Download Climate change: Severe threats for food security

Climate change: Severe threats for food security
By-Tareq Hossain Khan
The Daily Sun 13 January 2013
Climate change obviously stands as a severe threat to food production of Bangladesh as
agricultural production directly depends on temperature, rain, humidity etc. All of these will be
seriously affected by climate change. Due to range of factors, starting from geographical
vulnerability to high density, Bangladesh is thought to be one of the most vulnerable countries to
climate change. There is a forecast that climate change will make natural disasters more frequent
and intense, land and water resources more scarce, which will disrupt the life of the nation and
the food production.
Bangladesh the largest statuary of the world, has been ranked as the 3rd most vulnerable country
in the world to sea level rise in terms of the number of people displacement and in the top ten in
terms of percentage of population living in the low elevation coastal zone. Among the different
production system, agriculture will face major adverse impacts of climate change due to changes
in hydrological system, which will be influenced by temperature, heavy rainfall and extreme
weathered events. Climate change persuade challenges are: (a) scarcity of fresh water due to less
rain and higher temperature in the dry season (b) drainage congestion due to higher water levels
in the confluence with the rise of sea level, (c) river bank erosion, (d) frequent floods and
prolonged and widespread drought, (e) wider salinity in the surface, ground and soil in the
coastal zone (World Bank Report, 2010). Bangladesh faces all of these climate changes related
challenges.
Climate change are visible in Bangladesh in different form; e.g. temperature raising, uneven
rainfall, frequents and intense floods, drought, extreme events (Strom surge, cyclone), water
scarcity. These phenomena will severely affect the country’s crop production as well and food
security by many ways: temperature rise will decline crop production rate; extreme events like
cyclone and divesting flood will destroy bulk amount of yields; the SLR as well as rivers bank
erosions will inundate vast agricultural land; salinity and drought will reduce cropping intensity
and production rate and climate change will push back millions of people below poverty line,
which could reduce their purchasing power as well as access power to food.
Due to climate change, World Bank (2009) predicts that national rice production of Bangladesh
will decline 2.55 percent to 2.71 percent during the period 2005-2050. That means rice
production would be declined 5.243 million metric tons compared with present level of 3.6 core
tons. The IPCC has projected that rice production might be declined by 8% by 2050. But more
horrible, it has projected that almost no wheat could grow in Bangladesh if the temperature rises
by 2 degree Celsius. A report forecasts that sea level rise (SLR) might affect more than a million
hectares of agricultural land inflicting huge loss of production, while another report denotes that
Bangladesh may loss 17% of it’s coastal zones (5.5 million ha) causing sea level rise. Not only
agriculture but also fisheries and livestock will be affected by climate change. Around 100
million people directly or indirectly depend on those three sectors for their livelihoods.
Climate change is already affecting food security and it is likely to have even greater impacts in
coming years. There are at least five channels by which climate change affects our food security.
Higher temperature may lead to heat stress for plants, increasing sterility and lowering overall
productivity. Higher temperatures also increase evaporation from plants and soils, increasing
water requirements while declining water availability.
Bangladesh is not only the largest statuary of the world but also a laying deltaic country. That’s
why it will face the serious consequences of sea level rise (SLR) with permanent inundation of
vast land. Rising seas contaminates costal freshwater with saline water. Several districts of
Bangladesh are already having serious problems with water quality, which is affecting farming
productivity. The geographical location and geomorphologic conditions of Bangladesh have
made the country one of the most vulnerable ones to climate change, particularly to SLR. The
country is situated at the interface of two different environments, with the Bay of Bangle to the
south and the Himalayas to the north. This ‘death trap’ of geography causes catastrophic ravages
of natural disasters, now, which will be exacerbated by climate change and see level rising.
NAPA (2005) estimates that land permanently lost to the sea may amount to 3% and 6% of
Bangladesh by the 2030s and 2050s respectively. There is a prediction if sea level rise goes up to
one metre mark by 2100, over 10% of Bangladesh (as large as Chittagong Hill Tracks-CHT) may
be submerged. But in extreme, Bangladesh is to loose between 17,000 and 22,000 square
kilometers of costal terrain, nearly one third of the country’s southern part due to sea level rise
by 2050. Sea level rise (up to 30 cm) could force to depart around 33 million of their land by
2050 and up to 43 million of their land by 2080. It is very simple that these destitute people will
have nowhere to go as by 2030 the highly densely populated country is estimated to have 200
million People. So, to ensure the food security of these bulk amounts of refugees will be a great
challenge for Bangladesh.
The writer is Lecturer of Political
Science, Jagannath University.