Download Ice Storm - City of Ottawa

Road Maintenance and the Changing Climate
100 Years Ago
There were only 8,000 cars
in the U.S., and only 144
miles of paved roads.
The maximum speed limit
in most cities was 10 mph.
Don MacIver,
Heather Auld,
Joan Klaassen,
Neil Comer
MEETING TAXPAYERS EXPECTATIONS:
KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY
• Increasing population and demographics
• More affluence and property value
• Increasing urbanization and 24/7
Impacts and Adaptation Science
Solutions:
providing assistance by making …
Red River Valley Flood
RADARSAT Satellite Image
• An adjustment in
Floodway
Emerson
Winnipeg
Red River Floodway Inlet
response to
actual or expected
stimuli
• Building our adaptive capacity
by improving our adaptation
science and partnerships
Canada Customs
St. Agathe
Brunkild Dyke
Rosenort
Morris
Making decisions and acting
sustainably in a complex
and
changing world
Adaptation Deficit
is increasing
Global Costs of Great Natural Disasters (1950-2000) in
US$ Billions, including economic and insured losses
ADAPTATION DEFICIT
(Great natural disasters defined as > 100 deaths and/or US$ 100M in claims)
Increasing Natural Disaster Losses
Is Vulnerability of Communities Increasing??
billions of 1999 $
6
economic loss
5
insured loss
4
3
2
1
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: ICLR, based on data from IBC and Emergency Preparedness Canada
Adaptation Options
Bear the loss (eg. liability)
Prevent the effects (eg. ice removal)
Modify the events (eg. salt/sand)
Change Behaviour (eg. warnings)
Research – (eg. science & technology)
Education & outreach
Invest in disaster resilience
The Changing
Climate
Changes in temperature are unevenly
distributed
Trends for
1950-98
Degrees C
Trends in extremes
Trend in 5th percentile of daily Tmin
(Winters, 1900-1998)
Less intense cold
X. Zhang. B. Bonsal, É. Mekis, A. Shabbarand L. Vincent
Ontario
• GETTING WARMER
WARMER
• NON-LINEAR
WARMER
LITTLE
CHANGE
Canada is becoming wetter
Percent change in precipitation 1950-98
Ontario
• GETTING WETTER
WETTER
• NON-LINEAR
WETTER
Beatrice Annual Precipitation
1895-2003
1800
Ann Precipitation (mm)
Has the Climate Been Changing in
the Georgian Bay Area?
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
1895
1915
1935
1955
1975
1995
Year
Since 1895…
Long term Climate Stations
Wiarton A Annual Temperature
14
Maximum
12
Temperature ( °C)
14
12
10
10
Mean
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
Minimum
0
0
-2
1895
-2
1915
1935
1955
Year
Annual Temps warmed
~ 0.5-1.0 C
(Min Temps up to 2 C)
1975
1995
2003
Annual Precip increased
Up to 20%
Has the Climate Been Changing in
the Long Point Area?
Delhi CDA Annual Precipitation
1935-2003
Ann Precipitation (mm)
1400
1250
1100
950
800
650
500
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Year
Lake Erie
Since 1935…
Delhi CDA/CS Annual Temperature
16
Maximum
14
Temperature ( °C)
16
14
12
12
10
10
Mean
8
8
6
6
Minimum
4
4
2
2
0
0
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
Year
1985
1995
2005
Annual Temps warmed
~ 0.3C
(Min Temps up to 0.8C)
Annual Precip increased
~ 5-10%
Source: Dianne MacIver, based on daily newspaper archives
from the Dufferin County Museum and Archives
Small Increases = Escalating Infrastructure Damages
“small increases in weather and climate extremes have
the potential to bring large increases in damages to
existing infrastructure”
DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE: Energy, Moisture,
Momentum
April 21/0000 GMT
July 9/1800 GMT
Satellite Imagery
RCTO
Surface Weather Maps
EC Radar Imagery/
Derived Products
Britt CAPPI
Aug 1/ 0025Z
Visible impacts
with extremes…
forest fires
floods
Waves and storms
droughts, heat spells
Saguenay flooding (1996),
26 millions m3 of water
and 9 millions tons of debris
The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions
customers without electricity for up to 30 days
Toronto August 19, 2005
Finch Avenue
During and After
the Storm
Impacts of Atmospheric Hazards on
Wind Energy Generation
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
What’s Happening, and What
Can We Expect
We are not the first to worry about climate change
“The picture’s pretty bleak,
gentlemen…The world’s
climates are changing, the
mammals are taking over,
and we all have a brain about
the size of a walnut.”
Larson, 1985
International science has provided sound
advice for policy discussions
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change
Cautious
1990
First Report
1992
1995
Second Report
1997
Increasing
Confidence
2001
Third Report
Scientists have studied the relationship
between greenhouse gas concentrations
and climate for more than a century
Because humans are changing the
composition of the atmosphere
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
380
360
340
$
320
$
$
$
$
$
Highest concentration in last 400,000 years
$
$
$
$
300
$
$
$
$
$
$
!
$
$
$
'
$
#
!
!
$
$
'$
'$
' '!#!' !'#!
' # ' ' ' !'' !
!$
280
#
#
$
'
'
$
$
'
' ' '
''
260
900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
A number of human factors may have
affected our climate
Global Mean Radiative Forcing (W/m2)
3
2
Aerosols - direct
1
0
Biomass Aerosol
Burning - indirect
Strat.
Ozone Sulphate
Well
mixed
GHGs
Trop.
Ozone
Soot
-1
-2
Climate Forcing Factor
Solar
Modelled response to all forcings agrees best
with observations
THE CHANGING CLIMATE
Mitigation will slow down the rate and magnitude
of change, but the need to adapt is unavoidable
Global Temperature Change (degrees C)
Stabilized at 750 ppm
Baseline
4
3
Stabilized at 550 ppm
2
1
0
1900
2000
2100
Year
2200
December-January-February Mean
Temperature Changes 2020
December-January-February Mean
Temperature Changes 2080
December-January-February % Change in
Precipitation 2020
December – January – February % Change in
Precipitation 2080
Global Climate Model Projections for
the 2050s for the Georgian Bay Area
Annual Mean Temps Warming
2.2 – 4.0 C
2.5 – 12%
Annual Mean Precip Increasing
Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate
Scenario data from CGCM2 and HadCM3
NCAR
Global and Regional Simulations of
Snowpack
Climate Change:
Managing Hazards
CLIMATE CHANGE
Changes in Extremes
Very Likely
 More extreme maximum temperatures (less extreme mins)
 More intense, more frequent, longer lasting heat waves
 More intense, more frequent precipitation events
Likely
 Increased frequency, severity of drought
 Increases in tropical storms/hurricane wind
and precipitation intensity
 Increased risk extreme events such as
tornadoes, hail, lightning, ice storms
Projected Changes in Canadian Extreme Precipitation
100
90
1985
2050
2090
Size of Event (mm)
2090
80
2050
1985
~ 75 mm
70
60
50
40
10
20
40
80
Recurrence time (years)
Projections of changes in average Canadian extreme 24-hour rainfall events
that can be expected to recur once every 10, 20, 40, or 80 years.
(Canadian Model, CGCM1, with Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse
Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases)
Risk of more severe
storms
Weather Hazard Risk Assessment
(Vulnerability Assessment)
Ontario Emergency Management Act
 Involves assessment of risks to weather hazards:
Fog
Lightning
Heavy Rain
Heavy Snow
Hurricanes
Wind Storms
Extreme Heat/Cold
Ice Storms
Drought
Tornadoes
Extreme Air Quality Events
Hazards Website:
http://www.hazards.ca
Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA)
Community Risk Assessment Grid
HELPING
MUNICIPALITIES ADAPT
Source:
EMO, 2003
Trends now included…
soon, climate change projections
1-Day Rainfall
Cold Nights
Trends in Climatic Indicators
Temperature, Precipitation, Air Quality
Hot Days >30C
Ozone & Hot Days
Ontario MOE, 2004
Atmospheric Hazards - Selection Results
Map: .Ontario South Boreal(2300)
Selected 586 places on this map
Parameters:
Hail Frequency in Ontario (Etkin) between 0.50 and 2.00 #
Days/Year and Tornado Frequency in Ontario (Newark) between
0.80 and 2.40 # Events/Year
Moderate-High Hail Frequencies
AND
Moderate-High Tornado Frequencies
Ice Storm ‘98
 Canada’s most costly ($) weather disaster ever
 Up to 95 mm of freezing rain accumulation in
3 separate “storms” over 1st week January
 Impacted 4 provinces; 7 states
 1 million households without power at peak
 Collapsed communication towers, electrical
transmission/distribution systems, phone lines
 Deaths: 28 in Canada; 19 in U.S.
Ice Storm ’98 was Ontario Ice Storm of:
 Greatest Duration
 Areal Extent
 Ice Accumulation
 Impacts (and hydro downtime)
Ice Storm ‘98
24 Ice Storms
(Ontario: 18442002)
Duration
6 days
(3 “events”)
12 hrs – 4 days
Areal Extent
110,000 km2
4,000 - 90,000 km2
95 mm
30 to 70-80 mm
3 ½ weeks
<1 day to 2 weeks
Ice
Accumulation
Maximum
Hydro
Downtime
Source: Klaassen et al., 2003
Tracksof
of the
major ice
Tracks
Major
Icestorms
Storms
which impacted Southern Ontario
during the period 1948-2002
which impacted
Southern/Eastern Ontario
During the period 1948-2002
PERSISTENT
ARCTIC HIGH
Ice Storm 98
Tracks of the January 4-9 /1998
storm systems
Ice Storm ‘98
1948 Jan 1
PERSISTENT
1953 Jan 8-9
ARCTIC HIGH
1953 Jan 9-10
4
1967 Jan 26-27
1968 Jan 16
1
1971 Feb 4-5
1976 Mar 1-5
1986 Dec 24-25
1990 Feb 15-16
2
1997 Mar 14
see separate graphic 1998 Jan 4-9
12 hour storm motion
Centre of the storm
Ice Storm Conclusions….
 Southern Ontario has been on “snow end” of major North
American ice storms in PAST…
 Great Lakes likely moderate risks near shorelines
 Projected increases in freezing rain events with climate
change – especially eastern and northern Ontario
 Societal vulnerability ( ie. adaptation deficit) to ice storms
has already increased, and likely will continue to increase in
future
City of Ottawa By-Law … Winter Road and Sidewalk Maintenance
Ottawa Trends … Observations
Snow decreasing
Rain increasing
Total Annual Freezing Rain Hours (Days) for
Ontario Stations (1953-2001)
5 (2)
6 (3)
8 (3)
MIN
12 (4)
24 (8) 22 (7)
6 (2)
OTTAWA
MAX
37 (10)
10 (4)
Ottawa
14 (5)
100
80
98
95
b=0.174 P=0.343
ZR hours
17 (5)
60
24 (7)
40
14 (5)
20
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
22 (7)
2000
Trends in Occurrence of Freezing Rain??
14 Ontario stations, Montreal
(1953-2001)
12 U.S. Great Lakes region sites
(1973-2000)
Ottawa
100
b=0.174 P=0.343
80
98
95
ZR hours
60
40
20
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
 Risk same or slight decrease
in S Ont and Central Ont along
shorelines
 Increasing trends in E Ont and
N Ont
Great Lakes influence on freezing rain occurrence?
 DECREASED frequency shores Lk Ontario, Lake Erie
Power Line Climatological Design Criteria
 Design criteria of 25-30 mm for much of southern Ontario – less in
northern Ontario
 Study showed risk of major power outages increases when
Freezing rain amounts > ~30 mm
 Potential for long outages/”community disasters” and emergency
shelters when
Freezing rain amounts > ~40 mm
Eastern Ontario most at risk for transmission line failures,
communication tower collapses
CSA/CEA design radial ice amounts (mm on 1 inch conductor)
Increased Vulnerability to Ice Storms
with Climate Change?
in Frequency
of Freezing Rain
nges in FrequencyChanges
of Freezing
Rain
Weather
by 2050
for Ottawa
Toronto and Ottawa
Patterns by 2050
for Patterns
Toronto
and
40
35
Based on: CGCM2 A2
% Change (1958-01 to 2041-60)
34%
Toronto
Toronto
Ottawa
Ottawa
30% 30%
30
Based on: CGCM2 A2
25
20%
20%
20
15
9%
10
7%
9%
7%
5
0
-1%
-5
>= 4 Hrs Frzg Rain
Frz Rain
>=1>=4
hr hrs
Frz
Rain
>= 6 Hrs Frzg Rain
Frz Rain >=4 Frz
hrs Rain >=
Frz6Rain
>= 6 hours
hours
Observed Increases in Freeze-Thaw Cycles?
(preliminary)
Changes in Climate & Spring
Weight Restrictions (SWRs)
(lower weight required in thaw periods)
Earlier spring weight restrictions
In Conclusion....
• Our climate is already changing – community specific
• Particularly vulnerable to Climate extremes and Creeping Cha
• CLIMATE CHANGE will have significant impacts on all aspect
Greater expectations along with aging population and proper
• We will need to:
ADAPT to reduce adaptation deficit, and strengthen human
by improving our prediction, prevention, design and operati
Reduce our GHG emissions to slow the rate of CC