Download Investigation of the effects of increases in agricultural productivity

Newton Nyairo
Tuulikki Parviainen
K.M. Zahidul Islam &
Stefan Bäckman
Investigation of the effects of
increases in agricultural productivity
with regard to food security,
employment and rural development
in general
University of Helsinki
Department of Economics and Management
Discussion Papers n:o 31
Helsinki 2009
Sustainable Rural Development with Emphasis on Agriculture and Food Security within the
Climate Change Setting (SARD-Climate) Deliverables
This Discussion Paper is part of the project Sustainable Rural Development with Emphasis on
Agriculture and Food Security within the Climate Change Setting (SARD-Climate) financed by the
Finnish Foreign Ministry
The SARD-Climate project provides report containing an analysis and policy recommendations for
a development policy aiming at a Sustainable Development with regard to agriculture and rural
areas, food security and climate. The project has been coordinated by Professor John Sumelius at
the Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of
Helsinki. Dr Stefan Bäckman has been a project secretary. The project was carried out in
cooperation with MTT Agrifood Research Finland Dr, Reimund Rötter and Dr Helena Kahiluoto
The following reports have been issued:
1. General theoretical framework (John Sumelius, Stefan Bäckman, Reimund Rötter, Helena
Kahiluoto)
2. Start-up document (John Sumelius, Stefan Bäckman)
3. Investigation of the effects of increases in agricultural productivity with regard to food security,
employment and rural development in general (Newton Nyairo, Tuulikki Parviainen, K.M.
Zahidul Islam and Stefan Bäckman)
4 .Analysis of the relation between rural poverty, malnutrition and hunger, and the interlinks with
agricultural production growth and productivity growth with special reference to Mozambique
and Bangladesh (Rose A. Ingutia, K. M. Zahidul Islam and Md. Motaher Hossain)
5. Effects of land tenure and property rights on agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, Namibia and
Bangladesh (Shimelles Tenaw, K.M. Zahidul Islam and Tuulikki Parviainen)
6. Effects of developing country policies on agricultural services, extension, rural infrastructure
and energy, health care, water and sanitation (Md. Motaher Hossain and Shimelles Tenaw)
7. Identifying the driving forces behind price fluctuations and potential food crisis (Stefan
Bäckman and John Sumelius)
8. Analysis factors affecting supply of agricultural products: market liberalization, agricultural
policies, bioenergy policies, population growth, input price development, trade policies and other
relevant factors (Newton Nyairo and Stefan Bäckman)
9. Rural financial services and effects of microfinance on agricultural productivity and on poverty
(Shimelles Tenaw and K.M. Zahidul Islam)
10. Fair Trade coffee certification. A tool for rural development and environmental protection in
Nicaragua? (Joni Valkila)
11. Implications of and possible responses to climate change (Helena Kahiluoto and Reimund
Rötter)
The SARD-Climate reports can be downloaded from the Discussion Papers publication series of
the Department of Economics and Management, UH,
http://www.mm.helsinki.fi/mmtal/julkaisut.html
Research Task 3: Investigation of the effects of increases in agricultural productivity with regard to
food security, employment and rural development in general
SARD-Climate
By Stefan Bäckman, Newton Morara Nyairo, Tuulikki Parviainen and Zahidul Islam
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Introduction
Agricultural productivity is in general terms considered to be a relation between inputs and outputs in
agriculture. To the contrary increasing input use is more a question of intensification of production. With
a productivity increase there is a shift in the frontier of the most efficient technologies but it also an
overall shift at the aggregated level. An increase in productivity does not imply increased labour
opportunities but rather the contrary. In most cases, a productivity increase is due to investments in
technology that save in labour input but increase in capital cost.
With regard to food security, increasing agricultural productivity has the potential of decreasing hunger.
However, for that to take place well functioning institutions are important. Similar institutions are also
necessary for the achievement of long-term investments in agricultural production. Besides the
contribution of agricultural productivity to food security, the level of poverty also determines the level of
food security as will be discussed in task 4.
Rural development is generally is a more complex issue where the agricultural production is only one
factor that contributes to its sustainability. The productivity of agriculture does not only affect rural
development, but it is also dependent on it. Institutions in general and rural infrastructure in particular are
important phenomena that influence productivity. Raising productivity as an economic phenomena often
leads to an increase in physical volumes and often leads to lower prices. There is therefore an increased
need to augment the scale of production in order to maintain livelihoods. However, as it is seen in the
general economic growth, agricultural productivity is a necessity for rural development. In accordance
with sustainability concerns it is necessary to consider if the productivity increase comes at an expense; if
a productivity increase comes at the expense of particular input such as energy. Showing the trade-offs is
seen as an important issue in this task.
The IPCC scenarios imply several severe climate changes that affect agricultural productivity in general.
Higher variability in rainfall together with higher temperatures, can have severe consequences. In worst
case scenarios, production levels prognoses decreased production with 40%. Farmer possibilities to
change their farming technology highly affects the shift in productivity. In addition, productivity is likely
to decrease. In many cases, however, there is an immediate need to act on current problems that are
hampering agricultural production and causing destruction and starvation.
This report contains the introduction to productivity changes and some suggested policy
recommendations based on the current situations in Kenya, Zambia, Namibia and Bangladesh.
4
1. Kenya
Abstract
This research task assesses the effects of increases in agricultural productivity with regards to food
security, employment and rural development within a climate change framework. The interconnectedness
of all these elements within agriculture cannot be refuted. There remain unanswered questions as to what
the direct links are between these factors. The term 'agricultural productivity' is measured by crop yields
or simply the amount of agricultural output produced with a given level of inputs, i.e. measured in the
amount of a single output per unit of a single input. However, the productivity trends are also viewed
within the background of poorly functioning markets and infrastructure. Low levels of investment in
agricultural research and technology, which are evident in Kenya and Zambia, as in other developing
countries in the Sub-Saharan region, are also considered. Increased human activity evident in agricultural
production, which is evident in land degradation can impact the level of output. Agricultural productivity
is critical to food security because it affects both the incomes derived from agricultural output as well as
agricultural production consumed directly as food. This implies that increasing trends in demanded food
has generated incentives to expand the resource use and to improve the technology and efficiency. Given
that food security is also anchored on agricultural productivity, particularly cash crops, its weakening
jeopardizes the survival of the remote producers who depend on it. Regarding the effect of climate
change on agriculture in developing countries, several climate change scenarios depicting a
disproportionate effect on the agricultural sector in developing countries. A combination of climatic
effects makes some developing regions vulnerable due to inadequate resources, the level of technology
and the lack of the organizational capacity to adapt to. It has therefore become imperative to stabilize
atmospheric GHG concentrations.
1.2 Agriculture in Kenya
Agriculture remains an important sector in Kenya’s economy and is still considered a fundamental
instrument in contributing to sustainable development, poverty reduction and enhanced food security. It
has become evident that raising agricultural productivity is one of those means of achieving the fore
stated objectives. Improvement of crop yields will lead to increases in the supply of food for consumption
and in combination with other favorable factors; raise incomes for the rural poor. A synergy of these
positive developments has the potential to meet poverty reduction objectives. Overall, agricultural
productivity trends in Kenya have not been as impressive as to meet the required level of food security or
meet the development that the country needs in order to begin dealing with the many challenges it faces.
The government of Kenya has strived to improve agricultural productivity through donor and government
supported initiatives such as the Kenya Agricultural Productivity Project (KAPP), the Agricultural Sector
Programme Support (ASPS) and the National Agriculture and Livestock Extension Programme. However,
there is little evidence to suggest that these national programmes have resulted in any significant impact
on smallholder agriculture. However, these initiatives express the government’s recognition of the role
that agricultural productivity plays in leading to a sustainable agricultural sector.
Agriculture continues to be a fundamental instrument for sustainable development, poverty reduction and
enhanced food security in Kenya. However, the agricultural productivity levels are well below that of
other regions in the world, and are well below the threshold required to attain food security goals and to
meet poverty reduction goals. Since the early 2000s agricultural productivity growth in Kenya, as was in
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a few other African countries has been quite impressive, yet it is not sufficiently sustainable. Sustained
and accelerated growth requires a sharp increase in productivity of smallholder farmers (Kibaara et al.,
2008). The government of Kenya has underscored the importance of agricultural productivity through
several programs: The Strategy to Revitalize Agriculture (SRA), Kenya Vision 2030, Comprehensive
African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) and Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa
(AGRA). These programs are aimed at improving agricultural productivity, but their ultimate objective is
to aggressively fight poverty. Production has moved away from being driven by the area of land to being
driven by productivity growth.
Research conducted on productivity with regard to maize, the main staple crop in Kenya, indicated that
there are positive indications in maize productivity trends in the country. The changing productivity
outcomes are evident in smallholder producers who are increased their use of fertilizer and high yield
hybrid seeds. Agricultural retail outlets in the country are also on the rise, a situation that has provided
farmers with greater access to agricultural inputs. Some of the reasons attributed to these increasing
trends include a rise in the use of fertilizers by smallholder farmers. The main input used by most farmers,
particularly small scale farmers, consist of fertilizer.
In theory agricultural growth bestows a wide range of positive externalities to the agricultural economy.
The most direct contribution of agricultural growth is the generation of higher incomes for farmers.
Agricultural growth is assumed to mitigates the effects of poverty and to improve food security among
these rural farmers. Growth in agricultural productivity has the potential of directly raising incomes. If
increased output drive down output prices, or costs of production rise as the demand for inputs increases,
the rise in gross margins may be small (Irz et al., 2001). With regard to food security, improvements in
agricultural productivity are in theory assumed to render greater benefits to the farm population. A
majority of the cereal and staple food products are directly consumed by households and the rest of it sold
in markets. Most of the cash crops grown in smaller scale is collected and transported for processing.
Most of their incomes come from these cash crops, as well as from cereal production.
1.3 Climate change, agricultural productivity energy policies in Kenya
Even with the increasing intensity of droughts and floods in many parts of East Africa, insufficient
available data on precipitation warrant more established trends in the southern hemisphere as in the
northern hemisphere (Huq & Reid, 2005). However, resulting changes in temporal climatic changes
exhibited in erratic rainfall trends, regular occurrence of droughts as well as disruptive floods in some
part of the country, are a common occurrence. These weather disruptions do not however offer clear
scenarios of what the future of the various sectors of the economy will be and their response to these
changes.
Existing gaps on research on the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity makes it difficult
to factor the effects of climate change on disaster preparedness and risk management. Instead, focus has
been on dealing with the impacts of climate change, rather than having anticipatory measures that could
reduce the extent of damage whenever climate related disasters occur. Local communities are ill informed
on how to deal with the aftermath of disasters (droughts, landslides or floods) whenever they occur. Early
warnings are unnecessarily insufficient for a precautionary response and fail to give people a chance to
take the necessary measures to mitigate the impacts of the eventuality of a natural disaster.
Climate variability affects major parts of the country. For agricultural producers, this condition creates
uncertainty in the planning of agricultural activities. The provision of information regarding climate
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change requires comprehensive research on climate variability and its long-term trend. The present
indicators of climate change, whether it is the reduction of river flows, increasing frequency of drought or
disappearance of certain plants are not in themselves sufficient in providing accurate information
regarding climatic forecasts. The need to develop a better understanding of the human interactions
between land transformations and climate variability
Forests perform many roles and provide several products (for example rain catchments, provision of
habitats, supply of timber, wood fuel, and medicinal products). Biomass account for approximately 68
per cent of the Kenya's energy needs (Huq & Reid, 2005). Weather changes, particularly if those changes
are negative, have widespread impacts on not only the energy sector, but also the economic activities that
directly depend on the climate. However, excessive rains can also interfere with electrical power supply
when falling trees interrupt power supply. However, this does not imply that it is an urgent problem in the
country considering the proportion of forest-covered area in the country. Even with the existing level of
forests, energy sector challenges in the country would still persist.
The effect of climate variability is of concern for agricultural producers in the East African region.
Variability is high in semi-arid areas where production systems are already vulnerable and under stress
from the effects of little access to rainfall. In Kenya, it is not the average amount of rainfall received in a
region, but it is the distribution that is important. Rainfall distribution is particularly important for the
regions of the country where rain-fed agriculture is practiced. Under such agricultural circumstances,
long absence of rain during the growing season for example often leads to poor crops for that season.
Emphasis on climate variability for agricultural production for the market and for domestic consumption
emanates from its failure to uptake improved technologies. Poor household have little income for
investment in agricultural technologies that reduce their reliance on rain-fed agriculture and food security.
Micro-irrigation technologies could be used in the irrigation of the regions deficient in rain. However,
these technologies would vary with season and reliable forecasts would serve prospective consumers of
this technology Kenya arises from
1.3.1 Agricultural Productivity and food security in Kenya and Zambia
Against a background of limited arable land, predictive adverse climate conditions and declining
agricultural productivity, the governments of both Kenya and Zambia are faced with a big challenge of
intensifying food production so that output would keep up with the rapid population growth. Agricultural
production is currently based on the use of fertilizer, plant breeding technology, irrigation of drier lands
and improved agricultural practices such as multi-cropping (Kabubo-Mariara & Karanja, 2007). However,
productivity is undermined by declines in soil fertility and erratic weather conditions. Kabubo-Mariara &
Karanja (2007) concur that most literature that assert that there is a dearth of information on the effect of
climate change on agricultural productivity. Some studies have concluded that declining soil fertility in
Kenya can be associated with declining agricultural productivity.
In Kenya the role of climate in soil formation and its effects on soil type is an important factor. The effect
takes place directly through weathering and indirectly as a result of its influence on the vegetation
(Kabubo-Mariara & Karanja, 2007). The agricultural sector is the beneficiary of these negative outcomes
through poor yields resulting from depleted soils. The vulnerability of livelihoods through reduced
agricultural production has a direct food security dimension. Arid and semi-arid regions make up an a
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major part of the Kenyan landsize. The main agricultural activity in these regions comprises of livestock
rearing, which is already vulnerable dure to the scarce vegetation and water.
Research based on other studies elsewhere in Asia concludes that modern varieties of food crops are
labour-intensive (Mosley, 2002). Mosley (2002) argues, based on research from Kenya Malawi, Uganda
and Zimbabwe, that average labour input on traditional varieties of maize are 0.9 person-days per hectare
and on modern days as 1.9 person days. These crops impose greater demands for labour for weeding,
harvesting and soil conservation; they are intensive in the sole factor of production for which the poor can
sell in abundance. The fact that they can raise yields, as these studies have suggested, raises the supply
price of labour within the rural areas. Modern crop require the application of labour-intensive practices
such as deep ploughing, fertilizer application and frequent weeding. The increase in food crop yields, and
more specifically production, reduces the consumer price of food and thus lower the cost of living for the
rural poor, whose expenditure pattern mainly consists of staple foods. These advances do not reach the
core of the chronic poverty that pervades many rural African communities. The Asian experience with
the 'Green Revolution' reflected food security and poverty-reduction gains. While overall gains from SubSaharan Africa are weak or minimal, the potential such that in Uganda with regard to cassava can be
replicated elsewhere in the African region.
1.3.1.1 Agricultural Productivity and poverty in Zambia
Agriculture is not only a human activity at risk from climate change, but it is also a major drive of
environmental and climate change itself (FAO, 2008). It has the largest human impact on water and land
resources. Globally, 1.4 billion ha of arable land are used for crop cultivation and an additional 2.5 billion
ha are used for pasture (FAO, 2008). Annually a considerable level of human activity is engaged in all
forms of agricultural activity ranging from fishing to cereal production.
In addition to land resource use, agriculture uses water for irrigation utilizing large amounts of fresh
water for irrigation drawn from rivers, lakes and aquifers. In turn irrigation sustains a lot of food supply.
Large amounts of chemical inputs are utilized in the achievement of higher crop yields in intensive
production systems leading to localized pollution.
As a result of these large-scale activities, agriculture is a major contributor to land degradation and a
major emitter of greenhouse gases. In Kenya and Zambia, countries poorly represented in current impact
assessment of agriculture and climate change, the effects on productivity are widespread. Negative
surprises such as continued frequency of extreme events links to droughts and flooding, and increased
pests and diseases are likely, portending large impacts on food systems in the next few decades. Such
scenarios are the sources of concern, especially in terms of the significant impact on the vulnerable
located in developing countries.
1.4. Conclusion
Research from Kenya indicates that ground water resources are not affected to the same extent as surface
water. Therefore, water development needs to focus more on this resource to buffer against climate
extremes. With such approach in mind, further research must be undertaken and existing ones fortified in
order to establish more research-based conclusions on the effects of climate change. Current attributions
to climate change are based on some climate forecasts that, in some cases, are alarmist, particularly with
8
regard to the effects of climate on smallholder agriculture and food security thereof. Water resource
managers and policy makers need information on how the quantity and quality of water resources may be
affected by future climatic conditions.
Land use activities often lead to changes in microclimate through altering the vegetation cover on a
watershed. Changes in land cover may also alter stream flows and results in increased sediment and
nutrient loading to rivers and lakes. Policymakers must make the appropriate distinctions between
extensive and intensive methods and support research extension services to educate rural farmers on how
farming practices can influence future agricultural yields. There are limitations in the extensive
production approach due to the fast-rising population in many parts of rural Kenya and Kenya. It might
be more economically rational to consider more intensive production techniques, but suggest the
selection of crops and production techniques. Higher yield crops with the potential to reduce food
insecurity should top the list of probable crops.
The declining trend in agricultural productivity particularly in Kenya is worrying and it is a real challenge
for a country with a population of over 30 million. Worse still, global warming brings about the expected
effects of climate change. The need for capacity building to upgrade existing national and local
awareness on the dangers of global warming and climate change. Currently, neither Kenya nor Zambia
has seriously considered comprehensive studies on how to support and finance a nationwide program to
discuss the adverse effect of the drastic changes in weather events. The adverse socio-economic effects of
these weather events such as shortage of food, water, energy and other basic needs demand
comprehensive policy assessment.
References
C.B. Barret, T. Reardon, P. Webb.2001, Non-farm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural
Africa: concepts, dynamics, and policy implications. Food Policy 26: 315-331
Xavier Irz, Lin Lin, Colin Thirtle and Steve Wiggins. 2001, Agricultural productivity growth and poverty alleviation
Development policy review, 2001, 19(4): 449-466
Kabubo-Mariara, J. & Karanja, F. K. 2007. The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A
Ricardian approach. Policy Research Working Paper 4334. The World Bank.
Kibaara, B., Ariga, J., Olwande, J. & Jayne, T.S. 2008, Trends in Kenya agricultural productivity: 1997-2007. Tegemeo
Institute, Working Paper 31/2008.
Huq, S. & Reid, H. 2005, Climate change and development in Kenya. International Institute for Environment and
Development
FAO. May 2008. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Challenges and Opportunities for Food Security. July
2009. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/meeting/013/k2545e.pdf
Mosley, P. 2002. The African Green Revolution as a pro-poor policy instrument. Journal of International Development,
2002, 14: 695-724.
UNDP. 2005, Human Development Report. International Trade - Unlocking the potential for human development.
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2. Namibia
Abstract
Namibia is one of the driest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and its agricultural sector is already now
sensitive to climatic conditions. Namibia is also predicted to face absolute water scarcity by the year 2020,
as well as temperature increase of 1-4 Celsius by 2046-2065, and changes in rain patterns and quantities.
However, the climate change is still regarded as a remote future event in Namibia.
The water sector is the most vulnerable sector in Namibia within the climate change context. This sector
has also a clear link to the agricultural productivity. Both sectors, agriculture and water, need more
reliable data on climate change issues.
The Finnish funded bilateral aid was phased out in Namibia in 2009. However, Namibia is still entitled to
have the Finnish funded regional programmes. The water sector might be a relevant sector for a regional
programme in the sustainable agriculture within the climate change setting. Water is a fundamental and
scarce resource in the agricultural production in Namibia.
The water issues are vital for Namibia and its neighbouring countries, and they will become more crucial
along the advancement of the climate change. In the water issues Namibia and the neighbouring countries
have already in place the official regional context through the SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses,
which enables the cooperation.
Key words: Namibia, agricultural productivity, forestry, water sector, regional programme.
2.1 Namibia
Namibia is ranked to be a low middle income country, based on a per capita income of over US$ 2000
(UNDP 2007 p. 8). However, inequality in income distribution, standard of living and quality of life exist
in Namibia, for the society is dualistic. The agricultural sector is also divided into two, communal and
commercial agriculture.
In rural areas unemployment, relatively poor performance of subsistence agriculture, population growth
and HIV/AIDS are common. The high prevalence of HIV (17.8 % among pregnant women in 2008,
MHSS 2008) is one of causes in low agricultural productivity, especially in communal areas.
The arid conditions limit the productivity of the agricultural sector. (See Task 5; Namibia). To enhance
the agricultural production, Namibia has launched the Green Scheme (Shernbourne 2009 p. 84). However,
the maximum area under the irrigation in Namibia can reach only 45,000 hectares. In 1994 the
agricultural sector employed 102,636 people. However, the baseline growth scenario for 2011 is
declining, 99,833 people (NPC 2008 p. 41). The working age population is expected to increase by 2011
to 1,410,180, about 2.6 percent annum.
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2.2. Climate change and the link to the agricultural productivity, energy policy and food security in
Namibia.
In Southern Africa the warmest and driest decade was 1986-1995 (UNAM 2008 p. 56). Based on rainfall
projections, Southern Africa will receive 10-20 percent less rainfall by 2050, which will drop the
perennial surface drainage of 75 to 25 percent by the year 2050 (Dirkx et al. 2008 p. 56). Winters are
projected to be dryer and shorter, veldt fires will increase, crop varieties will be impacted, and soil
moisture will reduce. In general, in Africa intensified droughts, a more volatile weather, higher seasonal
temperatures and a change in crop varieties should be taken into account on agricultural production (UN
2009).
2.2.1 Climate change in Namibia
Namibia is one of the driest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and highly dependent on climate sensitive
sectors. According to the Initial National Communication, Namibia has seven vulnerable sectors; water
resources, marine resources, agriculture, biodiversity ecosystems, coastal zones, health and energy (NPC
2002).
Namibia ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995 and
acceded to Kyoto Protocol in October 2003 (Kaura 2009). The National Climate Change Committee,
which was established in 2001 and is chaired by the Ministry of Environment and Tourism, is a platform
for exchanging knowledge, and consist of key actors in climate change matters. The committee meets
every second month but activities are limited, due to lack of capacity and funds. The Initial
Communication was submitted in 2002, which classifies Namibia as highly vulnerable to predicted
effects of climate change. The Second Communication is under preparation (UNAM 2008 p. 1).
Namibia does not yet have any specific policy to address the climate change. However, there is a wide
range of policies and programmes concerning natural resource management and sustainable
environmental development under current climatic conditions (Reid et al. 2007 p. 7). Namibia has two
approaches in the climate change: mitigation; e.g. renewable energy, and adaptation; e.g. drought
resistant crops (Kaura 2009).
According to the Namibia's greenhouse gas inventory, which was completed in 1998, Namibia's
greenhouse gas contribution to global atmosphere is minimal (NPC 2002 p. xvi). The share of Namibia's
global CO2 emission was 0.05 percent in 1994 (IPCC 2001). Energy related CO2 -emissions were 1821
Gg/year and land use change and forestry -5716 Gg/year. Namibia is a sink of greenhouse gases due to
uptake of carbon dioxide by trees (NPC 2002 p. xvi, 21).
2.2.1.1 Predicted climatic changes
In Namibia maximum temperatures have been getting hotter over the past 40 years, as observed in the
frequency of days exceeding 35 Celsius, and the frequencies of days with temperatures below 5 Celsius
have been getting less (Dirkx et al. 2008 p. xii). Also the frequency and intensity of extreme events are
likely to increase (Reid et al. 2007 p. ii).
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A recent climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Namibia predicts that by 2046-2065
Namibia will meet a temperature increase of 1-3.5 C in summer and 1-4 C in winter, stronger variability
in rainfall, and increased and shorter rainy season.
Evaporation and evapotranspiration are expected to increase in the range of 5-15 percent (Seely &
Montgomery 2008 p. 8), for central and eastern Namibia 4-8 percent, for north central regions 8-12
percent, and for Caprivi region 12-16 percent (UNAM 2008 p. XVI). Also a decrease up to 5 percent in
the mean annual precipitation is anticipated (UNAM 2008 p. 56). Even if rainfall changes a little, rises in
temperature will boost evaporation rates, leading to severe water shortages.
2.2.1.2 Climate change monitoring
Namibia is a member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and collaborates with
SADC climate monitoring initiatives, especially with the Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) and the
Regional Remote Sensing Unit (RRSU), both situated in Harare, Zimbabwe (NPC 2002 p. 48).
The Global Climate Models have been used already for 30 years, and they rather well produce the present
climate (Hari et al. 2008 p. 522), despite the fact that models work at a spatial scale of 200-300 km
(Johnston 2009). However, more collaboration in modelling is needed among Southern African research
groups (NPC 2002 p. 65). In Namibia the Namibian rainfall/runoff model (BANROM) is used (Dirkx et
al. 2008 p. 58).
In Namibia about 100 stations provide full year round records on rainfall (NPC 2002 p. 57). Six weather
stations record most of the standard meteorological parameters on an hourly basis. However, to increase
the accuracy of forecasts, a more representative network across the country is needed. At the moment, the
availability of data is the major limitation in climate research in Namibia (UNAM 2008 p. XVIII). The
Namibian agriculture needs more information on extreme weather events and temperatures, as well as on
rainy seasons and seasonal rainfall performance.
2.3 Agricultural productivity and food security in Namibia
In Namibia agriculture is extremely sensitive to climate conditions. Much of land for agricultural purpose
is already marginal, and a change in rainfall variability and quantity could mean that agriculture is no
longer viable (Reid et al. 2007 p. 13). Drought is a natural and frequent feature in Namibia.
In Namibia farmers are already now, in normal agricultural production, encouraged to diversify income
sources and adopt drought mitigating farming practices in an economically and ecologically sound
manner, taking low and variable rainfall into account. The ways are; diversified crops, locally adapted
indigenous breeds, local animal feeds, water conservation, improvement of soil fertility and water
retention by agroforestry, soft loans for wildlife management to diversify income, charcoal production,
and improved food storage and preservation (DEA 2006 p. F34). A shift from livestock to wildlife-based
production system should be promoted. Generally indigenous game is better adapted to local conditions
than livestock. However, experiments on adaptability, heat tolerance and disease resistance of various
livestock species and breeds are lacking (UNAM 2008 p. XIX).
The National Agricultural Policy of 1995 in Namibia strives to achieve growth and stability in farm
income, agricultural productivity and production at rates exceeding national population growth (DEA
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2006 p. F32). The Third National Development Plan's (NDP3) goal strategies in agriculture sector for
years 2007/8-2011/12 are; 1) to manage soil erosion and nutrient depletion through enabling policies and
legislation, 2) to promote the use of soil fertility enhancement technologies, 3) to promote the utilisation
and commercialisation of indigenous plant resources, 4) to ensure sound animal surveillance through
regular livestock inspections, 5) to facilitate community and stakeholder involvement in the sustainable
management and utilisation of forest resources, and 6) to promote the formulation and implementation of
conservancy management plans. (NPC 2008 p. 109.)
2.3.1 Decreased agricultural productivity
The Namibian agriculture is conducted on large commercial, subsistence, and small commercial scales.
Livestock farming and dry land crop production dominate the industry. (See Task 5; Namibia).
Climate factors have a great influence on agricultural productivity in Namibia. The traditional
agricultural sector is predicted to suffer the most from climate change. Even under the best-case scenarios
the subsistence farming will fall sharply, and in some regions the dry land cropping is even predicted to
disappear entirely. It is assumed that the reduction could be from 40 to 80 percent of production at a
national level (Reid et al. 2007 p. 23), leading to the increased inequality in Namibia.
Rainy seasons are already following unexpected patterns in Namibia (IECN 2008 p.4). A trend towards
greater aridity could be associated with a shift towards farming with more small stock and game (NPC
2002 p. 40).
According to the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), large farms with
livestock production will be more vulnerable to climate change than small farms; beef cattle is not well
suited to warm temperatures (Reid et al. 2007 p. 14). Specific livestock breeds can be negatively affected
by hotter and drier climate (IECN 2008 p. 12). The carrying capacity can be reduced from 20 to 50
percent.
The livestock sector in Namibia will experience changes in quality and quantity of vegetation, availability
of fodder, animal health, and calving and mortality rates (UNAM 2008 p. XV). About 59 percent of
Namibia's cattle, 10 percent of sheep and 72 percent of goats are in communal areas (Agronomic Board
2007).
Bush encroachment, the invasion and/or thickening of aggressive undesired woody species on pastures, is
another serious problem in the Namibian livestock sector. It concerns 26 million hectares of woodland
savannahs. In these natural pastures the carrying capacity can decline from 1 LSU per 10 ha to 1 LSU per
20-30 ha (de Klerk 2004).
2.3.2 Forestry and the climate change in Namibia
Drought is known to significantly affect savannah and grassland ecosystems. Some savannah tree species
seem to be sensitive to seasonal temperatures (Reid et al. 2007 p. 10). Reductions in plant cover and
productivity are predicted in Southern African savannahs. Veldt fires can cause loss of the scarce
vegetation.
13
Forest and savannah fires are likely to get more intense and extensive (Mendelshon and El Obeid 2005,
UNAM 2008 p. 59). About 20 percent of living above-ground biomass is assumed to burn because fires
generally occur after a long dry season (NPC 2002 p. 26-27). The scarce vegetation and soil serve as
carbon stocks, and they release carbon to the atmosphere by burning. The burning of savannah is the
largest source of N2O emissions in Namibia, contributing about 77 percent to the national N2O emissions.
However, the total national emissions of N2O in 1994 were very small, less than 1 Gg.
2.3.3 Water sector and climate change in Namibia
Namibia is regarded to be the driest country in the SADC, Southern Development Community (MAWRD
2005 p. 4). Namibia's scarce water resources are unevenly distributed over the country. Therefore, the
sustainable management of water resources is extremely important for Namibia. The Government of
Namibia tries to enhance the efficient water use (Kaura 2009).
The water sector is also the most vulnerable to the climate change, river flows and water resources might
be affected. Namibia is predicted to face absolute water scarcity by the year 2020.
About 45 percent of Namibia's water is coming from groundwater sources, 33 percent from the Border
Rivers (mainly in the north) and 22 percent from impoundment on ephemeral rivers (UNAM 2008 p. 10).
The assured annual water yield is about 500 million m3; per capita water supply is below 300 m3 per year.
Namibia is one of the few countries in the world that constructs water supply impoundments also on
ephemeral rivers (Dirkx et al. 2008 p. 48). The annual river run-off from ephemeral rivers is 200 Mm3 per
annum.
Namibia shares all of its major perennial rivers with its neighbours. The SADC Protocol on Shared
Watercourses outlines the guidelines for the usage of water from shared watercourses in the SADC
countries (MAWRD 2005). The water resources should be looked after equally and sustainable, for
present and future users. Basin Management Committees are responsible for managing basins on an
integrated basis. Four out of eleven river basins in Namibia have River Basin Management Committees
(Dirkx et al. 2008 p. 135).
Namibia is a leader in Africa in experience of conjunctive use and integrated water resource management
principles (Dirkx et al. 2008 p. xvii). However, more information is needed on e.g. impact of floods,
flood water harvesting and access to safe water during the rainy season. To understand and to model the
impact of climate variability and climate change on stream flow in perennial rivers, patterns of rainfall
over Angola and Western Zambia are needed to be known (Dirkx et al. 2008 p. 54).
2.4 Vulnerability and adaptation
Vulnerability to environmental change in agriculture depends on change in frequency or duration of
climatic conditions, and the capacity to respond adequately to those changes; 1) likelihood to be exposed
and affected to new climatic circumstances, 2) capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from
the environmental change impacts, and 3) capacity to adapt to climatic variability and change (Galvin et
al. 2004, Dirkx et al. 2008 p. 23). For Namibia the disaster preparedness is more important, rather than
disaster response, e.g. raising awareness among communities in the climate change (Kaura 2009). Also a
formal and collective land-use planning helps to manage resources better.
14
2.4.1 Adaptation
Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is the capability to deal with climate change challenges, aiming at to
reduce vulnerability and to improve the capacity of people to adapt, especially those who rely on
agriculture for their livelihoods (IECN 2008 p. 16, Dirkx et al. 2008 p. xv). Adaptation has potential to
reduce adverse impact of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts (Walker 2009), by using
increased diversification and management practices (Dirkx et al. 2008 p. 120). Adaptation practices
require extensive high quality data and information on climate (UNAM 2008. p. XVII).
Some suitable adaptation methods in agricultural production for climate change in Southern Africa are:
soil interventions; a) matching tillage with different soil types; 2) apply conservation agriculture
principles; c) soil - crop matching; d) use planting basins, and e) mulching to conserve soil water by
reducing soil surface evaporation. Also moving to alternative grazing area is a solution to reduce risks.
(Walker 2009.)
Often farmers have insufficient information for reliable decision-making, information can come too late,
or too little guidance exists on response action. In adaptation the rural economic environment should be
diversified and rural-urban linkages should be strengthened (Dirkx et al. 2008 p. xvii).
In Namibia the objectives in adaptation are to have suitable existing data and community planning tools
for farming system changes (IECN 2008 p. 20). For example, irrigation and crop diversification should
be promoted, and water harvesting technologies and conservation agriculture systems should be
introduced. Also the shared water management and early warning systems should be promoted (UNAM
2008 p. XVI).
The National Early Warning and Food Information Unit (NEWFIU) is piloting a food and livelihood
security monitoring system in six regions in Namibia for better understanding of important seasonal
factors and trends in food security. The Coping Strategy Index (CSI) measures the frequency and severity
of actions taken by households in response to the presence or threat of a food shortage. A lower score
implies reduced stress on the household and relatively better food security (MAWF 2006).
The climate change is still regarded as a remote future event in Namibia. However, according to the
predictions of the changing climate for Namibia, the rainy season will be more intensive and shorter, and
also temperature will be higher. The adaptation to these circumstances will need capacity building,
training, research and institutional development, which will need human and financial resources.
2.5. Conclusions
According to the earlier political decision, the last Finnish funded bilateral programme in Namibia was
phased out in April 2009. However, Namibia is still entitled to the Finnish funded regional programmes,
normally through SADC or NEPAD. Consequently at present Finland carries out two regional
programmes in Southern Africa where Namibia is involved, and at the end of 2009 there will be three
more programmes. The sectors are; renewable energy, science park, trade& development (OECD), trade
(EPA) and meteorology. The regional programmes are implemented through the Embassy of Finland in
Pretoria, South Africa. Namibia's on-going projects on sustainable agriculture within climate change
setting are listed in Appendix 1.
15
According to the interviewed people in May-June 2009 in Windhoek in Namibia, possible sectors for
Namibia for a regional programme on sustainable agriculture within climate change setting could be;
water, agriculture and forestry. Particularly a research programme might create additional value for the
Finnish development cooperation, for there is a need for more research to get more data from above
mentioned sectors within climate change setting. This data could be valuable also regionally and globally.
More data is needed on rainfall, temperatures, humidity, vegetation, floods, and anticipated medium-term
climate change impacts, for example (DEA 2006 p. G2).
A combination Namibia-Botswana in the regional programme might be good. These two countries have
similar type of problems in agriculture, forestry and water sectors. A combination of Namibia, Botswana
and Northern Cape Province in South-Africa (but not the whole South-Africa) could also be possible. In
the research project, a possible research partner in Botswana could be Harry Oppenheimer Okavango
Research Centre (HOORC), which is a part of University of Botswana. In Cape Province in South-Africa
a research partner could be University of Cape Town. (Seely 2009.)
In the forestry sector Namibia could have cooperation also with Zambia (Hailwa 2009). However, the
only relevant form of cooperation in the forestry sector within the climate change setting might be the
forest fire management. Forest fires cross the borders easily in the northern Namibia. The forest fire issue
was not discussed with the forestry sector people in May-June 2009 but it has been brought up earlier.
In water sector more cooperation with Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana would be beneficial in
a climate change context, especially in flooding (Nehemia 2009). In general, the water sector might be
the most relevant sector for a regional programme in the context of the climate change. Water issues are
vital for Namibia and its neighbouring countries. The regional cooperation is also a natural way to work
in the water sector. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry (MAWF) Strategic Plan
2008/9 to 2012/3 there is an annual deficit of N$1.2 billion (EURO 120 million), 74 percent of the total
budget, which makes this kind of cooperation more difficult for Namibia.
It is predicted that the water sector will suffer the most of the climate change in Namibia. The negative
effects will extend to other sectors, especially to the agricultural sector, reducing the agricultural
productivity. In Namibia the climate change could be renamed to be the water quantity change.
2.6 Interviews in May-June 2009 in Windhoek, Namibia
Mr. Asko Luukkanen, Chargé d'Affaires, Embassy of Finland, Windhoek
Mr. Janne Sykkö, Counsellor, Embassy of Finland, Windhoek
Mrs. Susan-Marie Lewis, Director of Development Cooperation, National Planning Commission
Mr. Abraham Nehemia, Under-Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry, MAWF
Mrs. Marina Coetzee, Chief Agricultural Researcher, Analytical Services, MAWF
Mr. Seehamandje Ipinge, Acting Director, Agricultural Research, MAWF
Mr. Joseph Hailwa, Director, Forestry, MAWF
Mr. Teophilus Nghitila, Director, Environmental Affairs, Chairperson of Climate Change Committee in Namibia, Ministry of
Environment and Tourism, MET
Ms. Uazamo Kaura, Environmental Affairs, Member of Climate Change Committee in Namibia, MET
Dr. Mary Seely, Reseracher, Desert Research Foundation of Namibia, DRFN
Dr. Patrik Klintenberg, Researcher, Namibian Institute for Sustainable Development
Mrs. Elaine Smith, Manager; Research and Development, Namibia Agricultural Union, NAU
Prof. Geoff Brundrit, Global Ocean Observing System in Africa
Dr. Peter Johnston, Applied Climatologist, University of Cape Town
16
2.7 References
DEA. 2006. Namibia: Land Management Practice and Environmental Sustainability. Research Discussion paper no. #76.
Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Namibia. 112p.
Dirkx, E., Hager, C., Tadross, M., Bethune, S. & Curtis, B. 2008. Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment,
Namibia. Final Report. March 2008. Developed by Desert Research Foundation of Namibia & Climate Systems Analysis
Group for the Ministry of Environment and Tourism. 169 p.
Galvin, K. A., Thornton, P. K. & Boone, R. B. et al. 2004. Climate Variability and Impacts on East African Livestock Herders:
The Masao of Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania. African Journal of Range & Forage Science. 21: 183-189.
Hailwa, J. 2009. Interview in Windhoek, Namibia in May-June 2009.
Hari, P. & Kulmala, L. 2008. Boreal Forest and Climate Change. Advances in Global Change Research 34. Springer. 582 p.
IECN. 2008. NATSE OTWEYA! Dealing with Climate Change. A community information toolkit on adaptation. A resource
package developed for farmers in North-Central Regions, Namibia. November 2008. Climate Change Adaptation (CCA)
project North-Central Regions of the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry (MAWF) a sub-project under the Country
Pilot Partnership for Sustainable Land Management. Prepared by: Integrated Environmental Consultants Namibia (IECN). 36
p.
IPCC. 2001. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Cambridge, UK.
Kaura, U. 2009. Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Directorate of Environmental Affairs.
Regional Seminar on Climate Change - Mitigation and Adaptation, 11 May 2009 Pelican Bay Hotel, Walvis Bay, Namibia.
May 11-15, 2009.
Johnston, P. 2009. Climate Change Vulnerability and Modelling/Regional Downscaling with Focus on Southern Africa.
Climate Change; Mitigation & Adaptation 2009. Regional Seminar. Walvis Bay, Namibia. May 11-15, 2009.
de Klerk, J.N. 2004. Bush encroachment in Namibia. Report on Phase 1 of the Bush Encroachment Research, Monitoring and
Management Project. Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Namibia. 255 p.
MAWF. 2009. Namibia: Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry Strategy Plan 2008/9 to 2012/13. Launched on 3rd July
2009. 65p.
MAWF. 2006. Technical Summary of Water Accounts. Department of Water Affairs and Forestry. Ministry of Agriculture,
Water and Forestry. Windhoek. 75 p.
MAWRD. 2005. Namibia Water Resources Management Review. Institutions & Community Participation: Theme Report.
Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development. 75 p.
Mendelsohn, J. & El Obeid, S. 2005. Forests and Woodlands in Namibia. MAWF. 152 p.
MHSS. 2008. Report on the 2008 National HIV Sentinel Survey. HIV Prevalence rate in pregnant woman, biannual survey
1992-2008, Namibia. Ministry of Health and Social Services. 40 p.
Namibian Agronomic Board. Annual Report. 1 April 2006 - 31 March 2007. No. 20. Windhoek, Namibia. 67 p.
Nehemia, A. 2009. Interview in Windhoek, Namibia in May-June 2009.
NPC. 2002. Namibia, Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. July
2002. National Planning Commission. 79 + 53 p.
17
NPC. 2006. 2003/2004 Namibia Household Income & Expenditure Survey. Main Report. Central Bureau of Statistics.
National Planning Commission. 208 p.
NPC. 2008. Third National Development Plan (NDP3) 2007/08-2011/12. Volume 1. National Planning Commission. 302 p.
Reid, H., Sahlén, L., MacGregor, J. & Stage, J. 2007. The economic impact of climate change in Namibia. How climate
change will effect the contribution of Namibia's natural resources to its economy. Discussion Paper 07-02. November 2007.
International Institute for Environment and Development. 47 p.
Seely, M. 2009. Interview in Windhoek, Namibia in May -June 2009.
Seely, M. & Montgomery, S. 2008. Proud of our deserts: combating desertification. An NGO perspective on a National
Programme to Combat Desertification. 181 p.
Sherbourne, R. 2009. Guide to the Namibian Economy. Institute for Public Policy Research. 380 p.
UN. 2009. African Agriculture in the 21st Century. Meeting the Challenges, Making a Sustainable Green Revolution. HighLevel Meeting Convened by the UN Commission for Sustainable Development. 9-10 February, 2009 in Windhoek, Namibia.
UNDP. 2007. Trends in Human Development and Human Poverty in Namibia. Background paper to the Namibia Human
Development Report, October 2007. 32 p. (www.undp.un.na/poverty/home.htm).
UNAM: 2008. Research in Farming Systems Change to Enable Adaptation to Climate Change. Undertaken for the Ministry of
Environment and Tourism and the United Nations Development Program Namibia, in preparation of Namibia's Second
National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. University of Namibia. 103 p.
Walker, S. 2009. Agricultural Interventions for Climate Change Adaptation. Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences.
University of the Free State. Bloemfontein, South Africa. Regional Seminar. Walvis Bay, Namibia. May 11-15, 2009.
18
Appendix 1 Namibia's on-going projects on sustainable agriculture within climate change setting
Namibia has had/has few projects, which are linked to the sustainable agriculture within climate change
setting;
1) Oshikoto Livestock Development Project (2004-2006); The project was funded by EU, the European Development Fund
EDF and the Government of Namibia. The overall goal was to enhance the livelihoods of small-holder households in Oshikoto
region through livestock improvement strategies.
2) Desert Margins Programme (2003-2007); The overall objective was to arrest land degradation in Africa's desert margins
through demonstration and capacity building activities.
3) Emerging Commercial Farmers' Support Programme (2008-2009); The programme is supported by EU, EDF9,
Namibia National Farmers' Union and Namibia Agricultural Union. The purpose is to enhance agricultural information,
knowledge, skills and attitudes, and improve support services to emerging commercial farmers in 8 regions where free-hold
tenure farms are established.
4) Country Pilot Partnership (CPP) for Integrated Sustainable Land Management (2008-2013); The overall goal of the
programme is to reduce and reverse the process of land degradation in Namibia. The programme is funded by GEF, UNDP
and World Bank and it lies in the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry. The programme consists of sub-programmes;
a) Country Pilot Partnership (CPP) for Integrated Sustainable Land Management Support and Adaptive Management (CPP
NAM ISLM) programme (in Kavango, Caprivi, Kunene, Omaheke and Otjzondjupa) is to find innovative ways of managing
land that the natural environment restores and people's income increases.
b) Adapting to Climate Change through Improvement of Traditional Crops and Livestock Farming (CPP NAM CCA)
programme is to help small farmers in Namibia's north central regions (Omusati) to better manage and cope with climate
change.
c) Enhancing Institutional and Human Resource Capacity through Local Level Coordination of Integrated Rangeland
Management and Support (CPP NAM CALLC) programme (in Omusati, Oshana and Oshikoto) is to test ways for
communities to work together with government and other bodies to better manage grazing lands and to help communities set
clear goals on managing lands and generating income.
d) Promoting Environmental Sustainability through Improved Land Use Planning (CPP NAM PESILUP) programme (in
Omusati, Oshana, Oshikoto, Ohangwena, Kavango and Hardap) is to improve the ability of national governments, regional
councils, municipalities, business and others to plan land use to benefit communities.
5) Millennium Challenge Account (2009-2014); The Millennium Challenge Account's, with funding from the US
Millennium Challenge Corporation. One component is to enhance livestock management for improved income generation and
economic benefits among communal farmers, including livestock marketing, animal health and nutrition and grazing
management.
6) Groundwater monitoring 20077) CBEND 2007-2009; The programme is supported by EU, EDF9 and will install one 0.5 MW bush-to-electricity power
generating plant and supply electricity directly to the national grid. Fuel for the power plant will come from harvested invader
bushes, focusing on bush thinning rather than total clearing and using wood gasification technology.
8) Drought Risk Management Centre; A regional Drought Management Strategy was prepared in 1999 but was not properly
implemented until 2009; a Regional Drought Management Centre for Sub-Saharan Africa.
9) Participatory Poverty Assessment (2004-2006)
10) Basin Management Committees 2001-; The Basin Management are in the National Water Policy White Paper (2000) and
Water Resources Management Bill (2004, under revision in 2009). The basic questions are; cost of water, availability of water,
water demand management, and sharing and allocation of water.
11) Strategic Environmental Assessments
12) Inter-Regional Project; Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa;
Inter-Regional Technical Support Component; The programme is funded by UNDP. Its goals are to enhance the adaptive
capacity of vulnerable countries, promoting early adaptation action and laying the foundation for long-term investment to
increase resilience to climate change across the African continent (21 countries). The overall objective is to adjust national
development processes to incorporate climate change risk/opportunities.
13) Second National Communication of the UNFCCC is underway,
14) Investment and Financial Flows Assessment for capacity development for Namibians on the building blocks of the Bali
Action plan, and to raise stake holder awareness about issues of climate change
15) Building the Foundation for a National Approach to Climate Change Adaptation in Namibia. Funded by Japan.
16) Community-based adaptation under the Small Grants Programme,
17) Namibia Renewable Energy Programme
18) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Activities (Kaura 2009.)
19
3. Bangladesh
3.1 Introduction
Bangladesh, a small country of 150 million population, is dominated by smallholder subsistence farmers
where agricultural growth is seen as the key to rural development. Agriculture is an important sector in
the Bangladeshi economy. It accounts for as much as 21.77% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and
52% of overall employment. It continues to show strong performance particularly in the food grain subsector. The dominant food crop of Bangladesh is rice, accounting for 94 per cent of the cereals consumed,
and supplies 68 per cent of the protein in the national diet, and accounts for approximately 78 per cent of
the value of agricultural output. It is grown by almost all of the 13 million farm families in the country.
(Ahmed and Haggblade, 2000; Bangladesh Bank, 2001; Hossain, 2002). Rice occupies 94% of the total
crops produced, 76.62% of the cropped area Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS 2006). Wide spread
use of high yield varieties of seed following successful research effort by Bangladesh Rice Research
Institute (BRRI) and application of fertilizer following policy change by the government to ease the
imports of this item have increased crop yields in nineties. Some researchers contend that with abundant
water resources and low crop yields, Bangladesh has a relatively greater potential for expanding food
production by maintaining the momentum of the green revolution than many other developing countries.
(Brown and Kane, 1994).
Agricultural growth involves intensive cultivation with improved technology (Turner and Doolittle,
1978). It helps to ensure total farm production of land and thereby increase food security and economic
development of the farmers as well. Sustained agricultural growth leads to bringing change in social
changes in terms of bio-physical environment (land use/land cover), economic infrastructure (cropping
intensity, land, labour, technological productivity, farm income), and uplifting social conditions (literacy,
housing transportation). Thus rural system changes emblem farmers’ production and social behaviour
(Ruttan, 1984). Over the last years, Bangladesh population has doubled; its food production increased;
and rural activities have been changed significantly. Rural development is synonymous to the
development of smallholders’ wellbeing. So, agricultural growth and social economic change should be
integrated in terms of demographic, market, environmental, institutional and technological factors that
configure them. For Bangladesh food security is synonymous with achieving self-sufficiency in rice
production and stabilization of rice prices. Since the inception of Green Revolution Bangladesh made
significant improvement in food production through technological progress. But domestic food
production remains susceptible to floods and droughts thereby posing credible threat to ensure food
security.
3. 2 Intensive Agriculture in Bangladesh
Bangladesh succeeded to make significant progress towards achieving sufficiency in food grains through
the agricultural intensification , use of modern rice varieties, increasing proportion of land double-or
triple-cropped and use of chemical fertilizer since 1980s. Given the scarcity of land and mountaining
pressure of population growth, there is no alternative but to intensifying agricultural production in
Bangladesh. However, there is increasing concern now that intensive agricultural may not be sustainable
and that it may be damaging to the environment and other productive sectors for example, fisheries sector
that contributes about 3.5% GDP of the country(MOEF, 2005)..
20
3.2.1 Sustainability of Intensive Agriculture: The overall increase of average yields and rising production
disguise the decline productivity. Farmers often claim that yields have decline and more fertilizers
should be injected. Districts level production imply that despite increase of inputs, yields have declining
or remaining stagnant on about two-third areas planted to modern varieties in boro season in the last
decade and stagnant throughout the aman season (Pagiola, 1995). Yield declining is also correlated the
length of duration of intensive cultivation and the results of long terms analysis of Bangladesh Rice
Research Institute (BRRI) also supports this evidence(Pagiola, 1995).
3.2.2 Causes and Consequences of declining productivity: A number of factors are responsible for
decline productivity is the nutrient imbalances. Modern varieties demand far more soil nutrients than the
traditional varieties and the problem is compounded by the multiple cropping. Changing in soil physical
and chemical properties is also responsible for decline productivity. There has been some evidence of
build-up of insecticides and diseases, but this factor is not so crucial in explaining the declining of the
productivity. The major factor behind the present and potential yield of Boro (modern variety) is
excessive irrigation. On average Bangladeshi farmers use water 50% more than is needed for boro
cultivation. Such excessive use of water allows fertilizer to go so deep in the social that paddy plants
cannot collect nutrient from there and thereby reducing the yields (BADC, 2008).
3.3 Domestic Production of food and food security situation in Bangladesh
Food security is defined as “access by all people at all times to enough food needed for an active and
healthy life. Its essential are the availability of food and ability to acquire it” (Reutlinger, 1985). At the
national level food security means the availability of sufficient stocks of food to meet domestic demand
until such time as stocks can be replenished from harvests or imports. At the individual level, it means
that all members of the society have access to the food they need, either from their own production, from
market and/or from government transfer mechanism. Experiences show that when the national level food
security is achieved, individuals and groups in the country can still starve and remain hungry for lacking
purchasing power to access food. For Bangladesh, food security is synonymous with achieving selfsufficiency in rice production and stabilization in rice prices (Dorosh et al., 2004). Indeed, Bangladesh
passed a major milestone in its efforts to achieve food security at the end of the 1990s and food grain
production exceeded target requirements (based on 454 gm/person/day). Yet food security has not been
achieved, and what ever progress have been made is difficult to sustain in view of alarming population
pressure coupled with scarcity of natural resources. In a subsistence-oriented agrarian economy such as
Bangladesh, domestic food production plays the most vital role. Major items include rice, wheat, pulses,
potato, vegetables, and fish. Total production of food grains, as per official statistics, increased form
19.32 million tons in 1991-92 to 29.78 million tons in 2007-08 (BBS, 2008). The main contributor has
been irrigated Boro rice production that showed about 6.3% between the same periods. Boro rice
accounts for about 60% of the total food grain production, Aman rice declined overtime and it accounted
30% in the year 2007-08. Boro production in 2007-08 increased by 18.87% over the previous year and it
largely contributed to the rise in total food grain production by 6.13%. Wheat production in 2007-08 also
increased by 14.5% over 2006-07, indicating a reversal to the decreasing trend of the past year. The
significant jump in 2008 in Boro production was due to favourable weather conditions, timely planting,
better care of input applications by the farmers, vigilance of the Agricultural Extension officials, diesel
and electricity supply, and constant monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture (Mondal, 2008).
21
National Food Policy (NAP) of Bangladesh as declared in 2006 aims at three objectives to ensure food
security: (i) adequate and stable supply of safe and notorious food; (ii) accessibility of food through
enhancing people’s purchasing power, and (iii) adequate nutrition for all, especially women and children
(MoFDM, 2006).
3.4 Climate Change and Food Security
Sustainable agricultural development in Bangladesh is challenged by the decline land and water resources,
high input and energy costs, soaring food prices, slow technology generation and adaptation. Climate
change come an additional and huge burden on an already stressed economy. The geological and spatial
location of Bangladesh makes it highly populous and extended coastal lands and islands extremely flat,
dynamic and vulnerable that makes Bangladesh one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.
In general climate change is likely to result in:
(a) Increased flooding associated with sea level rise, greater monsoon precipitation and increased
glacial melt. It is estimated that about 18% of Bangladesh Land will go under water following the
sea level rise at certain level ( World Development Report, 2010). Himalayan glacier as well as
Arctic sea ice and melting ice sheets in Greenland are believed to raise the global sea levels by 1.2
meters by 2100 ( The Daily Star, 2009-09-22).
(b) Increased vulnerability to cyclone and storm surges
(c) Increased moisture stress during dry periods leading to increased drought
(d) Increased salinity intrusion
(e) Greater temperature extremes.
According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction, global temperatures will
rise between 1.80 C and 4.00 by the last decade of the 21st century. According to Bangladesh Climate
Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), rainfall will increase resulting in higher flows during the
monsoon season in the rivers which will flow into Bangladesh from India, Nepal, Bhutan and China.
Global warming will result in mean sea level rises between 0.18 and 0.79 meters, which could increase
coastal flooding and saline intrusion. Bangladesh is ranked most vulnerable country to tropical cyclones
and sixth vulnerable country to floods (MoEF, 2008). The BCCSAP report says that there will be
increasingly frequent and severe floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges, and droughts which will displace
millions of people from coastal regions and making them ‘environmental refugees’.
3. 5 Negative Consequences of Climate Change on Agriculture in Bangladesh:
The impacts of climate change on Bangladesh have profound effect on her development. Different sectors
will be affected in different ways due to climate change but the effects are more pronounced in
agriculture that shapes the backbone of the country’s fragile economy. The expected negative outcomes
as reported in different documents and publications are summarized below:
(i)
(ii)
extended flooding narrowing the scope for crop production , especially in the vast low land
areas;
increased temperature will lead to increased evaporation and droughts, causing water scarcity
for irrigation and domestic uses in north-west Bangladesh;
22
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
(vii)
increased inundation and salinity intrusion, limiting crop cultivation with the existing varieties,
especially in coastal regions
Loss in terms of land degradation and arsenic contamination of soil and water (Heikens,;
Ahmed, 2007)
Increased intensity of flush floods in Meghna (a big river) basin damaging standing Boro rice
crop;
Increased loss of land to river erosion, reducing land-based livelihood opportunities and
thereby curtailing employment opportunities;
Increased drainage congestion and water logging due to sedimentation of rivers, reducing the
production options for the char (land raised from sediments in the river beds) dwellers.
In quantitative terms IPCC estimates that, by 2050, these negative consequences of climate change could
decline rice production in Bangladesh by 8% and wheat by 32%, against 1990 as the base year (MoFE,
2008). At the country level, different crop models based on different assumptions ( i.e., temperature and
CO2) indicate that output of rice in all seasons in 2050, compared to base year 1990 will decline
alarmingly (Karim, et al., 1996). Recent estimates indicate that by 2050 the production of Aus will
decline by 1.5-25.8% and 0.4-5.3% for Aman rice due to high temperature. For Boro rice, production
could be increased by 1.2-9.5% assuming that the temperature would not exceed the 350 threshold limit
for rice production (Hossain, 2008). Other impacts of climate change like extreme temperature, drought,
and salinity intrusion are acting as negative catalyst in reducing crop yields. For instance a 40C increase
in temperature would reduce the production of rice by 28% and wheat by 68 %( Rahman and Alam,
2003). Erratic temperature and shift of rainfall have already affected the production of crops in many
parts of the country and the area of arable land has already decreased. The shortening of winter is
reducing the winter crops especially potatoes. The salinity intrusion is also seriously pronounced in the
coastal area of Bangladesh where rice is grown. Under moderate climate scenario, the intrusion of salinity
would reduce the yield by 0.2 million ton and in severe salinity intrusion the reduction may be as high
0.56 million ((Rahman and Alam, 2003). Fisheries sector contributing about 3.5% of the GDP in
Bangladesh will be equally affected the climate change that make the majority of the daily protein dietary
requirements. There are 260 species of fish in Bangladesh and all of them are sensitive to particular salt
and freshwater condition (MOEF, 2005). The changes in tidal pattern, increasing salinity intrusion
coupled with climate change will make these species vulnerable and thus jeopardize the dietary source of
the people in the country. The implication of climate change on agriculture and fisheries is significant
both for livelihood implication and as well as the threat of food security. It is estimated that to become
self-sufficient in food, Bangladesh requires additional food grain production of 14.64 million tonnes by
the year 2030 (Reid and Sims, 2007) and a total food grain requirement will stand as 42.8 million ton by
the year 2030 (Rahman and Alam, 2003). About 80% of the animal protein comes from fish and this
source will be severely threatened for climate change. Increased vulnerability of crop production poses a
big question mark in achieving food security in near future.
3.6 Climate Change Impacts on Development
Climate change is one the greatest threats to mankind. Climate change is a complex, multifaceted,
multidimensional, long-term, slow onset phenomenon with enormous impacts that touches every
branches of human society including most of its production-consumption processes (UNDP, 2008). For
example, food security, water security, and emery security are likely ingredients of development. These
securities coupled with health and social securities go hand in hand in the development of individuals and
communities. The threat of climate change is likely to stand in the way of achieving these securities in
23
many affected and vulnerable societies. A simplistic representation of the links between climate and
development is depicted in figure 01. Table 01. represent the simple and complex extremes with
representative examples of projected impacts.
Fig 01: Kink between climate change and development.
Sustianable
Development
Sustainable
Development
*Alternative Development
Patways
*Sectoral
Environmental/economic
policies
*Institutional Change
*Technological change
Climate
Change
*Avoided climate change
damage
*Ancillary benefits/costs
*Direct national/sectoral
cost
*Innovation/technical
change
Climate
Change
Policy
Source: Swart et al., 2003.
Table 1.0: Examples of impacts from projected changes in extreme climate events
Projected
Change
in
extreme Representative examples of projected
st
Phenomena during the 21 Century
impacts
Simple Extremes
Increased incidence of death and
serious illness.
Higher maximum temperatures, more hot
Increased heat stress in livestock
days, and heat waves over nearly all land
and wildlife
areas
Increased risk of damage to several
crops
Higher
(increasing)
minimum
Decreased cold-related human
temperatures: fewer cold days, frost days
morbidity and mortality
and cold waves over nearly all land areas
Decreased risk of damage to several
crops
Extended range and activity of
some disease vectors
More intense precipitation events
Increased flood, landslide
Increased soil erosion
Increased flood runoff
Complex Extreme
Increased summer drying over mid-latitude
Decreased crop yields
24
continental interiors and associated risk of
drought
Increased tropical cyclone peak wind
intensities, mean and peak precipitation
intensities
Decreased water resource
Increased risk of forest fire
Increased risk to human life, risk of
infectious disease epidemics
Increased coastal erosion
Increased damage to coastal
ecosystem and coral reefs
Decreased agriculture and rangeland productivity in drought-prone
and flood-prone regions
Increased flood and drought
magnitude
and
damages
in
temperature and tropical Asia
Intensified droughts and floods associated
with EI Nino events in many different
regions
Increased Asian Summer monsoon
precipitation variability.
Source: International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Third Assessment Report, 2001.
3.7 Incidences of Natural disasters in Bangladesh
Natural disaster is a regular phenomenon in Bangladesh claiming huge tolls of human lives and properties.
Key natural disasters include: river and flash flood, tropical cyclones, tornados, and draughts to her
unique geographical location. According to the report of Environment ministry in Bangladesh, between
1991-2000, 93 major disasters occurred in Bangladesh causing of 200,000 deaths and damage of USD 5.9
billion, with high losses in agriculture and infrastructure. It is observed that in last three decades the
frequency of natural disasters increased in Bangladesh. Since 1954, 48 small, medium and big floods
have struck Bangladesh and seven of the severe floods inundated more than 30% area. Flood with land
inundated 37% occurred 5 times in last 30 years and 3 times in last 10 years. Similarly flood inundating
60% of the land area occurs once in 50 years. So, it is evident that the intensity and frequency of flood
has increased in last 30 years.
During the last 50 years, 50 droughts take place in Bangladesh. The drought prone north-western zone of
Bangladesh suffered a shortfall of rice production by 3.5 million in recent decades in the 1990s. Current
severe drought can affect yield in 30% of the country, reducing national producing by 10%. 2030
temperature increase of 0.5 degree Celsius and annual rain reduction of 5% could runoff into Ganges,
Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers by 14%, 11%, and 8%. With 12% reduction in runoff, the population
living in severe drought-prone areas increases from 4% to 9% under climate change (Ministry of
Environment, Bangladesh and UNEP, 2008). The frequency of hazards is presented in the following
tables:
Decades
80s
90s
00s
01s
Total
Flood
1
3
9
6
19
Cyclone
7
4
7
1
19
No. of events
Tornado
2
1
6
5
14
Drought
3
3
1
0
7
Source: Ministry of Environment, Bangladesh and UNEP, 2008
25
3. 8 National Policy response to climate change:
There is no specific national policy in Bangladesh that specially addresses climate change risks. However,
the government is aware of the importance of climate change and there are several policy response
options to address climate change issues.
1. Indirectly addressing the climate change issue though programs like: (I) poverty alleviation, (ii)
employment generation, (iii) crop diversification.
2. Directly addressing vulnerability to climate variability. Specific policies to reduce vulnerability to
climate variability and climate change include:
1. Vulnerability reduction: crop diversification, generation of alternative employment opportunities
aimed at community development, agricultural development, agricultural development, credit
facilities, and infrastructure development.
2. Disaster Management and Climate Risk Management:
3. Mainstreaming climate change into development and national planning.
National Efforts to Address climate change in Bangladesh
“Addressing climate change in Bangladesh: National Efforts”.
' Recognition of adverse impacts of climate change on economic development, life
and livelihoods of the poor and ultimately impeding millennium development goals has pushes
urgent need for adaptation to deal with unavoidable impacts of climate stimuli including variability
and extreme events in Bangladesh. The Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government of
Bangladesh has prepared Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008 as living
document and has allocated about USD43 million. The development partners in Bangladesh and the
Government of Bangladesh has also agreed to set up a Multi donors Trust Fun do deal with Climate
Change adaptation and mitigation. In achieving the objectives, some development projects aimed at
mitigating the negative consequences of environmental change are going on.
3.9 Strategies for food security and climate change Adaptation
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
(h)
(i)
Technology generation
Protection of Agricultural land
Upholding soil health
Sustaining irrigation water market
More efforts for constraint areas
Ensuring food security for all
Upholding food nutrition
Management of coastal zone
Agricultural engineering for food security.
26
3.10 Case Study: Increasing the Resilience of Communities to Cope with Climate Change Impact,
Flood and River Bank Erosion
The project entitled as the 'Resilience of communities to cope with the climate change' aims at piloting a
community based approach to enable people to develop strategies for addressing the threats of climate
change.
In Gaibandha, one districts out the 64 districts in Bangladesh, thousands of people live with constant
threats of homelessness, damage to and loss of their possessions and means of livelihoods and risks of
insure and death due to weather and natural disasters steaming from flooding, river bank erosion, storm,
cyclone, cold wave and desertification. The above project targets to increase the resilience of 10,000 men,
women, and children from vulnerable communities to cope with and adapt to the impacts of climate
induced hazards. This will bring together also poverty reduction. environmental and natural resources
management, disaster risk management and climate change. The metrological data of the area over 30
years gives an indication that winter is becoming warmer than 30 years ago. Major environmental
problems of the area are: frequent flood, river bank erosion, drought, storm/cyclone and cold wave.
Local Knowledge on climate change: (i) knowledge on climate is not clear, (ii) they understand that for
some reasons flood occurs frequently, excess rainfall during rainy season, draught in dry season, and cold
wave in winter season. (iii) local educated people sometimes can predict disaster well in advance by
monitoring some symptoms and elderly people use some local knowledge to predict climate condition.
With some exceptions, in most of the cases they get accurate results from the symptoms.
Institutional Knowledge on Climate Change: (i) Respondents are aware about global warming, (ii)
Climate change has the livelihood of affected people (from farmers and fishermen to day labourer, small
trader and rickshaw puller), (iii) Agriculture Department is thinking to cultivate new variety of rice crops
which are flood tolerant, (iv) All respondents believe that due to climate change, frequent flood, storm,
cyclone are occurring in this region.
Community led solutions: Construction of houses on raised plinths to reduce risk of flooding,
construction of floating vegetable gardens to provide food during flood periods, mass awareness through
arranged cultural programs, arrange training for Community Volunteers.
Policy influence and Linkage: focus on the most vulnerable areas of and population, greater awareness
of climate change issues for policy makers and general people, involvement of vulnerable groups and
wide range of stakeholders in adaptation planning, appropriate information on climate change shared with
different people, focus on strengthening and diversifying livelihoods to help people cope, as well as
infrastructure based projects to strengthen physical structure, for example, flood proof housing, increasing
the resilience of poor communities to cope with climate change.
Reducing the risk of climatic disaster: Communities can be empowered to help themselves by undertaking
the following initiatives: (i) trained volunteers to organize evacuation to places of safety during flood or
land slides, (ii) Ready prepared emergency food and fodder packs, (iii) emergency community shelters
and grain stores, (iv) preparedness for climate-induced hazards reduces the likelihood of them resulting in
disasters.
27
3. 11 Conclusions
Climate change is one of the biggest threats to the mankind of Bangladesh. So, emphasis needs to be
given on the potential impacts of climate change and adapting the strategies to mitigate the negative
consequences of climate change. For developing awareness building for the literate and non-literate mass
population of the country, distributing leaflets, posters and the proactive roles of both print and electronic
media is highly solicited. Educational materials for students may be developed in their curriculum so that
they can teach about the climate and its impacts to the mass population. Local risk assessment about
floods, cyclones, salt intrusion, droughts, temperature rise etc. may be initiated based on local knowledge
and predictions. NGOs have been very successful in reaching the rural household. NGO-Government
collaboration in climate risk management may be initiated to develop expertise for climate risk reduction.
Proper research capabilities to forecast climate variability may be ensured. Adaptive capacities for the
vulnerable sectors of climate like agriculture, forestry, fisheries should be developed with the active
assistance of the government. Specially crop insurance for climate change may contribute to ensure food
security in the country.
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29
Summary
The research on climate change effect on productivity and rural development is scarce. The high
uncertainty of climate change effects and the implications on agriculture is based on extrapolations and
scenarios. Existing knowledge on local environmental issues and agriculture is simply insufficient and
local agricultural data is mostly not existing.
In general there is a positive trend in agricultural productivity in the countries Namibia, Zambia, Kenya
and Bangladesh. The increase in productivity is due to a bit different reasons in the different countries. In
Namibia the governmental Green Scheme that started in 2003, has led to increased production in
agriculture and horticulture in particular. The Green Scheme target is to triple the utilization of irrigation,
and increase labour opportunities. The increased employment in agriculture is calculated to be 10 000 full
time employment and 35 000 season workers. The green scheme is a governmental and on donor based
scheme, and increases the utilization of national resources as well as improves farming skills. In the last
two years, Namibia has been hit by heavy rainfalls causing severe flooding. However, even without
climate change Namibia is expected to face absolute water shortage by the year 2020 (less than 1000 m3
per capita and year) (NPC 2002, p. 37).
In Zambia there is a general increase in yields in agriculture and especially in the western parts of the
country where government has supported production through irrigation. The importance of agriculture
has increased during the 1990s, particular because of the decline in the mining industry. Some
improvements in the mining sector has taken place during the last ten years. In Kenya there has been a
declining trend in agricultural productivity. At the same time there has been a increase in population. In
both countries there is a need for more research on food security issues and on climate effects on the
agriculture production and also on the agricultural effect on climate. Especially in arid and semi-arid
areas agriculture has an impact on the environment and also on the local microclimate. Even a small
change in climate can have drastic effects on rural livelihood.
In Bangladesh there has been a successful introduction to new rice varieties and the increase in Boro rice
production has led to an overall increase in agriculture productivity. At the same time there has been a
negative trend in Jute production especially due to low prices on Jute. Early warning systems has been
developed and it has been successful in decreasing human injuries in for example the 2008 cyclone Sidor.
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute has also been successful in introducing flood prone rice varieties.
In all these countries there is a concern about the eventual changes in rainfalls. Higher variation in
rainfalls affect both agriculture and the overall rural livelihood. Several steps have been taken to adapt to
these changes, especially increases in storage capacities and improvement in water regulations has been
taken but much need still to be done in the water and agricultural sector.
30
Discussion Papers:
No.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
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Economics
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Agricultural Economics.
Seppo Vehkamäki & Stefan Bäckman (2006).Evaluation
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