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21 January 2008 Background Paper REGIONAL AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE; PROMOTING COST-EFFECTIVE INTEGRATED STRATEGIES In December 2007 the Global Atmospheric Pollution Forum was awarded a grant from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) to develop a programme and hold a major international conference on the co-benefits of controlling air pollution and greenhouse gases. The conference will be held in the autumn of 2008. The location of the conference has yet to be determined. The conference and Forum programme will focus on three major themes: 1. Towards optimizing integrated strategies for air pollution and climate change; 2. Potential regional, hemispheric and global frameworks for managing air pollution and their relevance to and interaction with the climate change community; and 3. Delivering co-benefits at urban, national and regional scales in developing regions. This is the second major grant the Forum has received from Sida. Background and Overview The health and environmental effects associated with air pollution – particularly in developing nations – are so significant that there is an urgent need to promote more effective international systems and frameworks for addressing these problems at the local, regional and hemispheric scales. At the same time there are critical, welldocumented linkages between air pollution and climate change – in terms of sources and effects - and emerging evidence of substantial potential co-benefits and synergies from integrated control strategies that address both issues together. However, the air pollution and climate change communities have until now moved in separate policy and science arenas, as evidenced by the very low attention paid to air pollution in the recent IPCC reports. Also, whilst the climate change community is well organised globally, the air pollution community is more focussed at the local, national and regional scales, again hindering convergent approaches. Given the urgency of tackling climate change, it is now essential to look for opportunities to develop air pollution strategies that facilitate - rather than impede efforts to tackle climate change. This is especially important for developing countries where resources are scarce. Many of these countries are facing growing air pollution challenges, are in the early stages of developing air pollution control programmes, and are beginning to consider greenhouse gas reduction strategies. 1 The Global Atmospheric Pollution Forum is planning a programme that will include organizing a major conference in autumn 2008, on the policies and systems required to ensure that: 1) the scientific and policy linkages between air pollution and climate change are well articulated to policy makers and in a form that can be acted upon; 2) the co-benefits of mitigation options and their implementation potential are understood for different parts of the world; and 3) emerging regional, hemispheric and global air pollution strategies are optimised in terms of their parallel potential for CO2 emission reduction, and can be the basis for integrated climate change-air pollution reduction strategies relevant to the needs of developing nations. The overall objective is to help reduce the costs and time-scales currently involved in addressing air pollution and climate issues separately by encouraging the development of integrated, synergistic strategies at the regional, hemispheric and global scales. Aims of the Programme The specific aim of the programme and conference is to develop proposals for more effective joint strategies for abating climate and pollution problems to be relevant at regional, national and urban scales: - Building upon the Forum’s current work on options for the long-term institutional arrangement for the management of air pollution at regional, hemispheric and global scales, the project aims to produce recommendations on how those options can be further developed and pursued in ways which can create synergies with climate change policy development through collaboration with the global climate change community; - Bringing together and reviewing the recent work, mainly in developed countries, on the co-benefits from policy measures which jointly abate climate change and pollution, and to promote a process for relating this more directly than at present to the different policy needs and opportunities in developing countries, primarily in Asia, where emissions are rapidly increasing; and - Utilising the resources of the Forum – bringing together the main governmental and non-governmental bodies concerned with regional and global pollution – to disseminate the conclusions and options effectively in developing countries. Dissemination to the wider climate change community will be equally important. Relevance of the Project The growth in local, regional and hemispheric air pollution, and the fact that they are closely linked to climate change, is already widely recognised. But the implications of this - and opportunities foregone by not adequately acting on it - are not widely appreciated. It is arguable that, in terms of its scale and the potential benefits from addressing it, this should now be one of the priority concerns for climate policy. 2 The underlying problems are, in summary: - The long-range transport of air pollution at regional hemispheric and global scales is rising, impacting on human health, the environment and economies. It is a significant element in a global toll of advanced deaths from pollution which numbers over 800,000 deaths per year from outdoor air pollution, primarily in the developing world. Yet there is no international framework for promoting consensus on the problem and potential solutions similar, for instance, to UNFCCC for climate change. Progressive development of an effective air pollution framework is now urgent. - The absence of such a framework also means that there is no effective route for addressing the implications of the interaction of climate change and air pollution through a connection to the climate change community. Indeed the two issues are now so closely linked that it no longer makes sense, at the international scale, to see them as separate issues. But the implications of addressing them together have to be thought through, as abating air pollution can have positive outcomes for pollutants such as black carbon (soot) but can also exacerbate global warming (e.g. the reduction in sulphur-based aerosol pollutants reducing the cooling effect on the earth’s climate). - Failure to work through the implications of the relationship and to see what they imply for the way in which regional and global air pollution are managed has immediate practical implications for everyday policy. Because they have the same sources there are many potential co-benefits and synergies from bringing together the policy measures to address air pollution and greenhouse gases at urban, national and regional scales. This is appreciated in some developed countries, and integrated strategies are beginning to emerge, but there is an urgent need to interpret it for the circumstances of developing countries where a joint approach could potentially have greatest benefit. The implications of failing to act in this area are significant. The impacts of regional, hemispheric and global air pollution will not be tackled without the development of new policy options and new institutional processes. While, over time, the reductions in pollution which have been seen in recent decades in western countries should progressively emerge elsewhere, this will be a very long and costly process in terms of health and sustainable development. It is important therefore to focus on ways to speed that process and to find short cuts. At the same time the failure to adapt such policies and processes to facilitate climate change abatement, will miss major opportunities to reduce its long-term costs and time scale. Planned Activities and Outputs Outputs from the programme will include: 3 - a report on options for managing air pollution, particularly at regional and global scale, with assessments of the relative relevance of each option to climate change mitigation and adaptation; - recommendations of how the climate change and regional air pollution communities can progressively work together in an integrated fashion; - an overview and assessment of recent work on interaction of climate change and pollution with an accessible summary of the current state of understanding and its implications for policy. This will include the implications of carbon finance mechanisms for addressing air pollution in developing countries; - an assessment of recent work on climate-pollution co-benefits and synergies and recommendations on how the process of developing integrated strategies at national, regional and urban scales can be addressed, particularly in the circumstances of developing countries. The key stage in securing these outputs will be a conference in late 2008 for about 60 leading representatives of the air pollution and climate communities, covering science, policy and regulatory fields, and including the inter-governmental agencies connected with the Forum. The conference will likely be held in Asia, although a final location has yet to be determined. While new papers will be commissioned from key experts on certain crucial issues that have emerged in the current programme, most of the material before the meeting will be reviews and assessments of the issues on the basis of work already undertaken by the Forum and other bodies. Annex 1 sets out: - the outline structure of the conference programme; some of the major research programmes and reports which will provide the basis for opening assessments. There will be a strong emphasis on bedding conclusions and recommendations into a follow-up implementation process, built around the programmes of the main Forum partners, notably UNEP, the Convention on Long-Range Transport of Air Pollution, the various Regional Air Pollution Networks, and the regional Clean Air Initiatives. While the report will deal in part with scientific and technical issues, it will also examine where practical experience needs to be developed and the institutions and work areas which need to be brought together if the necessary convergence of global air pollution and climate change policies is to be secured. ANNEX 1 CONFERENCE STRUCTURE AND SOURCES 4 (1) Conference Structure and Issues Theme 1: Towards Optimised Integrated Strategies for Air Pollution and Climate Change - Implications of the common sources of pollution and greenhouse gases Atmospheric interactions of pollutants and climate change processes – what influences what What strategies would optimise pollution abatement and climate mitigation – and how do we deliver them? Theme 2: Potential Regional, Hemispheric and Global Frameworks for Managing Air Pollution and Their Relevance to the Interaction with the Climate Change Community - - Overview of evolution of regional systems to address air pollution what has succeeded, and what has failed, and why? Some case studies of regional and global cooperation: Montreal Protocol, POPs Convention, Kyoto Protocol, Regional air pollution regulation in the UNECE region Models and strategies for strengthening air pollution management at regional, hemispheric and global scales and their comparative advantages with respect to interaction with the climate change community. Theme 3 Delivering Co-benefits at Urban, National and Regional Scale in Developing Regions - (ii) Review of work so far on identification of synergies and co-benefits between air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation; What work is available specifically of the issue for developing countries? How far are conclusions from more developed countries transferable? How can optimized strategies be best promoted at regional, national and urban scales and what will they potentially deliver? What role can international air pollution regulatory systems play in developing and implementing such approach? Opportunities for regional and potentially hemispheric systems to begin to deliver on these opportunities; and The role of carbon finance in reducing air pollution. Sources RELEVANT CURRENT WORK ON WHICH THE PROGRAMME WILL DRAW 5 The project will draw on experts from throughout the world, particularly those involved with projects that are designed to promote the co-benefits of air pollution and climate change control. Those will include, but not be limited to, the following programmes and projects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has developed a program called Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES), which is designed to engage developing countries to build support for integrated planning to address air pollution and other local environmental concerns and also reduce associated global greenhouse gas emissions. The program provides tools and approaches to help analyze selected mitigation strategies and quantify environmental, public health, and economic co-benefits of various approaches. It makes recommendations to help inform policy decisions. To date, government agencies and research institutions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, the Philippines and South Korea have participated in the IES program. GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies)-Asia, a major project examining co-benefits approaches in China and India, has following research objectives: o Developing a practical policy analysis framework for a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits of technological and market-based measures for controlling air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The framework will embed the analysis of medium-term emission reduction potentials and costs at national scales into global long-term assessments of greenhouse gas stabilization strategies and explore their site-specific and near-term benefits on a range of air pollution impacts. o Bringing together, for use in this policy analysis framework, established state-of-the-art models dealing with the most important aspects that are relevant for a joint policy analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation and air pollution control measures and their benefits. o Implementing the assessment framework with real-world data for individual countries for Europe, all provinces in China, all states in India, and in aggregated form for the remainder of the world. o Producing an initial policy assessment of joint air pollution and climate change policies, identifying the scope for cost-effective measures both in the EU and in two important developing countries (China and India) up to 2030. In 2006 the Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI) initiated a partnership with the Large Cities Climate Leadership Group, an association of large cities dedicated to tackling climate change. The CCI is designed to target emissions from urban areas, which are responsible for the majority all greenhouse gas emissions in the world, and intended to assist the large cities in the group in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing energy efficiency. The CCI is intended to engage the largest cities in the world and allow them to be leaders for all cities by making the direct benefits from the purchasing consortium, technical assistance, and measurement and communication tools available to other cities throughout the world. 6 To enable participating cities to reduce energy use and green house gas emissions, the CCI: 1. Creates a purchasing consortium that will pool the purchasing power of the cities to lower the prices of energy saving products and accelerate the development and deployment of new energy saving and greenhouse gasreducing technologies and products. 2. Mobilizes experts to provide technical assistance to cities to develop and implement plans that will result in greater energy efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions. 3. Creates and deploys common measurement tools and internet-based communications systems to allow cities to establish a baseline on their greenhouse gas emissions, measure the effectiveness of the program in reducing these emissions and to share what works and does not work with each other. Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI), an international association of local governments dedicated to fostering a sustainable world and a partner of the Clinton Climate Initiative and the Large Cities Climate Leadership Group has developed online software called Harmonized Emissions Analysis Tool (HEAT). This software is designed to support local governments in planning for greenhouse gas and air pollution emission reductions. It is also intended to help build emissions inventories based on local energy use, transportation demand, and waste practices; set targets for reducing emissions; quantify reductions and their co-benefits; and track progress. Developed with the support of the US Agency for International Development, HEAT is initially being prepared for Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa. The National Association of Clean Air Agencies, representing state and local air pollution agencies in the U.S. has developed a “Clean Air and Climate Protection Software (CACPS) – a software tool designed to expand the capabilities of states and localities to analyze the benefits of various air pollution control scenarios and select and implement those that not only address traditional air pollutants, such as ozone precursors like nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides and particulate matter, but also greenhouse gases. CACPS can help state and local officials: o Create an inventory and forecast emissions of criteria air pollutants – nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and coarse particulate matter – and GHGs. o Evaluate policies to reduce emissions of these pollutants. o Prepare emission reduction action plans. The Air Resources Board (ARB) in the state of California is developing a policy document on “Proposed Early Actions to Mitigate Climate Change in California in support of the state’s Assembly Bill 32, the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006.” As part of this effort, the ARB is identifying strategies that can be developed relatively quickly and produce significant greenhouse gas reductions. In the draft document, ARB staff has identified 10 conventional air pollution control measures that are scheduled for 7 rulemaking in the 2007-2009 period. According to the draft, “these control measures are aimed at criteria and toxic air pollutants, but will have concurrent climate co-benefits through reductions in CO2 or non-Kyoto pollutants (i.e., diesel particulate matter, other light-absorbing compounds and/or ozone precursors) that contribute to global warming.” In March 2007 the Air Quality Expert Group in the UK published Air Quality and Climate Change: a UK Perspective. Among other things, the report includes a detailed discussion of mitigation measures that can be used to address both climate and air quality issues. The report discusses “win-win” approaches and tradeoffs, and targets measures for a number of sectors, including energy, transport, agriculture and land use and others, including waste incineration. In October 2006 the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, a report to the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the United Kingdom, was released. The review concluded that climate change could have very serious impacts on growth and development, and that the costs of stabilizing the climate are expensive, but manageable. Chapter 12 of the report discusses the links between climate change policy, energy policy and air policy control policy. The report states that measures to reduce energy use and to reduce the carbon intensity of energy generation can have benefits for local air quality. For example, switching from fossil fuels to renewables, or from coal to gas, can significantly the levels of air pollution resulting from fossil fuel burning. The European Commission, through the European Environment Agency and the Institute of Environment and Sustainability have issued a variety of reports examining the linkages in impacts, but also the linkages in emissions and control options, policy practices and opportunities between greenhouse gases and conventional air pollutants. They also are involved in supporting a number of programmes. For example, the European Commission is sponsoring a partnership programme targeted at air pollution in Bangkok, Thailand; Jarkarta, Indonesia; Jinan, People’s Republic of China; and Bangalore, India. The programme is called the CDM & Urban Air Pollution Partnership, or CURB-Air of the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands. It is designed to target the sectoral overlap between sources of air pollution and sources of carbon dioxide. CURB-AIR is focused on identifying local projects through literature and case studies, multi-level government capacity building, and disseminating results to other cities in the region. In 2005 the Ishikawa International Cooperation Research Centre published Addressing Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Pan-Japan Sea Region, which provides an overview and analysis of some of the economic instruments used to address air pollution and greenhouse gases in the Pan-Japan Sea region, with references to the experiences of the United States and some European Union countries. o The Simple Interactive Model for Better Air Quality (SIM-air) software developed by the World Bank includes co-benefits calculations for urban centres, calculating the costs and benefits of mitigation measures. 8