Download Wiensczykposterabstract - Ministry of Forests, Lands and

Reducing vulnerabilities and promoting resilience of BC’s natural and human systems through
adaptation of post-disturbance land management options
Project Team
FORREX: Kathie Swift, Al Wiensczyk, Todd Redding, Don Gayton, Pedro Lara Almuedo, Ajit Krishnaswamy, Ellen
Simmons, Larry Joseph, Suzan Lapp
Canadian Forest Service: Phil Burton, Steve Taylor
University of Northern BC: Sean Haughian, Bryan Pettit
Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations: Mike Pedersen, Kathy Hopkins
Ministry of Environment: Jenny Feick
Interfor: Gerry Fraser
Almost everything a human being does involves making some form of decision. As the complexity of the decision
increases, so does the process involved in making that decision. The most demonstrable effects of climate change
may be shifting natural disturbance regimes. In a recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), Working Group II (which highlights the climate change related Impacts, Adaptations, and
Vulnerabilities), concludes, with very high confidence, that, in the coming decades, the frequency and severity of
wildfire, insect outbreaks, drought, and extreme weather events will increase in North America as a result of
climate change (IPCC 2011). A regional assessment of Canada’s vulnerability to climate change reached the same
conclusions, but noted that the highest certainty of shifting disturbance regimes will very likely be in British
Columbia (Walker and Sydneysmith 2008). Thus, a major challenge facing natural resource managers and
policymakers in BC will be adapting post-disturbance land management decisions and activities to address these
shifts. This project was developed to help meet this challenge. The overall goal of the project was to design a
decision support framework1 to provide strategic guidance on one possible way to integrate projected changes in
natural disturbance regimes into actions and decisions on the ground.
The specific project objectives were to;
1) develop a regionalized Decision Support Framework to help promote local decision-making using
information and tools to build forested ecosystems and human systems that are resilient to the potential
and uncertain shifts in natural disturbance regimes,
2) synthesize the current state of knowledge and projections around shifts in the frequency and severity of
major disturbance types (e.g., fire, pests, drought) in BC, which are attributable to climate change, and
3) define and quantify the range of potential effects of major disturbance types, as well as post-disturbance
land management responses on natural (e.g., watershed function, forest succession, carbon storage,
conservation biology), and human systems (e.g., social, economic, cultural, and communities, including
First Nations).
The framework consists of three main adaptation actions or pillars (1: Providing Evidence/Effects, 2: Increasing
Adaptive Capacity, and 3: Addressing Competing Pressures) that are used to inform decisions (Swift 2012a).
Because of the regional nature of expected shifts in natural disturbance, a more strategic approach was developed.
It is hope that by following this approach actions can be customized to specific locations based on specific
information.
The decision support framework is supported by a number of topical syntheses which were also completed as part
of this project. These syntheses provide the base line knowledge that is key to the evidence/effects pillar in the
framework. They summarize what is known about the expected shifts in the frequency and severity of major
natural disturbance events associated with climate change, as well as the both the ecological impacts (forest
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Decision Support Framework: For this project a decision support framework is defined as a mental model
designed to provide strategic guidance for decision makers who are developing management strategies and
actions related to addressing projected shifts in natural disturbance regimes.
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succession, watershed values, biodiversity, and forest carbon) and direct consequences to communities and
human systems of those shifts and our post-disturbance management response to them.
It is anticipated that forest fires will be more frequent and more intense in some locations of the province
(southern interior and Taiga Plains), forest insects and fungal pathogens will expand their ranges northward and to
higher elevations along with their hosts, and wind damage, floods, and landslides will increase on terrain where
they are already a risk factor (Haughian et al 2012). It was also concluded that although a greater compilation of
empirical and simulated data is required, land managers may wish to adjust plans accordingly where consensus
exists among climate projections.
Projected changes to temperature and precipitation will impact the disturbance drivers, such as wildfire, insect and
disease outbreak, and windthrow, which strongly influence the successional pathway along which a forest
develops in terms of structure and function (Swift 2012b). However, the specific impact will vary significantly by
ecosystem.
The changes to disturbance regimes and salvage harvesting may also impact the magnitude and timing of
streamflow, stream temperature, suspended sediment and aquatic invertebrate population dynamics (Redding et
al 2012). Maintenance of natural hydrologic and ecosystem function following post-disturbance management
activities is critical to maintain the resilience of watersheds (i.e., the ability of natural systems to recover from
perturbation). Key considerations include: planning management activities at the site, watershed and landscape
scales using the best available information along with qualified watershed professionals, maximizing riparian
overstory retention within 10 metres of streams, minimizing the introduction of fine sediments into surface water
bodies, and monitoring the effects of disturbances and management interventions to support adaptive
management.
The most effective way to promote biodiversity and ecosystem resilience is to maintain or reinstate those natural
disturbance patterns where possible, and to emulate them in our forest harvesting activities (Lara Almuedo and
Gayton 2012). Where and when feasible it is also recommended that some areas should be left unaltered to allow
for the ecological role of natural disturbance to run its course.
Maintaining forest ecosystems as a carbon sink is one of the current strategies suggested to help mitigate the
impacts of climate change (Swift 2012c). The capacity of a forest or an ecosystem to sequester and store carbon is
a function of many key variables including the aspect and elevation of the site, nutritional status, stand
characteristics and disturbance history. Managers must also be cognizant of the need to continue balancing forest
values, since a long-term focus on maximizing carbon sequestration can result in detrimental impacts on other
forest values, such as biodiversity and the use of forests for building products.
Communities must also make land management decisions related to increasing the adaptive capacity of the
community to respond to changes in natural disturbance frequency and severity as a result of climate change
(Krishnaswamy et al. 2012). Rural forest-based and First Nations’ communities are especially vulnerable because
their economic, social and cultural aspects of life are closely linked to the local environment and climate. There is a
high degree of uncertainty in predicting the frequency and intensity of natural disturbances in a particular location.
The most effective management response to address this uncertainty is to focus on reducing vulnerability and
increasing community resilience. There are a variety of management strategies and tools available to assist
community leaders with this process.
The post-disturbance land management decisions that are made today will have far-reaching implications on both
natural and human systems, both now and into the future. The issues facing decision makers will be complex and
their decisions will require assessing and balancing the impacts of management activities on a whole suite of forest
values. It is hoped that the Decision Support Framework and the supporting extension notes included in the BC
Journal of Ecosystems and Management will help determine when, where, and what type of management
interventions could be applied to support healthy ecosystems and communities under threat of increased natural
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disturbance due to climate change. The framework has been developed within the context of an adaptive
management framework, with the aim to reduce uncertainty over time and improve future management.
Literature Cited
Haughian, S.R., P.J. Burton, S. W. Taylor, & C. L. Curry. 2012. Expected effects of climate change on forest
disturbance regimes in British Columbia. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 13(1):1–24
http://jem.forrex.org/index.php/jem/article/viewFile/152/107
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2011. Summary for Policymakers. In: Field, C. B., Barros, V.,
Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S., Tignor, M.
and P. M. Midgley (editors). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks
of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
Krishnaswamy, A., E. Simmons, and L. Joseph. 2012. Increasing the resilience of British Columbia’s rural
communities to natural disturbances and climate change. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 13(1):
http://jem.forrex.org/index.php/jem/article/viewFile/168/115
Lara Almuedo, P. and D. Gayton. 2012. Post-disturbance management of biodiversity in BC forests. BC Journal of
Ecosystems and Management 13(1):
http://jem.forrex.org/index.php/jem/article/viewFile/184/114
Redding, T., S. Lapp and J. Leach. 2012. Natural disturbance and post-disturbance management effects on selected
watershed values. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 13(1):
http://jem.forrex.org/index.php/jem/article/viewFile/172/106
Swift, K.I. 2012a. Decision Support Framework: Integrating the environmental and human dimensions into decision
making related to changes in natural disturbance events. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 13(1):
http://jem.forrex.org/index.php/jem/article/viewFile/185/121
Swift, K.I. 2012b. Climate-induced changes to natural disturbance regimes and management responses: Impacts on
successional responses. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 13(1): 23 pp.
http://jem.forrex.org/index.php/jem/article/viewFile/171/113
Swift, K.I. 2012c. Forest carbon and management options in an uncertain climate. BC Journal of Ecosystems and
Management 13(1):
http://jem.forrex.org/index.php/jem/article/viewFile/169/110
Walker, I.J., and R. Sydneysmith. 2008. British Columbia. In Lemmon, D.S., F.J. Warren, J. Lacroix, and E. Bush
(eds.). From impacts to adaptation: Canada in a changing climate 2007. Government of Canada, Ottawa, On,
(p. 329-386).
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