Download Demand reduction is key

Biofuels and their impacts on
Global Climate, People and
Forests
Biofuelwatch
www.biofuelwatch.org.uk
introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK
Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Summary
• Climate Change background urgency to avoid catastropic climate
change
• Public policy debate has been
sidelined
• Agrofuels / biofuels are accelerating
climate change
• Certification = no viable regulation
• Descending the transport emissions
curve - Demand reduction is key
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
UNDP Report – pre-Bali
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Descending the fossil emissions curve
- Demand reduction is key
Current EU energy policy
Biofuels being sold at this level
160
– BUT IS THE OPPOSITE
140
TRUE?
120 90% carbon emission
reduction
needed
100
Energy efficiency and energy
URGENTLY!
reduction
80
Carbon management – use less carbon
60
40
Decarbonise – switch from carbon completely
20
November 2007
1990
2000
2010
Biofuels and
their impacts
2020
Emission sources
• Deforestation, agriculture and peat
• Anthropogenic energy
From Stern
Report
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Positive feedbacks – not on
political radar
• IPCC Assessment Reports are scientifically
conservative.
– Are constrained by what is politically and
economically acceptable.
– Are also some two years out of date when
published.
• Dynamic positive feedbacks – emerging
science during last 2 years
• All Party Parliamentary Climate Change
Group (APPCCG) trying to highlight
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
US / EU Biofuel Policy –
going off the graph
EU – 10% by
2020 (1% now)
US – 20% by
2020 (4% now)
2010
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
2020
Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers
• Government and corporate subsidy and
promotion
• Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms
– Year-on-year economic growth
– Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics
• Short term “energy security” fix
– Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq
– Stabilising Oil price?
– EU / US “Oil independence”
• New global mega-industry and infrastructure
–
–
–
–
agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors
car manufacturers avoid more efficient vehicles
refining, tankage and shipping sectors
commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn)
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Agrofuels –
no public policy debate
• Even current 1% EU penetration has
taken us into ‘downstream’ phase of
implementation
• Yet, there has been no consistent or
complete scientific and policy
scrutiny
• Bypassed by Governments and
industry
• Public policy debate is urgently
needed – moratorium is needed to
facilitate this
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Agrofuel issues
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) balances
• Environmental impacts:
Deforestation, loss of habitats /
biodiversity, water depletion, soil
erosion, chemicals
• Social impacts:
Poverty, land grabbing, land conflicts,
human rights, labour, food security and
sovereignty
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Food vs Fuel
FAO Agricultural Outlook, July 2007
• “increased demand for biofuels is
causing fundamental changes to
agricultural markets that could drive
up world prices for many farm
products”
FAO, September 2007
• “Developing countries face serious
social unrest as they struggle to cope
with soaring food prices”
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Food vs Fuel
• Low-Income FoodDeficit countries
(LIFDCs) :: Social
unrest / food riots
• Feed prices 
• Huge industry denial
• Food sovereignty
– Best land taken for
agrofuels
– Even import poor
quality food
• 16 million starve per
1% commodity price
rise
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Jean Ziegler
• UN Special Rapporteur on the “Right
to Food”
• Grave concern over impact of
biofuels on food security and
starvation
• October 25th 2007 – called for a 5
year moratorium on biofuels at UN
General Assembly
• Backed by Secretary General
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Bioenergy in Development
• Small scale production in community FOR
COMMUNITY beneficial
– especially women’s health
– Low power electricity generation
• BUT governments looking to big export
markets – driven by EU (and US) targets
– Local markets governed by global market
– No place for small farmers
• African case – lack of clarity of policy
– Highlighted in African Biodiversity Network
report
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Impacts on People
• Use of bioenergy in rural economies
– Could help – especially women BUT
– Large scale monocultures (eg 11,200 people to
be evicted by Sun Biofuels Jatropha plantation
in Tanzania)
– Governments welcome in large companies to
boost export market
• Land grabbing
– Governments allow companies to get around
land laws
– Some 2 billion hectares of Southern land up for
recolonisation
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Impacts on People
• Human rights
– Pesticide use (especially with GM varieties etc)
– Deforestation causing health problems
– Land conflicts – paramilitaries in Indonesia and
Colombia
– Violent evictions and murders
• Displaced peoples
– UN warns up 60 million biofuel refugees
– Displaced to less than subsistence rural
existence, or to the urban poor in mega cities
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Jatropha 1
• Huge land rights issues in countries like
India (Guardian, 25/10/07)
• Contracts biaised to companies not small
farmers
• Fertiliser and irrigation needed for first 3
years
• Oxfam warn that better yields will come
from food land
– Even though Jatropha can grown on marginal
land it will compete with food land
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Jatropha 2
• Use of ‘waste’ land by pastoralists etc not
accounted for
• Head of World Institute of Sustainable
Energy in Pune, G.M. Pillai, warns that
promotion of jatropha for biodiesel is likely
to lead to the destruction of primary and
secondary forests in India, with serious
consequences for biodiversity.
• Invasive plant drives biodiversity loss
– Poisonous to animals etc
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Hundreds of NGOs in
Latin America, Asia
and Africa have
spoken out against
large-scale biofuel
monocultures.
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Moratorium calls
• Monbiot, April 2007, Guardian
• Southern and Northern NGOs (over
150), July 2007
– Imports into EU
– Large scale mono cultures
• Jean Ziegler, UN, October 2007
– ‘crime against humanity’
• African NGOs (30)
– November 2007, pre-Bali
– No global targets, no more African dev.
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
From African BN document
• “In Uganda, there is an apparent failure to
recognise that by encouraging a
favourable climate for agrofuels, foreign
companies focussed on export are likely to
take over the direction of biofuel
production” Timothy Byakola, Uganda
• “The most fertile lands, with best access
to water are being targeted, even though
these lands are already being used for
food production by small-scale farmers”
Abdallah Mkindee, Tanzania
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
From African BN document
• “There seems to be a lack of clarity over
whether investment and targets are aimed
at production of biofuels for the Zambian
market or for export. It seems that
companies such as D1 Oils may be
promoting biofuels as a domestic energy
strategy, in order to open the door to
amenable legislation, while really
intending to focus biofuel production on
the export market”. Matonga Mundia,
Zambia
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Sawit Watch, Indonesian NGO
• “Palm oil for biofuels increases social
conflicts and undermines land reform
in Indonesia…It is unavoidable that,
as a consequence of Europe's
biofuels policy, the land rights of
indigenous peoples and local
communities will be relinquished
further, and that food security will be
undermined and lands for
agricultural purposes and
subsistence livelihoods will diminish.”
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the
Earth Nigeria
• “It is a push by industry to make
another scramble for Africa, grab the
land and continue with business as
usual. The industrial bio-energy
push to do increased bio-energy
demand will be nothing other than
an effort at extending the frontiers of
neo-colonialism in its continued
march on the back of the fabled
market forces”
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Landless Movement of Brazil (MST)
• “We can't call this a ‘bio-fuels program’.
We certainly can't call it a ‘bio-diesel
program’. Such phrases use the prefix
‘bio-‘ to subtly imply that the energy in
question comes from ‘life’ in general. This
is illegitimate and manipulative. We need
to find a term in every language that
describes the situation more accurately, a
term like agro-fuel. This term refers
specifically to energy created from plant
products grown through agriculture.”
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
from a declaration by Latin
American NGOs
• “We want food sovereignty, not
biofuels…While Europeans maintain their
lifestyle based on automobile culture, the
population of Southern countries will have
less and less land for food crops and will
loose its food sovereignty…We are
therefore appealing to the governments
and people of the European Union
countries to seek solutions that do not
worsen the already dramatic social and
environmental situation of the peoples of
Latin America, Asia and Africa. “
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Do Agrofuels save emissions?
• Agrofuel infrastructure is built on
Fossil Fuel infrastructure
– Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based
– fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous
oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon
emissions
– Feedstock transport, shipping, ports
– Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ;
process chemicals
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
N20 needs further study
• microbes convert N fertiliser to N2O
– NEW STUDY by Nobel prizewinner Paul Crutzen, August
2007 : 3 to 5 per cent = twice the widely accepted
figure of 2 per cent used by the International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC).
• oilseed rape biodiesel, for example, is up to 70%
worse for the climate than fossil fuel diesel (also
corn ethanol)
• UK and EU Biofuels policy and certification
schemes in scientific doubt
• N2O emissions – chemical fertilizer impact
greater in tropics
• Both EU home grown biofuels and tropical
imports
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
UK Government figures NOW
in complete scientific doubt
• From LowCVP
presentation to UK
Bioenergy
conference Sept
2007
Corn Ethanol -50%
November 2007
Oil Seed rape
biodiesel -70%
Biofuels and their impacts
Massive destruction beyond
N2O - Agrofuels are
accelerating climate change
Fires to clear land for palm oil,
Kalimantan
Photo by Nordin, Save our Borneo
Deforestation for oil palms,
Colombia
New Scientist 1/12/07
• including the one-off releases from
deforestation, each hectare of peatland
drained for palm oil will emit between
3750 and 5400 tonnes over the next 25
years, according to Jack Rieley, a tropical
peatlands specialist at the University of
Nottingham, UK. Even if the palm oil is
used as biofuel, a hectare's output will
save only 150 tonnes in vehicle emissions
over the period, meaning 25 to 36 times
as much carbon will be emitted as is
saved.
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Peat drainage and destruction
Drainage
• Dry peat - oxidises and, over time, emits
all its carbon as CO2. 42-50 billion tonnes
of carbon stored in those SE Asian
peatlands.
Fires
• Many set by plantation companies, greatly
accelerate the loss of carbon.
• Of the 27.1 million hectares of peatland in
South-east Asia, 12 million hectares are
deforested and mostly drained.
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Agrofuels as a new driver of
peatland destruction
Indonesia plans 20 million hectares new oil
palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand.
$17.4 billion investment deals in Indonesian
palm oil agreed this year.
According to 2006 FAO report, growth in
European rapeseed oil biodiesel has
significantly pushed up global palm oil
prices.
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Ecological Impacts
• Massive land use
change
– Renton Righelato
and Dominick V.
Spracklen, Science,
August 2007
– Ecological
restoration and
forestation would
sequester 2-9 more
carbon than biofuels
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Greenpeace report
• Where can big emissions be cut
quickly and cost effectively?
• CUT deforestation – 2Gt CO2 / yr
• STOP SE ASIA Peat fires – 1.3Gt
• Regenerate peat lands – 0.5Gt
– 8% of current GHGs
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Massive
Massive
emission
land-useexports
change in
from
industralised
global South, and
nations
crop commodity
to global South
traffic
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Emission trickery
Exporting emissions
from Northern
transport to Southern
agriculture and landuse
NB: Soil + Peat
not included
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Certification context
• Governments’
response to no
public policy debate
is to develop
‘certification
schemes’ or
‘sustainability
criteria’
• Calls for
international scheme
(UK Govt., Ford etc) Biofuels and their impacts
November 2007
Certification schemes
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) balances
–URGENT need for full lifecycle,
whole system (macro) carbon
balance studies
• Direct and indirect environmental impacts:
Deforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity,
water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals
• Direct and indirect social impacts:
Poverty, land conflicts, human rights, labour,
food security and sovereignty
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Sustainability criteria
• Driven by interests of industry and
government
• Displacement / leakage not handled
– Existing agriculture displaced by agrofuels
moves into new areas
• Macro impacts through commodity price
shifts not handled
– Amazon deforestation ←→ soy price
• US Corn for ethanol displaces US soy => soy price
– EU oilseed rape use causes palm oil prices
causes palm oil expansion
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
UK RTFO and UK Policy
• No sustainability criteria until 2011
• Holes in methodology
– Only partial reporting- 50% in
2007/2008
– Peat land before 2005 ‘written off’ – yet
0.5Gt CO2 could be saved by reflooding
• The Palm oil from such land will be sold as
‘good’ biofuel under current UK regulation
• April 15th 2008 – April Biofools Day
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Descending the transport emissions
curve - Demand reduction is key
160Reduce vehicle emissions by 50%
Current EU energy policy
- smaller, more efficient vehicles
140
120
100
90% carbon
Reduce
journeys –emission
planning, modal shift,
80
60
decouple needed
transport
reduction
URGENTLY!
from economy
Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids
40
Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power
?
20
November 2007
1990
2000
2010
Biofuels and
their impacts
2020
The Climate Context
• 1st generation biofuels
– Scientific doubt on N20 for all fuel supply
chains including EU oilseed rape
– Already a climate disaster
• Eg Indonesian peat lands
• Deforestation tropics
• Yet mass-scale infrastructure and investment
ready
for
Wend are
currently
in ‘first generation’
• 2 generation biofuels
world
there
is a gap to any viable
– 15-20– years
to develop
– BUT emissions
must be
now generation’
second
generation
– cut
‘first
– Biohazards (even now in R&D)
problems
must
beandaddressed
NOW
– Deforestation
boreal
temporate
•   Transport sectorBiofuels
DEMAND
and their impacts
REDUCTION
November 2007
Recent Publications
http://www.grain.org/seedling_files/seed-07-07-en.pdf
http://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/docs/ABN_Agro.pdf
http://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/docs/agrofuels_reality_check.pdf
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Recent Publications 2
http://www.oxfam.org/en/files/bn_biofuelling_poverty_0711.pdf
http://tinyurl.com/3c7esp (Greenpeace)
http://tinyurl.com/3archk (FoEE)
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
JOIN THE BLESSED UNREST
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Social : Environmental : Indigenous
The only way we are
going to put out
the environmental
fire is to get on the
social justice bus
and heal our
wounds, because
in the end, there is
only one bus.
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
BLESSED UNREST
• Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo
group - send a blank email to
[email protected]
• www.biofuelwatch.org.uk
• [email protected]
• National Week of Local Action
on Agrofuels from Saturday,
26th January 2008
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Peat Destruction 2
•
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Deforestation
• “with partial deforestation the entire
landscape could become drier and a
domino effect could occur producing
a ‘tipping point’ affecting the whole
forest”.
Conclusion of recent scientific conference
• Amazon drying out – die-back threat
increasing - 120 billion tonnes of
carbon dioxide
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Amazon Deforestation and
Drought
Deforestation in Novo Progreso,
Brazil ; Alberto Cesar/Greenpeace/AP
November 2007
Amazon drought 2005, Lake Rei
Biofuels and their impacts
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
UK Government figures NOW
in complete scientific doubt
• From LowCVP presentation to UK
Bioenergy conference Sept 2007
Unaccounted for N20
???
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Crop burning / Forest fires / Soya
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Ecological Impacts
Biodiversity
• Biodiversity hotspots hidden by official
gazetting in Malaysia/Indonesia
• Biofuel threat to Great Apes highlighted by
Jane Goodall, Richard Leakey and others
Set-aside in EU – creating a gap in
environmental management
• 45% of Europe’s butterflies, 80% declines
in bee diversity and 70% declines in the
diversity of wild flowers
• France – little bustard,Austrian bird of
prey – depend on set-aside for survival
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Bio-agrofuels are nonsense at
the system level
• THE DILUTION FACTOR - 1% biofuels today
– Assume 10% C emissions savings litre for litre
– Total saving = 0.1% saving globally
• Most optimistic 2020 : 5% BFs – 0.5% savings
• Same savings can be made by:
– Each driver driving 0.5% less (ie 50 miles for UK driver)
– OR Each driver goes 2 mph slower
– OR Tyres inflated properly
• 20% - 50% DEMAND REDUCTION transport
sector savings could be achieved in 10-20 years
– Sustainable transport, modal shift, social planning - workhome relocation etc
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
Runaway Climate Change
• Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt
• Siberian Tundra melt (Methane)
• Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates
• Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet
• Melting / break up of West Antartica
Ice Sheet
• Switching off of Gulf Stream
• Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon
sinks
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
How much warming / ghgs is safe?
• None! Present ‘Radiative forcings’ already over
safe levels
• Total Greenhouse Gases – 460 ppm CO2e
• 2˚C warming is maximum to avoid runaway
climate change – most scientists think 450-550
ppm C02e equivalents is limit
• Jim Hansen (NASA) says 1.8˚C max.
- Siberian Tundra close to melting
- C02 already emitted but not forced=0.6˚C
• We are experiencing effects from 30 years
ago
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Arctic 2007 Summer Ice Melt
Non-linear effect?
November 2007
Biofuels and their impacts