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Incorporation Incorporation of of Climate Climate Variability Variability and and Climate Climate Change Change into into Management Management of of Water Water Resources Resources in in South South Florida Florida Jayantha Obeysekera11 Paul Trimble11 Upmanu Lall22 Hyun-Han Kwon22 11Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling, SFWMD Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling, SFWMD 22Department of Earth & Environmental Engineering, Columbia University Department of Earth & Environmental Engineering, Columbia University UF Water Institute Symposium February 27-28, 2008 Definition Definition of of Climate Climate Change Change “Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Forms Forms of of Climate Climate Change Change Natural processes within the climate system Decadal to Multi-Decadal, Periodic Changes (eg. ENSO, AMO) Human activities that change the atmosphere's composition (e.g. through burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g. deforestation, reforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc.) Longer Term Trends in Rainfall, Temperature, ET, Sea Level Rise Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Climate Climate Change Change :: Concerns Concerns in in Water Water Resources Resources Management Management Landscape impacts, direct effects on existing infrastructure and ecosystems (Coastal Watersheds, Coastal Ecosystems) Infrastructure Planning Water shortages due to changes in atmospheric inputs and outputs (Rainfall & Evapotranspiration) Impact of Sea Level Rise on coastal wellfields and structures Water Resources Operations Operational Planning (Seasonal and Multiseasonal) Flood Control Operations Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Florida Florida Sea Sea Level Level Rise Rise • 1 meter inundates the Everglades and Cape Canaveral • 2 meters inundate Miami and most of Florida’s Gulf Coast Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling South Florida 1995 CR C EMBAYMENT ZONE OF HIGHER TIDES TP CS Acknowledgement: Prof. Hal Wanless Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling +4 foot rise (mhhw = +6.5’ above 1929 MSL) CR South Florida 2100 C TP CS Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling +5 foot rise (mhhw = +7.5’ above 1929 MSL) CR South Florida 2100 C TP CS Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling System Complexity Nature Nature of of the the Climate Climate Change Change Problem Problem (Rik Lewis, MWH) High Low MESSY PROBLEMS WICKED te a m e i l C MESSY g n a h C PROBLEMS TAME PROBLEMS WICKED PROBLEMS Social Complexity Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling High Natural Natural Variability Variability in in Climate Climate Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Teleconnections Teleconnections to to Global Global Events Events AMO PDO ENSO AMO Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation ENSO El Nino-Southern Oscillation PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling 2007 Driest El Nino Thirty El Nino Years (1895-2005) Driest Tercile (lowest 33%): 2007, 1977 Middle Tercile (middle 33%): 1952, 1992, 2005,1924, 1969,1920, 1906, 1919 Wettest Tercile (highest 33%): 1897, 1912, 1973, 1933, 1915, 1988, 1964, 1978, 1987, 1903, 2003, 1926, 1942, 1947, 1970, 1995, 1958, 1941, 1983, 1998 Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Long Long Term Term Patterns Patterns of of Rainfall Rainfall 1947 1959 2000 Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Temperature Anomaly (deg Celsius) AMO AMO Index Index Sea Surface Temperature Warm Cold Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling 10-year moving average Warm Cold Warm Trends in Rainfall and LOK Net Inflow AMO1 Cold Rainfall Net Inflow Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling AMO2 Warm AMO3 Cold AMO4 Warm Northern River Pattern Bimodal River Pattern Southern River Pattern Spring Dominated Altered Flow Pattern AMO Patterns: North Florida vs. South Florida Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Summary of What We Know Rainfall Atlantic Hurricanes Wet Season Dry Season El Niño No clear pattern Wetter Less activity La Niña No clear pattern Drier More activity AMO Warm Phase Wetter decades; drought still possible AMO Cold Phase Drier decades; wet years still possible Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Greater # of major storms Lesser # of major storms Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling es e cosy stem Ever glad tion ec rot Multiobjective Tradeoff Analysis Inlake Ecosystem P od F lo Development Development of of Operating Operating Rules Rules for for Lake Lake Okeechobee Okeechobee Es tu ar ie s W l p up S er t a y Su s t o nsp Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling na AMO Ni How do we figure out the specific effects of all these indices? La El no i N PDO Artificial Neural Network Models Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Training Training Phase Phase Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Lake Okeechobee Management Zones Flood Control Water Shortage Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling WSE WSE Regulation Regulation Schedule Schedule Operational Operational Elements Elements z Lake Okeechobee Water Level z Tributary Hydrologic Conditions z30 Day Net Rainfall zAverage Kissimmee River (Tributary watershed) inflow z Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook zSeasonal Outlook (6 month) zMulti-seasonal Outlook (up to12 months) Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling WSE Operational Guidelines Decision Tree Part 2: Define Lake Okeechobee Discharges to Tidewater (Estuaries) Apply Apply Tributary Tributary Condition Condition Criteria Criteria Weekly Weekly Apply ApplyMeteorological MeteorologicalForecasts Forecastson onaa Weekly WeeklyBasis; Basis;apply applySeasonal Seasonaland and Multi-Seasonal Multi-SeasonalClimate ClimateOutlooks Outlooks on onaaMonthly MonthlyBasis Basis Check Check Special Special Lake Lake Criteria daily Criteria daily as as needed needed for for Zones Zones BB & &D D Up to Maximum Discharge Capacity To Tidewater ZONE A Up to 30 day Meteorological Forecast EXTREMELY WET ZONE B Tributary Hydrologic Conditions Lake Less than 17.5’ & it’s the Dry Season START ZONE C TRUE EXTREMELY WET Tributary Hydrologic Conditions NORMAL TO VERY WET Up to 30 day DRY Meteorological Forecast FALSE DRY Lake Okeechobee Water Level WET TO VERY WET NORMAL TO VERY WET Up to 30 day Meteorological Forecast WET TO VERY WET NORMAL ZONE D Tributary WET TO Hydrologic VERY WET Conditions DRY TRUE NORMAL TO DRY Seasonal Climate Outlook NORMAL TO VERY WET MultiSeasonal Climate Outlook DRY Up to Maximum Pulse Release to the Estuaries No Discharge to Tidewater Up to Zone C S-80 Up to 2500cfs S-77 Up to 4500cfs VERY WET OTHERWISE FALSE TRUE Lake Stage within 0.5 feet of Zone C Up to Zone B S-80 Up to 3500cfs S-77 Up to 6500cfs Zone C Steady Flow S-80 Up to 2500cfs S-77 Up to 4500cfs NORMAL TO DRY Lake Stage within 0.5 feet of Zone C NORMAL TO DRY Up to Maximum Pulse Release to the Estuaries WET TO VERY WET EITHER FORECAST INDICATES WET TO VERY WET Seasonal BOTH FORECASTS Climate Outlook INDICATE NORMAL TO DRY & Meteorological Forecast EXTREMELY WET Seasonal Climate Outlook Zone B Steady Flow S-80 Up to 3500cfs S-77 Up to 6500cfs FALSE Seasonal Climate Outlook VERY WET OTHERWISE MultiTO Seasonal WET VERY WET Climate Outlook NORMAL TO DRY Up to Maximum Pulse Release to the Estuaries No Discharge to Tidewater Example Example Outlook Outlook Summary Summary Season Season Croley's Croley's Method Method SFWMD SFWMD Empirical Empirical Method Method Sub-sampling Sub-sampling of of Neutral Neutral ENSO ENSO years years HSM HSM Experimental Experimental Forecast Forecast Value Value Condition Condition Value Value Condition Condition Value Value Condition Condition Value Value Condition Condition (ft) (ft) (ft) (ft) (ft) (ft) (ft) (ft) Seasonal 2.09 Normal Normal 1.80 1.80 Seasonal 2.09 Normal Normal 1.81 1.81 Normal Normal 1.91 1.91 Normal Normal 2.14 Multi 2.14 Normal Normal 1.86 1.86 Multi Seasonal Seasonal Normal Normal 1.75 1.75 Normal Normal 1.85 1.85 Normal Normal (September (September -February) -February) (September (September -April) -April) Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling February 1st Position Analysis La Nina Events Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling How How do do we we account account for for decadal decadal to to multi-decadal multi-decadal changes changes in in Facility Facility Planning? Planning? Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Modeling Based On “Stationarity”Assumption Scenario • Climatic Input Model Output • Daily time – Rainfall – ET series of water levels, flows • Demands not met •Boundary Conditions Period of Simulation 1965-2000 • Landuse/Landcover • Water Demands • Operating Criteria SFWMM Model Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Performance Measures (Ag, Env, Urban) Variability Variability in in AMO AMO Periods Periods Tree-ring based data indicate that the length of AMO periods can be highly variable making predictions difficult. Observed SST Tree-ring based reconstructed AMO 6 36 17 Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling 29 8 53 63 9 AMO periods 22 13 9 9 46 Let t1 = years since last shift; t2 = years until the next shift We now compute the conditional probability for t2 given t1 Risk of Future shift (%) Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling x 104 Historical Series 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction of Streamflow Observation of Streamflow Reconstructed Series Streamflow(MCM) x 104 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1500 1500 0.5 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 Time(year) Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction of Streamflow 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 Time(year) 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Wavelet Reconstructed Components Wavelet Decomposition 0 -0.5 ARMA Simulation on Wavelet Component 1550 1600 1650 4 Uncertainty Bound Simulated Value 1700 Time(year) 1750 Observation 2 0 -2 -4 Simulation of Daily Rainfall Using NHMM 1500 1500 1600 1700 Time(year) 1800 1900 Daily Scale 2000 Added Added Complexity Complexity Due Due to to Human Human – – Induced Induced Climate Climate Changes Changes Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling 2007 2007 IPCC IPCC AR4 AR4 Report Report Findings Findings “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal..” Average air and ocean temperatures Rising Sea Level Widespread melting of snow Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Effect Effect of of Temperature Temperature Increase Increase on on Evapotranspiration* Evapotranspiration* *This is only a sensitivity analysis of Maximum Daily Temperature and does not include all the effects of climate change Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Recent Recent Temperature Temperature Trends Trends in in Florida Florida Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Impact Impact of of Climate Climate Change Change on on Water Water Levels Levels Current CC Scenario* Difference *CC Scenario: -10% rainfall, +1.5 0C Daily Max Temp Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Historical Historical Sea Sea Level Level Trends Trends Median Trend (based on 9 stations as of 1990) 2.3 mm/year (9 inc. per century) Faster increase during the last few decades Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling IPCC IPCC 2007 2007 Projection Projection White line in projection is a continuation of currently observed rate of rise (green line). IPCC, 2007, Prof. Hal Wanless, UoM Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Sea Sea Level Level Rise Rise Projections Projections 2050 2100 IPCC (2007) 0.6-1.9 feet CERP Guidance Memorandum (2004) More likely (STC, MiamiDade) 0.4 feet 0.9 feet 1.5 feet 3-5 feet Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Impact Impact on on Coastal Coastal Wellfields Wellfields “If the sea level rises about 48 centimeters over the next 100 years as predicted, then inland movement of the saltwater interface may cause well-field contamination” Dausman & Langevin (USGS, 2004) Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Location Of the Saltwater Interface Adaptation Adaptation – – Coastal Coastal Structures Structures Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Potential Potential Ecosystem Ecosystem Impacts Impacts Acceleration of the loss of coastal forest and salt marsh ecosystem Peat soil accretion may prevent or slow down encroachment of salt water. Gradual building of the peat will be critical to retard the impact of sea level rise If peat accretion does not keep up with SLR, mangrove wetlands will collapse and evolve Enhanced sedimentation of estuaries, algal blooms, and lower light and oxygen levels Shallow waters in Florida Bay are very vulnerable to heat load resulting in ET increase and hypersalinity Ocean acidification due to lowered pH Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Summary Summary Combined effects of natural variability and human impacts make dealing with Climate Change more difficult Operational Planning at SWMD has made effective use of climate change due to natural variability New research is needed to understand and develop adaptation/mitigation strategies for projected ranges of Climate Change Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Questions? Questions? Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Climate Climate Change Change Impacts Impacts Even if we stabilize the GHGs today, climate change would continue for decades (0.1 0C per decade) Projected global averaged surface warming at the end of 21st century: 1.8 0C to 6.4 0C Very likely (>90% probability) of an increase of warm spells, heat waves and events of heavy rainfall Very likely precipitation increase in high latitudes and likely decrease in most subtropical land regions Likely increase in tropical storm intensity Sea Level Rise (7 to 23 inches by IPCC, 3-5 feet by others) Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Existing Existing Infrastructure Infrastructure Miami-Dade Central District Wastewater Treatment Plant Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Acknowledgement: Lynette Cardoch, MWH http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/fflamap.asp Snapshot: Snapshot: Climate Climate Change Change in in Florida Florida Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling CERP CERP Plan Plan Evaluation Evaluation 2050 Planning Horizon 2000 1965 Period used for modeling Assumption: 1965-2000 period used for modeling is representative of the climate expected during the future planning horizon (“stationarity”) Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Role Role of of Models Models in in CERP CERP Project Project Planning Planning Alternative Alternative plans plans evaluated evaluated in in developing developing the the project project plan plan to to be be recommended recommended to to Congress Congress for for construction construction authorization authorization Regional & Subregional Modeling Design Construction Operational Planning Project Operation Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM) (also known as 2x2) Best available regional model Distributed, integrated surface Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling water groundwater model Regional-scale 2x2 mi, daily time step Major components of hydrologic cycle Overland and groundwater flow Canal and levee seepage Operations of C&SF system Water shortage policies Extensive performance measures Provides input and boundary conditions for other models +2 foot rise (mhhw = +4.5’ above 1929 MSL) South Florida 2100 CR C TP CS Acknowledgement: Prof. Hal Wanless Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling +6 foot rise (mhhw = +8.5’ above 1929 MSL) CR South Florida 2100 C ?? EMBAYMENT ZONE OF HIGHER TIDES ?? TP CS Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL Present global rise = 30 cm/century 1930 Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling MOST OF THIS RISE IS BECAUSE OF THERMAL EXPANSION OF THE OCEAN Questions Questions in in Facility Facility Planning Planning Planned investments cost billions of dollars Is the period of simulation (19652000) representative of the expected hydrologic variability in the future planning period? How can we account for decadal to multi-decadal climate variability, if any, in modeling for CERP planning? How do we account for nonstationarity due to climate change? Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Projections Projections of of Future Future Changes Changes in in Climate Climate New in AR4: Drying in much of the subtropics, more rain in higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of rainfall changes already observed. Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Potential Potential Ecosystem Ecosystem Impacts Impacts Acceleration of the loss of coastal forest and salt marsh ecosystem Peat soil accretion may prevent or slow down encroachment of salt water. Gradual building of the peat will be critical to retard the impact of sea level rise If peat accretion does not keep up with SLR, mangrove wetlands will collapse and evolve, resulting in enhanced sedimentation of estuaries, algal blooms, and lower light and oxygen levels Shallow water in Florida Bay are very vulnerable to heat load resulting in ET increase and hypersalinity Acidification due to lowered pH Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Climate Climate Change Change Choices Choices (Rik Lewis, MWH) Global Climate Change Yes, Take Action No, Don’t Take Action False (i.e.climate change eventualities turn out to be false) High Economic Impact True High Cost, but worth every penny (i.e.climate change eventualities turn out to be true) Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling Major Catastrophic Events ~345 billion dollars?