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Incorporation
Incorporation of
of Climate
Climate
Variability
Variability and
and Climate
Climate Change
Change
into
into Management
Management of
of Water
Water
Resources
Resources in
in South
South Florida
Florida
Jayantha Obeysekera11
Paul Trimble11
Upmanu Lall22
Hyun-Han Kwon22
11Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling, SFWMD
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling, SFWMD
22Department of Earth & Environmental Engineering, Columbia University
Department of Earth & Environmental Engineering, Columbia University
UF Water Institute Symposium
February 27-28, 2008
Definition
Definition of
of Climate
Climate Change
Change
„
“Any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or
as a result of human activity.”
„ Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC, 2007), Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4)
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Forms
Forms of
of Climate
Climate Change
Change
„
Natural processes within the climate
system
„ Decadal
to Multi-Decadal, Periodic
Changes (eg. ENSO, AMO)
„
Human activities that change the
atmosphere's composition (e.g.
through burning fossil fuels) and the
land surface (e.g. deforestation,
reforestation, urbanization,
desertification, etc.)
„ Longer
Term Trends in Rainfall,
Temperature, ET, Sea Level Rise
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Climate
Climate Change
Change :: Concerns
Concerns in
in
Water
Water Resources
Resources Management
Management
Landscape impacts, direct effects on
existing infrastructure and ecosystems
(Coastal Watersheds, Coastal Ecosystems)
„ Infrastructure Planning
„
Water shortages due to changes in atmospheric
inputs and outputs (Rainfall &
Evapotranspiration)
„ Impact of Sea Level Rise on coastal wellfields
and structures
„
„
Water Resources Operations
Operational Planning (Seasonal and Multiseasonal)
„ Flood Control Operations
„
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Florida
Florida Sea
Sea Level
Level Rise
Rise
• 1 meter inundates the Everglades and Cape Canaveral
• 2 meters inundate Miami and
most of Florida’s Gulf Coast
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
South Florida 1995
CR
C
EMBAYMENT
ZONE OF
HIGHER TIDES
TP
CS
Acknowledgement: Prof. Hal Wanless
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
+4 foot rise (mhhw = +6.5’ above 1929 MSL)
CR
South Florida 2100
C
TP
CS
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
+5 foot rise (mhhw = +7.5’ above 1929 MSL)
CR
South Florida 2100
C
TP
CS
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
System Complexity
Nature
Nature of
of the
the Climate
Climate Change
Change
Problem
Problem
(Rik Lewis, MWH)
High
Low
MESSY
PROBLEMS
WICKED
te
a
m e
i
l
C MESSY
g
n
a
h
C
PROBLEMS
TAME
PROBLEMS
WICKED
PROBLEMS
Social Complexity
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
High
Natural
Natural Variability
Variability in
in Climate
Climate
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Teleconnections
Teleconnections to
to Global
Global Events
Events
AMO
PDO
ENSO
AMO Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
ENSO El Nino-Southern Oscillation
PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
2007 Driest El Nino
Thirty El Nino Years (1895-2005)
Driest Tercile (lowest 33%): 2007, 1977
Middle Tercile (middle 33%): 1952, 1992, 2005,1924, 1969,1920, 1906, 1919
Wettest Tercile (highest 33%): 1897, 1912, 1973, 1933, 1915, 1988, 1964, 1978, 1987, 1903,
2003, 1926, 1942, 1947, 1970, 1995, 1958, 1941, 1983, 1998
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Long
Long Term
Term Patterns
Patterns of
of Rainfall
Rainfall
1947
1959
2000
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Temperature Anomaly (deg Celsius)
AMO
AMO Index
Index
Sea Surface
Temperature
Warm
Cold
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
10-year moving
average
Warm
Cold
Warm
Trends in Rainfall and LOK Net Inflow
AMO1
Cold
Rainfall
Net Inflow
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
AMO2
Warm
AMO3
Cold
AMO4
Warm
Northern River Pattern
Bimodal River Pattern
Southern River Pattern
Spring Dominated
Altered Flow Pattern
AMO Patterns:
North Florida vs.
South Florida
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Summary of What We Know
Rainfall
Atlantic
Hurricanes
Wet
Season
Dry
Season
El Niño
No clear
pattern
Wetter
Less activity
La Niña
No clear
pattern
Drier
More activity
AMO Warm
Phase
Wetter decades;
drought still possible
AMO Cold Phase Drier decades;
wet years still possible
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Greater # of
major storms
Lesser # of
major storms
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
es e
cosy
stem
Ever
glad
tion
ec
rot
Multiobjective
Tradeoff
Analysis
Inlake Ecosystem
P
od
F lo
Development
Development
of
of Operating
Operating
Rules
Rules for
for
Lake
Lake
Okeechobee
Okeechobee
Es
tu
ar
ie
s
W
l
p
up
S
er
t
a
y
Su
s
t
o
nsp
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
na
AMO
Ni
How do
we figure out
the specific
effects of all
these indices?
La
El
no
i
N
PDO
Artificial
Neural
Network
Models
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Training
Training Phase
Phase
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Lake Okeechobee
Management Zones
Flood Control
Water Shortage
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
WSE
WSE Regulation
Regulation Schedule
Schedule
Operational
Operational Elements
Elements
z Lake Okeechobee Water Level
z Tributary Hydrologic Conditions
z30 Day Net Rainfall
zAverage Kissimmee River (Tributary
watershed) inflow
z Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook
zSeasonal Outlook (6 month)
zMulti-seasonal Outlook (up to12
months)
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
WSE Operational Guidelines Decision Tree
Part 2: Define Lake Okeechobee Discharges to Tidewater (Estuaries)
Apply
Apply Tributary
Tributary
Condition
Condition
Criteria
Criteria Weekly
Weekly
Apply
ApplyMeteorological
MeteorologicalForecasts
Forecastson
onaa
Weekly
WeeklyBasis;
Basis;apply
applySeasonal
Seasonaland
and
Multi-Seasonal
Multi-SeasonalClimate
ClimateOutlooks
Outlooks
on
onaaMonthly
MonthlyBasis
Basis
Check
Check Special
Special Lake
Lake
Criteria
daily
Criteria daily as
as needed
needed
for
for Zones
Zones BB &
&D
D
Up to Maximum
Discharge Capacity
To Tidewater
ZONE A
Up to 30 day
Meteorological
Forecast
EXTREMELY WET
ZONE B
Tributary
Hydrologic
Conditions
Lake
Less than 17.5’
& it’s the Dry
Season
START
ZONE C
TRUE
EXTREMELY WET
Tributary
Hydrologic
Conditions
NORMAL TO
VERY WET
Up to 30 day
DRY
Meteorological
Forecast
FALSE
DRY
Lake Okeechobee
Water Level
WET TO VERY WET
NORMAL TO
VERY WET
Up to 30 day
Meteorological
Forecast
WET TO VERY WET
NORMAL
ZONE D
Tributary WET TO
Hydrologic VERY WET
Conditions
DRY
TRUE
NORMAL TO DRY
Seasonal
Climate
Outlook
NORMAL TO VERY WET
MultiSeasonal
Climate
Outlook DRY
Up to Maximum
Pulse Release
to the Estuaries
No Discharge
to Tidewater
Up to Zone C
S-80 Up to 2500cfs
S-77 Up to 4500cfs
VERY WET
OTHERWISE
FALSE
TRUE
Lake Stage
within 0.5 feet
of Zone C
Up to Zone B
S-80 Up to 3500cfs
S-77 Up to 6500cfs
Zone C Steady Flow
S-80 Up to 2500cfs
S-77 Up to 4500cfs
NORMAL TO DRY
Lake Stage
within 0.5 feet
of Zone C
NORMAL
TO DRY
Up to Maximum
Pulse Release
to the Estuaries
WET TO VERY WET
EITHER FORECAST INDICATES
WET TO VERY WET
Seasonal
BOTH FORECASTS
Climate Outlook
INDICATE NORMAL TO DRY
& Meteorological
Forecast
EXTREMELY WET
Seasonal
Climate
Outlook
Zone B Steady Flow
S-80 Up to 3500cfs
S-77 Up to 6500cfs
FALSE
Seasonal
Climate
Outlook
VERY WET
OTHERWISE
MultiTO
Seasonal WET
VERY WET
Climate
Outlook
NORMAL TO DRY
Up to Maximum
Pulse Release
to the Estuaries
No Discharge
to Tidewater
Example
Example Outlook
Outlook Summary
Summary
Season
Season
Croley's
Croley's
Method
Method
SFWMD
SFWMD
Empirical
Empirical
Method
Method
Sub-sampling
Sub-sampling
of
of
Neutral
Neutral ENSO
ENSO
years
years
HSM
HSM
Experimental
Experimental
Forecast
Forecast
Value
Value Condition
Condition Value
Value Condition
Condition Value
Value Condition
Condition Value
Value Condition
Condition
(ft)
(ft)
(ft)
(ft)
(ft)
(ft)
(ft)
(ft)
Seasonal
2.09 Normal
Normal 1.80
1.80
Seasonal 2.09
Normal
Normal
1.81
1.81
Normal
Normal
1.91
1.91
Normal
Normal
2.14
Multi
2.14 Normal
Normal 1.86
1.86
Multi
Seasonal
Seasonal
Normal
Normal
1.75
1.75
Normal
Normal
1.85
1.85
Normal
Normal
(September
(September
-February)
-February)
(September
(September
-April)
-April)
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
February 1st Position Analysis La Nina Events
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
How
How do
do we
we account
account for
for decadal
decadal to
to
multi-decadal
multi-decadal changes
changes in
in Facility
Facility
Planning?
Planning?
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Modeling Based On
“Stationarity”Assumption
Scenario
• Climatic Input
Model
Output
• Daily time
– Rainfall
– ET
series of
water levels,
flows
• Demands not
met
•Boundary
Conditions
Period of
Simulation
1965-2000
• Landuse/Landcover
• Water Demands
• Operating Criteria
SFWMM Model
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Performance
Measures
(Ag, Env, Urban)
Variability
Variability in
in AMO
AMO Periods
Periods
Tree-ring
based data
indicate that
the length of
AMO periods
can be highly
variable
making
predictions
difficult.
Observed SST
Tree-ring based
reconstructed AMO
6
36
17
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
29
8
53
63
9
AMO periods
22
13
9
9
46
Let t1 = years since last shift; t2 = years until the next shift
We now compute the conditional probability for t2 given t1
Risk of Future shift (%)
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
x 104
Historical Series
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction of Streamflow
Observation of Streamflow
Reconstructed
Series
Streamflow(MCM)
x 104
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1500
1500
0.5
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
Time(year)
Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction of Streamflow
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
Time(year)
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Wavelet Reconstructed Components
Wavelet
Decomposition
0
-0.5
ARMA
Simulation on
Wavelet
Component
1550
1600
1650
4
Uncertainty Bound
Simulated Value
1700
Time(year)
1750
Observation
2
0
-2
-4
Simulation of
Daily Rainfall
Using NHMM
1500
1500
1600
1700
Time(year)
1800
1900
Daily Scale
2000
Added
Added Complexity
Complexity Due
Due to
to Human
Human –
–
Induced
Induced Climate
Climate Changes
Changes
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
2007
2007 IPCC
IPCC AR4
AR4 Report
Report Findings
Findings
„“Warming
of the
climate system is
unequivocal..”
„Average
air and
ocean temperatures
„Rising Sea Level
„Widespread melting
of snow
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Effect
Effect of
of Temperature
Temperature Increase
Increase on
on
Evapotranspiration*
Evapotranspiration*
*This is only a sensitivity analysis of Maximum Daily Temperature and does not include all the
effects of climate change
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Recent
Recent Temperature
Temperature Trends
Trends in
in
Florida
Florida
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Impact
Impact of
of Climate
Climate Change
Change on
on
Water
Water Levels
Levels
Current
CC Scenario*
Difference
*CC Scenario: -10% rainfall, +1.5 0C Daily Max Temp
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Historical
Historical Sea
Sea Level
Level Trends
Trends
„Median
Trend
(based on 9
stations as of
1990)
„2.3
mm/year (9
inc. per century)
Faster increase
during the last
few decades
„
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
IPCC
IPCC 2007
2007 Projection
Projection
White line in projection
is a continuation of
currently observed rate
of rise (green line).
IPCC, 2007, Prof. Hal Wanless, UoM
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Sea
Sea Level
Level Rise
Rise Projections
Projections
2050
2100
IPCC (2007)
0.6-1.9 feet
CERP
Guidance
Memorandum
(2004)
More likely
(STC, MiamiDade)
0.4 feet
0.9 feet
1.5 feet
3-5 feet
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Impact
Impact on
on Coastal
Coastal Wellfields
Wellfields
„“If
the sea level
rises about 48
centimeters over the
next 100 years as
predicted, then inland
movement of the
saltwater interface
may cause well-field
contamination”
Dausman & Langevin
(USGS, 2004)
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Location
Of the
Saltwater
Interface
Adaptation
Adaptation –
– Coastal
Coastal Structures
Structures
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Potential
Potential Ecosystem
Ecosystem Impacts
Impacts
„
„
„
„
„
„
Acceleration of the loss of coastal forest
and salt marsh ecosystem
Peat soil accretion may prevent or slow
down encroachment of salt water. Gradual
building of the peat will be critical to retard
the impact of sea level rise
If peat accretion does not keep up with SLR,
mangrove wetlands will collapse and evolve
Enhanced sedimentation of estuaries, algal
blooms, and lower light and oxygen levels
Shallow waters in Florida Bay are very
vulnerable to heat load resulting in ET
increase and hypersalinity
Ocean acidification due to lowered pH
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Summary
Summary
Combined effects of natural variability
and human impacts make dealing
with Climate Change more difficult
„ Operational Planning at SWMD has
made effective use of climate change
due to natural variability
„ New research is needed to understand
and develop adaptation/mitigation
strategies for projected ranges of
Climate Change
„
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Questions?
Questions?
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Climate
Climate Change
Change Impacts
Impacts
„
Even if we stabilize the GHGs today, climate change
would continue for decades (0.1 0C per decade)
„
Projected global averaged surface warming at the
end of 21st century: 1.8 0C to 6.4 0C
„
Very likely (>90% probability) of an increase of
warm spells, heat waves and events of heavy
rainfall
„
Very likely precipitation increase in high latitudes
and likely decrease in most subtropical land regions
„
Likely increase in tropical storm intensity
„
Sea Level Rise (7 to 23 inches by IPCC, 3-5 feet by
others)
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Existing
Existing Infrastructure
Infrastructure
Miami-Dade Central District Wastewater Treatment Plant
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Acknowledgement: Lynette Cardoch, MWH
http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/fflamap.asp
Snapshot:
Snapshot: Climate
Climate Change
Change in
in
Florida
Florida
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
CERP
CERP Plan
Plan Evaluation
Evaluation
2050
Planning Horizon
2000
1965
Period
used for
modeling
Assumption: 1965-2000 period used for modeling is
representative of the climate expected during the
future planning horizon (“stationarity”)
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Role
Role of
of Models
Models in
in CERP
CERP
Project
Project
Planning
Planning
Alternative
Alternative plans
plans evaluated
evaluated in
in
developing
developing the
the project
project plan
plan to
to be
be
recommended
recommended to
to Congress
Congress for
for
construction
construction authorization
authorization
Regional &
Subregional
Modeling
Design
Construction
Operational
Planning
Project
Operation
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM)
(also known as 2x2)
„ Best available regional model
„ Distributed, integrated surface
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
water groundwater model
Regional-scale 2x2 mi, daily
time step
Major components of hydrologic
cycle
Overland and groundwater flow
Canal and levee seepage
Operations of C&SF system
Water shortage policies
Extensive performance
measures
Provides input and boundary
conditions for other models
+2 foot rise (mhhw = +4.5’ above 1929 MSL)
South Florida 2100
CR
C
TP
CS
Acknowledgement: Prof. Hal Wanless
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
+6 foot rise (mhhw = +8.5’ above 1929 MSL)
CR
South Florida 2100
C
?? EMBAYMENT
ZONE OF
HIGHER TIDES ??
TP
CS
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL
Present global rise
= 30 cm/century
1930
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
MOST OF THIS RISE IS
BECAUSE OF
THERMAL EXPANSION
OF THE OCEAN
Questions
Questions in
in Facility
Facility Planning
Planning
Planned investments cost billions of
dollars
„ Is the period of simulation (19652000) representative of the expected
hydrologic variability in the future
planning period?
„ How can we account for decadal to
multi-decadal climate variability, if
any, in modeling for CERP planning?
„ How do we account for nonstationarity due to climate change?
„
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Projections
Projections of
of Future
Future Changes
Changes in
in Climate
Climate
New in AR4: Drying in much of the subtropics, more rain in
higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of rainfall
changes already observed.
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Potential
Potential Ecosystem
Ecosystem Impacts
Impacts
„
„
„
„
„
Acceleration of the loss of coastal forest
and salt marsh ecosystem
Peat soil accretion may prevent or slow
down encroachment of salt water. Gradual
building of the peat will be critical to retard
the impact of sea level rise
If peat accretion does not keep up with SLR,
mangrove wetlands will collapse and
evolve, resulting in enhanced sedimentation
of estuaries, algal blooms, and lower light
and oxygen levels
Shallow water in Florida Bay are very
vulnerable to heat load resulting in ET
increase and hypersalinity
Acidification due to lowered pH
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Climate
Climate Change
Change Choices
Choices
(Rik Lewis, MWH)
Global
Climate
Change
Yes, Take
Action
No, Don’t Take
Action
False
(i.e.climate change
eventualities turn
out to be false)
High Economic
Impact
True
High Cost, but
worth every
penny
(i.e.climate change
eventualities turn
out to be true)
Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
Major
Catastrophic
Events
~345 billion
dollars?