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Greening Asia’s Infrastructure Development Herath Gunatilake Director Regional and Sustainable Development Department Asian Development Bank 1 Asia’s Infrastructure Investment Requirements and Deficits • Between 2009 and 2013, Asia Pacific region accounted for more than 50% of the global increase in capital spending on infrastructure • The Asia Pacific infrastructure investment need is expected to grow by 7% to 8% a year over the next decade. 2 Asia’s Infrastructure Investment Requirements and Deficits • Asia’s overall infrastructure investment needs are estimated at $4.4 trillion for 2015 - 2020 – average infrastructure investment need of about $730 billion per year – 68% of which is for new capacity and 32% of which is for maintaining and replacing existing infrastructure – ADB about $20 billion, may increase to about $30 billion 3 Asia’s Infrastructure Investment Requirements and Deficits • In addition to the overall national infrastructure needs, $175 billion investment is needed for regional projects—with an average infrastructure investment need of close to $30 billion per year 4 Estimate Infrastructure Needs in Developing Asia (in US billion) New Capacity Replacement 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - Electricity Telecommunication Transport Water and Sanitation Source: ADB and ADBI 5 ADB’s Environment Operations Directions Environmentally sustainable growth as one of 3 development agendas, and environment as a core area of operations Promoting a shift to sustainable infrastructure Investing in natural capital Strengthening governance and management capacities Climate change (mitigation and adaptation) 6 Asia’s Share of Global GDP, 1700-2050 An additional 3 billion Asians achieve European living standards by 2050 A. Clean Energy Asia’s Energy Trilemma • Accessibility: 600 million people without access to electricity (and intermittent services for those who have access) • Affordability: costs of supply are high (or unsustainable subsidies) • Sustainability: air pollution and CO2 emissions Developing Asia’s Share in Global CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption 2010 Rest of the World 63% 2035 Developing Asia 37% 47% Rest of the World 53% In 1973: 9% Source: ADB, APERC 2013 9 ADB Energy Sector Vision Affordable Clean Energy for All Current EE&RE Future Energy Efficiency RE Fossil fuels Fossil fuels Investment Requirements: BAU vs Alternative (2010-2035) Cumulative Investment ($ trillion, 2006$ ) 25.0 $ 19.9 trillion 20.0 15.0 Industry Commercial Demand side additional investment: $7.3 trillion $ 11.7 trillion Residential Transport Distribution 10.0 Energy Transportation Supply side investment: $12.6 trillion 5.0 Transformation Extraction/Produ ction 0.0 BAU ALT Source: ADB, APERC 2013 11 B. Sustainable Transportation Problem of rapid motorization Congestion Air pollution Rising GHG emissions 23% of global energy-related GHG • Transport is emissions • Land transport is • Land transport GHG emissions to 2050 ¾ of transport GHG emissions based on current trend double by Unsafe roads • 645,000 annual road deaths and 30 million injuries in developing Asia • Leading cause of death for 15-44 year olds, 2nd leading cause for 6-14 year olds • Vulnerable users are 50–75% of deaths • Costs 2-5% of GDP Avoid-Shift-Improve Paradigm Avoid the need to travel Shift to sustainable modes Improve efficiency of all modes Lower congestion, emissions, air pollution, road accidents, respiratory & health problems 17 STI priorities and targets Sustainable transport systems Accessible Affordable STI lending directions Environment friendly Safe STI subsector lending targets Mainstream sustainability in roads Scale up 4 areas 100% 2000-09 2020 80% • • • • Urban transport Addressing climate change Cross-border transport & logistics Road safety & social sustainability 60% 40% 20% 0% Road Rail Water Urban Transp Air 18 Asia’s Cities 19 C. Sustainable Urban Development 20 ADB’s approach Addressing Equity Issues (Inclusiveness) Providing appropriate livelihood, service, shelter, and infrastructure solutions to poor and vulnerable communities Promoting Improved Environment and Resilience (Green) Developing resource use-efficient and climate changeresilient cities Building the Economy (Competitiveness) Providing strategic physical, social and institutional infrastructure for inclusive growth 21 ADB’s Five Core Urban Areas • • • • • City Cluster Economic Development (CCED) Urban transport Waste management Municipal finance Urban renewal and slum rehabilitation 22 Lessons/Challenges • Infrastructure -opportunity for environment management • Greening is costly, reliable estimates of benefits may help • Technology transfer is challenging • Making infrastructure resilient to natural disasters • Public resource are inadequate, private investment PPPs are vital 23 Thank you! For more information: http:www.adb.org [email protected] 24