Download what are the links between population dynamics and climate

WHAT ARE THE LINKS BETWEEN POPULATION
DYNAMICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE?
AUTHOR NAME: ‘MANTOA MABELE
AUTHOR ADDRESS: P.O. BOX 270, MAZENOD 160, MASERU.
INSTITUTION: MINISTRY OF PLANNING
DEPARTMENT: BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MASERU, LESOTHO
Email address: [email protected] or [email protected]
ABSTRACT
Population dynamics and climate change has been a greater concern worldwide as there
has not been a simple relationship found. Hence climate change has been described as the biggest
health threat of the 21st century. This is described as a result of high consumption of fossil fuel
and greenhouse gases in the developed countries. Population growth however is said to be an
important variable that can worsen the impact of climate change in this complex relationship.
Researchers further indicate that rapid population growth endangers human development,
poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change.
The paper will review the extent to which population dynamics have impacted on climate
change and economic development as Lesotho population depend on natural resources for
livelihood though are faced with climate and environmental challenges.
The findings indicate that carbon emissions per capita are very low in Lesotho as most of
the emissions that the nation produces come from land use change and the agriculture and energy
sectors however rely heavily on the ecosystem goods and services to support livelihoods hence
limited land available for agricultural activity. This has led to extensive land degradation, loss of
biodiversity and low agricultural productivity. The decrease in farmland adds to a growing fear
of the limits to food production. Most of the households were not connected to electricity (73.3
percent), 2011/12 CMS. This force people to harvest biomass to satisfy their energy needs, thus
Lesotho currently relies on biomass for 72 percent of its energy needs. On the other hand, there
is an improvement with access to safe drinking water in the urban areas from 62 percent in 1996
to 73.9 percent in 2006 population census.
Although urbanization is the driving force for modernization, economic growth and
development, there is increasing concern about the effects of expanding cities, principally on
human health, livelihoods and the environment. In Lesotho, there has been a declining
population in rural areas from 1996 to 2011 and an increasing pattern in urban areas from 16.9
percent in 1996 to 23.7 percent in 2011, thus Lesotho is increasingly becoming urbanized.
1
There has been some progress though at a low base, in terms of setting aside protected
areas for the conservation of biodiversity. However, a large number of plant and animal
communities remain either endangered or critically endangered.
Although currently personal transport, home-heating and ventilation do not contribute
much to emissions in Lesotho than they have in other countries but there is need for monitoring
as electrification levels increased and personal vehicle ownership becomes more commonplace.
Furthermore, access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation is still pronounced in the rural
areas.
Keywords: Population Dynamics, Climate Change and Environmental Challenge
1.1 Introduction
Climate change is one of the most critical environmental problems faced by mankind in
recent decades and its consequences are by no means easy to prevent. It is one of the greatest
economic threats facing the planet and humanity and is characterized by the occurrence of
natural disasters (extreme weather conditions, floods and storm). Unfortunately, Africa is the
most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and West Africa is a key region of concern.
Studies showed that Africa will be cooked with five degree temperature increases unavoidable
by mid-century leaving an estimated 180 million deaths on the continent. The effect to carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions not being absorbed fully by the oceans came back in the 1950s whereby
several authors emphasized that there will be a significant amount in the atmosphere that would
eventually warm the earth while water vapour feedback will enhance warming as well as large
dust cloud from cities burnings (i.e coal burning power). Hunter (2000) asserts that humans
contribute to CO2 emissions by fossil fuel through energy consumption and industrial production.
In addition, Stephenson, Newman and Mayhew (2010:151) argued that “climate change is driven
more by consumer behavior than simply population numbers”, that is climate change is caused
by humans than natural, indicating that population size and growth are important in the emission
of greenhouse gases.
Rapid population growth became a global public concern in the early post-World War II
as it was associated with harming the economic and social development (Hunter, 2000; Ryder,
2010; Stephenson, Newman and Mayhew, 2010). Lesthaeghe (2010) posits that governments
developed programs and policies aimed at reducing fertility faster through family planning
(hormonal contraception’s that were suited for postponing and spacing births) which was highly
successful in the western countries in much of the rest of the world. Hunter (2000) further
articulate that in the twentieth century population growth is again in the forefront linked with
discernable levels of environmental degradation. Population growth and size have a devastating
impact on the environment primarily through high usage of natural resources, production of
wastes related with the stresses on the biodiversity, air, water pollution and increased pressure on
arable land (Nagdeve, 2002). As one can recall Thomas Multhus theorem when he showed that
unrestricted population growth would outstrip the ability of the Earth to provide subsistence.
2
This is a concern based on the livelihoods of today’s needs without indulging the well-being of
future generations (Mutunga, Zulu and De Souza, 2012).
The prospects of population increase worldwide have been emphasized in many
researches where it was gauged to be more in the developing countries. Stephenson, Newman
and Mayhew (2010) assert that world population has reached 6.8 billion where 82 percent of it
live in less developed countries which will speed up the environmental degradation. This may be
the result due to the unmet needs of effective family planning (also reduce morbidity and
maternal mortality) to most of sub-Saharan African women even if they want to avoid pregnancy
(Mutunga, Zulu and De Souza, 2012; PSN, 2010). A rapidly increasing population (population
size, growth, density, age structure, migration and urbanization) create pressure on the
environment and natural resources (availability of fresh water, land degradation, deforestation
and soil erosion through over-grazing). These also have impact on the increasing number of
people living in extreme poverty due to a decline in agricultural production which become more
urgent to vulnerability of climate change. Mutunga, Zulu and De Souza (2012) indicated that the
low agricultural productivity resulted from drought, floods and increasing temperatures which
contributes to countries vulnerability to food shortages (food insecurity) which is expected to be
worse if the condition still persist in the future. The rural dwellers generally have poor
infrastructure and market distribution systems and have more land areas prone to floods and
rising sea levels. Conversely, severe water scarcity/shortage is expected as the results of change
in climate that is caused by adverse changing weather conditions (uncertain rain patterns) and
increase in population growth which put pressure and impedes access to fresh water (PSN,
2010). This will have an effect on small scale farmers and subsistence farmers as they are most
vulnerable to the effects of water shortages and droughts and will have huge implications on
food security.
Migration also plays a vital role in the association between population and climate
change as it is the root cause of increase in urbanization worldwide. Climate change could lead
to even warmer temperatures in cities. This would increase the demand for electricity in the
summer to run air conditioning, which in turn would increase air pollution and greenhouse gas
emissions from power plants. Rapid urbanization faces major challenges as it becomes the prime
location of health problems (infectious diseases), poor provision of basic needs and services
(housing, transport and sewage disposal facilities) and stimulating land degradation. Stephenson,
Newman and Mayhew (2010) postulate that because of climate change that exacerbates these
problems, high rural-urban migration laid massive pressure on the limited infrastructures in
urban areas. The ICDP report has indicated that in some regions over half of the total population
lives in urban agglomerations. Changes in climate affect the average weather conditions that we
are accustomed to; hence weather and climate play a significant role in people's health.
Many researchers have indicated that the principle cause of climate change is high
consumption in developed countries, while the impact of climate change will be worst on poor
people in developing countries which are already home to most of the world's poor and
malnourished people. The paper will review the extent to which population dynamics have
3
impacted on climate change and economic development as Lesotho population depend on natural
resources for livelihood though are faced with climate and environmental challenges.
1.2 Background of Lesotho
Lesotho’s population is classified as young population because population aged below 15
years account for 33.7 percent of the total population. The population growth increased by 0.08
percent between 1996 and 2006 censuses while total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 3.5
children in 2006 census to 3.4 children per woman in 2011 Lesotho Demographic Survey (LDS).
There has also been an improvement in the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) with increase
from 40.6 percent in 2001 LDS, 47.0 percent in 2009 LDHS and 50.7 percent in 2011 LDS.
Although Lesotho is classified among the least urbanized regions it is experiencing a growth of
urbanization by decades. The percentage of urban population increased from 11.8 percent in
1986, 16.9 percent in 1996, 22.6 percent in 2006 and 23.7 percent in 2011 LDS. Additionally,
population residing in rural areas declined from 85 percent in 1996 to 76.3 percent in 2011. The
growth of the garment industry has stimulated an increase in urban migration and the urban
population has been growing rapidly, creating additional demands for reliable residential
supplies. However, it has been argued that the locations of these industries were not planned well
because they are within villages where they tend to cause serious environmental health hazards.
In one industrial area (Ha Thetsane) there is an industry that produces jeans and after washing
the material they spill the contaminated water into the river that passes through this village where
sometimes children play with the water and could catch water borne diseases.
Changes in land use are among the important driving global climate change. According to
the 2006 census report land cover area for the country amits to 30 355km2 and the arable land has
declined by nearly 10 percent from 3134km2 in 1996 to only 2833km in 2006 mostly as a result
of soil erosion. The report further indicated that 77 percent of Lesotho’s population resides in
rural areas and it is estimated that 80 percent of this rural population depends to a large extent on
agriculture for their livelihoods.
Land erosion in Lesotho occurs in the context of increasing dependence of the population
on land and high levels of poverty, these factors interact in something of a vicious cycle. As
dependence of the population increases (growth of human settlements) there is pressure on the
land to be made more productive to feed an increasing number of citizens, precisely at the time
when the highly stressed soil needs to be turned away from agricultural production to allow it to
recover the organic content that will allow it to sustain the future growth and the integrity of the
landscape. Furthermore, due to mountainous terrain the soil eco-system in Lesotho is very fragile
and susceptible to erosion. Lesotho losses about 730,771 tonnes and 38,842,399 tonnes of soil
per year as a result of gully erosion, sheet and rill erosion respectively, weakening the capacity of
the soils to support the country’s biological and economical well-being. This lead to severe food
insecurity and staple food prices steadily increasing.
Lesotho’s climate is known with hot and humid summers and cold winters. However, our
country is vulnerable to a range of natural disasters and climate change. Climate change has
gradually hit Lesotho with the effects of high temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns and
more frequent weather related disasters that have increased in the recent past with devastating
4
impacts on agricultural output and water supplies (recently winters can be brutally cold and be
extremely long while the summers are extremely dry, prolonged drought and sudden floods).
Lesotho Meteorology Service (LMS) report has shown a prediction that there shall be warmer
future climate conditions in Lesotho with lower precipitation particularly in the spring and
summer seasons, a higher precipitation in winter and a gradually increasing precipitation in late
autumn. Early in 2011, Lesotho experienced the heaviest rains in decades, resulting not only in
loss of agricultural output but also damage to infrastructure: power grids have been destroyed,
roads have been swept away and bridges have collapsed. Furthermore, the recent agricultural
report (2010) showed that low agricultural output stems from other factors, including flood,
drought, hail, frost and heavy snowfall; rampant soil erosion and concomitant soil fertility loss
(loss of nutrients). For instance in the last ten years, the agricultural seasons which experienced
severe drought were 2002/03 and 2006/2007, with the latter being identified as the worst drought
in 30 years. This may suggest increased activity in frontal systems which may result in heavier
snowfall occurrence and strong devastating winds which often bring disasters and human
suffering.
Water availability is set to diminish due to the recurring of drought. LMS further
indicated that due to the estimated lower run off, current population growth rate, climate and a
fresh water availability of 5.43km3 per annum, it is estimated that the country will enter a water
stress period of less than 1700m3 per capita per year by year 2019 and water scarcity period of
less than 1000m3 per capita per year by year 2062. Moreover, dry conditions for most of the year
would lead to shrinking of surface and ground water resources, great and robust rivers been
reduced, dry springs and wells and high borehole costs, reduced yields of many water sources
and severe water stress particularly for the rural population who mainly depend on ground water.
Poverty also encourages poor people to rely on the little natural resources (especially
biomass) that remain to keep the landscape intact as fuel, exacerbating the aforementioned
problems. The use of animal dung as fuel also creates issues of environmental sustainability
though the fact is they do not have factual prospects of gaining access to other types of resources
compare to rich people. Majority of Basotho especially in the rural areas depend on biomass for
cooking and heating for energy needs while putting pressure on the valuable natural resource.
Road transport accounts for a major share of air pollution load in mega cities. In Lesotho,
there has been an increase in traffic congestion due to the increase in personal vehicle ownership
since the year 2000 hence the vehicular pollution has also increased constituting to air pollution
which causes respiratory diseases such as asthma.
1.3 Study Methods and Coverage
The analysis used quantitative research methods to examine links between population
dynamics and climate change for sustainable development. The report covers data from different
surveys held by the department as well as other ministries in collaboration with. Variables
included are the agricultural production, source of energy for cooking, diseases related to air
pollution affecting the climate.
5
2.1 Findings
2.1.1 Crop Yield Trend
This section provides information on maize, sorghum and wheat yield trend for the
Agricultural years 2008/2009 to 2011/2012 measured in metric tonnes per hectare (mt/ha).
Figure 1 depicts the main three types of crops (staple food) yield trend for a period of
four conservative years. It confirms what have been aforementioned factors that there has been a
decline in the agricultural production. It can be observed that the yield increased from 2008/2009
to 2009/2010 for all the crops then a decline to 2011/2012 Agricultural year.
Figure 1: Distribution for Crops Yield for the period 2008/2009-2011/2012
1.6
1.47
1.4
1.2
Yield
1
1.00
0.91
0.86
0.8
0.72
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.42
0.2
0.23
0.63
Maize
Sorghum
0.53
0.51
0.41
Wheat
0
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
Year
Source: Lesotho Agricultural Years
2.1.2 Source of Energy Used for Cooking in Urban/Rural Residence
The burning of dung, firewood (woody biomass), charcoal and other forms of bio energy
have long been important for cooking and heating of homes. Biomass is an important source of
household energy for many people, especially in rural communities of developing countries.
Figure 2 portrays energy sources used for cooking by urban/rural residence. It is
illustrated in the figure that 71.3 percent of rural residents use Wood for cooking, followed by
those who use Gas and Paraffin with 15.7 percent and 7.9 percent respectively. The main sources
for cooking in the urban areas are Gas, Paraffin and Electricity with 47.8 percent, 22.6 percent
and 21.4 percent respectively.
6
Figure 2: Source of Energy for Cooking by Urban/Rural Residence
80
71.3
70
Percent
60
50
47.8
40
Urban
30
22.6
21.4
20
Rural
15.7
7.9
10
2.7
0
Electricity
8.0
0.0 0.1
Gas
Paraffin
Coal
0.1 1.9
0.0 0.3
0.1 0.1
Dung
Crop
waste
Other
Wood
Source of Energy for Cooking
Source: 2011 Lesotho Demographic Survey
2.1.3 Diseases Related to air pollution
Table 3 shows number of patients by type of disease for the period (2007 to 2011). It can
be observed from the table that the number of patients with Asthma was high for all the years.
The number of patients with Asthma has been increasing except in 2009, where a decrease was
observed from 7,649 patients in 2008 to 7,024 patients in 2009. The highest number of patients
with Lung Cancer and Allergies were high in 2008 with 15 and 30 respectively.
Table 3: Number of patients by Type of Disease for the years 2007 to 2011
Years
Type of Disease
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
5
15
9
9
6
6,773
7,649
7,024
7,491
9,236
28
30
19
16
20
Lung Cancer
Asthma
Allergies
Source: Ministry of Health
3.1 Recommendations
 An effective early-warning system must be put in place to effectively respond to climate
related natural disasters thereby assisting communities to adapt and minimize adverse
impacts of climate change.
7
 Wetlands are extremely important environmental ecosystems as they provide a unique
habitat for several plant and animal species. Climate change exacerbates the deterioration
of wetland conditions then it is crucial to conduct public awareness campaigns on the
importance, sustainable use and conservation of wetlands.
 The developed countries are claiming that their dangerous carbon emissions have come
down, but they need to do more like to expand energy efficiency standards for appliances,
accelerate clean energy development on public lands and use the Clean Air Act to tackle
greenhouse gas emissions in the power and energy sectors. The Environmental Protection
Agency has to establish carbon emissions standards for new power plants as well as to
tackle regulations on existing power plants.
 Changes in cultivation patterns can include the reduction of fertilizer use, better
management of crop production, improvement of livestock diets and better management
of their manure. In addition, governments have an important role to play in enforcing
land-use policies which discourage slash and burn expansion, extensive livestock rearing
and raising opportunities for rural employment. Considerable investment will be needed,
however, to utilize soil and water resources more efficiently in a changed climate.
REFERENCE
Lesthaeghe, R. (2010) The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition, Population
and Development Review; 36(2).
Mutunga, C., Zulu, E and De Souza, R.M. 2012. “Population Dynamics, Climate Change and
Sustainable Development in Africa” Population Action International and African Institute
for Development Policy.
Nagdeve, D. 2002. “Environment and Health in India” International Institute for Population
Sciences, India.
PSN (2010). “Population and Climate Change” Briefing Paper.
Ryder, N. (2010) Sociology of Fertility Reduction, Population and Development Review; 36(2).
Stephenson, J., Newman, K and Mayhew, S. (2010), Population Dynamics and Climate Change:
what are the links? Journal of Public Health, (32) 2: 150-156.
8