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Transcript
A LOOK AT THE INTRICACIES OF
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN
MOBILITY IN AFRICA
Richard S. Odingo
VULNERABILITY OF AFRICA TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
Since the founding of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change there has been a consensus
that Africa is and will be the most vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change.
A look at African history for the last two or more
thousand years suggests that there have been
waves of population mobility, which could be
attribute toconflicts over natural resources, and
more recently exacerbated by climate change
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A SECURITY
CONCERN
• Recently a group of top US Military Generals
concluded that climate change comprises a new
and very different type of national security
challenge.
• They also noted that climate change can act as a
threat multiplier and instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the world.
• We can say that many areas of Africa fall into this
category-hence the importance of human
migrations.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY
• It is now well accepted that climate change will
likely foster political instabiliy where societal
demands exceed the capacity of governments to
cope.
• Among the factors which add up to create
problems for governments are decline in food
production, increase in diseases, water scacity, as
well as flood disasters.
• Migration is a natural outcome of these
disruptions.
THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN
AFRICA
• All the major economic sectors of African
economies are targeted by climate change.
These include– Water
– Agriculture and food production
– Health
– Energy
– Ecosystems
– Coastal zones
Agricultural production and food security in Africa
• Arid and semi-arid land in Africa could increase by 5-8%
(60-90 million hectares).
• Wheat production may likely disappear from Africa by the
2080s.
• Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as 90% by
2100, with small-scale farms being the most affected.
• It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the sub-Sahara African
will likely experience agricultural losses of between 2 and
7% of the GDP
Agricultural production and food security in Africa
Extreme wind and turbulence could decrease fisheries
productivity by 50-60%, while turbulence will likely bring
about a 10% decline in productivity on the spawning
grounds;
Warming of 2.5°C to 5oC in Africa will likely increase small
farm livestock income by 26% (+US$1.4 billion) and 58%
(+US$3.2 billion), respectively.
By contrast, a warming of 2.5°C will likely decrease large
farm livestock by 22% (-40 US$13 billion) and a warming of
5°C will likely reduce it by as much as 35% (-US$20 billion).
Increased precipitation of 14% would likely reduce small
farm livestock income by 10% (-US$ 0.6 billion).
The same reduction in precipitation would likely reduce
large farm livestock income by about 9% (-US$5 billion).
Already Bad Situation of Water Resources in
Africa will be exacerbated
Climate change and variability will likely impose
additional pressures on water availability, water
accessibility and water demand in Africa.
The population at risk of increased water stress in
Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million
people by 2020 and 350-600 million people by the
2050.
Northern Africa and southern Africa are likely to see
increase in the number of people that could
experience water stress by 2055.
On the other hand, more people in eastern Africa and
western Africa will likely experience a reduction rather
than a water stress.
A 3°C temperature increase could lead to 0.4 – 1.8
billion more people at risk of water stress.
Climate Change damage to Ecosystems
• Climate variability and change, coupled with human
induced changes, may also affect ecosystems
(mangroves and coral reefs), with additional
consequences on fisheries and tourism. The
projection that sea level rise would increase flooding
in low lying coastal areas will increase the physical
and socio-economic vulnerability of coastal cities.
Changes in a variety of ecosystems are at a faster rate than
anticipated.
• Climate change, interacting with human drivers such as
deforestation and forest fires are a threat to Africa’s forest
ecosystem.
• By 2020, the ice cap on Mt. Kilimanjaro could
disappear;others like Mt. Kenya and Mt.Ruwenzori will
equally suffer;
• In some national parks in sub-Saharan Africa about 10-15%
of the species are projected to fall within the IUCN Critically
Endangered or Extinct categories by 2050, increasing to 2540% of species by 2080.
• Tourism will be affected by the loss in animal species
• It is estimated that by the 2080s, parts of arid and semiarid lands in Africa will likely increase by 5-8%.
Disappearing Mt. Kenya Glaciers
Lake Chad [from the TAR]
This image set displays a continued decline in lake surface area from
22 902km2 [8 843 square miles] in 1963 to a meager 304km2 [117 square
miles] in 2001
Inundation and Erosion of low-lying lands will be
exacerbated by climate variability and change, impacting
severely on coastal settlements
• Projected sea level rise would increase flooding,
particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa;
• Sea level rise will likely increase the high
socioeconomic and physical vulnerability of coastal
cities.
• The cost of adaptation to sea level rise could
amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.
Impacts on Tourism
• The economic benefits of tourism in Africa, which
according to 2004 statistics accounts for 3% of
worldwide tourism, may change with climate change.
• Flood risks and water pollution related diseases in lowlying regions (coastal areas) as well as coral reef
bleaching as a result of climate change could impact
negatively on tourism.
• African tourist places of interest, including wild life
areas and parks, may also attract fewer tourists under
marked climate changes.
• Climate change could, for example, lead to a poleward
shift of centres of tourist activity and a shift from
lowland to highland tourism.
Anthropogenic Climate Change will negatively
impact Human health in Africa
 By 2100, previously unsuitable areas of dense human
population for distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe will
become suitable for transmission.
 Strong southward expansion of the transmission zone will
likely continue into South Africa.
 A 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria
distribution is projected, with little increase in the
latitudinal extent of the disease by 2100.
 Previously malaria-free highland areas in Ethiopia, Kenya,
Rwanda and Burundi could also experience modest changes
to stable malaria by the 2050s, with conditions for
transmission becoming highly suitable by the 2080s.
 It is estimated that by the 2080s an additional 80 million
people will likely be at risk of malaria.
PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES
IN CLIMATE
• For the next two decades a warming of about
0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of
emission scenarios.
• Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse
gases and aerosols had been kept constant at
year 2000 levels, a further warming of about
0.1°C per decade would be expected;
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or
above current rates would cause further
warming and induce many changes in the
global climate system during the 21st century
that would very likely be larger than those
observed during the 20th century.
• Projected warming in the 21st century is
expected to be greatest over land and at most
high northern latitudes, and least over the
Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic
ocean
PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN
CLIMATE
• Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely
in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most
subtropical land regions.
HUMAN MIGRATIONS AS ANATURAL
RESPONSE TO IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
WE HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT THAT ALL THE
STATED IMPACTS WILL NOT ONLY DESTABILIZE
THE POPULATION, BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE
SPONTANEOUS MIGRATIONS.
MIGRANTS TRY ALL DISASTER ESCAPING
OUTLETS AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT SOME
OF THEM END ON THE DOORSTEPS OF
MEDITERRANEAN STATES SUCH AS ITALY
HUMAN MIGRATIONS COULD BE
CONSIDERED AS ADAPTATION
• A look at traditional practices among the
pastoral populations in Africa would tend to
suggest that migration away from areas with
environmental stresses, such as the lack of
water or lack of grazing was a common form
of adaptation. Unfortunately such outlets are
today no longer open, as the population of
Africa grow.
• In the absence of outlets, violence and
AFRICA IS THE MOST VULNERABLE
CONTINENTS OF THE GLOBE
Africa will
experience
severe
impacts
due to
climate
change and
climate
variability
+
Africa
has the
lowest
capacity
to
Adapt
to
Projected
Climate
Change
AFRICA
IS
THE
MOST
= VULNERABLE
CONTINENT
OF
THE
GLOBE
WAYS TO ASSIST AFRICA TO DEAL
WITH CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGE
• Ideally the common problems of Africa should
be handled by a Marshall Plan
• Unfortunately there is no country in the world
today generous enough to do that
• Most of the suggested soluyions to African
problems are tokenistic and of little effect
• Creating commissions which are ill-thought
out and poorly funded will remain tokenistic
THE IMPORTANCE OF THE
DIALOGUE APPROACH
 The dialogue approach puts more emphasis on
working together for a common purpose,
 The emphasis is not on money but on ideas,
 Many countries in the Mediterranean Basin will
also have to deal with climate change impacts.
 So far there is no guaranty that existing
technology with the possible exception of Carbon
Capture and Storage (CCS) may do the trick
 In other words we are all in the same boat!
FOCUS ON ADAPTATION
• The ingredients of climate change for most of
Africa include droughts alternating with
floods, water scarcity, drop in crop yields and
agricultural output, sea level rise, damage to
ecosystems, the spread of, and increase in
tropical diseases;
• In order to be able to respond, there must be
emphasis on adaptation, traditional and new.
THE VALUES OF ADAPTATION
• The reasons for emphasis on adaptation is
simple. If communities can adapt, then they
do not necessarily have to migrate.
• At the UNFCCC level, not enough weight is put
on adaptation. Industrialised countries
sometimes regard adaptation as a luxury we
can ill afford, yet within it are to be found real
answers to coping with climate change.
DIALOGUE CONTINUED
 Human migrations in Africa are but a
symptom of a much greater ailment called
poverty,
 By studying the climate change-links to
poverty we may be lucky enough to make
some headway in dealing with climate change.
 Following the current global recession, tax
payers in OECD countries will be more likely to
help with ideas than massive finances.
DIALOGUE -3
• The dialogue on human migrations in Africa
may be the first step
• Another step might involve addressing
resource was linked to water scarcity, or for
that matter, in dealing with climate-linked
increase in diseases
• By the way Latin Europe originated the name
“Malaria”
A LIST OF POSSIBLE DIRECTIONS
The following are areas of concentration by the
dialogue which could yield good results within
acceptable period:

Focus on the potential for the massive
development of renewable energy projects,
calculated to enable Africa to help itself
 Debating and finding solutions for the water
scarcity dilemma. In my view this is more of a
technical problem, and the technology is here.
LIST OF DIRECTIONS
 The problem of climate-related decline in crop
yields, and its consequences in food security is
a much more difficult problem, and Africa and
Italy can surely put their heads together to
find lasting solutions by resorting to climatefriendly technology.
 When it comes to climate change and
ecosystem damage there is room for sharing
experience starting with the Mediterranean.
WISH LIST CONTINUED
 Observations from the last four years since the
Kyoto Protocol came into being have given
some of us hope.
 In the areas of the Clean development
Mechanism, and carbon-trading, many of us
have come to the realization that the sky is
the limit, so we must start by removing
prejudice against Africa. To stem human
migrations we must create employment in
Africa.
POVERTY AND HUMAN
MIGRATIONS
I HAVE NO MANDATE ON MANY OF THE ISSUES
WE WILL NEED TO PUT ON THE TABLE FOR
DISCUSSION, BUT I FEEL VERY STRONGLY
THAT ALONG SIDE FOOD SECURITY WE MUST
ALSO DISCUSS THE PROBLEM OF POVERTY IN
AFRICA.
It is very difficult to discuss poverty in Africa
meaningfully because of the recent economic
slump or downturn,
POVERTY AND HUMAN
MIGRATIONS CONTINUED
But one will find that poverty in Africa is
structural, and we can find ways to tackle it
without talking of “Marshall Aid.”
Every time we discuss poverty in Africa as the
root cause of many problems such as
out=migration, we suddenly discover that we
have very few friends!
Needless to say IPCC has blamed climate change
on industrialised countries.
HOW TO DIALOGUE INTO THE
FUTURE
• We need a small Secretariat rather than a
Commission
• If you are wondering why I do not like the idea
of another Commission, it is because it quickly
becomes politicized and ineffective
• If we start with a dialogue Group we should
keep the Dialogue Group.
• It does not have to include 53 countries
HOW TO DIALOGUE INTO THE
FUTURE
• A manageable Secretariat is all we need with
powers to consult and to coopt for specific
issues across Africa
• Let there be many more ideas from ALL the
Participants.
• THANK YOU ALL