Download Negotiation Indices - European Capacity Building Initiative

european capacity building initiative
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european capacity building initiative
initiative européenne de renforcement des capacités
ecbi
Title: Towards an African roadmap to Durban
Sub-title: The African Position for the 17th COP of the UNFCCC
in Durban, South Africa
Author: Tosi MPANU-MPANU
for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations
pour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales
sur les changements climatiques
Introduction
– Curb the rising threat of climate change to the African continent
– Implement the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its
Kyoto Protocol
– Advance the longer-term interests and aspirations of all African
countries and people
• A strong common African position based on science and on the
rule of law will lay the foundation for a coherent roadmap and
strategy for the “African Climate Conference” in Durban
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• The UN Climate Change Conference in Durban represents a
critical moment in the international climate change
negotiations
• It represents a defining opportunity for African leaders and
negotiators to chart the course towards outcomes that:
Overview
1. Current scientific and economic context of the climate
negotiations
2. Current political context of the climate negotiations
3. The status quo of the negotiations immediately following
the June Bonn session
4. Expectations for the Durban Climate Conference
5. The process of meetings and negotiations towards Durban
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A comprehensive strategy for Durban should consider:
Scientific and economic context
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• Recent scientific information since the IPCC 4th Assessment Report
confirms the world is on course for levels of warming that will be
catastrophic for Africa – addressing this must be a central concern for
Durban
• UNEP confirms that current mitigation pledges – unless strengthened –
set the world on course for global warming of between 2.5 to 5°C
• Africa, due to its geographic and physical characteristics, will warm
around one-and-a-half times the global level, according to the IPCC
• Recent studies, based on historical information, project that warming as
low as 1°C could reduce agricultural production by 20% in certain
crops and areas, and project other adverse impacts for Africa’s
development
• Preparation for the Durban Climate Conference must mark a major
change in direction - including new levels of awareness in both
developed and developing countries - if the UN climate talks are to
secure Africa’s safety
Scientific and economic context (2)
– Developed countries intend to undertake reductions in developing countries
via carbon markets and offsetting (over 1.1Gt)
– Developed countries can also make use of “loopholes” from land-use, surplus
allowances etc (currently around 3.9Gt)
• Unless developed countries increase ambition they could undertake
no domestic reductions by 2020 yet remain in formal compliance
(see graph)
• Inadequate mitigation efforts risks excessive use of the atmospheric
space required by Africa for its development, and dangerous
warming
• A major effort is required to close the “mitigation gap” to avoid
major adverse impacts to Africa
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• Developed countries are offering very low levels of emission
reductions for 2020 (3 to 3.8Gt) in comparison to developing
countries (3.6 to 5.2Gt)
• The comparison is even less favorable due to:
Mitigation pledges by developed and developing countries in the
context of a 2 degree C goal
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Scientific and economic context (3)
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• Africa is already suffering major financial losses due to climate
change
• At the same time, there is increasing concern regarding
implementation of finance commitments by developed countries
• $30 billion in “fast-start” finance pledged in Copenhagen for 20102012 is slow to be disbursed and is largely neither “new” nor
“additional”
• Preliminary assessment suggests that as little as 1.1 to 5.3 billion is
“new and additional” (i.e. not pledged pre-Copenhagen or as ODA)
• There remains no agreement on financing to be provided
commencing in 2013, or on public finance to be provided by 2020
• A major effort is required to close the “finance gap” to ensure Africa
can undertake appropriate actions to reduce emissions and adapt to
climate change
Political context
 Stating they do not intend to honor their Kyoto commitments, or
 Stating they will fulfill their commitments, subject to certain “conditionalities”
 There is pressure to replace the current rules- and science-based
negotiations under the Kyoto Protocol with a weaker “pledge-based”
system under the Convention
 Developing countries are at risk of making concessions under the
Convention, in return for weaker disciplines than already apply to
developed countries under the Protocol
 A sustained effort is required to maintain a science- and rules-based
international climate regime, building on the Convention and its Kyoto
Protocol
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 Substantial challenges are arising in the climate negotiations
 Last year, Cancun addressed certain “easier” issues (e.g. new institutions)
leaving certain “harder issues” (e.g. mitigation commitments for developed
countries) to be addressed in Durban
 This year, developing countries – particularly Africa – fought to retain these
issues on the agenda in line with the agreed mandates and two negotiating
tracks of the “Bali Roadmap”
 In contrast, some developed countries are departing from the Bali
Roadmap by:
Status quo of the negotiations
 The agenda of the negotiations under the Convention (in the AWG-LCA)
 The need to address political concerns arising around the future of the Kyoto
Protocol (in the AWG-KP)
 Unity of Africa and G77 ensured all key issues remain on the table for Durban
 At the June 2011 climate talks in Bonn:
 The AWG-KP made some progress on technical issues, and less progress on
political issues regarding the future of the Kyoto Protocol
 The AWG-LCA commenced negotiations on substantive issues for Durban, with
texts developed by facilitator
 The Subsidiary Bodies debated agendas and made some progress on
substantive issues
 The meetings of the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP will be continued in sessions
convened during October in Panama
 During this process, the African Group has revised the African Platform
based on previous versions, outcomes from AMCEN and AU and recent
scientific and technical information
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 April 2011 climate talks in Bangkok centered on:
Expectations for Durban
– A second commitment period for Annex I countries under the Kyoto
Protocol
– An agreed outcome under the Bali Action Plan to ensure full
implementation of the Convention
• Balance is required:
– Under both tracks of the negotiations (Convention and Kyoto Protocol)
– On all the “building blocks” of the Bali Action Plan – shared vision,
adaptation, mitigation, finance, technology transfer and capacity
building
• Africa has consistently emphasized the importance of
outcomes based on science, principles, equity and the rule of
law
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• In accordance with the Bali Roadmap, Africa’s expectations for
Durban include:
Expectations for Durban (2)
1.
A temperature goal sufficient to avoid dangerous warming and keep
Africa safe
2.
A level of global emission reductions sufficient to achieve this
temperature goal (i.e. a limited global carbon budget)
3.
A fair and science-based contribution by Annex I emission to these
emission reductions (i.e. leaving an adequate carbon budget or
atmospheric space for developing countries, including Africa)
4.
Adequate means of implementation (including finance, technology and
capacity) for non-Annex I countries to:
a)
Address adaptation costs and efforts associated with (1)
b)
Address mitigation costs and efforts associated with (2) and (3)
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• To secure Africa’s long-term interests requires a science-based
outcome to the climate negotiations that reflects:
Expectations for Durban (3)
1. Global warming must be kept “well below 1.5 degrees C”
2. Global emissions should peak well before 2020 and reduce more than
85% by 2050, subject first to agreement on mitigation and financing
from developed countries
3. Developed countries should reduce emissions below 1990 levels by at
least 40% by 2017 and at least 45% by 2020
4. Developed countries should make available long-term financing
equivalent to at least 1.5% of their GDP
• These demands together present an integrated and science-based
position reflecting Africa’s common interests
• Advancing these will require a coherent strategy both for Durban
(including agreed bottom lines) and beyond Durban (including for
the 2013-2015 review), underpinned by a more systematic agenda
of political outreach, communications and research
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• In line with a science-based position:
Process towards and during Durban
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• Africa welcomes the important role and leadership provided
by South Africa, and commits to work closely to make Durban
a resounding success
• The process for Durban should yield a balanced outcome on all
issues including mitigation and finance (not merely a subset of
issues)
• Expectations for Durban must be raised (not lowered) to
deliver the outcomes needed by Africa
• The process for Durban must provide a model of openness,
transparency and participation
• Through effective engagement by officials, Ministers and
Heads of State with all negotiating partners before and during
Durban, its outcomes can address the needs and aspirations of
all Africans