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1 Policy Dialogue on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Greater Accra Climate and Disaster Risk Mitigation Strategy and Investment Planning Terms of Reference Date: September 26, 2016 Background 1. The World Bank has committed to scale up support to Ghana by supporting the development and implementation of country-led, multi-sector plans and investments for managing climate and disaster risks. The World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) deputies recognized in the 17th replenishment document “the urgent need and increasing demand from IDA countries to reduce the vulnerability of their people, assets, livelihoods and economies to climate related risks”. This commitment to foster climate and disaster resilient development is - among others – to be addressed through the following policy action: “Scale up support to IDA countries to develop and implement country-led, multi-sector plans and investments for managing climate and disaster risk in development”. In 2014 Ghana was nominated as one of the countries in Africa to develop such a multi sector investment framework in line with the IDA17 commitments on climate change and disaster risk reduction. It is expected that this investment frameworks would be prepared in 2016 and would guide investment lending under IDA18. Development partners have expressed their interest to contribute to such an Enhancing urban resilience and city strength. The Greater Accra Climate Risk Mitigation Strategy is a part of the IDA17 Policy Dialogue on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction and aims at preparing a diagnostic on climate resilient urban development in Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA). 2. Ghana has taken proactive steps with a well-developed national climate and disaster risk management policy (National Climate Change Policy (NCCP)) and an associated action plan. The second phase of NCCP, the Ghana National Climate Change Policy Action Program for Implementation: 2015 – 2020, presents a budgeted implementation program by sector for the ten focus areas of the policy. It is estimated to cost US$ 9.3 billion over 2015-20. For the climate negotiations in Paris the government of Ghana presented the Indicative Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), which summarizes priority actions for the following 5 to 10 years related to mitigation and adaptation. INDC proposed a funding need for mitigation and adaptation for more than US$ 22 billion. The policy actions for adaptation of the INDC include: (i) Agriculture and Resilience Building in Climate Vulnerable Landscapes, (ii) Value Addition based use of forest resources, (iii) City Wide Resilient Infrastructure Planning, (iv) Early Warning and Disaster Prevention, (v) Managing Climate Induced Health Risks, (vi) Integrated Water Resources Management, (vii) Resilience of Gender and the Vulnerable. This study will support evidence-based decision-making on specific investment choices for implementing the INDC on the scale of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) region. 3. The assignment builds upon the ongoing and completed technical assistance financed by the Government of Ghana, The World Bank and other partners. With this regard it makes 2 reference to (i) the Enhancing Urban Resilience in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, which supported the CityStrength diagnostic for GAMA in 2016, (ii) the Integrated Urban Sanitation and Drainage Master Plan for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, which is financed through the GAMA Water and Sanitation Project (iii) the Ghana Urbanization Review, (iv) the Ghana Disaster Risk Management Country Plan and other related projects like the Community Resilience through Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Project, which is supported by UNDP. The consultants will make reference to these reports and will build upon their specific findings. Objectives 4. The objective of the Greater Accra Climate Risk Mitigation Strategy is to support evidence based decision-making and investment planning for climate risk mitigation in Greater Accra based upon objective assessment of the cities’ climate hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure. The strategy will provide guidance to decision makers on concrete climate adaptation investments within GAMA in line with the overall priorities defined in the INDC and NCCP. Project Steering Committee 5. To ensure coherence with the ongoing policy dialogue on climate change adaption, disaster risk reduction and resilient urban development, the assignment would be supported and guided by a project steering committee. The steering committee for this project consists of the National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO), Ministry of Environment, Technology, Science and Innovation (MESTI), Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), National Development Planning Commission (NDPC), Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development (MLGRD), Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MOFEP) and Ministry of Water Resources, Works and Housing (MWRWH); The project steering committee will provide guidance to the assignment and support the review of the draft deliverables. More specifically, the steering committee would provide guidance to this assignment in the context of the climate change and disaster risk reduction policy development and implementation of the NCCP, the NCCP Implementation Plan of Action and the INDC. Furthermore, the steering committee would ensure coherence with the broader urban development and spatial planning agenda for GAMA as well as planned and ongoing investments drainage and flood risk management. Approach and tasks 6. The Greater Accra Climate Risk Mitigation Strategy will build on the many studies and assessments related to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Ghana and greater Accra specifically and will follow three specific areas of the assessment: (i) Risk Assessment: The risk assessment will provide an objective basis on the flood, coastal erosion and sea level rise hazard, vulnerability and exposure of the population, infrastructure and economic assets to climate risks in greater Accra. (ii) Decision support and investment planning: Identification of potential investments for mitigating climate risks in greater Accra in line with investment priorities of Ghana’s INDC, supporting evidence based decision making based on objective criteria including cost benefit analysis for different investment scenarios; 3 (iii) Stakeholder engagement: Consultation with key stakeholders and community engagement in greater Accra on flood management and potential investments; 7. The consultants will collect and review existing data, studies, master plans and other key data related to urban drainage, flood-, disaster management, urban and spatial planning available for GAMA. i. Previous Studies: The consultants shall review all existing studies developed for the GAMA in relation to urban drainage, flood, Sea Level Rise, disaster risk management, urban and spatial planning existing master-plans, and any related studies of urban waters such as sanitation, solid waste, and environment. The assessment will particularly build upon the following studies: o Flood risk assessment of the Integrated Urban Sanitation and Drainage Master Plan for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area; o City Strength Diagnostic for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area o Flood risk maps for Accra Metropolitan Assembly prepared by the Community Resilience through Early Warning Systems (CREWS) project; o Economic impacts of climate change modeling carried out as a part of IDA-17 Dialogue on Climate and Disaster Risk Management Multisectoral Plan o Poverty and disaster exposure pilot study based on the SWIFT methodology. ii. Spatial data: The consultants will review existing spatial information on the drainage network, flood hazard, coastal erosion and sea level rise. The consultants will develop a simple geo-information database to facilitate the sharing of spatial information with the project and with relevant stakeholders. iii. The main layers required by the study are: (a) topography (scale 1:25,000, 50.000, based on availability), (b) recent satellite image of the area in order to assess the urban occupation/land use patterns; (c) identification of rainfall data, mainly pluviograph where it is possible to have rainfall distribution; existing rainfall intensity duration curves and the period of data use in its development; (d) household surveys; iv. Projects, plans and programs: The consultants will identify any projects, plans, and programs developed and under development in the area. v. Institutions and Legislation: The consultants will identify the institutions and its objectives, organization and employees; Identification of the legislations related to urban development, drainage and environment. 8. Risk Assessment: The objective of the “spatial analysis” is to obtain information about the spatial relationship between natural hazards as well as population, land use, and economic assets and their vulnerability and exposure to natural hazards. The probabilistic risk assessment will depart from existing assessments of flood hazards in greater Accra and will determine the separated and combined risk of flooding, coastal erosion, inundation, sea level rise combining existing assessment data with a new spatial analysis. The risk assessment will cover the following elements: 4 Hazards Probability Exposure Probability Vulnerability Value Consequences Disaster risk management capacity Figure: Elements of the risk assessment (derived from Messner and Meyer, 2005) i. Spatial Analysis: Hazards, probability, exposure and vulnerability The spatial analysis will build upon the under point 7 mentioned data, reports and plans to identify potential hotspots and risk areas illustrating type and degree of vulnerability for the different risk categories and scales of risk. The spatial analysis include but is not limited to flooding and sea level rise, will provide the following information in form of maps, tables and reports: a. Separate and combined multi- hazard maps for greater Accra; b. Built-up areas exposed to climate risk: general characterization of the urban land use (i.e. residential, industrial/commercial, etc.) including type of vulnerability; c. Non-built-up areas exposed to climate risk including but not limited to Sea Level Rise, Flooding: general characterization of the land use, topography, and soil, including type of vulnerability; d. Exposure maps and information related to areas of population growth (past and projected); e. Hot spots maps identifying areas and communities of high risk and exposure (land value, population and climate risks); f. Projected risks considering climate change scenarios and population growth projections; ii. Valuation of assets and livelihoods at risk: In addition to the spatial analysis the consultants will conduct an estimation of the economic value of assets at risk of flooding using remote sensing, as well as relevant mapping and survey techniques. The consultants will therefore specify an appropriate methodology for the mapping and valuation of the existing housing, infrastructure and related assets, e.g. based on the estimation of current land and property value and replacement value for the partial and total reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure. This valuation will build upon the already completed valuation for the Accra Metropolitan Assembly. The consultants will base the assessment on publically available information and conduct required surveys and mapping exercises in greater Accra. Information on the spatial relationship between poverty and exposure to natural hazards is currently being compiled using the SWIFT methodology based on extensive household surveys in GAMA. The assessment will benefit from the results of the 5 study to determine the spatial linkages between poverty, livelihoods and exposure to natural hazards in GAMA. iii. Assessment of the historic costs of floods in Greater Accra: Accra has repeatedly been hit by severe flooding, but lacks any information on the costs of these events with regard to the estimated damages for different sectors of the economy as well as humanitarian expenses provided by the national government (NADMO) and the MMDAs. The consultants will make an estimation of the historic damages for the 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014 floods in greater Accra for the infrastructure, social and productive sectors based on the definitions and methodology spelled out as Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology (DALA). iv. Damage curves: Based on the spatial analysis, valuation of assets and historic costs, the consultants will compute the expected annual damage (separate and combined) for flooding, sea level rise and coastal erosion hazards for different return periods (1:10 years, 1:25 years, 1:50 years, 1:100 years). Information will be provided in the form of damage curves, illustrated for different areas of GAMA. 9. Investment planning and decision support: The consultants will determine required investments for mitigating climate and disaster risks in greater Accra in line with the policy actions of Ghana’s INDC, the National Climate Change Policy, the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and relevant sector strategies of the government. The consultants will consider existing and pipeline investment while proposing new investments for disaster and climate risk reduction. i. The consultants will provide at least five investment scenarios, with a general cost estimation based on similar investments in Ghana and the region as well as global best practice. The investment plan will provide cost estimates and detailed planning scenarios infrastructure investments to reduce the risk of flooding for flood events with a return period of 1: 10 years, 1: 25 years, 1: 50 years and 1: 100 years. The investment scenarios will provide a costed overview of investments to mitigate existing and future climate risks identified in the spatial analysis. ii. The assessment will provide guidance for evidence based decision making based upon a multiple criteria analysis of the investment options, including (i) costs and benefits from the different interventions, (ii) evidence from existing and planned (infrastructure) interventions, (iii) socio-economic impacts and poverty reduction, (iv) safeguards, and (v) other relevant co-benefits. The consultants will conduct an economic cost benefit analysis for the different investment scenarios and the estimated reduced damages and losses to buildings, infrastructure and related assets. Where possible the consultants will identify priority areas for investments. iii. A ‘pre-feasibility study’ for atleast one investment scenario (not regret option) will be developed under the guidance of Steering Committee. 10. Stakeholder engagement: The consultants will, in close coordination with the government and the World Bank, conduct consultations with key stakeholders in greater Accra on 6 exposure and potential investments with guidance from the already established steer-ing committee. The consultants will furthermore engage with communities in Accra as well as with civil society and the research community, NGOs and other organizations in engaging them in developing innovative tools and instruments for flood risk management in GAMA. ii. The objective of the stakeholder consultation is to jointly review the spatial analysis; (b) to discuss and seek input for medium to long term investment priorities of the Greater Accra Climate Risk Mitigation Strategy; (c) with development partners to identify areas of support for the different policy actions; and (d) a final consultation and dissemination workshop to share the final report widely. Minimum three stakeholder workshops are suggested as per below: January 2017: Inception workshop to be held in Accra on scope of the work June 2017: Presentation of maps and key findings; September 2017: Presentation of options and benefits from investing in resilience; iii. Public engagement and development of innovative tools and techniques for flood management (flood management hackathon): A so-called “hackathon” will be organized, in an effort to involve Ghana’s vivid IT community of practice in developing cell-phone and internet based applications to make flood forecasting, weather and climate information more accessible to users in Ghana. This activity would allow testing, piloting and where possible, launching of the developed applications. iv. Guidance on organizing stakeholder engagements and public consultations: See point 18 Deliverables and payment schedule 11. The consultants will provide the following deliverables i. Inception report, taking stock of available information and describing proposed methodology; ii. Multi hazard maps for greater Accra; iii. Map and risk assessment report: Hot spots maps identifying areas of high risk and exposure (land value, population and climate risks a. Map: Built-up areas exposed to climate risk: general characterization of the urban land use (i.e. residential, industrial/commercial, etc.) including type of vulnerability; b. Map: Non-built-up areas exposed to climate risk: general characterization of the land use, topography, and soil, including type of vulnerability; c. Map and report: Exposure maps and information related to areas of population growth (past and projected); d. Map and report: Economic exposure based on land value and infrastructure; e. Map and report: Projected climate risks considering climate change scenarios and population growth projections; iv. Damage assessment for floods from 2010 to 2015 in greater Accra; v. Report on economic assets exposed to floods vi. Report on damage curves vii. Investment Plan for reducing flood risk in greater Accra for events with a 1: 10, 1:25, 7 viii. ix. 1:50 and 1:100 years return period scenarios for mitigating climate risks Final and Summary report, including guidance from stakeholder consultations; Report on flood management hackathon; 12. Payment schedule: 10% upon signing of the contract 20% upon successful submission and review of the inception report (i); 20% upon successful submission and review of the spatial analysis maps and reports (ii, iii), damage assessment (iv) and report on economic assets (v); 30% upon successful submission of the investment plan (vi) 20% upon completion of the summary report (vii) and flood management hackathon (viii) and acceptance of all final deliverables; 13. Note: The consultant will provide the outputs as (1) raster and/or vector data in formats and the map products as .jpg, .png or .tiff files in appropriate resolution for printing (at least 300dpi), where appropriate. Per World Bank Open Data policy, the data generated (raster and/or vector data) would be put in the public domain and in the future made available through a Spatial Data Portal. For this all datasets generated should be accompanied with meta-data that describes the basic information such as date of data production, etc and sources of the input data that was used to generate the data and methodologies. The details of the metadata will be discussed and agreed with the consultant during the preparation phase. Timing 14. The assignment will be conducted from December 2016 to December 2017 and has the following key dates: Report Months from start of Services Inception report presented to the Government of Ghana and January 31, 2017 World Bank Draft maps and report presented and validated June 2017 Draft Investment Plan presented and discussed with stakeholders September 2017 Draft report and summary report presented to the World November 2017 Bank Final report validated with the Government of Ghana and the December 2017 World Bank Flood Management “Hackathon” September 2017 Stakeholder dialogue and consultations January 2017, June 2017, September 2017, December 2017 8 Key Qualifications 15. The consultant will provide at least, but not limited to, the following key experts for the assignment: Role Qualification Team Leader Masters or PhD in hydrology, water resources manage-ment , urban drainage, and/or engineering with vast experience urban flood risk management; At least 10 years’ experience in managing complex projects, ideally work experience in Africa Masters or PhD any discipline related with Climate and Disaster Risk Management with vast experience urban flood and coastal zone risk management; team leader experience in atleast one assignment; 10 years’ experience in managing complex projects, ideally work experience in Africa Masters in GIS and / or civil engineering with vast experience risk modeling; team leader experience in atleast one assignment; 10 years’ experience in managing complex projects, ideally work experience in Africa Masters in civil engineering with vast experience urban infrastructure planning and costing of infrastructure works; preferred experience in solid waste management, sanitation, and urban drainage Masters in urban planning with vast experience urban infrastructure planning and costing of infrastructure works Masters in economics with vast experience in cost benefit analysis and environmental valuation techniques Masters in Engineering, Business Management, Public Administration and Policy, or Social Development Masters in Environmental Science/ Environmental Management; experience with Environmental Impact Assessment and Safeguards Masters in Social Development, Social Work, Sociology or related field with experience of working in informal settlements Deputy Team Leader Climate and Disaster Risk Management Specialist GIS Expert / Risk Modeler Infrastructure Expert Urban planner Economist Institution Development Specialist Environmental Management Specialist Social Development Specialist Years of experience 15 years 15 years 10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years 9 Additional information and guidance to the consultant 16. The assignment will be conducted in Accra, Ghana; 17. The consultant will be responsible for having sufficient office space in Accra for the assignment; 18. The consultant will cover the expenses for organizing workshops (stakeholder consultants) related to the assignment and will accordingly budget for and cover expenses such as workshop venue, printing, tea, coffee breaks and lunch, where necessary. 19. The contract will be a lump sum contract; 20. GAMA is the defined as the 16 metropolitan, municipal and district assembles, which compose the region: Greater Accra Metropolitan Area.