrastructure. This valuation will build upon the already completed valuation
for the Accra Metropolitan Assembly. The consultants will base the assessment on
publically available information and conduct required surveys and mapping exercises in
greater Accra. Information on the spatial relationship between poverty and exposure to
natural hazards is currently being compiled using the SWIFT methodology based on
extensive household surveys in GAMA. The assessment will benefit from the results of the
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study to determine the spatial linkages between poverty, livelihoods and exposure to
natural hazards in GAMA.
iii. Assessment of the historic costs of floods in Greater Accra: Accra has repeatedly been hit
by severe flooding, but lacks any information on the costs of these events with regard to the
estimated damages for different sectors of the economy as well as humanitarian expenses
provided by the national government (NADMO) and the MMDAs. The consultants will make
an estimation of the historic damages for the 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014 floods in greater
Accra for the infrastructure, social and productive sectors based on the definitions and
methodology spelled out as Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology (DALA).
iv. Damage curves: Based on the spatial analysis, valuation of assets and historic costs, the
consultants will compute the expected annual damage (separate and combined) for
flooding, sea level rise and coastal erosion hazards for different return periods (1:10 years,
1:25 years, 1:50 years, 1:100 years). Information will be provided in the form of damage
curves, illustrated for different areas of GAMA.
9. Investment planning and decision support: The consultants will determine required
investments for mitigating climate and disaster risks in greater Accra in line with the policy
actions of Ghana’s INDC, the National Climate Change Policy, the National Climate Change
Adaptation Strategy and relevant sector strategies of the government. The consultants will
consider existing and pipeline investment while proposing new investments for disaster
and climate risk reduction.
i. The consultants will provide at least five investment scenarios, with a general cost
estimation based on similar investments in Ghana and the region as well as global best
practice. The investment plan will provide cost estimates and detailed planning scenarios
infrastructure investments to reduce the risk of flooding for flood events with a return
period of 1: 10 years, 1: 25 years, 1: 50 years and 1: 100 years. The investment scenarios
will provide a costed overview of investments to mitigate existing and future climate risks
identified in the spatial analysis.
ii. The assessment will provide guidance for evidence based decision making based upon a
multiple criteria analysis of the investment options, including (i) costs and benefits from the
different interventions, (ii) evidence from existing and planned (infrastructure)
interventions, (iii) socio-economic impacts and poverty reduction, (iv) safeguards, and (v)
other relevant co-benefits. The consultants will conduct an economic cost benefit analysis
for the different investment scenarios and the estimated reduced damages and losses to
buildings, infrastructure and related assets. Where possible the consultants will identify
priority areas for investments.
iii. A ‘pre-feasibility study’ for atleast one investment scenario (not regret option) will be
developed under the guidance of Steering Committee.
10. Stakeholder engagement: The consultants will, in close coordination with the government and the World Bank, conduct consultations with key stakeholders in greater Accra on
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exposure and potential investments with guidance from the already established steer-ing
committee. The consultants will furthermore engage with communities in Accra as well as
with civil society and the research community, NGOs and other organizations in engaging
them in developing innovative tools and instruments for flood risk management in GAMA.
ii. The objective of the stakeholder consultation is to jointly review the spatial analysis; (b)
to discuss and seek input for medium to long term investment priorities of the Greater Accra
Climate Risk Mitigation Strategy; (c) with development partners to identify areas of support
for the different policy actions; and (d) a final consultation and dissemination workshop to
share the final report widely. Minimum three stakeholder workshops are suggested as per
below:
 January 2017: Inception workshop to be held in Accra on scope of the work
 June 2017: Presentation of maps and key findings;
 September 2017: Presentation of options and benefits from investing in resilience;
iii. Public engagement and development of innovative tools and techniques for flood
management (flood management hackathon): A so-called “hackathon” will be organized, in
an effort to involve Ghana’s vivid IT community of practice in developing cell-phone and
internet based applications to make flood forecasting, weather and climate information
more accessible to users in Ghana. This activity would allow testing, piloting and where
possible, launching of the developed applications.
iv. Guidance on organizing stakeholder engagements and public consultations: See point 18
Deliverables and payment schedule
11. The consultants will provide the following deliverables
i. Inception report, taking stock of available information and describing proposed
methodology;
ii. Multi hazard maps for greater Accra;
iii. Map and risk assessment report: Hot spots maps identifying areas of high risk and
exposure (land value, population and climate risks
a. Map: Built-up areas exposed to climate risk: general characterization of the urban
land use (i.e. residential, industrial/commercial, etc.) including type of
vulnerability;
b. Map: Non-built-up areas exposed to climate risk: general characterization of the
land use, topography, and soil, including type of vulnerability;
c. Map and report: Exposure maps and information related to areas of population
growth (past and projected);
d. Map and report: Economic exposure based on land value and infrastructure;
e. Map and report: Projected climate risks considering climate change scenarios and
population growth projections;
iv. Damage assessment for floods from 2010 to 2015 in greater Accra;
v. Report on economic assets exposed to floods
vi. Report on damage curves
vii. Investment Plan for reducing flood risk in greater Accra for events with a 1: 10, 1:25,
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viii.
ix.
1:50 and 1:100 years return period scenarios for mitigating climate risks
Final and Summary report, including guidance from stakeholder consultations;
Report on flood management hackathon;
12. Payment schedule:
10% upon signing of the contract
20% upon successful submission and review of the inception report (i);
20% upon successful submission and review of the spatial analysis maps and reports (ii, iii),
damage assessment (iv) and report on economic assets (v);
30% upon successful submission of the investment plan (vi)
20% upon completion of the summary report (vii) and flood management hackathon (viii)
and acceptance of all final deliverables;
13. Note: The consultant will provide the outputs as (1) raster and/or vector data in formats
and the map products as .jpg, .png or .tiff files in appropriate resolution for printing (at least
300dpi), where appropriate. Per World Bank Open Data policy, the data generated (raster
and/or vector data) would be put in the public domain and in the future made available
through a Spatial Data Portal. For this all datasets generated should be accompanied with
meta-data that describes the basic information such as date of data production, etc and
sources of the input data that was used to generate the data and methodologies. The details
of the metadata will be discussed and agreed with the consultant during the preparation
phase.
Timing
14. The assignment will be conducted from December 2016 to December 2017 and has the
following key dates:
Report
Months from start of
Services
Inception report presented to the Government of Ghana and January 31, 2017
World Bank
Draft maps and report presented and validated
June 2017
Draft Investment Plan presented and discussed with
stakeholders
September 2017
Draft report and summary report presented to the World November 2017
Bank
Final report validated with the Government of Ghana and the December 2017
World Bank
Flood Management “Hackathon”
September 2017
Stakeholder dialogue and consultations
January 2017, June 2017,
September 2017,
December 2017
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Key Qualifications
15. The consultant will provide at least, but not limited to, the following key experts for the
assignment:
Role
Qualification
Team Leader
Masters or PhD in hydrology, water resources
manage-ment , urban drainage, and/or engineering
with vast experience urban flood risk management;
At least 10 years’ experience in managing complex
projects, ideally work experience in Africa
Masters or PhD any discipline related with Climate
and Disaster Risk Management with vast
experience urban flood and coastal zone risk
management; team leader experience in atleast one
assignment; 10 years’ experience in managing
complex projects, ideally work experience in Africa
Masters in GIS and / or civil engineering with vast
experience risk modeling; team leader experience in
atleast one assignment; 10 years’ experience in
managing complex projects, ideally work experience
in Africa
Masters in civil engineering with vast experience
urban infrastructure planning and costing of
infrastructure works; preferred experience in solid
waste management, sanitation, and urban drainage
Masters in urban planning with vast experience
urban infrastructure planning and costing of
infrastructure works
Masters in economics with vast experience in cost
benefit analysis and environmental valuation
techniques
Masters in Engineering, Business Management,
Public Administration and Policy, or Social
Development
Masters in Environmental Science/ Environmental
Management; experience with Environmental
Impact Assessment and Safeguards
Masters in Social Development, Social Work,
Sociology or related field with experience of
working in informal settlements
Deputy Team Leader
Climate and Disaster
Risk
Management
Specialist
GIS Expert / Risk
Modeler
Infrastructure Expert
Urban planner
Economist
Institution
Development
Specialist
Environmental
Management
Specialist
Social Development
Specialist
Years
of
experience
15 years
15 years
10 years
10 years
10 years
10 years
10 years
10 years
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Additional information and guidance to the consultant
16. The assignment will be conducted in Accra, Ghana;
17. The consultant will be responsible for having sufficient office space in Accra for the
assignment;
18. The consultant will cover the expenses for organizing workshops (stakeholder
consultants) related to the assignment and will accordingly budget for and cover expenses
such as workshop venue, printing, tea, coffee breaks and lunch, where necessary.
19. The contract will be a lump sum contract;
20. GAMA is the defined as the 16 metropolitan, municipal and district assembles, which
compose the region: Greater Accra Metropolitan Area.