* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download World CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type 1990-2030
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Fossil fuel phase-out wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Canada wikipedia , lookup
Decarbonisation measures in proposed UK electricity market reform wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Business action on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Global Climate Change and Public Policy Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Energy Alternatives Professor Leonard Rodberg Department of Urban Studies Office Powdermaker Rm 250A Email [email protected] Telephone 718-997-5134 2004 US Oil Production and Imports The Time Course of Production of any Non-renewal Resource according to M. King Hubbert It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil Hubbert Curve for US Oil Production - 1956 2004 US Oil Production and Imports The Paper that Started It All… *Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, Houston, Texas **Chief Consultant (General Geology). World Energy Use by Fuel Hubbert Curve for World Oil Production - 1956 The Decline of New Oil Discoveries Oil Production Worldwide The Optimists’ View Taking the Long View: The History of the Human Race according to M. King Hubbert It’s Getting Warmer And the Sea Level is Rising Greenhouse Effect What are the Greenhouse Gases? • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Methane (CH4) Principal Source: Burning of Fossil Fuels: Oil, natural gas/methane, coal Hydrocarbons (CnHm)) + Oxygen (O2) CO2 + H2O Also Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) The Concentration of CO2 is Growing GHG Trends 1970-2004 Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit Radiative Forcing Components Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities The Long View Relatively little variation before the industrial era Direct Observation of Recent Climate Change At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include: – Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, – Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns – and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones Declining Sea Ice http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warmingbasics/facts_and_figures/impacts/lateseaice.cfm GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning Signs Impacts Worldwide Fingerprints and Harbingers Spreading disease Coral reef bleaching Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Glaciers melting Earlier spring arrival Sea level rise and coastal flooding Arctic and Antarctic warming Plant and animal range shifts and population declines www.climatehotmap.org Droughts and fires Why Not Natural Gas? Natural gas causes more global warming but less air pollution mortality than coal over 150 years due to less sulfate (a cooling agent) and more methane (a warming agent) from natural gas than coal. Coal causes higher mortality. 50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh than wind Hydrofracking causes land and water supply degradation Why Not Nuclear? 9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining uranium, using fossil fuels for electricity during the 11-19 years to permit (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted) Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation Unresolved waste issues Why Not Ethanol? Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline -- Corn E85: 90-200% of CO2 emissions of gasoline -- Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO2 emissions of gasoline Wind: <1% of CO2 emissions as gasoline Enormous land use and water requirements U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57 Wind WindElectricity Electricity Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. Today: 50,000 MW (1/40) Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association) Photovoltaic Power Nuclear Electricity Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: Nuclear Electricity 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power. Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge. Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since 1972-73. Credit: Dominion. A revised goal: retrievable storage Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessing Universal rules and international governance Biofuels Efficient Use of Electricity Efficient Use of Electricity motors lighting cogeneration Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: . 25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings Target commercial and multifamily buildings. Efficient Use of of Fuel Efficient Use Fuel Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon. 2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. 2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year. Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl Carbon Storage Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: 3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr 100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR Carbon Storage A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today Sleipner project, offshore Norway Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins Reforestation and Land Conservation NYC Energy Profile 1979 Saving Energy in NYC Source: L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village Voice, Feb. 18, 1980 PlaNYC Mitigation Measures PlaNYC Wedges Planning for a Major Hurricane Both Adaptation and Mitigation: Mayor’s PlaNYC Adapts to Some Inevitable Climate Change • Protect our city’s vital infrastructure • Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop site-specific strategies • Launch a citywide strategic planning process for climate change adaptation