Download Integrating Climate Change into Invasive Species Risk Assessment

Integrating Climate
Change into Invasive
Species Risk Assessment/
Risk Management
Workshop Report
November 2008
PRI Project
Sustainable Development
Integrating Climate Change into Invasive Species Risk
Assessment/Risk Management
Workshop Report
November 2008
PRI Project
Sustainable Development
This publication is available electronically on the PRI web site at the following address:
<www.policyresearch.gc.ca>
Print copies of this publication are available upon request. Please contact:
Policy Research Initiative
56 Sparks Street, First Floor
Ottawa, ON K1P 5A9
Tel: 613-947-1956
Fax: 613-995-6006
E-mail: <[email protected]>
For permission to reproduce the information in this publication, please e-mail:
<[email protected]>
PH4-47/2008E-PDF
ISBN 978-1-100-10619-9
Table of Contents
1. Introduction ..........................................................................................................1
2. Background...........................................................................................................2
3. Climate Change in Canada – An Overview .......................................................3
Historical Climate Change ....................................................................................................... 3
Projected Climate Change ....................................................................................................... 4
4. Invasive Species and Climate Change...............................................................5
Invasive Alien Species in Canada............................................................................................ 5
Climate Change Considerations for Invasive Species.......................................................... 6
5. Climate Change and Invasive Species Risk Assessment/Risk Management
..................................................................................................................................10
When to Consider Climate Change....................................................................................... 10
Approaches and Considerations ........................................................................................... 11
Managing Risk ......................................................................................................................... 13
Challenges and Barriers ......................................................................................................... 14
6. Conclusions and Next Steps.............................................................................16
Notes........................................................................................................................17
References ..............................................................................................................18
Appendix 1 – Workshop Agenda..........................................................................20
Appendix 2 – Participant List ...............................................................................22
1. Introduction
The Policy Research Initiative (PRI) held a one-day workshop, Integrating Climate
Change into Invasive Species Risk Assessment, on March 11, 2008. The goal was to
examine how climate change considerations factor into work on invasive species within
the federal government, particularly in terms of risk assessment and risk management.
Organized in partnership with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA),
representatives from several federal departments and agencies with regulatory functions
attended the workshop. The CFIA conducts risk assessments for invasive alien species in
the context of animal and plant health and is broadly recognized for its risk assessment
approach. The Agency, however, has yet to incorporate climate change into its work. The
integration of climate change into invasive species risk assessment does not appear to be
commonplace in most federal processes.
The workshop was designed as a learning event to increase awareness of climate change
impacts with respect to invasive species. It gave participants the opportunity to
contemplate the value of including climate change into invasive species risk assessment
and discuss the issues and challenges that may arise in doing so. The workshop consisted
of awareness-building presentations and a case study exercise that allowed for
interaction and learning among the participants. The presentations and case study
exercise facilitated discussion on the different approaches to assessing and managing
invasive species risk within government. Participants also became more aware of the
different perspectives from which this issue is viewed, specifically the science and policy
perspectives. Participants expressed an interest in continuing an invasive species risk
assessment dialogue among departments and between the risk assessment, climate, and
policy communities.
This report summarizes the material presented at the event and synthesizes the
discussions and outcomes. The report starts by providing the background leading up to
the workshop followed by an overview of climate change in Canada. The next section
presents the state of invasive alien species in Canada and the climate change
considerations for invasive species in general. This is followed by a closer look at the
integration of climate change into invasive species risk assessment and management
including when it may be necessary to consider climate change, different approaches,
considerations for assessing and managing risk, and the challenges and barriers which
may occur when putting such approaches into practice. Concluding remarks follow.
The March 11 workshop was the first event in a proposed series of theme-based
workshops to be organized by the PRI. The workshops will focus on the integration or
“mainstreaming”1 of climate change considerations into management practices within the
operations of federal government departments; risk assessment and management in
departments with regulatory functions represent the first theme to be explored in this
context. These workshops are part of a broader research project on climate change
adaptation with respect to the federal government’s internal operations and are based on
the premise that a risk assessment process that incorporates climate change will inform
policy makers and allow them to integrate adaptation into departmental planning
processes.
1
2. Background
The impacts associated with a changing climate (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfires)
combined with other known stressors (e.g., land use, pollution) challenge the ability of
natural systems to adapt. Both terrestrial and marine systems are vulnerable to increased
CO2 and higher temperatures, and are likely to face substantial changes to ecosystem
structure and functioning with global warming of two to three degrees above preindustrial levels.
Ecological threats that are likely to be exacerbated by climate change include invasive
alien species (IAS), that is, species that do not naturally occur in a specific area and
whose introduction does or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm or harm
to human health or well-being. Such species are problematic, because of their ability to
succeed in new surroundings, becoming predators, competitors, parasites, hybridizers,
and diseases of native and domesticated plants and animals. These traits likely favour
invasive alien species in a changing climate.
Climate change is likely to increase opportunities for invasive alien
species because of their adaptability to disturbance.2
In 2004, the Government of Canada introduced the National Invasive Alien Species
Strategy, which outlines approaches and priorities in terms of IAS prevention, early
detection, rapid response, and management. The probability of climate change
intensifying the threat of IAS is not addressed. As the strategy comes up for review in
2009, the integration of climate change impacts and adaptation could be considered.
In addition to the climate-related risks that may be associated with IAS, some indigenous
pests that are native to Canada could pose increasing risk in a changing climate due to a
shift in their geographical range. The workshop and this report consider invasive species,
both alien and native, as many of the climate-related considerations apply to both,
although the risk assessment and risk management approaches may differ.
2
3. Climate Change in Canada – An Overview
To understand the implications of climate change for invasive species, it is important to
have a general awareness of how the climate is changing in Canada. In 2008, the
Government of Canada released its most recent assessment report “From Impacts to
Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007,” which outlines the current
understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada. The following
discussion presents a very general overview of this complicated subject.3
Historical Climate Change
There is general consensus that the unequivocal warming of global temperatures over the
last century likely results from human activities. From 1906 to 2005, the global
temperature increased by 0.74oC. Over this period, the temperature in Canada increased
1.3 oC on average – more than any other country in the world. Regionally, the
temperature changes have varied within Canada, with the northwest experiencing the
most pronounced increases (Figure 1).
Figure 1 - Temperature Changes in Canada (1950 - 2004): “x” indicates where the trends
are statistically significant.
spring
winter
°C
summer
fall
3
Changes in precipitation have also been observed. In general, wet areas are getting
wetter and dry areas are getting drier, and the probabilities of both heavy rainfall and
drought have increased. On an annual basis, most of Canada now receives much higher
levels of precipitation and experiences an increase in the number of precipitation days.
The high north experienced a 45 percent increase in rainfall from 1948-2003 due to
warmer temperatures. Conversely, parts of the prairies are getting drier due to less
rainfall and increased evapo-transpiration. Snowfall, however, is decreasing, particularly
in British Columbia, which has an adverse impact on water availability in the spring.
Another parameter that is changing is sea level. Over the past century, global sea levels
increased by a mean of 17 cm leading to increased flooding and coastal erosion. In
Canada, Prince Edward Island experienced an approximate rise of 30 cm whereas the
west coast experienced a 7 cm rise in sea level.
The changing climate has had several impacts on natural systems; most notably, spring
events including leaf unfolding, bird migration and egg laying occur earlier in the year –
up to a month earlier in Alberta. Plant and animal ranges are experiencing northern and
latitudinal shifts on land. In the oceans, species of fish, algae and plankton are shifting in
range and abundance, and fish are migrating into rivers earlier in the year. Other impacts
of a changing climate are evident throughout Canada ranging from permafrost
degradation and reduced ice cover in the north to reduced lake and river levels in the
south.
As the climate continues to change, scientists are attempting to predict what will happen.
Projected Climate Change
Environment Canada uses seven global climate models to inform its projections. Each
model is based on a different emission scenario and therefore yields different outputs.
Scenarios are based on regionalized measures of population, economic development,
energy efficiency, the availability of various forms of energy, agricultural productivity,
and local pollution controls.
Based on the global climate projections, temperatures will continue to rise in the future
with best estimates suggesting a 1.8 to 4.0 oC increase over the next century with the
highest increases occurring under a “business-as-usual” scenario in which no new actions
are taken to reduce emissions. Changes in parts of Canada will continue to be more
pronounced than the rest of the world continuing trends that have already been observed
including relatively sharp temperature increases in the north, particularly in the fall and
winter months.
Although temperature projections have a higher confidence than precipitation
projections, longer periods without rain are predicted for most of Canada with an
increase in higher precipitation events. In the 2050s, an increase in winter and fall
precipitation is forecast with regional increases in the north and decreases in the south.
Sea levels are also expected to rise with the best estimates projecting a 28 to 43 cm rise
by the end of this century.
4
The resulting impacts will vary regionally across the country but are likely to include
severe storms, drought, forest fires, glacier retreat, changes in lake and river levels,
permafrost degradation, and fishery impacts.
4. Invasive Species and Climate Change
Invasive Alien Species in Canada
Over 1,500 documented IAS currently exist in Canada; most are terrestrial plants. In
management terms, plants (terrestrial and aquatic), freshwater fish, micro-organisms,
fungi, and invertebrates (terrestrial and aquatic) pose a particular challenge as they are
difficult to track and will generally reproduce quickly compared to mammals, birds,
amphibians, and reptiles. Invasive alien species have been entering Canada since North
America was first settled, with a sharp rise from 1800 to 1900 as a result of increased
trade, colonization, immigration, and an increased interest in botany. Heightened
awareness and regulatory controls slowed the rate of introductions in the 1900s.
The large majority of IAS within Canada originate from Europe and North Africa
followed by Asia. They thrive in landscapes that are similar to their native systems. In
addition to the coastal regions and borders where many IAS are first introduced,
ecozones, like the boreal forest, host a relatively high concentration of IAS as the habitat
is similar to parts of Europe and Asia (Figure 2).
Figure 2 - Numbers of invasive plant species by ecozone, based on the 162 species for
which distribution maps are available (Thormann, 2008).
NA – Northern Arctic
TC – Taiga Cordillera
SA – Southern Arctic
BC – Boreal Cordillera
TP – Taiga Plains
TS – Taiga Shield
HP – Hudson Plains
PM – Pacific Maritime
MC – Montana Cordillera
BP – Boreal Plains
PR – Prairies
BS – Boreal Shield
MP – Mixed Wood Plains
AM – Atlantic Maritime
5
Once established, IAS can have economic, environmental, and social impacts. Managing
IAS can be costly in terms of control and eradication attempts, and can lead to indirect
economic costs associated with the loss or degradation of ecosystem services and
commercially exploited resources. Environmentally, IAS can impact many aspects of
ecosystem diversity, structure, and function as they can disrupt the interactions among
native species through, for example, out-competing. Depending on the type of species
and the location of its outbreak, IAS can have adverse impacts on human health,
traditional lifestyles, tourism, employment, aesthetic values, property values, and the
general enjoyment of natural areas.
In a warming climate, the adverse economic, environmental, and social impacts
associated with invasive species could amplify and spread geographically if the range of
the species in question expanded or shifted.
Impacts of the Zebra Mussel 4
The zebra mussel is an invasive alien species that has been wreaking havoc in the Great
Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway for 20 years. The ability of the mussel to colonize on
a myriad living and non-living surfaces poses many problems. The US Fish and Wildlife
Service estimates the potential economic impact to be in the billions of dollars to US and
Canadian water users within the Great Lakes region alone due to the buildup of mussels
on municipal and industrial water infrastructure. The mussels have also piled up on
beaches and colonized on boats and docks affecting recreational activities in the region.
Of great concern are the devastating impacts to natural wildlife populations; many native
clam species are near extinction, and bird and fish populations have been drastically
altered.
Climate Change Considerations for Invasive Species
Over the past 100 years, the temperature and associated climatic conditions (e.g.,
precipitation) have changed rapidly compared to earlier trends. This rapid change makes
it difficult for many species to adapt; those that can adapt quickly under these conditions
will be successful. In general, IAS are adaptable to rapid changes and disturbance and
are, therefore, able to establish and spread. Consequently, IAS already in Canada are
expanding or shifting their range in response to the changing climate, putting new areas
of the country at risk.
The same can be said for some indigenous species that have become invasive as the
changes in climate have made new areas physically suitable for their expansion. A noted
example is the mountain pine beetle that is native to British Columbia. This forest pest
has expanded beyond its typical range in recent years devastating acres of forest in
British Columbia and Alberta, aided by warmer conditions that have allowed the beetles
to survive through the winter. Another example is the gypsy moth, an alien invasive
species from Eurasia that is predicted to spread further into Canada as the climate
changes.
When considering the implications of climate change for invasive species, it is important
to distinguish between climate and weather. The weather refers to short-term changes in
temperature and precipitation and can change dramatically from hour to hour, day to
6
day, and season to season. The climate for a given area will dictate the range of weather
possibilities and as the climate changes over the long term (i.e., decade to decade), the
range of weather possibilities will gradually shift as well.
7
Gypsy Moth and Climate Change
The gypsy moth is a defoliator from Eurasia first reported in Canada in the 1930s, but it
did not become firmly established until the 1960s. Today, the gypsy moth is established in
southern Ontario, southern Quebec, southwestern New Brunswick, and southwestern
Nova Scotia. There are over 300 known host plants for the gypsy moth. In North America,
the long list of preferred hosts includes oak, cherry, white birch, maple, alder, willow,
elm, and trembling aspen. The Asian race, which is currently threatening British
Columbia, also does well on coniferous trees, such as larch.
The Canadian Forest Service uses an eco-physiological approach to predict the
movement of the gypsy moth in a changing climate. Using predicted changes in climate, a
detailed knowledge of the gypsy moth ecology, its basic thermal responses, and the host
range, the BIOSIM model used by the Canadian Forest Service generates maps that
indicate the probability of establishment based on whether the pest will be able to
complete its life cycle.
The two maps below illustrate results for two time periods. The first map shows the
probability of establishment during the period in which the moth was first introduced
(1931-1960) and the second map shows the probability of establishment for the years
2041-2070. These results clearly indicate how a changing climate could facilitate the
expansion of the gypsy moth further into Ontario and Quebec, well beyond the existing
regulated areas, and render the prairies more vulnerable to gypsy moth invasions. It
should be noted that these results are based on a conservative emission scenario of a one
percent increase in CO2 each year from 1990 to 2100.
This model is a very powerful and informative tool. This insight into the future will allow
scientists, policy analysts, and decision makers to develop and evaluate risk management
options for these vulnerable areas before they become affected.
Figure 3 - Probability of Establishment for Gypsy Moth - Maps from the Canadian
Forest Service BIOSIM model (Presented by Jacques Régnière, March 11, 2008).
Sources: CFIA (2007) and CFS (2007).
8
All ecological interactions are influenced by climate, and the organisms that live in a
given climate do so because of their favourable probability to succeed and complete their
life cycle. That being said, many organisms can be highly sensitive to fluctuations in
weather and weather extremes. Many insects, for example, can be killed by one cold
episode in the winter, which prevents outbreaks in the spring. In this example, weather
extremes influence the population of the insect (either native or alien). The climate,
however, will influence the frequency or probability of such extreme events happening. If
mean temperatures increase gradually over the long term, then the probability of
temperatures getting cold enough for a winter kill could decrease over time.
9
5. Climate Change and Invasive Species Risk Assessment/Risk
Management
When to Consider Climate Change
It may not always be appropriate or necessary to consider climate change when
conducting an invasive species risk assessment. Whether to consider climate change
largely depends on the status of the species in question and whether they will be present
over the long term.
There are three invasive species categories under which different approaches may be
required.
•
Species that are already established (native or alien) in North America: To
assess the risks associated with an established pest, it will be important to think long
term to determine if and how the range of this pest will shift or expand over several
decades based on the current understanding of climate change in the region.
Although confidence in the projections will vary, a general sense of risk over the long
term will give policy and decision makers at all levels an opportunity to explore risk
control options. Risk management is discussed later in this report.
•
Alien species that have been (or could be) accidentally introduced: If a species
is accidentally introduced, the current climate and its respective weather fluctuations
will determine whether the species will survive in the short term. If the habitat in
which this species is introduced is unlike its native habitat, then it is unlikely to
survive the day-to-day and seasonal fluctuations in weather. If this is the case, then
there is no need to consider long-term changes in climate. Should the probability of
establishment be significant, climate change could be considered to forecast the
potential impacts over the long term should initial control and mitigation efforts fail.
With respect to those species that are at risk of being unintentionally introduced (e.g.,
insects in wood packaging), the same criteria would apply. However, the spatial
scope of a risk assessment would consist of locations in which a potential
introduction could occur; these could consist of ports, borders, or other anticipated
hot spots. (See a discussion on identifying hot spots below.)
•
Deliberately introduced alien species: When Canadians decide whether to import
a non-native species for agricultural production or commercial use, many factors are
considered, including the probability of the species becoming invasive. If there is a
chance that the species could become invasive under current climate conditions, then
it is unlikely to be imported, in which case it is not necessary to consider long-term
changes in climate. If the risk of the species becoming invasive under current climate
conditions is low, then it may be necessary to consider whether the risk of invasion
will increase in a changing climate before a decision is made to import the species.
The decision to introduce a species is permanent and thus it is important to take into
account the long-term changes that could affect the species (and the host, if
applicable) to assess if the risks could increase over time.
10
Figure 3 provides a rough guide for when to consider climate change in an invasive
species risk assessment. As a simple rule, climate change should be considered if the
species will be, or could be present (i.e., in the case of a deliberate or accidental
introduction) in the long term. In reality, there will be uncertainties associated with
questions concerning likelihood of survival and the risk of becoming invasive; however,
decisions will be guided by probabilities as with any risk assessment/management
process.
Figure 4 - Guide to the consideration of climate change in invasive species risk
assessment work – inspired by workshop outcomes
Established
Invasive
Species
Accidentally
Introduced
Deliberately
Imported
Consider Climate Change
Yes
Consider Climate Change
No
Not Necessary to
To
Consider Climate Change
Yes
Not Necessary to
To
Consider Climate Change*
No
Consider Climate Change**
Likely to Survive in
Current Conditions?
Risk of Becoming
Invasive in Current
Conditions?
* Assuming an IAS is not imported
** Assuming an IAS is imported
Approaches and Considerations
Climate change is not formally incorporated into most invasive species risk assessment
processes within the federal government. Although it could be considered another
variable in the process, the long-term nature of climate considerations adds a temporal
component that is not typically addressed.
When it is appropriate to consider climate change, a logical way to integrate it into
invasive species risk assessment is to identify and evaluate risk using existing
approaches (i.e., current climate conditions and weather fluctuations) to create a
baseline. These initial steps can then be repeated using projection data for a given time in
the future.
Conducting the risk assessment using two sets of climate data (current and projected)
can provide risk assessors and decision makers with a sense of how the risks associated
with a given invasive species could change over time and perhaps geographically. This
11
information could be very relevant in informing decisions (i.e., whether to allow the
species into Canada) and crafting management options (both mitigation and adaptation).
Obtaining the necessary climate information to incorporate into a risk assessment could
be challenging. When considering climate models for invasive species applications, it is
important to use the finest scale possible to focus on the geographical area of concern.
There are different ways to approach this. The first way is to use regional climate models.
In theory, it would be best to use models that are region-specific; however, regional
climate data are difficult to obtain, and the confidence in the projections is going to be
lower as there will not be multiple models from which to obtain results. With the
exception of some regions for which reliable models have been developed, statistical
downscaling of global circulation models is likely the best approach and perhaps the only
option.5 In terms of selecting a time frame for climate projections, there is no single
answer, but a projection of at least 20 years is needed to make a useful comparison.
Once climate change projections have been identified, models can then be used to
predict how organisms will behave given the changes in temperature and precipitation
using correlative approaches or the eco-physiological approach. The Canadian Forest
Service uses the eco-physiological approach to model the spread of forest pests. This
shows the probability of the organism completing its life cycle within the climactic
boundaries given the range of the host species. This approach requires knowledge of the
basic thermal responses (e.g., overwintering mortality) of a particular species and
knowledge of its ecology including natural enemies and competitors.
The eco-physiological approach can be tailored to a specific species creating a very
powerful tool for predicting the movement of an existing or potential pest over time. This
is an ideal tool for known pests (e.g., mountain pine beetle and gypsy moth), but will
have limitations when applied to new and relatively unknown species as there is unlikely
to be sufficient knowledge of the key ecological parameters.
When considering which regions in Canada could be most at risk for invasive species
introductions and outbreaks, in general or for a specific species, regional climate
projections can be merged with various geographic information system (GIS) layers to
determine potential hot spots for a given period. This could be an effective way to
incorporate the socio-economic drivers with the physical conditions of the environment
that may support the spread of a given species. Transportation corridors, ports of entry,
urban development, agricultural expansion, natural resource development, and areas of
enhanced – and growing – recreation and tourism are all examples of GIS layers that
could influence the probability of invasive species introductions (in the case of IAS) and
movement. By merging this information with current knowledge of the natural
environment (including climate), we can identity hot spots or suitable habitats for
invasive species and the potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Merging
opportunities may also exist for regional planning and other landscape management
models. Once such hot spots are identified, an appropriate policy response may be to
develop monitoring programs for those areas most likely to be affected by invasive
species under a changing climate.
12
Managing Risk
Following an invasive species risk assessment, options are formulated to reduce risk and
control any adverse impacts that could occur. In the event of an IAS or native pest
outbreak, or threat of an outbreak, a series of control or eradication options are often
evaluated. These mitigation efforts are typically implemented at the problem site and are
intended to address immediate or short-term concerns. Once a species is established, a
different set of management options are needed and could consist of both mitigation and
adaptation responses.
In the context of a changing climate, adaptation is seen as a necessary complement to
mitigation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptation as
the “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.”6
Adaptation, as a risk management approach, may become increasingly important in
responding to invasive species. As the range of an invasive species and its associated
impacts expands or shifts in response to climate change, planned adaptation strategies
could be considered for those areas currently affected or likely to be affected to
minimize the adverse effects and perhaps even exploit benefits and opportunities over
the long term.
Adaptation strategies for invasive species could take many forms depending on the type
of species and the natural and socio-economic characteristics of its current and
predicted range. Possible examples include the altering of forest management practices
in threatened areas to reduce vulnerability to forest pests and redesigning public parks
and green spaces to reduce exposure to disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes).
Any decision involving uncertainty and long-term considerations necessitates a reexamination of supporting science and the evidence as it becomes available to ensure
that existing management frameworks continue to be appropriate. It is also important to
build flexibility into policies and programs to allow for minor, or even fundamental,
changes to our management approaches. Adaptive management is an iterative process of
decision making that is suitable for issues such as climate change and its effects,
including invasive species.
We will never have certainty with respect to climate change, but there is enough
confidence in the general trends to foster the development of adaptive management
strategies. Continuous improvements to our understanding of climate change and our
models can provide new insight. Adaptive management will allow for new knowledge to
be integrated into related policies and programs including mitigation and adaptation
strategies.
Monitoring is a key component of many adaptive management approaches. The
monitoring of existing invasive species populations and potential entryways is occurring
in Canada. Monitoring of potential IAS hot spots may also be appropriate; potential hot
spots can be inferred from the merging of GIS layers and climate data. To ensure that
adaptive management is supported, monitoring results will need to be formally integrated
into the policy process to determine when and if revisions are required.
13
Challenges and Barriers
Integrating climate change into federal risk assessment and management frameworks
may face challenges. As with many of the factors considered in a risk assessment,
climate change has a significant element of uncertainty. This can be challenging to
address and is particularly true when conducting an analysis that is region and species
specific. Although models are always being modified and updated, it is difficult to know
if the accuracy of climate change projections is going to improve. Nevertheless, the
climate is changing and is likely to have continuous implications for invasive species. It
will therefore be important to consider the changing climatic conditions to the best of
our abilities when assessing long-term risks. As previously discussed, management
strategies consistent with an adaptive management approach will allow for new insights
to be incorporated iteratively and policies and practices to be revised as necessary.
With many scientific and technical exercises, data availability is likely to be a challenge.
It has already been noted that climate data are more readily available at the global scale
than at the regional scale. Further, taking an eco-physiological approach to projecting
climate-related impacts on the spread of a given species requires biological knowledge of
the species and its thermal responses as well as the host species, which may limit the use
of this tool to well-known organisms until more data become available.
Climate-related and biological uncertainties relating to climactic and ecological
interactions of a species can inform the prioritization of research needs; research could
focus on those parameters and issues for which we have little data, confidence, and
understanding.
From an organizational perspective, issues concerning capacity could also pose many
challenges. Conducting the proper analysis related to climate change requires additional
time and strains existing resources. Further, there is the issue of expertise and access to
climate data. Some federal departments have internal climate change expertise; others do
not. To ensure that climate change is properly integrated into the risk assessment
process (e.g., modelling, analysis, etc.) expertise may need to be acquired either directly
or by making arrangements with other federal departments or agencies.
More generally, the issue of climate change awareness and uptake may pose a barrier to
mainstreaming efforts. Before climate change is broadly considered in our day-to-day
business, there needs to be a basic understanding of the subject and an appreciation for
how it affects the mandates of our respective organizations. In many cases, this could
require awareness building and education.
It may be necessary to incorporate climate change formally into risk assessment and
management, and other decision-making processes to ensure that it is considered. This
could be particularly true for those working in policy analysis and development where
there may be a disconnect from the science and supporting information.
Assessing and evaluating invasive species risk over the long term will likely require
additional technical inputs and confront several institutional barriers. These needs and
challenges are summarized below.
14
Scientific Needs and Considerations
Institutional Challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Global or regional climate model
Climate data availability and quality (for
regional models)
Statistical downscaling (for global
models)
Detailed knowledge of organism (for
eco-physiological models)
Uncertainty
Monitoring
Climate change awareness
Expertise (climate and technical)
Access to data
Risk assessment time and staff
Consideration by policy staff/experts
Lack of long-term decision-making
processes and approaches
15
6. Conclusions and Next Steps
Climate change has yet to be incorporated into most invasive species risk assessment
and risk management work conducted within the federal government. A recent report
from the Environmental Law Institute notes that the United States is in a similar position
(EPA, 2008). The range of established species may expand or shift as the climate
changes, which could increase the risks in currently affected areas and render new areas
vulnerable to adverse economic, social, and environmental impacts. It is important to
examine these factors when conducting risk assessments to ensure that the proper
mitigation and adaptation options can be evaluated. It will also be important to assess
long-term risk when contemplating the intentional introduction of an alien species to
determine if the changing climate could support invasive traits in a species that poses
little threat under current conditions.
In terms of approach, the integration of climate change into a given risk assessment
would require the identification and evaluation of risks using at least two sets of climate
data – current and projected (>20 years). This will provide insight into possible changes
over time both in terms of geography and magnitude, which can be very informative in
developing short- and long-term policy responses and adaptive management strategies.
From a technical perspective, some issues will need to be resolved in terms of selecting
the appropriate tools and models for obtaining information on projected climate
conditions and the associated interactions with the organism in question (or its hosts or
vectors). As with many of the parameters considered in a risk assessment, issues with
respect to uncertainty and data availability associated with the climate change inputs will
need to be addressed.
Institutional challenges will also need to be addressed to ensure that climate change is
considered in assessing and managing invasive species risk. Many of these challenges are
related to capacity and awareness within federal organizations. It would appear that
departments may need to examine issues of expertise, time demands, and general
understanding of climate change and its implications for the mainstreaming of climate
change considerations into risk assessment processes to take place.
16
Notes
1
In the context of adaptation, mainstreaming refers to the integration of adaptation considerations (or
climate risks) into policies, programs, and operations at all levels of decision making. The goal is to make
the adaptation process a component of existing decision making and planning frameworks (Bo, 2005).
2
Stachowicz et al. (2002); Lake and Leishman (2004), from IPCC WGII.
3
The report can be consulted for further information (NRCan, 2008).
4
Information from USGS (2008) and GLU (2008).
5
Downscaling is a method for obtaining high-resolution climate or climate change information from
relatively coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs). Typically, GCMs have a resolution of 150-300
km by 150-300 km. Many impact models require information at scales of 50 km or less, so statistical
downscaling methods are needed to estimate the smaller-scale information (UNFCCC, 2004).
6
IPCC (2007: Appendix 1: Glossary).
17
References
Note: All URLs were confirmed as of August 2008.
Bo, Lim. 2005. Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing
Strategies Policies and Measures. United Nations Development Programme.
Canada, CFIA (Canadian Food Inspection Agency). 2007. “Gypsy Moth - Lymantria
dispar.” Fact sheet.
<http://www.inspection.gc.ca/english/plaveg/pestrava/lymdis/lymdise.shtml>.
Canada, CFS (Canadian Forest Service). 2007. “Gypsy Moth.” Fact sheet.
<http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/factsheets/gypsy-moth>.
Canada, NRCan (Natural Resources Canada, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
Division. 2008. From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007.
<http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/toc_e.php>.
GLSC (Great Lakes Science Center) of the U.S. Geological Survey. 2008. “Zebra Mussel.”
Great Lakes Science Centre. “Zebra Mussel”
<http://www.glsc.usgs.gov/main.php?content=research_invasive_zebramussel&title=I
nvasive%20Invertebrates0&menu=research_invasive_invertebrates>.
GLU (Great Lakes United). 2008. “Twenty Years of the Zebra Mussel: Facts and Figures.”
<http://www.glu.org/english/invasive_species/zebramussel/zm_facts.pdf>.
IPCC WGII (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II: Climate
Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Lake, J.C., and M.R. Leishman. 2004. Invasion Success of Exotic Plants in Natural
Ecosystems: The Role of Disturbance, Plant Attributes and Freedom from
Herbivores. Biol. Conserv. P. 117, 215-226.
Stachowicz, J.J., J.R. Terwin, R.B. Witlatch, and R.W. Osman. 2002. Linking Climate
Change and Biological Invasions: Ocean Warming Facilitates Nonindigenous
Species Invasions. P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 99, 15497-15500.
Thormann, Markus N. 2008. Climate Change Implications on the Establishment and
Expansion of Invasive Alien Species in Canada. Canadian Food Inspection Agency:
Ottawa.
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). 2004. “3.1.2
Climate Downscaling Techniques.”
<http://unfccc.int/files/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/
methods_and_tools_for_assessment/application/pdf/downscaling.pdf>.
18
US EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency). 2008. “Effects of Climate
Change on Aquatic Invasive Species and Implications for Management and Research.”
<http://www.elistore.org/reports_detail.asp?ID=11277>.
19
Appendix 1 – Workshop Agenda
INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO
INVASIVE SPECIES RISK ASSESSMENT/RISK MANAGEMENT
A Workshop Sponsored by the Policy Research Initiative
and the Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Government Conference Centre – 2 Rideau Street – Colonel By Room
Objectives
To create awareness of the impact of climate change on invasive species and how
climate change considerations can be integrated into invasive species Risk Assessment
(RA) / Risk Management (RM) work within the federal government by:
•
Increasing our awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation.
•
Identifying key climate change considerations with respect to invasive species.
•
Exploring how these considerations could be integrated into current RA/RM
approaches.
Road Map
08:00
A.
08:30
Coffee
GETTING STARTED/CONTEXT
Welcome/Purpose
Process Review
•
•
09:00
09:30
20
Facilitator
How we will work together
Introductions
Background on Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation
Jacinthe Lacroix
(Environment Canada)
Climate Change Considerations for Invasive Species
Markus Thormann
(University of Alberta)
Open Forum – Q&A
•
09:45
Bernard Cantin (PRI)
Ian Campbell (CFIA)
Questions of clarification
Discussion
1. What were the key messages?
2. What are the key climate change considerations?
10:15
B.
10:30
Health Break
CLIMATE CHANGE AND RA/RM
Lessons Learned: Mountain Pine Beetle
Jacques Régnière – Canadian Forest Service
Open Forum – Q&A
•
Questions of clarification
11:15
Discussion
1. How did CFS integrate climate change into its RA/RM approach?
2. To what degree do your current RA/RM approaches consider climate change?
12:00
Lunch (provided)
C.
INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO RA/RM
13:00
Case Study – West Nile Virus
13:30
Group Exercise
• Based on a RA/RM approach that includes
o Step 1 - Risk identification
o Step 2 - Risk evaluation
Anne Morin (PRI)
1. How are climate considerations incorporated into the risk assessment?
2. What will we need to incorporate climate change considerations?
14:30
Health Break
14:45
Group Exercise Continued
o Step 3 - Risk Control
15:15
Discussion of Case Study
16:00
Next Steps
•
Facilitator
Bernard Cantin (PRI)
Where to from here?
Wrap Up / Evaluation / Closure
16:30
Adjourn
21
Appendix 2 – Participant List
NAME / NOM
JOB TITLE / TITRE
ORGANIZATION / ORGANISME
Josée Arbique
Gestionnaire
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Edward Black
Senior Advisor, Aquaculture
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Ian Campbell
Director
Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Bernard Cantin
Senior Policy Research Officer
Projet de recherche sur les politiques
Lesley Cree
A/National Manager
Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Heather Danielson
Science Advisor
Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Kirsten Finstad
Senior Science Advisor
Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Harvey Hill
Manager
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Jacinthe Lacroix
Conseiller scientifique principal,
Changements climatiques
Environnement Canada
Paul Lyon
Policy Analyst
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Anne Morin
Policy Research Officer
Policy Research Initiative
Holly Palen
Policy Analyst
Canadian Forest Service
Jacques Régnière
Chercheur scientifique
Centre de foresterie des Laurentides
Peter Reinecke
Policy Research Officer
Policy Research Initiative
Don Rivard
Parks Canada
Andrea Sissons
Senior Advisor Environmental
Quality
Plant Health Risk Assessor
Marcus Thormann
Professor
University of Alberta
Sima Vyas
Animal Health Science Advice
Officer
Canadian Food Inspection Agency
David Welch
Head, Environmental Quality
Parks Canada
Brent Larson
Standards Officer
International Plant Protection Convention
Warren Wilson
Facilitator
The Intersol Group Inc.
22
Canadian Food Inspection Agency